Pakistan deep state knows its limitation but also need to maintain relevancy. They have actively use religion and being right card far too many times in history. Madarssas were equipped to mold sentiments to wage war in Afghanistan, and then to wage war on India.
Both the times, Pakistanis find it their rightful duty to fight, though it was always vested interests. Pakistan can not say quit, only Pakistanis can. And that time will come.
If Pakistanis haven't been able to wrest the right to their own destiny in 70 years, what makes you so optimistic they'd be able to do so in the near to not so near future?
I feel they do not want to bleed us but to fuel themselves to continue with their tirade. Give legitimacy to a cause (artificially created), once India react, create a bogey.
It's both.
We are missing China factor. Our economy was always enough to take on Pakistan but calculations fails while envisaging scenario where China can pitch in. With increasing interest of China in building her own left and right hands, we would need further parity with China and geo political clout to keep China at bay if at all we had to go into conflict with Pakistan.
I didn't miss the China factor. Nor did India's security managers. Prior to the CPEC, it was felt that China would fight India to the last Pakistani. With the initiation of the CPEC, India isn't too sure. I doubt China after having seen the execution of the CPEC is going to sit back and see India dismember Pakistan.
The window of opportunity for India to seize PoK is realistically another 5 years. However, given Pakistan's hesitancy with the financial implications of the CPEC, it'd be another year or two before we are sure of what exactly the commitment levels of Pakistan's rulers are ( I mean both the civilian administration & the deep state) .
The situation in our immediate & extended neighborhood is far too fluid & dynamic for any firm calculations to be made & with Trump in, it's going to turn even more volatile.
I would bet on making our self strong to a level that any war on us become too costly to enemy, rest time will do its trick.
Let's be realistic. The day India goes into a two front war, either it's going to turn Nuclear or India'd lose it. As of now, we can fight Pakistan but wouldn't get the desired results. If we were to face off with China, we'd be lucky to have a statemate. And I mean were we to confront both separately.
And we can't keep on taking punishment indefinitely. The bigger the terrorist outrage in Kashmir, along the LoC or anywhere in India gives the government of India that much lesser space to manoeuvre. We can't continue in the same vein forever.
Nuclear threat is a big sham. Even if majority claim that they can die for religious reason and achieve heaven, the guys actually having the button already enjoying heaven on earth, they wont risk it.
Moreover, the fear of death is real. Those 90K laid their arms then to take a bullet in head.
I don't think one can be too sure. Prina facie, when you are war gaming against a N armed opponent, you have to consider the worst case scenario.
Slight difference in opinion I have here. As I said its only Pakistanis that can defeat their deep state of continuously dragging them in conflicts and making them live a life of hitmen. Engaging them as well as them getting lessor religious and more interested in this life, can force establishment to stop hostility as it wont get them big dividend.
Frankly, as of now, the only way Pakistanis can rid themselves of the disastrous effect the deep state has brought up on the Pakistanis is if India defeats them. I can't see any other way for the ordinary Pakistani to be rid of such an odious and parasitic element, otherwise.
Moreover, you seem to be lsbouring under the mistaken impresion that the ordinary Pakistani wants Peace. They do but with the accession of Kashmir to the state of Pakistan.
Goebbels remarked - If a lie is repeated a thousand times, it becomes the truth. That's exactly the kind of brainwashing Pakistanis have been subjected to. The kind which sees the insurrection in Balochistan & KPK as terrorism but Kashmir as a jihad.
Can we do that to such a scale to bring favourable results? Not sure.
Can Aman ki aasha like platform can do so? Definitely not.
Shall we stop trying? No.
You have been trying since the last 70 years. What's come out of it? How long will you keep trying? Just as there's a constituency out here which believes Pakistanis will see reason one day and desist from supporting and executing terrorism in India, there's a constituency out there too, within the deep state, which sees India as unable to sustain this battle of attrition and sooner rather than later succumb to Pakistan's death by a 1000 cuts. Both of these are wishful thinking really & both feed off each other.
Just used to create unease across border, don't have local appeal.
You'd be surprised at the level of discontent, a disastrous economy and political disenfranchisement fosters. The civil war in Afghanistan is less about strategic depth than deep state's real fears about controlling the Pashtuns on both sides of the Durand line to do their bidding, failing which theyd have a full blown Pashtun insurgency on their hands. Afghanistan has never recognized the Durand line, not even under the Taliban. Hence, the victory of the Taliban over Afghanistan may solve one set of problems but create another.
There's still an active lobby within the US and their allies which sees the final solution to the Afghan problem as division of Afghanistan into two with the southern half being the homeland of the Pashtuns. Guess who's vehemently opposed to this plan.
The situation in FATA is there for all to see. PTM is peaceful for the time being. As it gains popularity, the PA will act the only way it does - repression.
Let's consider PoK & especially the Northern Areas. They don't have any say in the administration of the area they call home. While no one in Delhi is under any illusion that the populace there is willing to join the Union of India, the overwhelming impression is that they want maximum autonomy failing which cries for independence now in a minority will gather momentum. A lot of it, I suspect also has to do with the way the CPEC is being implemented with all the sacrifices being extracted from the local populace there for the benefit of the rest of the nation, particularly Punjab with zero benefits for PoK & NA.
I haven't even brought up Balochistan where a LIC has been raging in fits and starts since the incorporation of Balochistan into Pakistan.
Hence, you see, the fault lines in Pakistan today are more prominent than that as compared to India.
Are you aware that their recent ploy is to revive the Khalistani movement? All those murders of essentially Sangh and other party members, the recent call for a referendum in Western nations, etc are part of the same game plan of deep state.
I wouldn't be as sanguine as you are about our security managers exploiting these fault lines purely for effect in the mid term to long term, ( while that may be the case today) particularly if Pakistan continues aiding and abetting terrorism in Kashmir and across India.
.
