Line of Actual Control (LAC) : India & Tibet Border Updates

[STEPHEN COHEN]

Hot Springs | India-China to hold 13th military commander-level talks for disengagement from Hot Springs friction point soon | India News

India and China will address disengagement from the Hot Springs friction point in the 13th round of military commander-level talks expected to be held soon.

www.google.com

 

[STEPHEN COHEN]

There's another fallacy here which needs debunking & which this government hasn't done anything to eliminate such a thought. It's not the prospect of victory but the cost of it too which the Chinese would've factored in.

Let's say that if they were convinced this is going to be a pyrrhic victory, would they actually go thru with what they've presently undertaken? Here's where our government ought to have taken a leaf from the Paxtani playbook.

Unfortunately, the impression we've given the world, not just the Chinese is we're anxious to achieve peace. The Chinese will take it to mean at any cost & that's precisely what's being negotiated on the LAC with those various meetings between corps commanders & what have you.

Another problem with those tactical retreats which is eventually how this will be sold by this government & it's apologists as similar moves in the past have been sold with due process followed which in turn has been pounced upon by their critics as this will be too, is that there's no day of reckoning being considered either on the Western or the Eastern front. Merely more tactical retreats .

@Falcon

China does not want war

Simply because they Cannot Hide
Their Military casualties any longer

They had a very tough time hiding
Casualties last time in Galwan

And that conflict happened when our troops were simply unprepared and ambushed

Given the Terrain of LAC , and the close deployment the casualties will be huge

All the beautiful homes
They have built in Ladakh will be blown up

China can replace Tanks and Aircrafts but cannot easily replace Trained soldiers

A large number of Chinese casualties
Will boost the morale of Taiwan , Japan and other Asian countries

Chinese aura of Invincibility will be destroyed

https://twitter.com/x/status/1430162720649846790

 

[_Anonymous_]

China does not want war

Simply because they Cannot Hide
Their Military casualties any longer

They had a very tough time hiding
Casualties last time in Galwan

And that conflict happened when our troops were simply unprepared and ambushed

Given the Terrain of LAC , and the close deployment the casualties will be huge

All the beautiful homes
They have built in Ladakh will be blown up

China can replace Tanks and Aircrafts but cannot easily replace Trained soldiers

A large number of Chinese casualties
Will boost the morale of Taiwan , Japan and other Asian countries

Chinese aura of Invincibility will be destroyed

https://twitter.com/x/status/1430162720649846790

Our entire pre summer of 2020 was predicated on the premise that China won't cross the LAC because the Chinese don't want war which is why our armed forces babus & netas were caught sleeping on the job / with their pants / dhotis down ( take your pick) .

Post summer of 2020 they've changed their views considerably after a rude awakening. When will you?

 

[STEPHEN COHEN]

Joint PLA drill in Tibet sends strong warning to India, say analysts

During the training over two days and one night, combined forces carried out a shell raid, electromagnetic attack, observation and espionage, according to CCTV.

amp.scmp.com

Our entire pre summer of 2020 was predicated on the premise that China won't cross the LAC because the Chinese don't want war which is why our armed forces babus & netas were caught sleeping on the job / with their pants / dhotis down ( take your pick) .

Post summer of 2020 they've changed their views considerably after a rude awakening. When will you?

We should make the Best possible preparation for War with China but
Stop portraying them as 10 Feet Tall

 

[Jaymax]

There's another fallacy here which needs debunking & which this government hasn't done anything to eliminate such a thought. It's not the prospect of victory but the cost of it too which the Chinese would've factored in.

Let's say that if they were convinced this is going to be a pyrrhic victory, would they actually go thru with what they've presently undertaken? Here's where our government ought to have taken a leaf from the Paxtani playbook.

Unfortunately, the impression we've given the world, not just the Chinese is we're anxious to achieve peace. The Chinese will take it to mean at any cost & that's precisely what's being negotiated on the LAC with those various meetings between corps commanders & what have you.

Another problem with those tactical retreats which is eventually how this will be sold by this government & it's apologists as similar moves in the past have been sold with due process followed which in turn has been pounced upon by their critics as this will be too, is that there's no day of reckoning being considered either on the Western or the Eastern front. Merely more tactical retreats .

@Falcon

Cost to China is the first thing their Party would have considered. Loss of face is a huge taboo for them, all things are secondary. The party cannot be seen being wrong.

Having said that, if you see their responses they seem to be sure of their ability to winning a limited conflict. Their confidence is in part built up by GoI's desire for peace like you pointed but it cannot be the only reason.

To impose costs on China, India will have to raise the stakes, open other fronts. Is India willing to up things a notch?

Despite the obvious similarities, I have doubts on the Pindi playbook. That has a risk of becoming obsessed with your larger neighbor and that hasn't gone too well for our not so friendly neighbor.

 

[STEPHEN COHEN]

Cost to China is the first thing their Party would have considered. Loss of face is a huge taboo for them, all things are secondary. The party cannot be seen being wrong.

Having said that, if you see their responses they seem to be sure of their ability to winning a limited conflict. Their confidence is in part built up by GoI's desire for peace like you pointed but it cannot be the only reason.

To impose costs on China, India will have to raise the stakes, open other fronts. Is India willing to up things a notch?

Despite the obvious similarities, I have doubts on the Pindi playbook. That has a risk of becoming obsessed with your larger neighbor and that hasn't gone too well for our not so friendly neighbor.

If at all , there was a point when India was at its weakest and unprepared
It was in MAY 2020

But today inspite of All the Force mobilization and creation of Infrastructure , China is Negotiating with
India for dis engagement

What does that tell about their
WILL to fight

In war , Will is as Important as abilities

As we have seen in Afghanistan , how a 3 lakh strong Army lost its will to fight

China lost its will after Pangong Tso incident in August 2020

And Today we are far better placed than in May 2020

In addition to China , even Pak Army has been pounded into Submission

It Was Pakistan which forced USA to broker a Ceasefire in Feb 21

 

[_Anonymous_]

Cost to China is the first thing their Party would have considered. Loss of face is a huge taboo for them, all things are secondary. The party cannot be seen being wrong.

Yes they definitely factored it in & in the event while not everything has gone according to their plan some of it has . Then again we don't know what their goals were & whether they have been achieved.

But I think too much has been made of "loss of face". Let's face it , the area is too remote for anyone outside the regular agencies dealing with it to know the facts on the ground. We're a democratic free society or at least we pride ourselves on it .

Yet how much does the ordinary Indian know of the true situation as it exists on the ground. For that matter let's talk about amateur defence enthusiasts like ourselves. How much do we know & what are our sources of knowledge ?

Now think of how effectively China can manage the problem assuming they're faced with a reversal of fortunes.

Having said that, if you see their responses they seem to be sure of their ability to winning a limited conflict. Their confidence is in part built up by GoI's desire for peace like you pointed but it cannot be the only reason.

I think they've sized up Modi much better than we give them credit for. I wonder how much has our non response to Pindi's bluster on 27th Feb played a part.

To impose costs on China, India will have to raise the stakes, open other fronts. Is India willing to up things a notch?

Without a major conflagration on the LAC we can only posture . Then again for all it's bluster I'm not confident this government will escalate issues . That's precisely playing into Chinese hands & what they're counting on .

Despite the obvious similarities, I have doubts on the Pindi playbook. That has a risk of becoming obsessed with your larger neighbor and that hasn't gone too well for our not so friendly neighbor.

Not necessarily . Every escalation from their side should have been met with twice as much from our end . This is a long term game . Ever since they started challenging us again on the LAC beginning 2006 , we ought to have done it . If not in 2006 then certainly a few years later once the pattern was clear.

Instead we got boxed in by both a belligerent Pakistan & China & came out with a dossier exchange policy with Pakistan while signing even more agreements with China on maintaining peace & tranquility on the LAC without delineating it . The results are before you .

 

[_Anonymous_]

Joint PLA drill in Tibet sends strong warning to India, say analysts

During the training over two days and one night, combined forces carried out a shell raid, electromagnetic attack, observation and espionage, according to CCTV.

amp.scmp.com

We should make the Best possible preparation for War with China but
Stop portraying them as 10 Feet Tall

Frankly from your diagnosis, I don't think you've understood both - the problem or my posts on the matter.

 

[STEPHEN COHEN]

Frankly from your diagnosis, I don't think you've understood both - the problem or my posts on the matter.

I am only interested in seeing whether
China starts a Shooting Conflict before 15 th November ie when Winter starts

And if Not , I would like to say that the Chinese are Cowards

Every other discussion is Moot

 

[Jaymax]

I am only interested in seeing whether
China starts a Shooting Conflict before 15 th November ie when Winter starts

And if Not , I would like to say that the Chinese are Cowards

Every other discussion is Moot

They dont give a rats behind what you think of them. They are looking to achieve their objectives without a shooting war since they want to dump their cheap goods in our markets. Even if they meet 50% of their goals in this round they will call it a win and then try again sometime later.

We think of conflicts with hard boundaries - must have a cause, must have a firm outcome. They understand conflicts are hazy and ever changing and try to use it to their advantage.

 

[STEPHEN COHEN]

They dont give a rats behind what you think of them. They are looking to achieve their objectives without a shooting war since they want to dump their cheap goods in our markets. Even if they meet 50% of their goals in this round they will call it a win and then try again sometime later.

We think of conflicts with hard boundaries - must have a cause, must have a firm outcome. They understand conflicts are hazy and ever changing and try to use it to their advantage.

FYI , A complete De Coupling with Chinese Manufacturing will Not Happen soon

FYI , China sees India' s PLI scheme as a threat to their own Manufacturing Capabilities

‘China sees PLI scheme as a threat. The govt should step on the gas’

The global order is changing, people are looking at a China Plus One strategy. India is showing a lot of potential under these circumstances.

www.google.com

 

[_Anonymous_]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1431293488692441091

 

[jetray]

And if Not , I would like to say that the Chinese are Cowards

At any point of time you can call most of the world as cowards. But the question is if they are cowards then what is stopping us from giving them a sound thrashing. Why would they need to shoot us if they can economically run us out to bankrupt state. We can extend the same logic to pakistan as well.

 

[STEPHEN COHEN]

At any point of time you can call most of the world as cowards. But the question is if they are cowards then what is stopping us from giving them a sound thrashing. Why would they need to shoot us if they can economically run us out to bankrupt state. We can extend the same logic to pakistan as well.

Indian Economy has attained a certain
Level of Strength and Maturity , where we can absorb the additional defence expenditure due to Chinese belligerence

Pakistan is a different case

Their economy collapsed NOT due to an arms race with India but because Investment in Jihad gave Negative Returns

Pakistani population is Incompetent because they are uneducated

They cannot think beyond Religion and Jihad

The biggest blow to Pakistan came from the Aftermath of 9 / 11 , which pushed them deeper into Radicalization

 

[jetray]

Pakistani population is Incompetent because they are uneducated

dude , you are making lot of sweeping statements which are bereft of full facts. They are radicalized no doubt about that but to say they are weak for us to run over them is not right. Indian still relies on imports for most of the critical goods , as long as that continues fighting a long war is simply not feasible.

 

[STEPHEN COHEN]

dude , you are making lot of sweeping statements which are bereft of full facts. They are radicalized no doubt about that but to say they are weak for us to run over them is not right. Indian still relies on imports for most of the critical goods , as long as that continues fighting a long war is simply not feasible.

The Gist of All Discussion here is that since India is Not opening Fire on The Chinese at Ladakh , it means we have surrendered

That is such a huge insult to the Lakhs of soldiers on LAC

My counter question is simple

Now that US has proved itself to be A Useless Ally , What Prevents China
And Pakistan to start a Two Front war immediately

Who is stopping them

 

[screambowl]

China does not want war

Simply because they Cannot Hide
Their Military casualties any longer

They had a very tough time hiding
Casualties last time in Galwan

There were already inputs of Chinese planning something from friendly countries most probably. But Indian government did not realize specially those who analyzed the inputs this and this is why NTRO got the new chief. The Chinese came to analyse what India could do and then fight war.
The chinese thought that India will not retaliate massively due to pandemic. Their plan was good but Indians are unpredictable.

And they will come again when you have weak leadership. Because in a democratic country like India its not certain that all governments will have same decision on a particular situation.

 

[Jaymax]

There were already inputs of Chinese planning something from friendly countries most probably. But Indian government did not realize specially those who analyzed the inputs this and this is why NTRO got the new chief. The Chinese came to analyse what India could do and then fight war.
The chinese thought that India will not retaliate massively due to pandemic. Their plan was good but Indians are unpredictable.

And they will come again when you have weak leadership. Because in a democratic country like India its not certain that all governments will have same decision on a particular situation.

Shri Shri, care to elaborate on the inputs from "friendly agencies" please? Also because NTRO would it not be Military Intelligence which would be on point for evaluating the intel?

 

[screambowl]

Shri Shri, care to elaborate on the inputs from "friendly agencies" please? Also because NTRO would it not be Military Intelligence which would be on point for evaluating the intel?

I said, it's a possibility.

Chinese planned it, no bells ringing
Chinese moved its forces no bells ringing
Chinese intruded no bells ringing.

There are only four possibilities.

Both the countries staged it to divert from Corona
The JIC got the inputs they ignored.
The inputs weren't satisfying.
They got the inputs , they started planing and the result is in front of you.

 

[Golden_Rule]

If at all , there was a point when India was at its weakest and unprepared
It was in MAY 2020

But today inspite of All the Force mobilization and creation of Infrastructure , China is Negotiating with
India for dis engagement

What does that tell about their
WILL to fight

In war , Will is as Important as abilities

As we have seen in Afghanistan , how a 3 lakh strong Army lost its will to fight

China lost its will after Pangong Tso incident in August 2020

And Today we are far better placed than in May 2020

In addition to China , even Pak Army has been pounded into Submission

It Was Pakistan which forced USA to broker a Ceasefire in Feb 21

Since the Galwan incident, there is hardly any face-off happening. It seems that IA has told the PLA in no uncertain terms that a preemptive use of firearms is now an option in every case.