Indian Economy : News,Discussions & Updates

This Aiyer chutiya need to get out of his million USD house & go countryside.... people purchasing power has decreased that's a fact.....Just cause he & his billionaire pals doesn't like the data doesn't means it's a lie & fabrication.
here's something for you to ponder on.

Indian economic downturn eats away at workers’ diet.

Low-income families cut back on food spending as lay-offs proliferate.

In Kamlesh Devi’s kitchen the only food is a fistful of pungent red chillies, a few wilted carrots, some oil and a big container of subsidised flour.Until three years ago, the 40-year-old landless labourer and mother of five in rural Rajasthan seemed to be clawing her way up in the world — but India’s economic downturn has hit her family’s diet.“Earlier we ate vegetables every day, and lentils on most days. Now sometimes there is not even a vegetable in the house,” she said.


When India’s economy was buoyant, her husband had steady work in the construction industry, while she cleaned homes. The couple borrowed Rs200,000 ($2,800) to improve their rudimentary village house. These days, though, Ms Devi feels herself slipping back into the kind of grinding poverty she thought she had left behind.

With India’s real estate sector beset by troubles, her husband is often without work. Her own wages are consumed by debt repayment and school fees. Cash for nutritious food is in short supply, leaving the family to subsist mainly on rotis — Indian flatbread — seasoned with tiny quantities of vegetables or chilli.“We buy fresh milk as and when we can afford it, but there are lots of times when we do not even have enough milk for tea,” said Ms Devi, whose hand-me-down refrigerator stands empty.

The composition of diets is falling back in favour of just meeting your calorie requirements, rather than your nutritional requirements

Mahesh Vyas, Centre for Monitoring the Indian Economy.

Such tales of hardship are increasingly common in rural India, where families who were being lifted out of poverty by rapid economic growth are reeling from the effects of a sharp economic slowdown.

For the past six quarters, India’s economy has lost momentum. Growth has tumbled from an annual expansion rate of 8.1 per cent in the first quarter of 2018 to just 4.5 per cent in the third quarter of this year. Farmers’ incomes have been squeezed by government efforts to keep food prices down, but hardest hit are landless labourers who had benefited from a growing number of non-farm jobs yet now face lay-offs and bitter struggles to find paid work.

As their household incomes have dropped, many families are cutting back on nutritious foods such as milk, eggs, fruit, vegetables and lentils, and instead mainly consuming subsidised grain sold by the government.

"Our stomachs are empty,” said Ms Devi’s neighbour, Sushila, whose employer of nearly five years — a small enterprise making plastic irrigation pipes — shut down eight months ago.Ms Sushila, who has a school-age daughter and an ailing husband, now scrapes by on occasional work as a farm labourer, earning about Rs150 ($2) per day in harvest or sowing season. “The doctor has advised my husband to eat one egg every day, but we cannot afford it,” she said.


Quantifying the precise impact of India’s slowdown on diets is difficult given the lack of timely official data. But independent analysts say many families never recovered from the twin shocks of Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s November 2016 cash ban and the chaotic introduction of a new value added tax system, which together had a devastating impact on labour-intensive small-scale industries.

A leaked Indian government report showed that in the year after the cash ban rural Indians bought less of basic food items including grains, sugar, salt and lentils.“There had been a structural shift in diets, which were moving away from large calorie intake to higher protein intake,” said Mahesh Vyas, chief executive of the Mumbai-based Centre for Monitoring the Indian Economy (CMIE).

“That shift seems to have gotten arrested or even reversed. The composition of diets is falling back in favour of just meeting your calorie requirements, rather than your nutritional requirements.”India’s unemployment rate hit a 45-year-high of 6.1 per cent in the year after the cash ban, government data show. The unemployment rate rose to 8.5 per cent in October, according to CMIE estimates.

The percentage of working age Indians employed or seeking jobs has fallen from 48 per cent before the cash ban to just over 42 per cent at present, the CMIE said, as many discouraged job seekers have given up the hunt for work. Not far from Kesroli Ko Bas village stands the Fort View Residency, a partially built and seemingly abandoned real estate development with more than 1,000 one- and two-bedroom apartments in mid-rise blocks.

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everything in this article is a fact....I have personally seen situation on ground. Just to give you an example... a maid worker who look for my mother borrowed 10,000 RS cause she had no money for food for herself & her family of three 3 month ago...her complaint was simple, that work has dried up in last 3 years & they are having a very hard time.

People who are still in denial are real a** holes... people don't have money to by food forget other necessities...supa powa!! 5 trillion USD economy 2020-25 indeed.
 
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:ROFLMAO:
 
India to overtake Japan as world's No. 3 economy in 2029
India will surpass Japan in terms of gross domestic product in 2029 to become the world's third-largest economy, the Japan Center for Economic Research says, as the urban population and tech industry drive growth in the South Asian country.

India's economy, currently about half the size of Japan's, is destined to reach roughly $10 trillion by 2035, according to JCER's latest annual Medium-Term Forecast on Asian Economies. Japan's GDP was estimated at $4.9 trillion by the World Bank in 2018.

The populations of Mumbai and New Delhi are expected to jump by more than 40% over the 20-year period ending in 2035. Mumbai will become the fourth-largest city globally in terms of inhabitants, with New Delhi ranking fifth.

The rise of India's startups will fuel the nation's economy as well. Indian cities host nearly 10% of 115 unlisted startups worldwide that offer promising growth prospects but have valuations below $1 billion.

JCER projected the gross domestic product in 2035 for 81 major cities in 15 nations and regions. Five U.S. cities ranked near the top in the estimates, with New York taking the No. 1 spot. Tokyo came in second, while Osaka was projected as No. 10.

No Chinese city made the 2015 rankings in terms of GDP. But for 2035, JCER projects that Shanghai will soar to fourth place while Beijing and Shenzhen rank fifth and seventh, respectively.

"New industries are developing in China, such as drones and electric vehicle development," a JCER researcher said.
India to overtake Japan as world's No. 3 economy in 2029
 
India’s fuel demand jumps in November
India’s fuel demand increased in November amidst the domestic economy battling a severe demand slowdown.

According to data from the Petroleum Planning and Analysis Cell (PPAC), the consumption of petroleum products last month increased to 18.76 million tonnes (mt); a 10.5% jump from 16.98 mt in November last year. The increase was primarily on account of transportation fuel such as diesel and petrol.

Also, the consumption of bitumen used in road construction in Asia’s third-largest economy went up in November as compared to the corresponding month last year.

India’s economy grew 4.5% in the second quarter, its slowest pace since March 2013, due to a sharp contraction in manufacturing output. Official data released on Thursday showed that the industrial sector remained weak with output shrinking by 3.8% in October. Although the contraction was less intense than in the previous month, the worrying factor is that production of consumer goods such as cars and air-conditioners contracted sharply by 18% in October, the fifth consecutive month of deceleration.

While diesel demand increased by 8.80% to 7.55 mt in November, petrol demand increased by 9.22% to 2.53 mt. This comes in the backdrop of India’s fuel demand dropping amid the domestic economy battling a severe demand slowdown, which has also reduced commercial vehicle traffic on India’s highways.

The transport sector accounts for a substantive consumption of the transportation fuel in the country. The transport sector in turn gets impacted by other sectors.

Interestingly, this comes amid the worst slump in almost two decades for the country’s auto sector, with the industry majors expecting green shoots of a recovery. Energy consumption, especially electricity and refinery products, is usually linked to overall demand in the economy.

The Narendra Modi administration has taken a series of steps to reverse the slowdown, including a cut in the corporate tax rate in September from 30% to 22% for companies not availing tax breaks, and from 25% to 15% for new manufacturers.

The cost of the Indian basket of crude, which averaged $47.56 and $56.43 per barrel in FY17 and FY18, respectively, was $62.54 in November 2019, according to data from the PPAC. The average price was $64.43 a barrel on 11 November. The Indian basket represents the average of Oman, Dubai and Brent crude.
India’s fuel demand jumps in November
 
Vedanta set to invest Rs 60,000 cr in India over 3 yrs, promises more FDI
Vedanta Resources Chairman Anil Agarwal on Monday said the company is planning to invest around Rs 60,000 crore in the next 2-3 years.

The company is also eyeing a top line of USD 30-40 billion and a bottom line of USD 10 million in 4-5 years, Agarwal said at the India Economic Conclave 2019.

"I am committed to India. I have already invested USD 35 billion in India in the past 10 years. I have bought 13 companies so far including Hindustan Zinc, Balco, Sesa Goa and Cairn and all of them are doing well. I hope to invest Rs 60,000 crore in the next 2-3 years," he said.

However, he did not give further details on how the company plans to utilise the funds, but hinted at being keen on acquiring a few public sector companies.

"We currently have the best in class assets and we are looking at many more nationalised companies. I want to tell the government that it should not depend on foreigners but depend on us. They (foreign investors) want to make money but we want to make the country. If government depends on us we will also bring in foreign investment," Agarwal added.

He also said the company is keenly looking at the glass and optical fibre and cable industries.

"Sterlite Tech is doing a good work in optical fibre. I am now keen on developing the glass industry which will be used in electronics. We are developing the glass used in mobiles, TV sets and computers in countries like Korea, Taiwan and Japan. If the atmosphere in India is conducive we will get to do that here as well. This will give a boost to the electronics industry," he added.

When asked about the growth the company foresees by 2024-25 he said, "we are hoping to have a USD 30-40 billion of revenues and a profit of USD 10 million."

He further said as a part of his commitment to the country the intent was to take care of 10 crore children and 5 crore women and give back 75 per cent of wealth to the society.

"I am committed to India and the company has already paid Rs 2 lakh crore in tax in the last 6 years. This contribution is however very small," Agarwal added.
Vedanta set to invest Rs 60,000 cr in India over 3 yrs, promises more FDI
 
India’s sovereign fund rewrites business model
Abu Dhabi: India’s audacious aim to attract investments of $1.5 trillion (Dh5.5 trillion) into its capital-starved infrastructure sector over the next five years can only be realised through unique experiments in public money and private investments from countries like the UAE.

That’s according to the chief of the country’s first sovereign wealth fund.

“In India, you have a deficit of equity capital — that’s been the case for the a long time,” Sujoy Bose, Managing Director and CEO of the National Investment and Infrastructure Fund (NIIF), told Gulf News. “The savings rate in India is pretty good but most of it goes to the debt market.

“At the same time, India needs large investments in infrastructure and the government’s objective now is to bring $1.5 trillion over the next five years. It’s very clear that the way to achieve that goal is through a combination of public sector money and private sector funds.”

Yawning deficit
Although India is one of the world’s fastest-growing emerging markets, it faces a massive infrastructure gap. According to a report by Global Infrastructure Hub and Oxford Economics, the country is expected to invest $3.9 trillion in infrastructure by 2040 under current trends, but will actually need close to $5 trillion to fulfil basic infrastructure needs.

That critical lack of capital in infrastructure is what the NIIF — arguably India’s boldest gamble to boost the sector — sees as lucrative opportunity.

“When the NIIF was set up in 2015, the idea was to create a vehicle to combine government, domestic and international capitals and attract more equity investments — which has always been the big gap,” said Bose.

“That’s the purpose and mission of NIIF: to become a channel for supporting public-private capital, domestic-international capital and then channel it to the infrastructure sector through a commercial mindset. At the end of the day, not only are we getting capital for infrastructure, but that capital is also giving our investors healthy commercial returns.”
Anchor investor
NIIF is hard to pigeonhole: a sovereign-backed, independently managed fund seeking to leverage commercial institutional capital for investments in India’s infrastructure. With a seed investment of $3 billion by the Indian government, the NIIF counts the Abu Dhabi Investment Authority (Adia) as an anchor investor, along with Temasek, AustralianSuper, Ontario Teachers’ Pension Plan, Axis Bank, HDFC Group and Kotak Mahindra Life Insurance among its wide range of investors for the three funds it manages.

The Canada Pension Plan Investment Board (CPPIB) joined that list announcing plans to invest up to $600 million in NIIF. And the NIIF is also a name that cropped up during bids to revive India’s now-defunct Jet Airways, as well as during the recently-concluded Aramco IPO as a potential sovereign investor.

“I haven’t come across too many other situations where an institution has been created with government capital and that’s been able to attract capital so quickly from sovereign wealth funds, foreign institutional investors and pension funds,” the CEO added. “If we achieve our objectives — which is to take the $3 billion and then be catalytic to multiplying that in a commercial platform, then I think we would have created a unique model for a problem that many countries are trying to solve.”


That model is also the reason why Bose was recently in Abu Dhabi.

Showcasing

“Several African countries have created similar vehicles, but not too many of them have been able to attract international institutional capital into those vehicles,” Bose said. “I have come here on the invitation of Adia to join the Africa Investment Summit and describe what we have done with NIIF in India, so that it can be replicated elsewhere.” Replicating the model such might prove to be difficult though, given its eclectic range of interests and investments. In the past couple of years, it has acquired a 500MW renewables platform, created a joint venture for smart meters, secured a stake in Mumbai International Airport’s operator, invested in the affordable housing sector and bought 89 per cent in an NBFC (non-banking financial company), which is actually an infrastructure debt fund.


That last one piques Bose’s interest the most. “Because this will allow us to play a key role in the debt space for infrastructure, where right now there’s a gap and it’s a great opportunity.


“We try to cater to a large group of international investors. Some of them have already discovered the benefits of investing — but we want many more international investors to discover it and literally make Indian infrastructure a regular asset class for these large institutional investors when they allocate capital.”

Bose’s journey

Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi has launched a raft of reforms in recent years in a bid to attract global players to the nfrastructure market — and the NIIF was born out one such reform. In 2016, the government named Bose — who was then a director at the International Finance Corporation (IFC) — to lead NIIF. Within his 25 years at the IFC, Bose enjoyed a stint as chief investment officer of its $1 billion Africa, Latin America and Caribbean Fund.


But he has transitioned smoothly to a confident advocate for Indian infrastructure. “India is by far the friendliest market for infrastructure investors outside the OECD markets,” he asserts.


And the OECD itself, in its Economic Survey of India for 2019, acknowledged that the implementation of the reforms has helped put a break on inflation and fiscal deficits, although it noted with concern that construction activity has weakened considerably despite large housing and infrastructure needs, and that corporate investment as a share of GDP has failed to rebound.

Blips and bumps

Bose admits the challenges, but projects a smoother journey ahead. “The fundamentals of the Indian economy continue to be extremely strong. There’s a consumption — and aspiration driven growth which will continue, especially in the middle- and lower middle-class.


“More than 100 million people have come out of poverty. All this energy will continue to create growth. For the last few years we have been going through a reforms process where domestic investment has slowed down.


“Clearly the economy has softened, but I am not at all discouraged about the fundamentals of the Indian economy or its long-term growth prospects. When the consumption and investment cycles come together, then India becomes a very attractive proposition in terms of economic growth, and I’m hoping that happens soon — which will take us back to those high single-digit growth rates.”

Robust bankruptcy law

Some of the weakening construction activity has been exacerbated by a robust bankruptcy law — the Insolvency and Bankruptcy Code (IBC) — which has exposed distressed assets in several infrastructure sectors. But Bose sees yet another opportunity there.


“The IBC process is crucial because it gives investors the path to resolution,” he said. “Quite a bit of money was invested in infrastructure assets in the previous decades but without enough equity capital.


“Some of the distressed assets that you are talking about now is actually the deleveraging of those assets. This provides opportunity for fresh capital.


“There were operators looking at a short-time horizon whereas they were locked into long-term projects. As a result, many of these assets are now in the market — whether it be airports (Bengaluru airport is being sold; Delhi and Mumbai airports have transactions going on); road projects have had large number of assets that have changed hands. You will continue to see this and its very healthy.”

Short on capital

Bose said that India is in a unique situation “where we are opportunity long and capital short,” and the returns relative to the regulatory risks is extremely compensating. “The thing is this: if the regulatory risk of any investment goes to zero, then your returns will also be next to zero.


“In India, when you take these risks into account — when you take even a currency risk into account — the returns more than compensate for the risks you have taken.”


On the experience of managing three vehicles — a fund of funds; the Strategic Investment Fund, focused on growth opportunities; and the Master Fund to create joint platforms for core infrastructure investments — Bose said: “We have really been in business for three years — a very short period of time.


“At the end of the first year, we had our first close with four of the largest Indian financial institutions as well as Adia, which was a huge milestone for us. We are very grateful to ADIA for taking the step of being an anchor investor in NIIF.


“Then we separately started fund-raising for our second fund, in which the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB) became the key investor. Another important milestone was when we made our first investment in January 2018 — when we created the first operating platform under NIIF, focused on ports with DP World.”

Managing ‘sacred money’

Globally, pension funds such as Ontario Teachers and AustralianSuper are among the key investors of NIIF — and Bose remembers Modi’s caveat on handling such funds.


“When such funds came in, it was ample demonstration of the proof-of-concept of NIIF to the pension fund industry. But we also have to be very careful because we are managing public money as well as private funds.


“I remember sitting in a meeting with Prime Minister Modi where he said that managing pension funds is like managing sacred money. That’s a very important responsibility and we take it very seriously.”
India’s sovereign fund rewrites business model