IAF in a Crisis
Well folks i dont know where to club and post this bcz of various topics it covers ...
Will try to cover most here
Genesis of the Single Engine Requirement
There was a time when an internal assessment was made by MOD approximately 2 years ago. The contents of many to and fro communication are pretty big but few of the points in nutshell is these below
- The communication to begin with states that IAF is skeptical on PAK-FA
- New improved counter measures in Rafale "N.V." is as good as a planned T-50.
- IAF recommends to buy more Rafale's or points of improvement for PAK-FA to make it better than Rafale "N.V."
- France especially Dassault team is asking a lot for ToT and its not even complete ToT
- Government is opposing everything non-ToT wise and has told explicitly that deal might break unless they understand the expectations and also reduce this demand for high cost.
- IAF is very interested in getting huge numbers of Rafales as per every communication (in excess of XXX stand alone for IAF and XXX for IN - thats the overall plan) but its ego is making them write checks that the government cant cash due to existing liabilities and commitments.
- The Su30 MKI were also IAF idea from start to finish contrary to the public opinion and perceptions.
- The MKI project no matter what anyone says in public is in deep shit
- Right now IAF have termed it as a liability on FW Bases
Thus this was the genesis for requirement of a western fighter cheaper than Rafale, better than LCA and should be capable enough to withstand missions which normally MKI could have taken.
Since FW bases liability is known, these birds will be basically placed there so they dont need long legs.. anything around a combat radii of 600-800 km is more or less fine but they should be ready for multiroles and fill in the gap of Mig21, Jags and MKIs ( CAS, CAP, DPSA partially and SEAD, DEAD + Air Superiority role secondary)
This prompted Parrikar to initiate the fighter replacement program and Single Engine Jet plan was mooted. Initially it was hoped that Gripen C/D will be bought and thats why IAF chief took it for a spin too. But lacunae were found in term of roles defined above.
All boiled down to F-16 Block 70 (rumour is that a block 80/82/84 is in works and will be offered as MLU or may be if we bargain hard it will come sooner, borrowing more sub systems from F-35) and Gripen E/F
Parrikar has stated that it will be cheaper to Rafale by at least 1/3rd and also a meaningful TOT could be obtained at a much lower cost addressing the core issues which teh letter raised above.
This will also facilitate easier access to funds and FGFA project which helps to consolidate India Russia relationship further and a long term support for MKI becomes easier to access.
Unfortunately Parrikar went back and what you see now is very marginal cost differential.. Much lesser than 33% planned and much lower access to technology as well.
Whats the status Now
- MKI status in temporary, FW bases will work with other aircrafts for now .
- Infact North of Delhi bases will be hosting two Tejas next week and seeing how this base comes under FSS (Facilitators Sharing Session) umbrella that is something to be said.
- France is flexible but they cant offer what F16 and Gripen are offering at a lower price.
- Talks went from give us full ToT for X billion to give us Max ToT for X-- billion. Stuck bcz of inflexibility
- PAK FA is stuck because of linking to new generation missiles in the bird and excess funding for its development.
- Keep in mind that this funding is not only for the PAK FA but also for the missiles so its quite expensive and had the missiles been bought alone there would have been a better discount.
These missiles are suppose to be used in Super MKI as well post upgrade.
This is the situation in hand
Fractured Thinking and Analysis
The best out of all according to IAF is France's deal and given that they will help with 5th gen platforms they say its worth it.
- But till now the Indian 5th Gen concept shared base with PAK FA and even AMCA gets most of the tech from this PAKFA only.
- A retake will take much more time and France does not have a 5th gen platform anything they will make will be based on Rafale in short term.
- There was an offer from them for pseudo stealth Rafale that used missile encloses but those lead to bad stability and handling.
- IF France does offer us something concrete to build on expertise of Rafale together with our vision, we can always do something about it.
Growing Indo US Relationship and gaining momentum for a Political Deal
- It is all a political game (Indo US relationship) and since India is not a military run country the recommendations of IAF are exactly only Rafales
- US stance for F16 is simple "Excellent Radar + LRM" (Long Range Missile in BVR)
- They plan to control India with these LRM supply.
- Integration of India/Russia weapons on F16 is at a stand still and at most the MRM might get integrated but LRM will be American sourced. (some missiles of say approx 40-60kms )
- The F35 is a carrot for the F16 deal they said in a meeting that the only thing that differentiates the F16 and the F35 mainly is the stealth and other bases remain the same so F35 adds "Stealth" to "Excellent Radar + LRM" giving access to no fly zones.
- If Rafale is 100% F16 with LRM would be 60-70% but cost wise more than 1 F16's would come under the same cost making F16's fleet more effective than a single Rafale squadron.
- That is the deep discount American are ready to give out in order to relocate the partial assembling and in turn control India.
- By ensuring almost all the parts are under USA MIC and only doing limited Assembling in India, LM hopes to reduce cost even further.
- What of course they wont say is the Opex costs over years and dependency on USA MIC
- To add to the hurt of France the new investigation includes Rafale, MKI and the retrofitted Jags. (since Darin 3 is proposed for just 65 Jags and even engine till now is not finalised)
- Investigation by MOD to find solutions and mix of options to address requirements and propose to IAF
Meanwhile back in USA...
Assessment
Its clear that there will be a more Political shift and with China Bogey its inevitable. What the above amendment clear is the CISMOA and BECA is clearly a part of initial baby steps but under Common Security Challenge the whole Umbrella of China Bogey is covered.. Under last point of any other matter appropriate means Pakistan is more or less covered along with another amendment which requires Secretary to certify their anti terror work for accessing funds
What also made situation worse for France and Dassault is DRAL does not have all technology access as well inspite of being a specialized factory in Dassault setup. You see that would have helped easily to push for costs saying money is going to Indian Pvt Sector instead of paying France directly and tieups to local ecosystem. Hence you have this situation. The cost escalation for TOT could have been justified if the local MIC was getting access, benefits and can use it for LCA and future versions and AMCA
This is the issue in hand.
Or else there is a high chance a political decision will come and IAF wont get birds of its choice.
A certain group wants Rafales for IAF curtailed at just 80 . 18 more options and another 36 outright and thats all.. the end of Rafale. It also favors American Jets for Navy and says it helps to strengthen the American Indian relationship further..
Thus we have the Crisis Situation in IAF. Linked deal in Russia, Conditional deal in USA, Expensive deal in France and Fractured deal in Sweden all have their evils. And Root of all these Evils is our Indecisiveness and inability to do what we set out to do in the first place.