Fortunately there is Indian time, this should allow to realize how the F-35 is a shit before India bought it.
IAF Chronicles - A side view of whats going on behind the closed doors in New Delhi
- Thread starter Aashish
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I think the IAF's idea is to replace the F-16/Gripen plans with the F-35. It won't affect Rafale. We still need a twin engine aircraft. It won't affect the IN either, but they can go for a more delayed program. Our squadron requirement is big enough to accommodate a lot of jets. We need nearly 30 squadrons of new aircraft on contract by 2035 to maintain 42 squadrons, not counting the IN's requirement of 10+ squadrons.
We are not as affected by logistics as the developed countries since our labour costs are very low. Infrastructure costs are pretty much the same. If we pay $1B for a Rafale base, we may end up paying the same for a F-35 base. The cost of setting up detachments will also be similar, so it won't make much of a difference. With the exchange rate difference between euro and dollar going back to earlier levels, it will only be a numbers game. Take away some Rafale numbers and replace with F-35 at very similar costs.
As for the Russian angle, it depends. The Russians won't mind because they trust our ability to keep stuff like this secret. But the Americans will mind. So I don't expect the Americans coming out with a lot of ToT. And that's also why I don't expect the aircraft numbers to be more than 40-60, all delivered from American factories, like the Rafale GTG. But if they agree to 126 jets through MII, then it will kill SE MII.
None of the aircraft named will affect FGFA. FGFA numbers will slowly trickle in from the beginning, like 4 a year, then 8 to 12 a year, then at best 16 a year until 2040 or so. Like the MKI did.
The F-35 won't affect the Rafale program no matter how many carrots LM dangles in front of us. But a classified briefing will be welcome because IAF will have the foremost knowledge of all high end aircraft in the world save for the J-20.
The knowledge from F-35, Rafale and FGFA will help shape the AMCA.
Frankly , in the light of Aashish's post , it seems like shadow boxing . I doubt the F-35 is a serious contender as a replacement for the FA's we'd be retiring soon and for which the F-16/Gripens are being considered.There may be yet place for the F-35 but not in the immediate future .
While we're on the topic , what with the reports by Aashish of the process made by the Safranised Kaveri , won't this be a shot in the arm for the Mk2 project , thus sticking to the original plan of LCA / Rafale/ FGFA/AMCA ?
For all you know it maybe another attempt at bargaining with the French for the second tranche of Rafales.
By requesting for a classified briefing, you are basically making a commitment to purchase. Meaning, only those who are going to buy the aircraft will be given a classified briefing. So I suspect the IAF will make a 2 squadron commitment before the briefing. Even if the aircraft is below par for our needs, it is guaranteed to be better than the F-16/Gripen. If the aircraft is better than expected, then we can look forward to more orders through license production, kinda like what the Japanese are doing. This second tranche of orders may happen 10 years later, that's so far ahead.
As you know, there are three projects: SE MII, TE MII and FGFA. All three are independent from each other and have separate requirements. The F-35 will either kill the SE MII or simply sit between SE and TE MII in small numbers. If someone presents a better TEF than the Rafale for TE MII by the time a tender starts, then even Rafale will sit between SE and TE alongside the F-35 in small numbers.
This has happened before. We bought M-2000 and Mig-29 with the intention to produce them and instead settled for license production of Mig-27 and Su-30MKI, even some Jaguars as attrition replacement.
IAF is extremely flexible. This also keeps the companies on their toes because nothing is assured until a contract is signed.
There's no point in that. The base costs will already have been settled in the GTG. Adding F-35 to the mix won't change that. We won't get a better deal than we already have now.
You do know that the offer for MII or off the shelf purchase of the Mirage 2000 wasn't pursued due to us being short of cash . The MiG 29 was also procured for that very same reason and also because the then SU offered very good terms. I believe @Hellfire penned a very good short essay on it ( I forget if it was our here or on Older Forum) . I'm not aware of the reasons behind going ahead with the manufacture of the MiG 27 .
Rafale production at DRAL is said to be 20% cheaper than production in France....
Where does it say that by requesting a classified presentation , you are going ahead or giving a commitment for procurement ? Besides , what exactly are the US/ LM duo going to spill out in a presentation ? I find this too far fetched .
The remedy you're suggesting is worse than the malady. For in the worst case scenario , we may end up with 5 different kinds of FA. Ridiculous !!
IAF was flexible ??!!? They didn't have a choice . It was desi juggad. One of the earliest manifestations of that ubiquitously Indian trait .The best that you can do is impart spin to this and that's exactly what you're doing.
Coz out here it's groundnut oil instead of olive oil , chicken liver instead of foie gras, Sula instead of fine Bordeaux wine , paneer instead of cheese and no snails too. But since you've teamed up with the Ambanis it's going to be a teetotallers paradise plus no meat . Hell , it ought to be nearly 40% cheaper .
I know. Hell and I had a long discussion about it. But after we had the money, we went for MKI. We basically bought piecemeal numbers of Mig-29 and replaced it with MKI. Every time we didn't have money, original programs gave way to new ones.
M-2000 as well, we wanted to produce 110, but the requirement died out in 2004, replaced with the need for a more modern SEF like Gripen.
We also had MMRCA. We ended that and now we will have TE MII. So we bought piecemeal numbers of Rafale, probably no more than 72, and started a different program. With TE MII, Rafale will have to fight again. Although I'm sure Rafale will easily win this tender, but for the sake of the discussion, if a better aircraft exists, it will beat the Rafale.
Maybe there won't be a SE or TE MII and instead all aircraft will come back again for a MMRCA 2.0, with the F-35 as a new participant. Or F-35 will be bought independently from the tender. Or more Rafale may be purchased through GTG. We are simply spoilt for choice. Within the IAF itself you can expect even more difference of opinion among all the major stakeholders, including buying 100 more 'advanced' MKIs or 100 more LCAs.
After all, after a tender is cancelled, it's like it never happened. M-2000 GTG gave way to SE-MRCA which turned into TE-MMRCA (F-16/Gripen were merely participants) and back again to SE-MMRCA 2.0. Nothing's stopping us from turning SE-MMRCA 2.0 into something else. TE-MMRCA 2.0 could also change. This transition takes so long that we end up with a generation gap. We could still be discussing this in 2030.
Give it sometime and even the navy will join this circus.
If we are talking about unit costs alone, the F-35 will still be cheaper than the Rafale with a 20% lower production cost. Otoh, IAF F-35s could be more expensive than USAF F-35s. I suppose it's too early to talk about costs.
By the time Mig-29 joined IAF, Indian economy was in dire straits(late 80s till early 90s). Apart from that M-2000 was super expensive($10 mil a piece). Indian economy just could not afford to buy any more aircrafts and that's the reason no new aircraft was inducted during 90s. Su-MKI deal was signed in 2000. By that time Indian economy was doing reasonably good plus Kargil war exposed the loopholes in our preparedness. So Su-30 MKI deal cannot be compared with either Mig-29 or M-2000.
They have only given classified briefings to countries that have already made a commitment to purchase.
I suppose there are multiple levels when it comes to classified briefings. But if you want MMRCA level information, then you won't be given that briefing without a commitment. But then, anything below that is useless.
This is an affirmation that I'm not going to believe anytime soon. The only way in which the F-35 can save on cost compared to the Rafale is by virtue of its much greater production run -- but that also means you have to buy them from the Fort Worth production line.
Which you will have to, anyway. You will never get MII with the F-35. Or at least not before, say, the year 2090.
Yep. But that's how delays work. You could be working on something and, given enough time, something else may replace it.
For example, we are talking about F-16, Gripen, F-35, FGFA and Rafale now. But, for all you know, Vstol's MSA may steal the show and take all the contracts, even FGFA.
Then IAF shouldn't have bought MKI, they should have gone ahead with Mig-29 production. There was a brand new Mig-29M out, ready for production, during the time.
I have only presented all the possibilities and they are all within the realms of reality.
I know. You are actually repeating my own argument to Hellfire.
But it's the same thing that's happening now. We moved away from the Mig-29 to the MKI. Similarly, we moved away from the original MRCA for M-2000 in 2001 and switched to a new SE-MRCA in 2018. The same thing can happen if a TE-MMRCA is held all the way in 2025 with first delivery expected in 2033. The participants may not be the same then. If enough time passes, new interests take its place.
I have more confidence for a Rafale MII if Dassault initiates it with a second order of 36 and MRCBF than if the GoI starts a brand new tender all the way in 2025.
I agree. The Russia factor is too important for MII to be feasible.
But even a small order of 40 jets will cement our ties better than the F-16 ever will. This is really important to both the govts. Anything is better than the F-16.
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