Russia offered long range systems after we joined MTCR. We just didn't take it up due to lack of interest.
Putin to offer India mega undersea boost
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Russia offered long range systems after we joined MTCR. We just didn't take it up due to lack of interest.
The 6 Kilos are coming with only 10 years of service life. It's indeed a gap-filler, meant to be introduced 3 years after contract versus 7-10 years for a new sub. But the MoD's unlikely to go for it due to the ongoing political issues even though the brass insists the subs will be more advanced than Scorpenes. The war has put the Russian deal on the backburner so it's unlikely to go through anyway.
We need the third Akula though. A lone Akula isn't enough to train both SSBN and SSN crews.
Waiting for the French guys, in 3, 2, 1
10 years service life isn't much, as you say, it's a gap filler, It sounds like they come with decent tech
Australia will get 10+ on their Collins refit, which is a similar timespan and 20 on the secondhand Virginia
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The reasons for that being the Kilo has a much larger displacement, comes with more advanced and easily upgradeable Indian electronics, and its current weapons inventory is more advanced and set to get better pretty soon.
We are moving on to better sub designs, with 3 new larger Scorpenes and the new German sub.
We are in the process of upgrading 3 of our existing Kilos anyway, so the Russians want to add 3 more of their own decommissioned Kilos and sell them to us, taking our total back to the original 10. We lost 1 sub to an accident, decommissioned another, and gifted 1 to Myanmar.
The Kilo is a double-hulled boat with inferior electronics to the Chinese Yuan/Pakee Hangor class (with which it incidentally shares many design similarities). After the Gorshkov/Vikramaditya experience, we shouldn't be touching refurbished Russian gear with a barge pole, imo.
For $3b, we should be settling for nothing less than a late-model Yasen on lease.
The Kilos we are upgrading are carrying almost the same stuff we have on Arihant and gonna get on our SSNs. They are like the MKI MLU. Russian subs have always carried the Panchendriya suite, which has undergone multiple modernizations since the 70s.
Plus the new Kilos will have a few more perks like the ability to carry Brahmos M and fire from all 6 torpedo tubes, unlike most subs with just 2.
Only the MMI is inferior to the one on the Scorpene due to the Kilo's old age. All the core capabilities are better. It's because of the Kilos that P-75I and P-76 are aimed for a similar class compared to Scorpene.
The real cost of the Akula is less than $3B. The first one was around $700M, the second one was slightly below $1B, and the third one is probably around $1.5B. All overpriced relative to Russia's prices, but they are worth the price. The rest of the money is for servicing, maintenance, and some other secret contracts buried in the total. If we are to buy the Yasen class, which is unlikely at this point 'cause of our own program, it's going to have to be for operational purposes and requires a minimum of 2.
It's the same as the Su-57/AMCA debate. By the time we get them, we will have moved on to our own designs. Just like Su-57, I was all for the Yasen for a 2030 operational service. But just like Su-57, any Yasen we will get will happen after 2035, which defeats the purpose of the stopgap. A stopgap is meant to bridge a 10-15 year gap for such systems, not merely 5 years.
Akula works fine as a primary training sub + secondary operations. Even if we go for Yasen, we will still need the third Akula for training future SSN crews, including the Yasen's crew. And like AMCA, the impact of our SSNs will only be felt in the 2040s.
It's true that our Kilos have served us well. They've been used to test a range of Indian ESM, battery, C4I, sonar and SLCM tech. But Russian credentials wrt to naval mro are highly questionable. Kuznetsov is a shining example of that.
Without AIP, the sub is limited to coastal defence. We have better alternatives for that today which weren't available earlier. For example, Jalkapi XL-UUV and midget sub designs from MDL and L&T. Those progs should be nurtured to form the base of our P-76 design.
Imo, we should not be buying Kilo any more than we should be buying the Talwar class. If P-77 is based on the Yasen design template, we could legitimately ask for one boat on lease before the the mid-2030s for training purposes. The cost will be substantial though.
Without AIP, the sub is limited to coastal defence. We have better alternatives for that today which weren't available earlier. For example, Jalkapi XL-UUV and midget sub designs from MDL and L&T. Those progs should be nurtured to form the base of our P-76 design.
Imo, we should not be buying Kilo any more than we should be buying the Talwar class. If P-77 is based on the Yasen design template, we could legitimately ask for one boat on lease before the the mid-2030s for training purposes. The cost will be substantial though.
With the russian economy being what it is -- 1.5% gdp with a 10% inflation on a war economy -- they know collapse is coming without some cash injection from India. Now is the time to push for joint venture and joint production on latest gen tech. Not obsolete about to be scraped junk.
As Saurav Jha points out, we have multiple ongoing co-dev progs with the Russians, including SFDR motor tech. Those should be prioritsed along with spares and support for existing inventory with the three services. But we must refuse stuff like BMP-3, Ka-226, Armata (under FRCV) that Russia has been pitching. AK-203 was another junk item that we ended up buying over indigenous alternatives like SSS Defence' P-72 AR.
The Kilos are not for the long term, most of the ones operational today will be retired well before 2035. So if we go for 3 more, we will have 6 operational until 2040 instead of 3. And I don't think all our new Scorpenes, P-75I, and P-76 will arrive by then.
We are only guaranteed 6 Scorpenes after 2035. Everything else does not even exist on paper today. Even the Type 209s will be gone.
We basically have 11 subs that need to be replaced and 3 Scorpenes + 6 P-75I + 2 SSNs are supposed to do that between 2030 and 2040, and we need 8 on or before 2035, including the 2 SSNs, fat chance of that happening. Even if it all works out, 11 + 6 gives us only 17 submarines. But those 6 additional Kilos will help us maintain a force of 23 in 2035, or more realistically, 20 subs, as they are replaced by 4-6 P-76 and 2 SSNs between 2035-40.
Actual availability would likely be low, esp since these are refurbs. I'd prefer we spend the money on extending the Kalvari B2 line by another 3 for a total of 6. More bang for the buck.
Imo, we must expedite P-77 and simultaneously develop a conventional SSK version, (a la Shortfin Barracuda) The economies of scale this provides will reduce unit costs and reduce risk across both progs. MDL reportedly has enough capacity to build 11 subs at a time. Rope in L&T and our build times will be much faster.
For context, the Talwar B3 hulls were all laid down since before the start of the war in Ukraine. They were supposed to be available quickly but got delayed for many years. Plus, tech wise they are far behind ships in the 4000t class like the French FDI frigate.
If anything, we should SLEP our existing Kilos to hold the line until Kalvari B2 + P-75I arrives.
IMO both the indigenous SSKs & the Project 76 I would be launched around the same time which is somewhere closer to the end of this decade & if not the latter , the former most certainly would.
The 3 additional Scorpenes would start arriving between 2035-40 by which time all the Kilos & Type 209s we have will be retired mostly between 2030-35.
So what are we looking at by 2040 w.r.t SSKs. 6+3 Scorpenes & the first of the Project 76 I + indigenous SSKs.
As far as the Project 77 Alpha goes anytime between 2035-40 we can expect 2 nos & possibly between 2030-35 hopefully we should see 2-4 hulls laid down which should materialize in a decade from then.
It's far from ideal but it's certainly much better than doing nothing or as little as possible , which seems to be the guiding philosophy of 56" & the place holder of a Raksha Mantri.
The 4 Type 209s are currently going a SLEP. Assuming a service life of 15 years, they should see us through most of the 2030s (hulls in better shape than Kilo). The last of our Kilo were inducted in 2000 so we may be able to keep atleast 3-4 in service until 2035.
Iirc, the 1st P-77 is expected to arrive in 2035, followed by the 2nd one a year or two later. Combined with the 2 Arihant S4 stretch variants that should commission later this decade, things should balance out a bit. Granted strategic missile subs are not for warfighting but the numbers go up. Kalvari B2 should start deliveries around that time too.
If we can validate a conventional propulsion package for P-77 form factor, we could concievably have a parallel SSK production line by the mid-2030s as well. Of course, that would depend on how far along the SSN design is.
Refurbs are like newly built, they will have their normal availability.
Expedite them or not, any new sub program will deliver only in the 7th to 10th year from contract. All three new sub designs will take time to begin construction. P-77's construction is expected after 2030, P-76 could take a bit longer, so it's best not to expect anything until 2037-40 from these 2. P-75I will be slightly faster, but by only 2-3 years as long as construction begins by 2028. Scorpene was expected in 2031 with a 2024 signature, fat chance of that too. We will be lucky to get Scorpene from 2033 and P-75I from 2035 followed by SSNs from 2037 and P-76 by 2040.
Otoh, the Russians need only 2 years to completely refit a Kilo.
There's no relation between Talwar and Kilo. And why compare Talwar with a new design? There's no relation there either. Russia's been building new Kilos for itself and inducting 1 every year and will continue building new ones for many more years.
Putin's visit at the end of the year could see some military deals being signed, and this upgrade deal has been in the works for many years.
You forgot about S5 which according to Parthu sir will done even before P77. S5 with K5 SLBM will solidify our deterrence against China and leave no doubt in their minds about our capability to strike back. Only weakness is air launched nukes. Imo we need to make a smaller version of LRLACM or even fit LRLACM in current form in our Su 30 MKI to launch nuclear strikes. Mirage 2000 and Jaguars are getting too old and obsolete not to mention our unguided nuclear glide bombs are not fit to provide a robust air leg of the trident.
3 years is more like it (+ trails and transit time to and from). HSL would probably be able to do it faster with OEM support.
The point I'm making (wrt Talwar) is Russian defence production lines/ supply chain is stretched thin. Delays are par for the course. They'll obviously prioritize domestic needs over int'l orders.
In fact, the Russians are even offloading some production to Indian cos (Adani- Igla). Could fill Russian forces orders in due course. (just like Israeli orders for Hermes-900 were supplied by Adani)
Brand new subs would provide much better roi in terms of safety and tech (7 blade skewed prop vs 6, better nav system) than older gen ones. But the time to order them is now gone.
I have no insight on why Indian Navy hasn't went ahead with the planned 2nd overhaul of INS Sindhughosh, and is instead retiring it.
But if I were to suspect, exorbitant cost, timeline of delivery and and capabilities of the Russian OEM to actually carry out this endeavor during the current times, comes to my mind.
I just hope we go for a 16-cell VLS load out on S5 vs 12 (as per reports by Sandeep Unnithan). While Western navies (RN, for example) are also opting for fewer SLBMs on their next-gen boomers, we need to maximize ever inch of space on our much smaller S5 fleet.
You can be sure we have a classified stand-off AL option for n-delivery. Gravity bombs just won't cut it in our scenario.
They have excess capacity for submarines.
Yes, it will be a mix of Russian and Indian shipyards working together.
No relation to submarines.
Sure, but it's about saving time using what we are already doing. We have to upgrade 3 of our subs anyway, the Russians want to add 3 more subs to the line using their decommissioned hulls.