The IB along Sir Creek runs along the middle. Paxtan claims it runs further east of the IB . What that does is it affects the possession of the EEZ by several hundreds if not thousands of square kilometres if that demand is upheld.
This has resulted in an impasse. See what Fauji Foundation is indulging in there as probing measures to test our responses. It could also be diversionary tactics.
As far as restarting Operation Sindoor goes , if you look at the internal situation in Paxtan it has more or less returned to the same state it was before they launched what they did in Pahalgam & if not that then the situation is far worse than what it used to be.
I recall seeing one of several programs in the aftermath of the Pahalgam incident before Operation Sindoor was launched wherein Vivek Katju stated that the attack on Jafar Express & the casualties suffered by Fauji Foundation was blamed on Indian Black Ops directly by Munir who threatened retaliation.
He was of the opinion that should've rung alarm bells within our establishment forcing extra precautions on our side to prevent incidents like what happened in Pahalgam.
Another reason could be the rapidly deteriorating internal security in Paxtan which prompted the outrage in Pahalgam. Let's not forget the same Munir was DG ISI when Pulwama was undertaken.
There was no immediate provocation for that incident except if you check for what was happening around the same time in Paxtan's internal politics. Gen Bajwa was the CoAS & favoured reconciliation with India which Khansama was opposed to .
Was Pulwama undertaken to sabotage these overtures ? Was Bajwa in the loop for what subsequently transpired in Pulwama ? We get an inkling from the fact that Munir was transferred from the ISI to GHQ having served as DG ISI for a record 8 months , the shortest tenure of a DG ISI.
Ostensibly on the face of it , the reasons which came out then was there was a fallout between Khansama & Munir which led to the transfer. Off the record who knows ?!
Eventually Khansama was ousted , the Sharif's brought back to power , Bajwa retired after an extension ( or was it 2 ) & Munir was sworn in with 3 days left for his retirement after due consultations between the Sharif bros.
The term was set for 3 years which is due to expire towards the end of this November . Munir manipulated events by extending the term of the CoAS to 5 years from 3 vide an act of parliament passed towards the end of 2024 which means he's due for retirement in November 2027 .
The man is riding a tiger . As the internal situation deteriorates along with the economy & external relations with all its neighbours he's going to come under increasing pressure to either do something about it or to quit by his peers / subordinates within Fauji Foundation .
He doesn't seem the kind to go quietly into the night like Bajwa. So the urge to scratch the itch called India is very high although he knows the terrible price Paxtan would've to pay but safeguards his position or so he calculates.
It's either that or a case of explosive mangos in a plane a la Kana. Doesn't seem much of a choice when you're determined to be in charge but lack the political acumen or sagacity to do so .
I'd rather we ease Munir's dilemma by using these exercises to stage an incident in Sir Creek or the high seas where both PN & IN are exercising intensively using it as a pretext to unleash hell on Paxtan by first initiating a de capitation strike like the IDF undertook against Hezbollah & later Iran putting Munira & the top brass of PAF , PA & PN out of their collective miseries .
Far fetched ? Not when you consider that they'd be receiving advanced weaponry in the near future like the 8 nos Yuan class submarines which will be inducted any time now & other such platforms from Turkey , China , some European nations even the US perhaps what with their latest defence pact with KSA who'd bankroll these purchases .
Then there's our tryst with China scheduled towards the end of the decade where if we don't want to be caught in a pincer between China & Paxtan we need to move now though personally speaking I'd rather we get into a 2 front war & focus completely on the eastern front.
Gives us a casus belli to deal with Paxtan once we sort out the Chinese later. Also gives us the opportunity to work out a final solution for even if the state of Paxtan ceases to exist , the idea of Paxtan will continue long after the state has died.
That's a far more dangerous scenario IMO for that region will be a hot bed of radicalism , lawlessness , falling agricultural & economic output etc . In other words a Myanmar ¹⁰ with a NWP .
The way things are shaping up internally & in our immediate & extended neighborhood including BD , Myanmar & Afghanistan the last thing we need is another problem on our door steps else we'd be dealing with the fallout of this for the rest of the century .
Add to that the rapidly declining H TFR & the fact that Gerala , Assam possibly even WB is poised to become M majority in a time span ranging from 2 decades from the present to 4 decades & some of us will be witness to a perfect storm of internal & external disturbances meshing seamlessly.
And this isn't even factoring China. Just my weekly rant to provide food for thought for those similarly inclined.
Most people think we "suspended" the IWT coz of our policy of terror & water can't flow together. However that was merely a pretext to undo what is essentially a deeply unequal treaty whose continuation would have jeopardized Northern India .
North India is one of the most water stressed regions on the planet apart from pockets in other parts of the country especially in peninsular India or the Deccan. Paxtan is too , primarily because of their critical dependence on the Indus Water System .
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25 Countries, Housing One-Quarter of the Population, Face Extremely High Water Stress
New data on WRI's Aqueduct platform ranks the world's most water-stressed countries. One-quarter of the global population regularly use up their entire water supply.www.wri.org
We need to implement mandatory rain water harvesting , water recycling in all our Tier 1,2 , 3 & 4 cities on yesterday's basis. All coastal cities ought to go in for de salinated sea water treatment plants to make up for at least 50% if not more of their consumption in as short a time period as possible.
Equally drip irrigation must be made mandatory for crops with water guzzling crops banned in areas of high water stress like paddy cultivation in Punjab & sugar cane cultivation in Maharashtra. However there are considerable political risks to it , hence these moves ought to be graduated over the course of time.
Another reason we aren't going in for EV adoption on a war footing is coz like the rest of the world we don't wish to trade one dependency for another as far as energy goes. However this will have unintended consequences on our energy & water policies.
The original plan of breeding Thorium as a fuel for Thorium fired N reactors was to have taken care of running such massive de salination plants whose power requirements would be equally massive as envisaged by our planners in newly independent India led by Dr Bhabha onwards.
However given the slow progress we're making in this realm , it's anyone's guess when can we expect them . That power requirement can be offset by renewable energy like solar & wind to an extent. Unfortunately coal will also feature considerably in those plans.
The BSR & SMR couldn't have come at a better time for in addition to massive power requirements for the aforementioned activity we've also to cater to other power guzzling new ventures like Data Centers , new industrial set ups , massive urbanization etc. The key here is quick approvals followed by massive implementation.
Just to give you an idea of what the rest of the world is facing & how climate change along with water scarcity can trigger off events with deep political ramifications enough to upend the world order as we see it today , I'm linking a few documentaries on what the situation is in our immediate & extended neighborhood
& the solutions at hand .
Apart from political problems plaguing various parts of Asia which as I've pointed out before will see resolution one way or another by the end of next decade this one problem has the potential to have even more devastating consequences which wars being predicted in our part of the world will be unable to solve on a permanent basis.
Unfortunately there are simply far too many humans dependent on ever decreasing resources like potable water which will devastate many other parts of the world especially our part .
If we don't do what we're doing to Paxtan , we risk facing a civil war. Better fatalities on their side than ours. However this isn't going to end well especially when both countries are N powers .
Even assuming we along with like minded partners de fang them of N Weapons, we'd still be faced with a massive highly radicalised population with no productive work or resources to sustain themselves . All these issues will manifest itself in sectarian conflicts , religious conflicts , etc .
It's high time we start thinking in terms of the final solution for the other side is doing so in any case & since partition. And I'm not just referring to Paxtan here . BD is turning out to be a smaller yet more deadlier version of Paxtan.
More deadlier coz they've already anywhere between 30-60 million of their people settled here since independence across the country who've now intermingled with the local muslim population here. And that's not all , as BD keeps unravelling we'd be faced with unprecedented numbers trying to come across.
We'd be unable to prevent all of them & those that make it across will serve as footsoldiers to an ever growing 5th column of which what we saw in Delhi recently was only a small trailer.
We're in for massive conflicts for the rest of this century & it's coming at a time of a precipitous drop in our TFR making this an existential war . Make no mistake about that.
Just my 2 cent weekend rant.
Chalo , at least somebody is noticing what I've been trying to highlight for some time even if the conclusion seems hopelessly idealistic.




