The Trump Administration: News & Analysis

An American journalist remarks that the so-called ‘customs duties’ attributed to other countries have no basis in fact, but are simply a proportion of the US deficit with those countries. Trump's deputy press secretary replies that this is not true, presenting a formula that seems complex... but only confirms that this is indeed the calculation.
 
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Le Monde has just done an article on the subject, and the calculations are all wrong. They divide trade deficits by export volumes! And in the concrete examples they include taxes such as vat, which apply to all goods. In short, complete nonsense!
 
Le Monde has just done an article on the subject, and the calculations are all wrong. They divide trade deficits by export volumes! And in the concrete examples they include taxes such as vat, which apply to all goods. In short, complete nonsense!
You can ask ChatGPT how to reduce America's Trade Deficit yesterday and it would give same methodology Orange Man used.

This is madness.
 
The malice is much deeper and has a racial angle....... These tarrifs will hit India hard. Dollar has become a weapon. Trade in Non Dollar currency will only going to increase in future. New World multipolar world order is here.
 
Le Monde has just done an article on the subject, and the calculations are all wrong. They divide trade deficits by export volumes! And in the concrete examples they include taxes such as vat, which apply to all goods. In short, complete nonsense!

The tariffs are meant to bring countries to the table where the US holds the advantage, unlike before when trade continued as is and countries could use delaying tactics.
 
The malice is much deeper and has a racial angle....... These tarrifs will hit India hard. Dollar has become a weapon. Trade in Non Dollar currency will only going to increase in future. New World multipolar world order is here.

The tariffs do not impact India as much. There are no tariffs on some goods exports like pharma, energy, semiconductors, and some metals like copper and bullion. And services seems to have been kept out of the trade war for now.

The higher tariffs on China and Vietnam benefits India which is facing far lower tariffs in comparison.

Less spending money in the US can impact remmittances and service industry contracts though.

Anyway, the direct impact on India is just 0.5% of yearly GDP growth. But negotiations can reverse it via massive American investments that can counter higher prices from other competing countries, liek Tesla's entry into India.
 
Le Monde has just done an article on the subject, and the calculations are all wrong. They divide trade deficits by export volumes! And in the concrete examples they include taxes such as vat, which apply to all goods. In short, complete nonsense!

Trump's plan is hardcore. Push the stock market down, moving money from assets to treasury bonds, lowering interest rates for refinancing their debt. Retaliatory tariffs force American farmers to sell to the domestic market thereby creating a deflationary pressure. And WTI oil price has now gone below $60, overall energy prices have been falling. And large companies are planning massive investments into the US to escape tariffs, so temporary job losses now will translate into future job creation momentum.

In the meantime DOGE reduces spending, further reducing the inflation rate, which could bring down the prime rate.
 
The financial markets are feeling the pinch after the first tariffs announced by the Trump administration came into force. How will investors respond to this correction? Patrice Geoffron looks at the short- and medium-term outlook.

Test of strength or proof of weakness? The unbelievable avalanche of new tariffs introduced by the Trump administration has rekindled a recurring debate about American influence in the world. Donald Trump, president of the world's leading economic and military power, justifies these measures with a rhetoric of decline: ‘Our country has been plundered, ransacked, raped and devastated’. In this way, Trump II claims to be ‘liberating’ his country from an international system that was initiated by the United States in the post-war period and has been widely supported ever since. The instant result: 3 April 2025 is one of the ‘top 30’ worst days for the S&P 500 since its inception, with losses close to those recorded in March 2020, and the risk of recession is estimated at 60% by JP Morgan (whereas Biden left the economy growing by 2.8% in 2024).

A possible return to stagflation

To determine the response strategy for the rest of the world, and the European Union in particular, it is important to consider the poison that this rupture represents for the US economy itself and to anticipate its effects. The impending return of stagflation (mediocre growth + inflation) is a pattern thought to have been eradicated in the most advanced economies since the twentieth century (as strange as the current return of a measles epidemic across the Atlantic). The Yale Budget Lab estimates that the new tariff package could lead to a 2.3% increase in consumer prices in the United States in the short term, representing an average additional annual cost of $3,800 per household.

Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell does not rule out the possibility that these tariffs could have lasting effects beyond 2025. American companies that depend on foreign components or finished products will either have to absorb the extra costs, pass them on to consumers or reorganise their supply chains, which will take time and considerable investment. Ironically, the oil and gas industry is concerned about the effect of the 25% tax on steel imports, which will automatically drive up the cost of drilling and transport equipment. Given that the macroeconomic shock is dragging down the price of black gold (down $15 since the inauguration of President Trump), the ‘drill, baby, drill’ scenario is not looking good, with rising costs and falling end prices.

An incentive to wait and see

Admittedly, Trump and his team are presenting the shock as a bad moment whose worst is over. This should be seen as a form of wishful optimism, since the fog will take time to clear (if it does not turn to chaos, as it did in 2008), and the shift that has taken place can only encourage companies and households to adopt a wait-and-see attitude. Especially since, for households, the decline in the stock market has a direct impact on the value of pension funds and retirement accounts such as 401(k)s and IRAs, which are heavily invested in equities.

After the ‘blood and tears’, the Trump administration points to the possibility of long-term benefits, such as the repatriation of manufacturing industries, which would restore America's supposedly lost greatness. However, since the rules no longer have much value (whether in terms of international law, investment protection, competition law, etc.), investors could flee in the face of the acute country risk that the United States now presents.
 
Do you think that India could be an autonomous strategic pole and play a leading role in bringing together a group of countries that refuse to align themselves with one of the two major blocs, the United States and China?

And if so, do you think that closer cooperation as an equal partner with Europe could be envisaged in this perspective?
 
Do you think that India could be an autonomous strategic pole and play a leading role in bringing together a group of countries that refuse to align themselves with one of the two major blocs, the United States and China?

Yes. We have made our economy quite resilient to shocks in the West due to our lower exposure to trade. We do have weaknesses due to some exposure and our dependence on foreign energy, but they will not crumble our macroeconomic position like it will others.

A stable/strong currency (5 years), large economy (10 years), and sovereign and independent military capabilities (15 years) will enable the birth of a new strategic pole.

At the very least, India will independently have the strength to lead a NAM 2.0 with the support of equally strong (EU, ASEAN) or somewhat strong (Mexico, Brazil etc) like-minded partners.

And if so, do you think that closer cooperation as an equal partner with Europe could be envisaged in this perspective?

It will depend on how the EU plans on playing the game. Respecting India's sovereignty will be paramount, and that doesn't exist today. The EU likes interfering in India's local politics, illegally I should add. The EU prefers to work with Congress with the aim of suppressing India's majority while propping up India's minority while censuring the BJP.

And some day, with sufficient diplomatic and financial clout obtained, BJP will start interfering in the EU in revenge, so the EU needs to figure out how they want the relationship to proceed. Equal partnership will not work out if the EU plays favorites.

The EU will also have to contend with ASEAN and the African Union, even they have their complaints.

Other than that, India has to deal with both China and America in the long term, and needs all the help it can get.
 
Do you think that India could be an autonomous strategic pole and play a leading role in bringing together a group of countries that refuse to align themselves with one of the two major blocs, the United States and China?

Right now our focus is to capitalise on the massive & by the looks of it , irreconcilable differences on trade between China & its proxies like Vietnam among other members of the ASEAN on the one & hand & the US on the other hand .

The EU seems to be fence sitting regarding China. In fact Macron has gone on record earlier asking for an independent EU policy on China. How & why exactly is it that the EU is seeking reconciliation with China is beyond me or us out here ?

Your economy wasn't in a good shape even otherwise as the world emerged from the Wuhan virus pandemic & before you realise it , Russia invades Ukraine & the EU shoots itself in the foot regarding banning Oil & Natural Gas purchases from Russia & you're on the verge of a recession.

To make matters worse China's out gunning western companies in China earlier & now across the world. To that extent the US recognised the danger & banned Chinese EV entry in to the US market along with other items like solar panels etc.

However, the EU is still welcoming of China's trade.The best course of action would be for the EU to co ordinate policies with the US irrespective how mugh you guys despise Trump be it on Russia , on China , on trade & especially on Taiwan.

This is important . Once the above mentioned issues are thrashed out , one way or another , you can then pursue a policy independent of the US


And if so, do you think that closer cooperation as an equal partner with Europe could be envisaged in this perspective?

The EU as it does exist in the shape & form it is in today , isn't in our interests either from the political , the economic or security perspective. Ideally if the US Deep State wants the EU to dissolve & is working actively for it ,we ought to render as much assistance we can to the former.

We've a existential civilizational war coming up in the latter half of this century , likely earlier . We need a completely neutral world at that point in time . To win that war we need to ensure the US , EU , the Arab world & China are de fanged.

To that extent the US & China will cancel each other out over Taiwan. As far as the EU goes , it'd be Russia over Ukraine & with oil losing its primacy to Li ion batteries , the Arabs will face difficult days ahead along with a huge drop in influence..

You may not like these views but as a famous line goes & keeps recurring in The Godfather series - tell him it was only business , nothing personal.
 

Crazy drop there. 64%.

Let's see how round-tripping manages Chinese exports. And we don't know how things will look like after the 90-day moratorium for the rest.

India's trade negotiations could likely set the stage for Trump's deals with other countries. Modi moved fast while others were left scratching their heads all confused.

An interim deal could be in the works too.

Negotiations are going on with the UK and EU as well.

Sticking issues: Automobiles, diary, wines, and some regulatory barriers.

Services is a major sticking point with the EU, apart from a whole bunch of regulatory barriers for goods.

Sticking issues: Whiskey, automobiles, and pharma.
 
We may sign the Free trade deal with the UK but there is no chance of the same happening with the EU, the bureaucrats sitting in brussels think of themselves as the superior species and like to dictate and lecture on how the deal should happen. Just go through this article to see their asburd demands:

 
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