There's another fallacy here which needs debunking & which this government hasn't done anything to eliminate such a thought. It's not the prospect of victory but the cost of it too which the Chinese would've factored in.
Let's say that if they were convinced this is going to be a pyrrhic victory, would they actually go thru with what they've presently undertaken? Here's where our government ought to have taken a leaf from the Paxtani playbook.
Unfortunately, the impression we've given the world, not just the Chinese is we're anxious to achieve peace. The Chinese will take it to mean at any cost & that's precisely what's being negotiated on the LAC with those various meetings between corps commanders & what have you.
Another problem with those tactical retreats which is eventually how this will be sold by this government & it's apologists as similar moves in the past have been sold with due process followed which in turn has been pounced upon by their critics as this will be too, is that there's no day of reckoning being considered either on the Western or the Eastern front. Merely more tactical retreats .
@Falcon
Our entire pre summer of 2020 was predicated on the premise that China won't cross the LAC because the Chinese don't want war which is why our armed forces babus & netas were caught sleeping on the job / with their pants / dhotis down ( take your pick) .China does not want war
Simply because they Cannot Hide
Their Military casualties any longer
They had a very tough time hiding
Casualties last time in Galwan
And that conflict happened when our troops were simply unprepared and ambushed
Given the Terrain of LAC , and the close deployment the casualties will be huge
All the beautiful homes
They have built in Ladakh will be blown up
China can replace Tanks and Aircrafts but cannot easily replace Trained soldiers
A large number of Chinese casualties
Will boost the morale of Taiwan , Japan and other Asian countries
Chinese aura of Invincibility will be destroyed
Our entire pre summer of 2020 was predicated on the premise that China won't cross the LAC because the Chinese don't want war which is why our armed forces babus & netas were caught sleeping on the job / with their pants / dhotis down ( take your pick) .
Post summer of 2020 they've changed their views considerably after a rude awakening. When will you?
There's another fallacy here which needs debunking & which this government hasn't done anything to eliminate such a thought. It's not the prospect of victory but the cost of it too which the Chinese would've factored in.
Let's say that if they were convinced this is going to be a pyrrhic victory, would they actually go thru with what they've presently undertaken? Here's where our government ought to have taken a leaf from the Paxtani playbook.
Unfortunately, the impression we've given the world, not just the Chinese is we're anxious to achieve peace. The Chinese will take it to mean at any cost & that's precisely what's being negotiated on the LAC with those various meetings between corps commanders & what have you.
Another problem with those tactical retreats which is eventually how this will be sold by this government & it's apologists as similar moves in the past have been sold with due process followed which in turn has been pounced upon by their critics as this will be too, is that there's no day of reckoning being considered either on the Western or the Eastern front. Merely more tactical retreats .
@Falcon
Cost to China is the first thing their Party would have considered. Loss of face is a huge taboo for them, all things are secondary. The party cannot be seen being wrong.
Having said that, if you see their responses they seem to be sure of their ability to winning a limited conflict. Their confidence is in part built up by GoI's desire for peace like you pointed but it cannot be the only reason.
To impose costs on China, India will have to raise the stakes, open other fronts. Is India willing to up things a notch?
Despite the obvious similarities, I have doubts on the Pindi playbook. That has a risk of becoming obsessed with your larger neighbor and that hasn't gone too well for our not so friendly neighbor.
Yes they definitely factored it in & in the event while not everything has gone according to their plan some of it has . Then again we don't know what their goals were & whether they have been achieved.Cost to China is the first thing their Party would have considered. Loss of face is a huge taboo for them, all things are secondary. The party cannot be seen being wrong.
I think they've sized up Modi much better than we give them credit for. I wonder how much has our non response to Pindi's bluster on 27th Feb played a part.Having said that, if you see their responses they seem to be sure of their ability to winning a limited conflict. Their confidence is in part built up by GoI's desire for peace like you pointed but it cannot be the only reason.
Without a major conflagration on the LAC we can only posture . Then again for all it's bluster I'm not confident this government will escalate issues . That's precisely playing into Chinese hands & what they're counting on .To impose costs on China, India will have to raise the stakes, open other fronts. Is India willing to up things a notch?
Not necessarily . Every escalation from their side should have been met with twice as much from our end . This is a long term game . Ever since they started challenging us again on the LAC beginning 2006 , we ought to have done it . If not in 2006 then certainly a few years later once the pattern was clear.Despite the obvious similarities, I have doubts on the Pindi playbook. That has a risk of becoming obsessed with your larger neighbor and that hasn't gone too well for our not so friendly neighbor.
Frankly from your diagnosis, I don't think you've understood both - the problem or my posts on the matter.![]()
Joint PLA drill in Tibet sends strong warning to India, say analysts
During the training over two days and one night, combined forces carried out a shell raid, electromagnetic attack, observation and espionage, according to CCTV.amp.scmp.com
We should make the Best possible preparation for War with China but
Stop portraying them as 10 Feet Tall
Frankly from your diagnosis, I don't think you've understood both - the problem or my posts on the matter.
I am only interested in seeing whether
China starts a Shooting Conflict before 15 th November ie when Winter starts
And if Not , I would like to say that the Chinese are Cowards
Every other discussion is Moot
They dont give a rats behind what you think of them. They are looking to achieve their objectives without a shooting war since they want to dump their cheap goods in our markets. Even if they meet 50% of their goals in this round they will call it a win and then try again sometime later.
We think of conflicts with hard boundaries - must have a cause, must have a firm outcome. They understand conflicts are hazy and ever changing and try to use it to their advantage.
At any point of time you can call most of the world as cowards. But the question is if they are cowards then what is stopping us from giving them a sound thrashing. Why would they need to shoot us if they can economically run us out to bankrupt state. We can extend the same logic to pakistan as well.And if Not , I would like to say that the Chinese are Cowards
At any point of time you can call most of the world as cowards. But the question is if they are cowards then what is stopping us from giving them a sound thrashing. Why would they need to shoot us if they can economically run us out to bankrupt state. We can extend the same logic to pakistan as well.
dude , you are making lot of sweeping statements which are bereft of full facts. They are radicalized no doubt about that but to say they are weak for us to run over them is not right. Indian still relies on imports for most of the critical goods , as long as that continues fighting a long war is simply not feasible.Pakistani population is Incompetent because they are uneducated
dude , you are making lot of sweeping statements which are bereft of full facts. They are radicalized no doubt about that but to say they are weak for us to run over them is not right. Indian still relies on imports for most of the critical goods , as long as that continues fighting a long war is simply not feasible.
China does not want war
Simply because they Cannot Hide
Their Military casualties any longer
They had a very tough time hiding
Casualties last time in Galwan
There were already inputs of Chinese planning something from friendly countries most probably. But Indian government did not realize specially those who analyzed the inputs this and this is why NTRO got the new chief. The Chinese came to analyse what India could do and then fight war.
The chinese thought that India will not retaliate massively due to pandemic. Their plan was good but Indians are unpredictable.
And they will come again when you have weak leadership. Because in a democratic country like India its not certain that all governments will have same decision on a particular situation.
I said, it's a possibility.Shri Shri, care to elaborate on the inputs from "friendly agencies" please? Also because NTRO would it not be Military Intelligence which would be on point for evaluating the intel?
Since the Galwan incident, there is hardly any face-off happening. It seems that IA has told the PLA in no uncertain terms that a preemptive use of firearms is now an option in every case.If at all , there was a point when India was at its weakest and unprepared
It was in MAY 2020
But today inspite of All the Force mobilization and creation of Infrastructure , China is Negotiating with
India for dis engagement
What does that tell about their
WILL to fight
In war , Will is as Important as abilities
As we have seen in Afghanistan , how a 3 lakh strong Army lost its will to fight
China lost its will after Pangong Tso incident in August 2020
And Today we are far better placed than in May 2020
In addition to China , even Pak Army has been pounded into Submission
It Was Pakistan which forced USA to broker a Ceasefire in Feb 21