While there is zero chance the US will not intervene in Taiwan, there is a high risk it will lose its stomach within a few weeks.
China has for most part built up its industrial strength to the point where the US can no longer operate under the guarantee of technological superiority. This puts the US in a point where a weak leader might fold instead of taking the long hard road of Total War.
Unrestricted infiltration of the US has gone on for so long, Chinese commentators boast about being able to field sabotage teams across the US. This will cause the US to tie down significant resources to secure its own country while also maintaining its posture abroad.
With advances in their space program, the Chinese can now force the US into accepting a detente on space warfare - else both sides work blind with no satellites and have to deal with insane amounts of space debris for decades to come.
If things come to conventional warfare, USAF concedes Chinese advances in air defense mean they can no longer guarantee their tier 1 stealth fighters can move unmolested. Even a short air campaign can put a noticeable dent in the USAF inventory.
Its similar for its Navy's carriers - China can deny them entry into areas unless they want to risk attacks by swarms of drones, carrier killer missiles. China will happily trade its arsenal of drones to exhaust/overwhelm the carrier defense systems if it can score a supercarrier. This is a feat even fiction writers deem unfeasible. If China scores a carrier the impact will be felt quickly across the globe.
The US financial health is worse than a Delhi resident's gut health after the winter wedding season. It can ill afford an arms build up to replace losses a war with China would impose. The Chinese on the other hand with their much tighter control on all aspects of their society are better prepared to absorb economic pain, suppress civil dissent in a conflict situation. In this aspect with its tight control on media, even a few wins will net a PR windfall allowing the regime to ride out a short war.
TLDR - US under Trump does not have the stomach or the wallet for a big fight.
Caveat - If carrot top is booted out and the US digs in, all bets are off.
Short conflict - advantage China, the longer the war drags the quicker Chinese strengths erode.
*** On India - China ***
@_Anonymous_ - China does not want to create a big mess with India even more so now when its getting shut out of the US market. They need India as a market.
But in case they do come for India, my opinion like previously mentioned stays that it will be a short and rapid conflict fought in multiple dimensions.
Chinese leadership views India as (forgive me) a boisterous and loudmouthed neighbor who does not have the strength to back up its threats. Their India campaign will focus on rapid blows each aimed with precision. Hit power generation, communication, banking, Internet - basically bring the country to a halt while their army tries to secure specific objectives rather than sweeping territorial gains.
India's options in this regard remain limited. We are dependent on imports on practically all our major systems with a few exceptions. Its the same in munitions. The impact is clear - Chinese can replace their losses much easier than we can. Western Aid will be few and far in between now that the US has made it clear it doesn't want to fund long foreign wars and the EU is basically holding the bag for the Ukraine war.
Trump's Ukraine response shows West's blank cheques are not infinite. The same message I had tried to convey to your dear Rice / Irish themed friend but back then he was like a teen girl in love, writing long odysseys proclaiming his unrequited love for the west on heart shaped heavily perfumed pink stationery.
On the Nuclear front, in today's context its as likely to happen as it is for Salman Khan to deliver a movie that makes sense and has good production values.
Chinese writings from the last decade suggested that in case the shit goes south well enough for a strategic response, they will go after Mumbai first for its BARC, DRDO, Navy installations and due to Mumbai being the financial capital followed by New Delhi and Kolkata (to paralyze India in the North East). Other targets might be the industrial cluster of Chennai and the IT hub of Bangalore for their economic value.
India's response will likely be to solve Beijing and Shanghai's parking troubles and also rezone most of the coastal industrial belt to flatlands and also consider taking the Three Gorges Damn which will likely cause the CCP to go apeshit but they will have their hands full for a very long time. A kind of final FU from India before the inevitable Chinese counter strike.
But for now this remains an academic exercise. For China, India is an annoying pest kept in check by propping up the pork hating cousin chasers but a necessary evil as a destination for Chinese goods. A (in their eyes) minor hiccup in Galwan disrupted trade long enough, a serious conflict will shut down the Indian market to China for years to come.
