Because India has the size and capability to significantly reduce impact of any sanction on USA. Plus in the past India had the tendency of bending backwards to please the Western world. I am glad that Modi government has shown some spine and firmly pushed back.
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Rise in Indian corporate lending signals new investment cycle
Private investment in India was constrained for years by heavy indebtedness of companies and banks and by weak demand. But over the past two years, corporations and lenders have cut costs and raised equity capital, and companies have been able to spend on new capacity as demand has strengthened.
India's forex reserves rise to $550 billion in week ending Nov 25
The foreign exchange reserves for the week ended November 18 stood at $547.25 billion.
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India may become the third largest economy by 2030, overtaking Japan and Germany
India is set to overtake Japan and Germany to become the world’s third-largest economy, according to S&P Global and Morgan Stanley.S&P’s forecast is based on the projection that India’s annual nominal gross domestic product growth will average 6.3% through 2030. Similarly, Morgan Stanley estimates that India’s GDP is likely to more than double from current levels by 2031.
“India has the conditions in place for an economic boom fueled by offshoring, investment in manufacturing, the energy transition, and the country’s advanced digital infrastructure,” Morgan Stanley analysts led by Ridham Desai and Girish Acchipalia wrote in the report.
“These drivers will make [India] the world’s third-largest economy and stock market before the end of the decade.”
India posted a year-on-year growth of 6.3% for the July to September quarter, fractionally higher than a Reuters poll forecast of 6.2%. Prior to this, India recorded an expansion of 13.5% for the April to June compared to a year ago, buoyed by robust domestic demand in the country’s service sector.
The country posted a record 20.1% year-on-year growth in the three months to June 2021, according to Refinitiv data.
S&P’s projection hinges on the continuation of India’s trade and financial liberalization, labor market reform, as well as investment in India’s infrastructure and human capital.
“This is a reasonable expectation from India, which has a lot to ‘catch up’ in terms of economic growth and per capita income,” Dhiraj Nim, an economist from Australia and New Zealand Banking Group Research, told CNBC.
Some of the reforms cited have already been set in motion, said Nim, highlighting the government’s commitment to set aside more capital expenditure in the country’s annual expenditure books.
Becoming a more export-driven hub
There’s a clear focus by India’s government to become a hub for foreign investors as well as a manufacturing powerhouse, and their main vehicle for doing so is through the Production Linked Incentive Scheme to boost manufacturing and exports, according to S&P analysts.The so-called PLIS, which was introduced in 2020, offers incentives to both domestic and foreign investors in the form of tax rebates and license clearances, among other stimulus.
“It is very likely that the government is banking on PLIS as a tool to make the Indian economy more export-driven and more inter-linked in global supply chains,” S&P analysts wrote.
Workers processing metal parts at a cookstove manufacturing plant of GHG Reduction Technologies Pvt in Nashik, Maharashtra, India, on Sunday, Nov. 13, 2022.
Dhiraj Singh | Bloomberg | Getty Images
By the same token, Morgan Stanley estimates that Indian manufacturing’s share of GDP will “rise from 15.6% of GDP currently to 21% by 2031” — which implies that manufacturing revenue could increase three times from the current $447 billion to around $1,490 billion, according to the bank.
“Multinationals are more optimistic than ever about investing in India … and the government is encouraging investment by both building infrastructure and supplying land for factories,” Morgan Stanley said.
“India’s advantages [include] abundant low-cost labor, the low cost of manufacturing, openness to investment, business-friendly policies and a young demographic with a strong penchant for consumption,” said Sumedha Dasgupta, a senior analyst from the Economist Intelligence Unit.
These factors make make India an attractive choice for setting up manufacturing hubs until the end of the decade, she said.
Risk factors
Salient sticking points that could challenge Morgan Stanley’s forecast include a prolonged global recession, since India is a highly trade-dependent economy with nearly 20% of its output exported.Other risk factors cited by the U.S. investment bank include supply of skilled labor, adverse geopolitical events and policy errors which may arise from voting in a “weaker government.”
A global slowdown may dampen India’s export businesses outlook, India’s finance ministry said last Thursday.
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Even though India’s GDP on aggregate is already above pre-Covid levels, forward looking growth is going to be “much weaker” compared to previous quarters, said Sonal Varma, chief economist at Nomura.“Real GDP is now 8% above pre-Covid levels in growth rate terms ... but in terms of the forward looking view, there are headwinds from the global side financial conditions,” Varma told CNBC’s Squawk Box on Thursday, warning that there will be a cyclical slowdown ahead.
Similarly, Nim also said that more priority could be given to human capital investment via education and health.
“This is especially important for a post-pandemic economy where greater disruptions to the informal sector have meant widened economic and wealth inequalities,” he said, adding that falling labor force participation rate, especially among women, was concerning.
India may become the third largest economy by 2030, overtaking Japan and Germany
India is set to overtake Japan and Germany to become the world's third-largest economy, according to S&P Global and Morgan Stanley.
Breakingviews - India watchdog ire cools foreign banks’ ambitions
Every few years, bank bosses often ask themselves a question: is it worth having a business here? For some with overseas operations in India, the answer might soon be no.
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Data Protection Bill to see the light of the day soon:
Very soon, the government will be uploading the revised draft, which will meet everyone's expectations, says the minister. "From the entire country, there is an expectation that the bill should be very neatly drafted, it should be easy to understand, it should be relevant with the times, it should create that online environment where trust and safety of the users get the primacy."
He further explained that the data protection bill has been in the works for a long. But if we were to look at the journey of this bill, when the joint parliamentary committee suggested a series of amendments in the bill of 99 sections, there were 81 amendments suggested. Then there were about 17 major recommendations on top of it. So, the government had no choice but to redraft the bill, which is practically completed. "Prime Minister Narendra Modi has said that, even though there is a very long series of consultations, which have gone, still we must thoroughly consult with the people with all the stakeholders."
Exclusive: 8 Promises Union minister Ashwini Vaishnaw made at Business Today India@100 conclave
Very soon, the government will be uploading the revised draft of personal data protection bill, which will meet everyone's expectations, says Ashwini Vaishnaw.www.businesstoday.in
India proposes permitting cross-border data transfers with certain countries in new privacy bill
India has proposed a new comprehensive data privacy law that will mandate how companies handle data of its citizens, including permitting cross-border transfer of information with certain nations, three months after it abruptly withdrew the previous proposal following scrutiny and concerns from privacy advocates and tech giants.The nation’s IT ministry published a draft of the proposed rules (PDF), called the Digital Personal Data Protection Bill 2022, on Friday for public consultation. It will hear views from the public until December 17.
“The purpose of this Act is to provide for the processing of digital personal data in a manner that recognizes both the right of individuals to protect their personal data and the need to process personal data for lawful purposes, and for matters connected therewith or incidental thereto,” the draft says.
The draft permits cross-border interactions of data with “certain notified countries and territories,” in a move that is seen as a win for tech companies.
“The Central Government may, after an assessment of such factors as it may consider necessary, notify such countries or territories outside India to which a Data Fiduciary may transfer personal data, in accordance with such terms and conditions as may be specified,” the draft says, without naming the countries.
Asia Internet Coalition, a lobby group that represents Meta, Google, Amazon and many other tech firms, had requested New Delhi to permit cross-border transfer of data. “Cross-border transfer decisions should be free from executive or political interference, and should ideally be minimally regulated,” they wrote in a letter to the IT ministry earlier this year.
“Placing restrictions on cross-border data flows is likely to result in higher business failure rates, introduce barriers for start-ups, and lead to more expensive product offerings from existing market players. Ultimately, the above mandates will affect digital inclusion and the ability of Indian consumers to access a truly global internet and quality of services,” the group had said.
The proposal also seeks to give New Delhi (the federal government) the powers to exempt state governments from the law in the interest of national security.
The draft also proposes that companies only use the data they have collected on users for the purpose they obtained them originally. It also seeks accountability from the firms that they ensure that they are processing the personal data for the users for the precise purpose they collected it.
It also asks that companies do not store the data perpetually by default. “The storage should be limited to such duration as is necessary for the stated purpose for which personal data was collected,” a note from the ministry said.
The draft proposes a penalty of up to $30.6 million in the event a firm fails to provide “reasonable security safeguards to prevent personal data breach.” There’s another $24.5 million fine if the firm fails to notify the local authority and users for failure to disclose personal data breach.
The earlier proposed rules were touted to help protect the citizens’ personal data by categorizing it into different segments based on their nature, such as sensitive or critical. However, the new version does not segregate data as such, according to the draft.
Similar to Europe’s GDPR and the CCPA (California Consumer Privacy Act) in the U.S., India’s proposed Digital Personal Data Protection Bill 2022 will apply to businesses operating in the country and to any entities processing the data of Indian citizens.
Public policy experts have lauded the government’s move to shrink the proposal from its previous versions — from over 90 clauses to 30. However, they believe that cutting down its text would bring some ambiguity.
Kazim Rizvi, a digital policy advocate and founding director of New Delhi-based tech-policy think-tank The Dialogue, told TechCrunch that removing provisions related to striking a memorandum of understanding across regulators for establishing inter-regulatory coordination and omitting the sandbox mechanism to test innovation are some concerning areas.
“Given that the bill will prevail over other existing and proposed laws in case of inconsistency, this jurisdictional precedence is easier said than implemented in the Indian regulatory landscape. Therefore, there is a need for a more structured approach toward harmonizing the existing and proposed allied laws, like a cross-reference system where sectoral or domain-specific regulators could work with the Digital Protection Act to create regulations,” he said.
The proposed rules, which are expected to be discussed in the parliament after receiving public consultation, would not bring any changes to select controversial laws in the country that were drafted more than a decade ago. New Delhi is, though, working on updating its two-decade-old IT law that would debut as the Digital India Act. It will segregate intermediaries and come as the endgame, India’s minister of state for IT Rajeev Chandrasekhar told TechCrunch in a recent interview.
In August, the Indian government withdrew its earlier Personal Data Protection Bill that was unveiled in 2019 after much anticipation and judicial pressure. At the time, India’s IT Minister Ashwini Vaishnaw said that the withdrawal was considered to “present a new bill that fits into the comprehensive legal framework.”
Meta, Google and Amazon were some of the companies that had expressed concerns about some of the recommendations by the joint parliamentary committee on the proposed bill.
The move to bring a data protection law came privacy was declared as a fundamental right by the Supreme Court of India in 2017. However, the country faced strong criticism over its earlier data protection bills due to their intrinsic nature of granting government agencies the power to access citizens’ data.
At one of the sessions during the G-20 Summit in Bali earlier this week, Prime Minister Narendra Modi talked about the principle of “Data for development” and said that the country would work with G-20 partners to bring “digital transformation in the life of every human being” during its next year’s presidency for the 19 countries comprising intergovernmental forum.
India proposes permitting cross-border data transfers with certain countries in new privacy bill | TechCrunch
India is beginning public consultation for a new comprehensive data privacy bill that will mandate how companies handle its citizens' data.
techcrunch.com
New PDP Bill to bolster India's narrative as trusted global partner
The key industry stakeholders led by industry body Nasscom, during a meeting with IT Minister Ashwini Vaishnaw, have emphasised that the draft Digital Personal Data Protection Bill 2022 will bolster India's narrative as a trusted global partner for all invested in digital transformation.In the meeting, attended by Alkesh Kumar Sharma, Secretary MeitY, along with startups and small and medium enterprises (SMEs), provided their initial feedback and suggestions on the bill to the IT Minister last week.
Vaishnaw said that as the PDP Bill gets finalised, on cross-border data flows, the government will ensure that the approach focusses on strengthening data protection without disrupting data flows.
The industry felt that a framework prepared in consultation with government departments, sectoral regulators, and public consultations, should provide a clear, proportionate and enabling framework, Nasscom said in a statement on Monday.
Industry welcomed the retention of forward-looking concepts, such as the consent manager, to enable citizens to effectively manage their consent.
The IT Minister said that the PDP Bill will be designed to redress concerns and complaints regarding data protection in a manner that the mechanism is accessible and effective for every strata of the society.
"A good idea for startups and technology providers to offer their feedback will be to test the Bill against their specific use-cases to identify gaps, if any, and provide suggestions accordingly," Vaishnaw told the industry stakeholders.
The shift away from revenue-based penalties is to ensure certainty and avoid getting into debates on revenue calculations which have created concerns in other regulatory regimes, he maintained.
The industry stakeholders said that as compared to the previous drafts, this version has been simplified by removing past proposals that were not related to personal data protection, such as non-personal data, or that would have posed significant concerns to ease of doing business, such as the criminal offence, the hardware certification scheme, or the statutory data residency requirements.
"The technology neutral design of the Bill, combined with focus on leveraging technology to enhance the effectiveness of the data protection board and enable consent management, were noted as key features that would help the Bill meet its objectives," said Nasscom.
Recognising that data is central to every country and industry, Nasscom said it will continue to work with the government and the industry to further strengthen the PDP bill from a privacy and innovation perspective.
'New PDP Bill to bolster India's narrative as trusted global partner'
Vaishnaw said that as the PDP Bill gets finalised, on cross-border data flows, the government will ensure that the approach focusses on strengthening data protection without disrupting data flows
We are Diluting data protection bill.New PDP Bill to bolster India's narrative as trusted global partner
The key industry stakeholders led by industry body Nasscom, during a meeting with IT Minister Ashwini Vaishnaw, have emphasised that the draft Digital Personal Data Protection Bill 2022 will bolster India's narrative as a trusted global partner for all invested in digital transformation.
In the meeting, attended by Alkesh Kumar Sharma, Secretary MeitY, along with startups and small and medium enterprises (SMEs), provided their initial feedback and suggestions on the bill to the IT Minister last week.
Vaishnaw said that as the PDP Bill gets finalised, on cross-border data flows, the government will ensure that the approach focusses on strengthening data protection without disrupting data flows.
The industry felt that a framework prepared in consultation with government departments, sectoral regulators, and public consultations, should provide a clear, proportionate and enabling framework, Nasscom said in a statement on Monday.
Industry welcomed the retention of forward-looking concepts, such as the consent manager, to enable citizens to effectively manage their consent.
The IT Minister said that the PDP Bill will be designed to redress concerns and complaints regarding data protection in a manner that the mechanism is accessible and effective for every strata of the society.
"A good idea for startups and technology providers to offer their feedback will be to test the Bill against their specific use-cases to identify gaps, if any, and provide suggestions accordingly," Vaishnaw told the industry stakeholders.
The shift away from revenue-based penalties is to ensure certainty and avoid getting into debates on revenue calculations which have created concerns in other regulatory regimes, he maintained.
The industry stakeholders said that as compared to the previous drafts, this version has been simplified by removing past proposals that were not related to personal data protection, such as non-personal data, or that would have posed significant concerns to ease of doing business, such as the criminal offence, the hardware certification scheme, or the statutory data residency requirements.
"The technology neutral design of the Bill, combined with focus on leveraging technology to enhance the effectiveness of the data protection board and enable consent management, were noted as key features that would help the Bill meet its objectives," said Nasscom.
Recognising that data is central to every country and industry, Nasscom said it will continue to work with the government and the industry to further strengthen the PDP bill from a privacy and innovation perspective.
'New PDP Bill to bolster India's narrative as trusted global partner'
Vaishnaw said that as the PDP Bill gets finalised, on cross-border data flows, the government will ensure that the approach focusses on strengthening data protection without disrupting data flowswap.business-standard.com
Becoming 'the next China' won't save India from 2023 economic slowdown
It’s not immediately obvious that the global slowdown has also arrived in India: Investments in factories, roads, and other fixed assets are just shy of 35% of domestic output; they haven’t been this high in 10 years. Loan demand is growing so fast that deposits can’t keep up.What’s driving India’s animal spirits amid a worldwide malaise? Some of it is a result of the economy reopening fully. Contact-based services like travel and hospitality came back sharply from their pandemic funk in the first half of the year, fueling optimism. The other oft-cited reason is what multinational corporations refer to as their “China+1” strategy.
Global manufacturers have taken note of the violent protests by locked-down workers at Apple Inc.’s most important iPhone assembly plant in China. Their search for risk mitigation is bringing them to the second-most-populous nation, which is offering generous subsidies for making everything from semiconductors and solar panels to electric-vehicle batteries and textiles. It’s a compelling combination of push and pull.
But China+1 is not going to be of much help in averting a near-term economic slowdown. For one thing, the ramp-up in capital expenditure has been driven by the federal government. Persistent above-target inflation gave it extra tax resources, and it pumped them into infrastructure. The private sector followed suit, even though it faced a margin squeeze from not being able to fully pass on higher costs to consumers. India’s banks, eager to bulk up their post-pandemic asset books, have been more than willing to help firms tide over their cash-flow crunch. As a result, the combined capital expenditure by the federal and state governments as well as large publicly traded companies this fiscal year may exceed 21 trillion rupees ($258 billion), double the annual investment rate between 2016 and 2018, according to ICICI Securities.
There’s a flipside to this happy story, though. Now that the pent-up consumption from the pandemic is exhausted, the double whammy of high inflation and indirect taxes — the source of buoyant government revenues — is starting to pinch average- and low-income households.
Nomura’s consumption tracker fell from 11 percentage points above its pre-pandemic reading in the June quarter to below that level in October. It’s hard to see 2023 as a great year for the urban middle-class as global tech-industry layoffs affect jobs and capital availability for startups. Rural demand is anyway sluggish, according to consumer-goods companies. “We believe India’s growth rate cycle has peaked and a broad-based slowdown is under way,” Nomura analysts wrote last week after gross domestic product expanded 6.3% in the September quarter, less than half the rate of growth in the previous three months. In their estimate, the full-year rate at the eve of India’s general election in the summer of 2024 may be 5.2%.
Those challenges are immediate, whereas the supply chains India is hoping to set up from scratch by throwing subsidies at investors — and offering them the protection of high tariff barriers — are a long-term gamble. Only 15% of the $33 billion in private investment approved by the government under its production-linked incentive program has fructified so far; fewer than 200,000 jobs were created as of September, compared with expectations of around 6 million, according to official data cited in an article on Quint, a news website. Even if the West’s estrangement with China deepens, or if the much-anticipated end to President Xi Jinping’s Covid-19 policies gets postponed, there’s nothing to suggest that private investment will do much heavy lifting for India next year.
That’s also because exports are starting to slow down for most Asian suppliers: Shipments out of India hit a 20-month low in October. The recent GDP data shows clear signs of the country’s industrial sector losing momentum. The unemployment rate has risen to 8%.
The policy playbook for New Delhi appears rather thin. Yes, local interest rates will top out in early 2023, but not before taking the total tightening in the current cycle to over 2 percentage points. Financial conditions could become harsher still. If the war in Ukraine escalates — or if China suddenly drops its stringent virus controls — a shortage of commodities relative to demand could again flare up. That will crimp cash flows for Indian firms, sending more of them to seek external financing to meet their stretched working-capital needs. Banks, under pressure to raise deposit rates to shore up their liquidity position, may not be as accommodating of credit risk as they have been this year. If they are, they’ll only be storing up trouble for later.
The growth outlook for India next year is subdued. Just how tough it could get depends on how badly the global economy sputters. There will be long-term benefits from positioning India as an attractive second destination for producers trying to curb their China exposure. But the wisdom of staking $24 billion of public funds over five years to accelerate a shift in global supply chains is bound to get questioned, especially if India in 2024 finds itself in the same low-growth rut that had propelled Modi to national power in 2014.
Becoming 'the next China' won't save India from 2023 economic slowdown
'It's hard to see 2023 as a great year for the urban middle-class as global tech-industry layoffs affect jobs and capital availability for startups. Rural demand is anyway sluggish'
India's economic reforms will help boost potential growth beyond 6%: Goldman Sachs
Govt policy of absorbing food price shocks and providing counter cyclical stimulus should continue next year with the general election coming up in 2024, the brokerage said.
India to engage with four key economies over FTAs
The year 2023 is set to be extremely busy for Indian trade negotiators as they will engage four key economies – the UK, the European Union (EU), Canada and the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) – on trade deals while targeting to close a deal with the UK by the Holi festivities in March, three people aware of developments said.Though official timelines for the different negotiations are yet to be finalised, it is expected the trade deal with Australia will be operational in early 2023, and this may be followed by the conclusion of negotiations for a free trade agreement (FTA) with the UK, the people said requesting anonymity.
India finalised two deals this year– the India-UAE FTA signed on February 18 that officially entered into force on May 1, and the India-Australia Economic Cooperation and Trade Agreement (ECTA), which was inked on April 2 and was ratified by Australia’s Parliament on Tuesday.
“While the fifth round of talks with Canada were held last week, the third round of India-EU trade negotiation is scheduled to start on November 28. Besides, the terms of reference for a trade deal with GCC are currently being negotiated. India has been approached by many other countries, but we don’t have any spare capacity left to engage with them immediately,” one of the people said. The UAE, Bahrain, Saudi Arabia, Oman, Qatar and Kuwait members of GCC.
Commerce minister Piyush Goyal and GCC secretary general Nayef Falah M. Al-Hajraf met in New Delhi on Thursday, marking the launch of India-GCC free trade agreement negotiations, a government spokesperson said.
“Some definite outlines of the deals with the EU and Canada are expected in 2023 as they are keen to forge trade pacts expeditiously since India has emerged one of the most reliable global sourcing hubs for goods and services. Apart from that, it is one of the shining stars while most economies are slowing down due to global headwinds,”a second person said.
The third round of the India-EU trade negotiations will be held in India from November 28 to December 9. A total of 75 sessions on 19 policy areas are scheduled for this round. India’s negotiations with the EU were revived on June 17 after a gap of almost a decade and cover three agreements on trade, investment and geographical indicators.
The first round focused on discussing EU proposals for 18 chapters, and the second was devoted to detailed exchanges on Indian responses to the EU’s proposals and on Indian textual counterproposals. The EU tabled a draft chapter on trade and sustainable development, anti-fraud and mutual administrative assistance ahead of the second round. The Indian side was requested to provide detailed explanations and clarifications of its positions to prepare for the third round, when the negotiators “should be in a position to enter into actual negotiations”, a third person said.
Further exchanges of information on most chapters are expected ahead of the third round, the third person said. The second round facilitated better understanding of each side’s sensitivities on trade in goods and also identified differences on rules of origin. There were also “differences in positions” on technical barriers to trade and “significant divergences” on trade in services.
The first person said: “Although India-EU negotiations are progressing well, due to complexities such as there being 27 EU members and other issues, a definite timeline is still not clear.”
India and the EU have set a timeline of concluding negotiations by 2023, considered ambitious since the bloc’s other FTAs have usually taken several years. Enrique Mora, the EU deputy secretary general for political affairs who was in New Delhi this week for political consultations, acknowledged the complexities involved in the trade negotiations.
“We really want to go for that. India wants to go for it but it’s not easy because you’re a big country, a big economy...But what we were absolutely sure is that by the next [India-EU] summit next year, we should have something on [the trade deal],” Mora said.
As with Australia, trade with developed countries is always good for India, which is emerging as a global supply chain hub, the first person said. “There are some areas of concerns such as mobility, automobiles and whisky, particularly Scotch. But our industry understands it is give and take and ultimately it will expand their market.”
While India and the UK were unable to meet a Diwali deadline for concluding talks on a FTA, the two sides are hoping to bridge differences on market access, automobiles and mobility of professionals and students to finalise an agreement early next year. In this context, Holi is being seen as a possible timeframe for concluding a deal.
Confederation of Indian Alcoholic Beverage Companies (CIABC) director general Vinod Giri said: “The FTA with UK and EU under progress will, of course, affect the Indian alcoholic beverages industry, at least in the near term. But Indian industry is willing to embrace that risk in the larger interest of the economy and in the hope that the FTAs also open opportunities for Indian industry to compete in the global alco-bev trade.”
He added, “The world may want us as the buyer but we also aspire to be the world’s suppliers. We are the world’s largest producer of whiskey. Our malt whiskies like Rampur and Amrut or our craft gins like Jaisalmer are acclaimed all over the world. We too need market access. We want the FTAs to not just open our market but also the doors of the world to us.”
India has also held five rounds of trade talks with Canada. The fifth round of negotiations was held during November 14-18, where the intent was covering areas such as the environment, labour, gender and small and medium enterprises (SMEs). This was besides traditional matters under the Early Progress Trade Agreement (EPTA), which was relaunched in March. EPTA is the first milestone before a Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (CEPA) between India and Canada.
India to engage with four key economies over FTAs
The year 2023 is set to be extremely busy for Indian trade negotiators as they will engage four key economies on FTA while targeting to close a deal with the UK by the Holi festivities in March.
Tamil Nadu has most factories in India says RBI report, as state plots path to a trillion-dollar economy - CNBC TV18
As of FY20, Tamil Nadu’s 38,837 factories were over 10,000 more than Gujarat’s 28,479 — despite Gujarat’s factory count rising by 82 percent in the last decade against Tamil Nadu’s 45 percent.
‘Global institutions’ India growth forecast of 7-8% is a rebuttal to Rajan’
Responding to former RBI governor Raghuram Rajan’s take that India “would be lucky” to grow at 5% next year, Union Minister Gajendra Singh Shekhawat says that he will soon “change his views”
India overtakes China in M&A fees for western banks for first time
The world’s largest investment banks will earn more dealmaking fees in India this year than in China, a first that financiers describe as a historic reorientation as they diversify away from a decoupling Chinese economy. Foreign banks have pulled in $231mn in mergers and acquisitions fees from India so far this year, according to Dealogic, beating the $204mn earned in China over the same period. JPMorgan is among those that will earn more from M&A in India than in China this year for the first time, according to two people with knowledge of the bank’s position. JPMorgan declined to comment.Revenue from Chinese equity and bond markets, long one of the biggest sources of fees for US and European finance houses in Asia, has fallen in 2022 as mainland China sealed itself off during the pandemic and increasingly favoured local banks. Although deal activity is expected to expand as China now reopens, Wall Street bankers have warned that the long period of closure had made more Chinese companies turn to domestic banks for advisory work in the future. Foreign investment banks’ core revenue — including equity and debt capital markets as well as M&A — has dropped 70 per cent to $602mn over the year to date compared with 2021, according to data from Dealogic. That follows a drop of 15 per cent the previous year.
The trend reinforces how the decoupling in trade, investment and technology between the US and China is affecting capital markets. While India remains a fraction of the revenue China historically brings in for global investment banks, the numbers are indicative of a broader shift by western finance to find opportunities and growth in other markets. Jan Metzger, head of banking, capital markets and advisory for Citi in Asia, said “the evolution of the banking wallet there with the growth in tech, alongside the established Indian corporate titans being more active” had made India a “leading investment banking market for Citi in 2022”.
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Cabinet approves Adani’s bid for Dharavi redevelopment
Mumbai: The Maharashtra cabinet on Friday approved the bid of the Adani group in the Dharavi Redevelopment Project