First things first. No country has recorded 8-10% growth consecutively over more than a decade or two without being a major export economy. We aren't one.
That paper you've quoted from points out precisely that we will grow but not at stratospheric rates of 9% + continuously as China or Japan & RoK previously did but that our growth story will be much more subdued and stretched over a longer period of time. Modi plans to make India a 5 trillion USD economy by 2024 . I'm saying even if he gets us to 4 trillion, it'd be a huge achievement.
We do not have to grow at 9 or even 10%, we only need 7 or 8% growth. But what has to rise is our personal income rates. Personal income is where tax growth comes from. And that's where the defence budget comes from.
When an additional 400M people entering the middle class pay taxes of Rs 10,000 per year, we get an additional $60B from income tax alone. Indirect tax rate could be even higher. Now if some of these 400M people are billionaires, then excellent, we only need a few hundred there. And this is separate from the other kinds of value they could add to the economy.
Mukesh Ambani plans to cut down RIL's portfolio of oil, gas & petrochemicals to less than a third of his company's revenues by 2047. Yes, you heard it here first. Secondly , he plans to utilise his digital empire to become the number one content provider apart from becoming the number one retailer in the B2C segment. What's more he's going to tie up with Alibaba soon for a massive thrust into the B2B segment in India. Once he achieves this, he's going to utilize this as a springboard to achieving the same in Africa and then the rest of Asia before moving on to Europe and so on . You've heard this first up here too. But hang on, what are the plans for manufacturing all those consumer durables like say electronics ? Nil. Zero. Nada. He's going to source them from the cheapest source. Read China. Hence Alibaba.
All that's fine by me. I don't really care where the TV comes from, RIL is gonna get taxed in India anyway.
But I'm more interested in what our people do for their own careers. That's where the real money is.
The govt's plan is to send millions of people to foreign shores on short-term high-value consultation work with $100,000-$150,000 a year salaries. So if we have an average of 10 million people earning $100,000 in the US, EU, Japan, China etc on short term basis, the country earns forex of $1T a year.
Imagine if the number climbs to 20 million or 30 million, peanuts for India to send that many on short-term visas via mode 4. We will be getting that many college graduates every year.
Value added service is much better than value added goods.
And the Chinese are going to be too rich to be making that many TVs anyway. In the next 5 years, they as well as the rest of the advanced world are going to face a massive labour shortage, and India is expected to supply.
We are way off topic though.
That $40B that Ambani spent on Jio is for India only, not the rest of the world.
And you have your trust imposed in a bania citing how this trader's success is going to propel the Indian economy into stratospheric heights where in three decades from now we'd be able to achieve procurement / manufacturing of 200 Rafales in a year.
Less than 2 decades.
And you have your trust imposed in a bania citing how this trader's success is going to propel the Indian economy into stratospheric heights where in three decades from now we'd be able to achieve procurement / manufacturing of 200 Rafales in a year.
You know what, you're right. While most of the advanced nations would be experimenting with 7th Gen TDs, we'd be manufacturing 200 x 4.5 generation FA in DRAL MIHAN Nagpur a la the MiG 21 bis we churned out in the late 80's when we should've been manufacturing either the M2K or MiG 29. Or even" developing the LCA full steam ahead after a successful HAL - Marut. "
200 Rafales, 200 AMCAs, 200 FCAS, who cares about the type, the magic number is 200.
Maybe even 200 Starship Enterprises.
Even after watching all the failure to procure over the years.