Did USA prevail in Vietnam? Did USSR prevail in Afganisthan ??
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- Thread starter randomradio
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It all depends on GoI. If somebody like Mr Anthony becomes Def minister, even 2050 will be an optimistic target.
We are yet to be able to protect ourselves from their nukes. Both financially and psychologically.
The Indian public is not ready for the reality of nuclear war like the developed countries are.
Our modernization will take as long as China's in order to fructify. Modernizing the infantry is the most important here, which means standardizing and modernizing infantry gear with new software defined communications systems. Bringing the IAF up to full strength. Expanding the navy and introducing expeditionary capabilities. Not to mention all the other supporting capabilities like cyber warfare.
Where are the resources ? China can and will where as our game of catch up is dictated by a potential surge in our future economic growth and consequent attendant benefits that would be derived fur our armed forces . I'm sure I don't need to inform you on the fallacy of such wishful thinking .
My own two cents is that the argument that we will be able to achieve parity with the Chinese in our build up - the argument of our goals being different from the Chinese notwithstanding w.r.t the sheer nos of infantry , tanks , missiles , NW , BM , warships , FA , etc - is that the gulf will begin to widen . It may not be as yawning a charm as between the force levels of India and Pakistan , but it'd be significant . Whether it'd be significant enough to persuade the Chinese to initiate hostilities will be in known in less than 10 years from now . For the simple reason that after that ,a lot of equipment that are yet in various stages of the procurement process will begin to be inducted thereby blunting the edge that the Chinese enjoy today . However , with a few years of that they'd be on a different level altogether as the equipment they're planning for today will materialize around 2030-35 timelines . And so the race goes on .
Was Vietnam sponsoring Jihad and sending terrorists across to the US ? Ditto for Afghanistan Vis a Vis the SU.
These examples are proof of much smaller forces bringing super powers down to their knees. Pakisthan cannot win in a full scale war. But they can keep India occupied in asymmetric warfare for decades with little loss in money and manpower. Suits their agenda pretty well.
Those are also examples that these superpowers weren't confronted with an existentialist crisis . Their opponents were . Which is why they fought like they had nothing to lose . Had the superpowers concluded the same , there'd be no Vietnam or Afghanistan existing today .
Pakistan is in the throes of a similar existentialist crisis and unlike the former examples mostly of their own making , without any sign of a recognition of their condition ( at least outwardly ) .
Moreover , they've successfully drawn us bit by bit into what they perceive as their gambit .Where as we haven't really come to terms with that as well as with the fact as to what our response ought to be .
Hence your analogy doesn't hold true .
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We are not looking at parity in numbers with the Chinese. They can have 500 ships, but we can make do with 200. They can have 2000 fighter jets, we can make do with 1000. And so on.
I don't think that's an accurate way of looking at future emerging scenarios with a view to capacity build up . Conventional thinking holds that the Chinese have plenty of theatres of operations Vis a Vis us with s fairly limited one .
In case of a conflict , we are assuming that China won't bring its full capacity into play as it has other borders to defend.I don't think the Chinese are foolish enough to engage more than one nation at any given time . Besides they're the revanchist power in East Asia apart from their lackey NK. What this means is that they're the ones who are most likely to initiate & prosecute a war .
Any nation which goes to war in furtherance of its political objectives does so with a view to win . Is there any guarantee they will not bring their full power to bear on us in case of a conflict. If the answer is yes , how do we account for our modest incremental approach to building up capacity using fancy logic to justify our meagre resources fuelling such a modest and grossly inadequate build up when faced with China .
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China can't bring its full capacity to bear against India. The Chinese have way too many fronts so their forces will always have to be divided. The Chinese have set up threatre commands. So all the men and equipment will be restricted to operating within that command. They have a reserve command in the center which can reinforce the other main commands, but that would mean other commands would continue operating their own equipment. They will have contingency plans to transfer assets of course, but what this means is we will not be facing the entirety of the Chinese forces at any one time.
And then, the geography is way too complex. The PLAAF have to deal with the restrictions of the high altitude Tibetan airfields. PLAN have to deal with a lot of choke points. GF have to climb mountains, and they can't bring their tanks.
What looks like modest incremental capacity now will not look so modest by the 2030s. If we initiate LCA and Rafale MII alone, we will be making about 50-60 jets a year, not counting FGFA or even SE MII. And we will still have access to offshore production lines, like buying 36 more Rafales from Merignac. We are already thinking of having 2 SSK production lines (potentially) and 1 SSN line. Also 3 frigate lines, 1 destroyer line and 1 cruiser line. And we are not even in 2020 yet. And just like aircraft, we have access to offshore production lines for SSKs and frigates. Even if some things are delayed now, we will catch up because our funding will increase over time.
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The Chinese wouldn't be threatening us if they hadn't detected chinks in our armour and You know that . While your answer on what constitutes Chinese build up for the next two decades is appreciated it still doesn't answer my basic question of what if they throw all that they have against us . You've made out a case , straight out of our conventional thinking , as to why wouldn't they attempt that . Not how will we cope if they do and what will our plans be if they do .
50-60 AC per year ??? Seriously now ? There's no news of either the SE FA or the FGFA. Let's focus on what we have right now or what is firmly on the board for future procurement plans in terms of deliverables not potential ones which is what both the FGFA & SE is all about . Access to off shore lines wouldn't result in making up the numbers overnight . Not with our clumsy bureaucracy , vested interests and a raucous opposition along with an equally boisterous press - a fact you'd have to acknowledge as well .
Ditto with the additional SSK line. I'm not familiar with the naval build up , hence I'd take your word for it .But a cruiser line and 3 frigate lines ?! Yet we have just concluded a deal with Russia for 2+2 frigates of which 2 get made in Russia .
50-60 AC per year ??? Seriously now ? There's no news of either the SE FA or the FGFA. Let's focus on what we have right now or what is firmly on the board for future procurement plans in terms of deliverables not potential ones which is what both the FGFA & SE is all about . Access to off shore lines wouldn't result in making up the numbers overnight . Not with our clumsy bureaucracy , vested interests and a raucous opposition along with an equally boisterous press - a fact you'd have to acknowledge as well .
Ditto with the additional SSK line. I'm not familiar with the naval build up , hence I'd take your word for it .But a cruiser line and 3 frigate lines ?! Yet we have just concluded a deal with Russia for 2+2 frigates of which 2 get made in Russia .
The battlespace won't allow them to throw all they have. It's impossible. The same rule for us. The country with the best technology will win the air war.
50-60 is the minimum.
We already have 2 frigate lines in MDL and GRSE. 1 more will come up in the private sector. A cruiser design is coming up next.
As for SSK, MDL may win Scorpene again for P-75I also, unless the French participate with the Barracuda. Then we will either have a very long Scorpene line or one Scorpene and 1 more of a second type.
I guess we'd have to test our statements when war breaks out . However , the jury is still out on that one .
I'd take your post with a handful of salt .
The line for the frigate or destroyer may well be converted into the one making cruisers. Moreover , we've yet to see any firm commitment on a private sector like to build either frigate or destroyer.
Again , early days yet .Too early to be speculating .
It's still impossible.
You should read up on theatre commands. Particularly the US, since there's information available.
19 LCAs, 20 Rafale B/C, 20 Rafale-M. Or whatever will be chosen instead of Rafale. This is already set in stone.
And this is without considering SE and FGFA, which can bring the number to 32 to 36 more.
A line doesn't necessarily take up physical space in a linear fashion. Most of the ship is actually built elsewhere and then brought into the dry dock for assembly. And then the ship is floated out for fitting, that's when most of the work happens. So all that matters is the dry dock for our current level of infrastructure.
Nothing I have said right now is speculation.
They threaten because they got nothing. Why do NK do it to US? They found 'cracks'?
Your thinking is biased because you think China care only about us. If you take a look back at the threat perception from Chinese, India is not even in the top five. So throwing everything at us is impossible.
We already have two shipyards making destroyers and frigates with contemporary construction techniques.
We buy from Russia for commonality with already operational fleet. That contract will add Goa shipyard to the list of high end warship makers.
Private shipyards are not experienced and not necessarily needed because PSU shipyards are now competent enough.
For Ssks we have problems. There is a urgent need to finish P75I and make a new shipyard capable to build SSKs.
