MMRCA 2.0 - Updates and Discussions
- Thread starter Picdelamirand-oil
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To be announced again for the nth time sometimes this year.
Precisely. So how's it the GoI's fault then? The MMRCA tender was cancelled in 2016. The IAF was fast asleep till end 2021 when it woke up repeatedly mentioning to whomsoever was willing to listen - the dire need for the 114 nos MRFA which it termed intrinsic to it's perspective plans for the future of the IAF's war waging capabilities besides making up for fallen squadron nos.
It's been nearly 1.5 yrs since then, yet no RFP which surprisingly is almost completely a copy of the MMRCA 1.0.
Gov.
IAF is still fixed on MRFA/Rafale. They even forced the government to opt out of FGFA because of their love of MRFA/Rafale. That too despite high level committee headed by AM S. Varthman gave a go ahead to the project. This was way back in 2017, when J-20 was just entering active service. It was complete lack of foresight by IAF which led us towards currently getting outgunned by the Chinese VLO fighters.
Just read this article to know IAF's viewpoint:
Link of full article: IAF not in favour of acquiring Russian 5th gen jets, keen on DRDO Make in India project instead
Because of IAF's love...nay...obsession over MRFA/Rafale we are completely outclassed by the Chinese. Only plane that can give us parity or dominance against J-20 is Su-57M. MKI Upgrade and Rafale are only going to be effective to a level beyond which we shall need our own VLO fighters.
The issue is govt won't sign the bill & IAF won't either let it go after testing blood with rafale deal or go the indigenous way that Govt is pushing them into. There is no common ground between them & both are biding their time at present. You see PSC also recommended buying off the shelf product if deemed necessary. This is because current situation is compromising national security & govt is OK with this compromise. They have set an election mandate that is major part of their campaign that India under NDA rule have self sufficiency in arms. If major imports like MRFA is signed now, it will completely ruin their set mandate. They will lose face to their voters.
^^ Forgot to mention about the mandatory full ToT they are demanding, I am not sure but likely its the GOI side insisting & not the user. This could be a clever ploy that works both ways to ruin any chance of MRFA succeeding. Nobody will be doing that full ToT, so that pushes the MRFA to fail, and there the Govt side can say look we tried but without full ToT we won't sign off 114 jets bill. The best we can allow is G2G 1-2 squadron deal, which was our intention from the beginning anyway. What IAF can do in that case except for making noise in vain, which they are doing frequently? Ultimately its the Govt unwillingness to part with forex without much ToT gain is the reason MRFA won't progress beyond 26-36 jets deal. Nobody except the Rus will let us make modern jets locally.
I believe both AMCA & Ghatak will enter service around 2035..
Technology developed for it maybe used and verified earlier in mk2 and tedbf.
Future aircrafts will be of higher level maturity because of proven avionics.
We ll have avionics and weapons ready before the platform gets certified.
For the interim we need few advanced fighters..
Except F35, I think there is no stealth fighter on sale as of now to field against chinese.
I don't think Su 57 M will also be ready soon.
Until then Rafale is our best bet.
Technology developed for it maybe used and verified earlier in mk2 and tedbf.
Future aircrafts will be of higher level maturity because of proven avionics.
We ll have avionics and weapons ready before the platform gets certified.
For the interim we need few advanced fighters..
Except F35, I think there is no stealth fighter on sale as of now to field against chinese.
I don't think Su 57 M will also be ready soon.
Until then Rafale is our best bet.
To enlighten this debate, here is what Parikrama said on 15 July 2017:
Ultimately the GoI is responsible for the Defence of the nation with the IAF there to do the job with the tools provided , the providing of which is the GoI's responsibility . The key to the entire disagreement between the two to my mind lies in the fact that the IAF has been insisting on going in for the entire tender in one go with the GoI probably insisting on this being implemented in a piece meal manner following the MKI model we had with Russia with India inducting it in tranches . This much was indicated by the late Gen Rawat .
The IAF was vehemently against it where instead of merely protesting the IAF ought to have come out with their RFP placing it before the GoI for approval thereby putting the ball in rhe GoI's court thus pressurising the government of the day . Instead they went to sleep only to wake up towards the end of 2021. This course of action , in my view , is a fatal blunder on the part of the IAF.
From the IAF's PoV , their thinking is justified in the way they've been shortchanged beginning with the Mirage 2000 deal in the 1980s where we were supposed to import 80 odd followed by ToT & local mfg by HAL , a deal torpedoed at the eleventh hour by the then GoI where the Russians forcefully intervened coming out with a package deal of leasing India SSNs , helping India build it's own SSNs , sending the first Indian into space & offering the MiG-29 their latest state of the art Air Superiority Fighter then . With the result we had 2 types of FAs to take on the F-16s .
The next opportunity came in the early 2000s where impressed with the performance of the Mirage 2000 the IAF renewed it's attempts at getting GoI to go in for a G2G with France for a ToT for these Mirages to be manufactured by HAL . This got torpedoed once again thanks to an expose by the press here on the Coffins procurement scam which was a single vendor situation , during the Kargil war which saw the then defence minister George Fernandes resign only to be reinstated later .
The notion of another single vendor situation was too hot to handle then which prompted him to ask the IAF to launch the tender we now know as MMRCA where Dassault Aviation DA persuaded the IAF to consider the Rafales instead of the Mirages which they initially offered to India by shifting their entire production line here since they had transitioned into production of the Rafales but the deal came undone due to events described earlier . The rest is history.
In view of this history it's easy to see why the IAF's not exactly on the same page with the GoI as far as procurement of the FAs go by way of the MMRCA / MRFA . They've been repeatedly let down & given the vagaries of Indian politics they're not reassured that the GoI would honour it's commitments to the IAF of importing the complete tranches of the requisite numbers as projected , not ceasing it after only a couple of such imports .
This is where the disagreement becomes dangerous . This probably has more to do with the IAF's own assessment where they've sold the GoI the snake oil that PLAAF can't bring their full force to bear on India given the limitations of operations on the Tibetan plateau which in turn could be handled by the IAF on an as is basis which is to say that even as of now the IAF could have handled the threat with their current capabilities . This may have been corroborated with the comprehensive risk assessment the GoI may undertaken & here you are .
Ideally the IAF should've taken advantage of the incidents of 2020 to project the requirement of the MRFA as vital to their war waging abilities instead of adding on numbers to make up for falling squadrons.
The indigenization mantra is a talking point . It has virtually no purchase in the elections . Hell , it didn't have any bearing in the 1999 general elections where the BJP went to town after winning Kargil only to return with the sane numbers they did as in the previous elections or in 2009 where the GoI went to the polls on the back of the horrific 26/11 attacks with no retaliation whatsoever & retained power in spite of a bitter campaign by the BJP to indict the Congress of lapses on the national security front .
The reason they don't want to go ahead now is they don't want a repeat of the last election's Chowkidar Chor Hain which in their assessment may damage their chances this time
I'm more convinced than anything now as compared to before that the Su-57M would be making it's way to the IAF though all the principal actors are silent on it today namely the Governments of India & Russia , both the Air Forces , the MoD & the Russian Defense Ministry as well as Rosoboronexport.
That it still doesn't feature in the latest MRFA tender is evidence of it , that none of the principal actors are talking about it is further evidence of it .
This in turn could've queered the pitch as far as the MRFA tender goes what with all these varied requirements of the IAF namely - MRFA , Su-57M , AMCA Mk-1 & Mk-2 & the LCA Mk-2 becoming conflated & intertwined with one another from the GoI's PoV. That nearly all these programs are delayed are not helping matters in the least . In fact they're further complicating matters as capabilities of most of these platforms overlap with each other thus forcing the IAF to re look their final requirements. GoI looking at this confusion may be following their own agenda vide MoD , in variance with that of the IAF.
These are 2 separate requirements you're attempting to conflate. I think RST wrote a detailed post listing the reasons we walked out of the JV . I'm in concurrence with it . We weren't gaining anything out of it except financing their whole project while they were busy fleecing us like many a times before.
Inspite of everything if we haven't cancelled the agreement we have with them , it means we've kept our doors open as our fall back option for redundancy if our original plans failed to fructify or fructify on time .
I never said we don't need more Rafales. In fact, I fully support more Rafales for both IAF and IN.
But, I've been for past few months continued to debate and argue with everyone here that to stop J-20 and dominate it, we need a 5th gen bird in this very decade. F-35 is a no go for us because of "strings attached", then what are our options? Su-57M. Have we not opted out, we should have got few birds delivered from 2025 onwards.
And now that the Parliamentary Standing Committee has raised questions about 5th gen fighter procurement, which means that more and more people are getting the point across. The hoardes of J-20 are a serious threat to India and must be properly dealt with. No two ways about it.
Two separate and important requirements. But because of budgetary issues, IAF sacrificed one for the other. We needed both Rafale and FGFA in substantial numbers to dominate or even draw level with PLAAF.
Now with WS-15 engines, J-20 production has gone into overdrive and we have no answer for it. Thankfully the PSC has now realized this and lets see what they do about it in future.
Well , this is probably the outcome down here of what happens when there's no agreement between the principals & attendant logjam at the top - We get a plethora of conspiracy theories.
The GoI doesn't need to resort to subterfuge of the kind you're describing . All it needs to do is unilaterally cancel the requirements stating that this will now be met thru homegrown solutions vide the Mk-2 & AMCA & list the amount of savings in ForEx plus the benefits it'd have on local industries . That's it . No opposition worth it's salt would challenge this narrative however self serving it may be to the ruling party .
Agreed though it seems to be the opposite of what you've just argued in your previous post .
We walked out of the PAK FA / FGFA because of opacity in the project , a falling workshare hence zero learnings for our industrial ecosystem & importantly this wasn't the stealth platform in the way the IAF had envisaged it. Arguably there are disagreements between the Sukhoi design bureau & the RuAF themselves for look at the numbers the latter has ordered till date . It's only ~ 76 nos or thereabouts & these numbers are from before the war . That should tell you a story of it's own.
Agreed.
I was playing the devil's advocate, lol.
MRCA, plain and simple. IAF wanted non-Russian medium weight fighter that could do the same role of MKI with much higher sortie rate and reliability. At that time AL-31FP was also giving plenty of trouble. Only because of Parrikar sir, MKI's availability improved.
But since government wasn't committing fully to MRCA, IAF didn't feel like going ahead with another expensive high end Russian fighter. That decision is now haunting us because of rapid J-20 deployment by our eastern enemy.
PS: This is not my personal opinion. I support both Rafale and Su-57M. This is just my take on the situation in light of PSC observation regarding IAF needing 5th gen jets.
This is how Russians order. Su-30SM and Su-35S both got even lesser initial order than 76. But now they are the tip of RuAF both qualitatively and quantitatively. Once Type-30 matures, rest assured that RuAF will most definitely order plenty of Su-57Ms.
IAF having no alternative to MRFA to make up for squadron numbers also plays a part. They have put all their eggs in one basket & absolutely do not want to consider a second option to it to address thee problem in short term. They would rather risk a Balakot like situation to coax the govt into spending.
Govt is also a part of the problem. A simpler deal with manufacturing in France but whole Repair, overhaul & upgrade capability in India along with 100% spares parts localisation should have been the goal. That would have allowed the deal to be signed in 2014-15 itself.
We would have had 126 Rafales in our inventory now.
But people want to recreate the Su30MKI experience with French.
A Su30MKI from Irkut costs less than 45 million USD. Same from HAL costs double.
Just think what an assembled Rafale will cost in India. And that is the biggest hurdle for Finance approval.
What suitable alternative do you see in the short term to the Rafales? A decade ago too the same situation prevailed. It was either the Russians or the Americans or the Europeans .
With the Russians out of the reckoning because they'd fallen behind the technological curve & their funny business over the years milking us to the hilt & the Americans with their fickle policies , the only way forward was either indigenously or with the Europeans .
A decade later the same situation prevails. Basically , besides the IN nobody has been involved in indigenous programs with a deep sense of commitment in it apart from having alternative plans to cater to contingencies. This is a transitory phase & will last for another 3-4 decades before we attain true atma nirbharta in every aspect of any given service be it platforms , armaments , support structures , etc . The IN hopes to do so by 2047 .
Arguably , the IN itself often slips up on their schedules & performance metrics as well in spite of being the only service with a much better track record in handling this transitory phase but the other two services are so pathetic that the IN with it's above mediocre performance looks like a champion .
Another aspect which is going against the IAF is their perceived intransigence on the theatre command issue which is trying the patience of the government & other services . It's an agglomeration of all these issues - known & unknown which is going against the IAF.
Expediting tejas mk2 + adding extra orders for su30 2 sqn & mk1a 2 sqn extra each as interim measure. Maybe consider 2nd hand options.
We lost several jets in last 12 months alone but no plans yet to even filling those numbers and even the planned 12 jet acquisition programs are shelved. All this at a time when a lot of nations are buying weapons. I get it GOI is happy that China has heat in its eastern shore so they might not suddenly attack in our northeast, but why stop planned acquisitions just because those are from Russia, just to prove we do not want war?
Ironically at the time of evaluations the Eurofighter was considered to be the top contender with many in the IAF backing it to win .
Besides I really don't see the connection between the 4.5 Gen + FA acquisition program vide MMRCA / MRFA & our aborted JV with Russia for the FGFA though you're trying your best to link up both.
Let's forget what happened in the past for a moment & focus on MP since you brought his name up. He came up with a via media called Mk-1a & Mk-2 which is what the LCA was originally touted to be 2000 onwards By the time he came in or around that time the decision to back off from the FGFA was already taken by the IAF in tandem with the MoD.
The decision to get the IAF on board for the remaining indigenous programs namely the Mk-2 & the green light to the AMCA project was taken under his stewardship. Ditto for the Mk-1a .
I see the GoI not objecting to the MRFA but to the manner in which the IAF wants to go about it namely thru tendering all quantities in one go . Given our experiences with ToT , offsets & JVs have been bitter , the GoI can't bring itself to go in for a single shot tender of all qtys as that would involve a huge CAPEX outflow in a ltd span of time & "mandatory" local production which the government can't shrug away given the past precedents & the amount of damage the opposition would cause accusing the government of the day of sabotaging DPSUs in case the GoI does away with local production .
Ideally the government should grasp the bull by it's horns & call out the BS pointing out to the MKIs & how we're shelling out twice what we ought to be paying had we imported them from Russia. But for some reasons known & unknown the GoI has not chosen that path.
Whether the J-20 is really as good as you think they are is something time will tell. The IAF seems convinced the Rafales can do the job against them . I'm of the view we ought to evaluate the Su-57M & get them in if they're as good as the Russians claim it is provided we get what the Russians are getting & not monkey models.
As of now with their economy going down they don't have a choice but to go in for more Su-57M given they won't have the resources to go in for a 6th Gen FA irrespective of whatever fluff they put out .
This could probably be the last of their cutting edge state of the art programs they'd run in a long long time , I'm anticipating.