Israel-Hamas Conflict: Updates & Discussions

[South block]

If West want to d-fang Iran than this is once in a lifetime opportunity...... Nobody is going to jump to protect Iran. Russia has been mauled badly in Ukraine & Ching Chong is all talk no bite. Western Airforce will have air superiority in days & mulla won't come out of their bunkers for months.

 

[LX1111]

If West want to d-fang Iran than this is once in a lifetime opportunity...... Nobody is going to jump to protect Iran. Russia has been mauled badly in Ukraine & Ching Chong is all talk no bite. Western Airforce will have air superiority in days & mulla won't come out of their bunkers for months.

The United States does not have the ability to launch a second Iraq war, and Iran's war potential is ten times that of Iraq. Apart from anything else, Iran's medium-range missile strike capability demonstrated on October 1 is something Iraq has never had. The probability of the United States and Israel intercepting these missiles is not even 20%.

 

[LX1111]

What's interesting here is that Iran launched a larger retaliation for the killing of the Hezbollah Commander than an IRGC Commander. That's a tacit admission that these terror groups aren't just backed by Iran, they are Iran. Time to hold Iran accountable for their actions at the UN.

I will say something that will not be recognized in Indian forums: the Israeli Army does not have the potential to defeat Hezbollah in South Lebanon, and the Israeli Air Force does not have the ability to launch large-scale air strikes against Iran.

 

[South block]

The United States does not have the ability to launch a second Iraq war, and Iran's war potential is ten times that of Iraq. Apart from anything else, Iran's medium-range missile strike capability demonstrated on October 1 is something Iraq has never had. The probability of the United States and Israel intercepting these missiles is not even 20%.

I would like to disagree

I will say something that will not be recognized in Indian forums: the Israeli Army does not have the potential to defeat Hezbollah in South Lebanon, and the Israeli Air Force does not have the ability to launch large-scale air strikes against Iran.

Ching Chong opinion on defence matter & strategy are worth no more than toilet paper.

 

[randomradio]

The United States does not have the ability to launch a second Iraq war, and Iran's war potential is ten times that of Iraq. Apart from anything else, Iran's medium-range missile strike capability demonstrated on October 1 is something Iraq has never had. The probability of the United States and Israel intercepting these missiles is not even 20%.

I will say something that will not be recognized in Indian forums: the Israeli Army does not have the potential to defeat Hezbollah in South Lebanon, and the Israeli Air Force does not have the ability to launch large-scale air strikes against Iran.

We do not know much about Israel's long range capabilities. Since Iran is their main enemy, they would have some solutions that do not just involve long range aircraft like the F-15E. At least we know they already have long range drones, cruise missiles and the Jericho ballistic missile. So, at the very least, it's similar to what Iran has, and with greater sophistication.

As for South Lebanon, the Israeli Army has the potential, but it depends on how much they focus on that objective. Typically they prefer to do a lot of damage and then leave. But if they plan to take the river and maintain a buffer zone, then they have the ability to do it. Unlike Hezbollah, the Older Forum is a proper army.

The biggest problem Iran has is it lacks an air force. They are entirely reliant on air defense. That gives them minimal options.

The US has the ability to defeat Iran, but don't have the stomach for it in terms of casualties if they want to occupy the country. If they only want to destroy Iran, change regime and leave, then it's definitely doable with minimal casualties, like they did during the Gulf War. Iran's missiles and air defenses are fine, but they need a proper air force if they want to hit American logistics and depth areas. Minimum 300 fighter jets, many logistics aircraft, force multipliers etc, and NATO-standard training. Iran's definitely not ready to fight the US, not even Israel.

In any case, whatever happens, I'm hoping there's little to no impact on the oil and gas trade.

 

[Speedster1]

I have a lot of respect for what the Iranians have managed to accomplish in terms of long-range BMs, drones, air defences. Has parallels to our own struggles in the face of sanctions and then tech denial after Pokhran-1. Sure, they have had dealings with the Chinese and NoKo but commendable effort regardless. But against Israel and the US they stand no chance.

 

[Sathya]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1841723162704097472

 

[BMD]

Nothing like 181 made it through. It was more like 181 interceptions out of 220 launched.

I will say something that will not be recognized in Indian forums: the Israeli Army does not have the potential to defeat Hezbollah in South Lebanon, and the Israeli Air Force does not have the ability to launch large-scale air strikes against Iran.

ALBMs, cruise missiles hitting Iran's oil and gas infrastructure would do a lot of damage. 18.3% of Iran's GDP comes from oil rent.

 

[Amarante]

We do not know much about Israel's long range capabilities. Since Iran is their main enemy, they would have some solutions that do not just involve long range aircraft like the F-15E. At least we know they already have long range drones, cruise missiles and the Jericho ballistic missile. So, at the very least, it's similar to what Iran has, and with greater sophistication.

As for South Lebanon, the Israeli Army has the potential, but it depends on how much they focus on that objective. Typically they prefer to do a lot of damage and then leave. But if they plan to take the river and maintain a buffer zone, then they have the ability to do it. Unlike Hezbollah, the Older Forum is a proper army.

The biggest problem Iran has is it lacks an air force. They are entirely reliant on air defense. That gives them minimal options.

The US has the ability to defeat Iran, but don't have the stomach for it in terms of casualties if they want to occupy the country. If they only want to destroy Iran, change regime and leave, then it's definitely doable with minimal casualties, like they did during the Gulf War. Iran's missiles and air defenses are fine, but they need a proper air force if they want to hit American logistics and depth areas. Minimum 300 fighter jets, many logistics aircraft, force multipliers etc, and NATO-standard training. Iran's definitely not ready to fight the US, not even Israel.

In any case, whatever happens, I'm hoping there's little to no impact on the oil and gas trade.

Israel has also « boots on the ground », meaning mossad and mandatories, for sabotage or striking hvt.
Lets not forget stuxnet-like ops.
Options that I hope would not be perceived as an escalation but as a retaliation, nor would they lead to a conflagration in the region.

Israel could respond by taking out their refineries and oil and gas facilties.

View attachment 36677

Then Iran, or yemeni proxy, would strike Saudi, emirati (etc) refineries. As they did once at least (2022?). But at a bigger scale. The Iranians have already warned.
It would be interesting to observe, and better prevent by preventing strikes, the Houthis reaction, if Israel retaliates to the Iranian strikes.

 

[BMD]

Israel has also « boots on the ground », meaning mossad and mandatories, for sabotage or striking hvt.
Lets not forget stuxnet-like ops.
Options that I hope would not be perceived as an escalation but as a retaliation, nor would they lead to a conflagration in the region.

Then Iran, or yemeni proxy, would strike Saudi, emirati (etc) refineries. As they did once at least (2022?). But at a bigger scale. The Iranians have already warned.
It would be interesting to observe, and better prevent by preventing strikes, the Houthis reaction, if Israel retaliates to the Iranian strikes.

The US are prepared for that this time though, as are the Saudis and I suspect the Houthis are on borrowed time as it is - as soon as the current situations die down they are going - that much was decided after they started attacking ships. Nobody is going to tolerate that every time Hamas does something stupid.

It would also be Iran starting a war with Saudi Arabia. Such a direct response would make the Houthis part of Iran.

Looks like they're preparing for that anyway.

AH-64 Apaches Practice Shooting Down Drones With Hellfire Missiles In Saudi Arabia

While it's not widely known, internationally the AH-64 has established itself in the counter-drone air defense role.

www.twz.com

 

[Bon Plan]

The United States does not have the ability to launch a second Iraq war, and Iran's war potential is ten times that of Iraq. Apart from anything else, Iran's medium-range missile strike capability demonstrated on October 1 is something Iraq has never had. The probability of the United States and Israel intercepting these missiles is not even 20%.

The accuracy of the iranian missiles is on question.
Even is they lauched all ther stock pile I don't see many damage.

 

[BMD]

World Braces For Israel's Retaliation To Iran's Ballistic Missile Barrage

Israel has vowed to strike back after Iran's missile barrage and signs point to its response being far more significant than the one last April.

www.twz.com

 

[Bon Plan]

Iran is a abomination & need to be neutralized completely.... This is the best opportunity to do so.

The latest opportunity to halt their nuke program before they end it !
I hope Israel to bomb all the nuclear plants and R&D centers.

 

[South block]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1841509371953439043

 

[Bon Plan]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1841509371953439043

As chinese one.

 

[Amarante]

(…) It would also be Iran starting a war with Saudi Arabia. (…)

Perhaps from the Iranian point of view, it is the Saudis who have started a war: the Iranians could argue that in Lebanon the Israelis are working on behalf of the Saudis, like a proxy, since Iran and the Saudis have been fighting over leadership in Lebanon since the Syrians left.

 

[Amarante]

don’t know if it’s been mentioned, dated 01.10

U.S. Air Force A-10C, F-16C and F-15E Deploying to the Middle East as Iran Launches Ballistic Missiles Attack on Israel

Three more U.S. Air Force squadrons are being deployed to the CENTCOM AOR as Iran threatened and launched a massive attack on Israel with ballistic

theaviationist.com

and for the record, same date:

 

[Soldier35]

The Israeli army demonstrated the use of UH-60A Yanshuf 3 helicopters and CH-53K King Stallion helicopters to evacuate the wounded. Both helicopters are American-made. In the video, the 669th Air Rescue and Evacuation Unit evacuates wounded soldiers from Lebanon. Initially, the unit rescued downed pilots behind the front line, but gradually the tasks expanded to evacuate soldiers. Let me remind you that Merkava Mk.IV tanks are currently on the border with Lebanon, and they may have already entered the adjacent territory.

 

[BMD]

Perhaps from the Iranian point of view, it is the Saudis who have started a war: the Iranians could argue that in Lebanon the Israelis are working on behalf of the Saudis, like a proxy, since Iran and the Saudis have been fighting over leadership in Lebanon since the Syrians left.

That's a crap argument. The war in Lebanon only started because Hezbollah attacked Israel, even if the whole Saudi proxy held any water, which it doesn't.

Iran has made a huge mistake by retaliating directly for a strike on Hezbollah. Once you retaliate directly on behalf of a proxy, it's no longer a proxy, it's you and you can be held directly accountable internationally for the actions of that proxy in the future. And since the Houthis have acted in unison with Hezbollah, pretty soon a lot of very angry countries will start holding Iran accountable for their attacks on shipping.

don’t know if it’s been mentioned, dated 01.10

U.S. Air Force A-10C, F-16C and F-15E Deploying to the Middle East as Iran Launches Ballistic Missiles Attack on Israel

Three more U.S. Air Force squadrons are being deployed to the CENTCOM AOR as Iran threatened and launched a massive attack on Israel with ballistic

theaviationist.com

and for the record, same date:

Ellsworth’s B-1B Lancers Practice Long-Range Strikes with JASSMs in Full-Scale Readiness Exercise Raider Reach

Raider Reach evaluated Ellsworth’s capability to generate and execute long-range strikes around the globe with the B-1B through realistic combat and

theaviationist.com

 

[BMD]

Claims Swirl Around Israeli Strikes Very Near Russia's Air Base In Syria

Targeting weapons bound for Hezbollah, Israel appears to have struck very close or within Russia’s Khmeimim Air Base in Syria. Targeting weapons bound for Hezbollah, Israel appears to have struck very close or within Russia’s Khmeimim Air Base in Syria.

www.twz.com

https://twitter.com/x/status/1841844476433531085

Nobody deserves this more that Russia, they are the primary architect of all this chaos.