Pakistan Economy : Updates and Discussions

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IMF projects inflation rate to hit 14% by June | The Express Tribune

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has projected that the average inflation rate in Pakistan might hit 14% by June next year – a level that if reached could result in interest rates peaking to 15% and economy drastically slowing down, government sources say.

Such a high level inflation would also carry implications for Prime Minister Imran Khan’s most ambitious flagship programme of constructing five-million low-cost housing units. The banks lend money over and above the policy rate, which will reduce the government’s options to give subsidy on housing loans.

The sources said due to stabilisation measures, the IMF is also projecting economic growth rate of below 3% for fiscal year 2018-19. These assessments were shared with Pakistan during September 27 to October 4 staff level visit.

Although the IMF has not mentioned the inflation projections in its handout, it did internally share the assessment of average 14% inflation in fiscal year 2018-19 with the Finance Ministry, said sources who negotiated with the IMF.

The issue of inflation and the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) also came up for discussions during the closing meeting between Finance Minister Asad Umar and IMF team. The meeting was held in Q-Block on last Thursday. In its handout issued on the same day, the IMF underlined that “economic growth will likely slow significantly, and inflation will rise”.

IMF projects inflation rate to hit 14% by June

The average inflation in the first quarter of this fiscal year was 5.86%, according to the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics (PBS). The Sensitive Price Index-based inflation has already jumped to 6.5% this week over the same time of the last year, according to the PBS. The State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) has also raised its average inflation projection to 8% but it is still far lower than the IMF’s assessment.

The sources said the IMF’s assessment of average 14% inflation was based on at least four assumptions. These were increase in prices of gas (already notified up to 143%), increase in power tariffs, devaluation of rupee against the US dollar that will affect almost every consumable item and increase in prices of petroleum products due to devaluation and global crude oil prices.

“According to our model, the average inflation in the fiscal year 2018-19 will be between 13% and 15%,” said Dr Hafiz Pasha, former finance minister, while affirming the IMF’s assumptions for higher inflation.

Once the inflation hits the roof, it would be impossible for the SBP to keep the real interest rates negative. In such a scenario, the IMF would push Pakistan to hike the key interest rates to a level, which should be slightly higher than the inflation levels.

The IMF has already announced to send its team to Pakistan in the coming weeks after Finance Minister Asad Umar formally requested the IMF managing director for a bailout package.

The SBP has recently increased the interest rates to 8.5% – 2.75% increase since January this year. The sources said the IMF demanded 12.5% interest rate in the short term.

The IMF has long been advocating tight monetary and fiscal policies to cut the aggregate demand aimed at restoring macroeconomic stability in Pakistan. The country booked $18 billion current account deficit in the last fiscal year but its official foreign currency reserves are not sufficient to finance the deficit.

The SBP’s official foreign currency reserves decreased to $8.3 billion – hardly sufficient to give cover to 1.5 months imports. The month of November will be critical, as the authorities are expecting that the current account deficit will start narrowing down, imports will be drastically curtailed due to previous rounds of devaluation and the exports will pick up.

In case this does not happen, the SBP might be asked to take the interest rates to double digits and let the rupee further devalue. The sources said the due to the stabilisation measures the IMF has also projected economic growth rate of below 3% as against 5.8% in the last fiscal year.

A senior official of the Finance Ministry, who was also involved in negotiations with the IMF, said Pakistan did not agree to the IMF’s assessment of 14% inflation and below 3% economic growth rate.

But Dr Pasha said in addition to stabilisation measures, the output of major crops would be a determining factor in estimating economic growth rate. He said if the major crops output dipped, the economic growth rate will be in the range of 3.2% to 3.5%. “If the agriculture sector performs well, the economic growth rate could be around 4.2%,” said Dr Pasha.

The IMF’s latest World Economic Outlook report said the macroeconomic stability gains in Pakistan have been eroding, putting the outlook at risk. The economic growth rate is expected to moderate to 4% in 2019, and slow to about 3% by 2023.

This suggests that Pakistan’s economic conditions will remain precarious for years to come, contrary to the PM’s promise with the nation that he would overpower the situation in six months.

 

[_Anonymous_]

IMF projects inflation rate to hit 14% by June | The Express Tribune

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has projected that the average inflation rate in Pakistan might hit 14% by June next year – a level that if reached could result in interest rates peaking to 15% and economy drastically slowing down, government sources say.

Such a high level inflation would also carry implications for Prime Minister Imran Khan’s most ambitious flagship programme of constructing five-million low-cost housing units. The banks lend money over and above the policy rate, which will reduce the government’s options to give subsidy on housing loans.

The sources said due to stabilisation measures, the IMF is also projecting economic growth rate of below 3% for fiscal year 2018-19. These assessments were shared with Pakistan during September 27 to October 4 staff level visit.

Although the IMF has not mentioned the inflation projections in its handout, it did internally share the assessment of average 14% inflation in fiscal year 2018-19 with the Finance Ministry, said sources who negotiated with the IMF.

The issue of inflation and the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) also came up for discussions during the closing meeting between Finance Minister Asad Umar and IMF team. The meeting was held in Q-Block on last Thursday. In its handout issued on the same day, the IMF underlined that “economic growth will likely slow significantly, and inflation will rise”.

IMF projects inflation rate to hit 14% by June

The average inflation in the first quarter of this fiscal year was 5.86%, according to the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics (PBS). The Sensitive Price Index-based inflation has already jumped to 6.5% this week over the same time of the last year, according to the PBS. The State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) has also raised its average inflation projection to 8% but it is still far lower than the IMF’s assessment.

The sources said the IMF’s assessment of average 14% inflation was based on at least four assumptions. These were increase in prices of gas (already notified up to 143%), increase in power tariffs, devaluation of rupee against the US dollar that will affect almost every consumable item and increase in prices of petroleum products due to devaluation and global crude oil prices.

“According to our model, the average inflation in the fiscal year 2018-19 will be between 13% and 15%,” said Dr Hafiz Pasha, former finance minister, while affirming the IMF’s assumptions for higher inflation.

Once the inflation hits the roof, it would be impossible for the SBP to keep the real interest rates negative. In such a scenario, the IMF would push Pakistan to hike the key interest rates to a level, which should be slightly higher than the inflation levels.

The IMF has already announced to send its team to Pakistan in the coming weeks after Finance Minister Asad Umar formally requested the IMF managing director for a bailout package.

The SBP has recently increased the interest rates to 8.5% – 2.75% increase since January this year. The sources said the IMF demanded 12.5% interest rate in the short term.

The IMF has long been advocating tight monetary and fiscal policies to cut the aggregate demand aimed at restoring macroeconomic stability in Pakistan. The country booked $18 billion current account deficit in the last fiscal year but its official foreign currency reserves are not sufficient to finance the deficit.

The SBP’s official foreign currency reserves decreased to $8.3 billion – hardly sufficient to give cover to 1.5 months imports. The month of November will be critical, as the authorities are expecting that the current account deficit will start narrowing down, imports will be drastically curtailed due to previous rounds of devaluation and the exports will pick up.

In case this does not happen, the SBP might be asked to take the interest rates to double digits and let the rupee further devalue. The sources said the due to the stabilisation measures the IMF has also projected economic growth rate of below 3% as against 5.8% in the last fiscal year.

A senior official of the Finance Ministry, who was also involved in negotiations with the IMF, said Pakistan did not agree to the IMF’s assessment of 14% inflation and below 3% economic growth rate.

But Dr Pasha said in addition to stabilisation measures, the output of major crops would be a determining factor in estimating economic growth rate. He said if the major crops output dipped, the economic growth rate will be in the range of 3.2% to 3.5%. “If the agriculture sector performs well, the economic growth rate could be around 4.2%,” said Dr Pasha.

The IMF’s latest World Economic Outlook report said the macroeconomic stability gains in Pakistan have been eroding, putting the outlook at risk. The economic growth rate is expected to moderate to 4% in 2019, and slow to about 3% by 2023.

This suggests that Pakistan’s economic conditions will remain precarious for years to come, contrary to the PM’s promise with the nation that he would overpower the situation in six months.

Seems like the countdown has begun. Let's see how far the US will push home it's advantage. Let's also see how does higher than Mt. Everest, sweeter than corn sugar, deeper than Mariaana Trench, lighter than nitrogen, harder than diamond - "iron brother "China reacts to Pakistan's predicament.

My guess is of Trump manages to get NK to denuclearise in the next 2 years by offering whatever sops it offers, Pakistan & Iran will come under tremendous pressure with Pakistan topping the list . Of course, the same could be said about China, which will pull out all the stoppers to ensure Pakistan remains a viable state still beholden to China.

 

[BlackOpsIndia]

Pakistan & Iran will come under tremendous pressure with Pakistan topping the list . Of course, the same could be said about China, which will pull out all the stoppers to ensure Pakistan remains a viable state still beholden to China.

Trump admin is not looking to punish Pakistan, they just want to subjugate them, like before.
What better way to feel superior than to get a whole country, that too a nuclear power on rent!

 

[zinswinsin]

Pakistan, Iran, NK, Venezuela, Russia to a degree.

All propped up by China.

 

[_Anonymous_]

Trump admin is not looking to punish Pakistan, they just want to enslave them, like before. Value of normal Pakistan as slave far exceeds value of broken Pakistan not ready to do the dirty work.

What better way to feel superior than to get a whole country, that too a nuclear power on rent!

I don't agree with your reading of the situation. There's no convergence & will be none between the US & Pakistan's strategy on Afghanistan - the only and biggest sticking point in their relationship made more frightening by their possession of NW and not as India'd like to believe that that US has finally decided to see Pakistan thru our lens, though the action ( belated & too little from our PoV) the US is now taking serves our purpose well .

Its taken the US nearly 2 decades, apart from thousands of casualties suffered & billions of dollars down the drain to internalise this simple & obvious fact & to act upon it.

PA has been hoping that the US will throw in the towel and depart. Sooner rather than later.And they aren't wrong, you know. That's been the US track record so far. But as of now, that doesn't seem to be happening.

That would be the only way they'd resume their Master Slave relationship as it was in the golden past.

 

[BlackOpsIndia]

I don't agree with your reading of the situation. There's no convergence & will be none between the US & Pakistan's strategy on Afghanistan - the only and biggest sticking point in their relationship made more frightening by their possession of NW and not as India'd like to believe that that US has finally decided to see Pakistan thru our lens, though the action ( belated & too little from our PoV) the US is now taking serves our purpose well .

Its taken the US nearly 2 decades, apart from thousands of casualties suffered & billions of dollars down the drain to internalise this simple & obvious fact & to act upon it.

PA has been hoping that the US will throw in the towel and depart. Sooner rather than later.And they aren't wrong, you know. That's been the US track record so far. But as of now, that doesn't seem to be happening.

That would be the only way they'd resume their Master Slave relationship as it was in the golden past.

US stopped caring about Afghanistan long ago, Trump made a renewed push but his advisors changed his mind and he is no longer interested in Afghanistan.

US couldnt care less how we see Pakistan, they don't bother if Pak send terrorists to India, they didn't bother when Pak killed US and Israeli citizens in India you can easily guess the value of life of Indians to them. Don't get carried away by grand talks of care and concerns.

They are obsessed with Iran much much much more than you can think, they are ready to put whole world on fire for Iran and if you are watching changes in Trump admin you will know this. Pakistan is the only country they can bend to their will and can help in hurting Iran and not long from now you will see everything, everything will work out between them. US aid is already on table and once Pak starts to do their bidding they will be handsomely compensated.

Only reason Pak is not doing is cuz US is not a trusted Partner and for them they are hesitant to sacrifice China, a much more reliable partner but you will see, they will carry water for US and it will be very soon. India is not even in picture, in talks, in strategy in Washington, Republicans are too busy burning the world that they care for land of Gandhi.

 

[Arvind]

I don't agree with your reading of the situation. There's no convergence & will be none between the US & Pakistan's strategy on Afghanistan -

What if the strategy is "whoever pays more" which has been the case all the time. China has never been a good pay master, and make you work harder. Pak will find it tough to work that hard.

 

[_Anonymous_]

US stopped caring about Afghanistan long ago, Trump made a renewed push but his advisors changed his mind and he is no longer interested in Afghanistan.

US couldnt care less how we see Pakistan, they don't bother if Pak send terrorists to India, they didn't bother when Pak killed US and Israeli citizens in India you can easily guess the value of life of Indians to them. Don't get carried away by grand talks of care and concerns.

They are obsessed with Iran much much much more than you can think, they are ready to put whole world on fire for Iran and if you are watching changes in Trump admin you will know this. Pakistan is the only country they can bend to their will and can help in hurting Iran and not long from now you will see everything, everything will work out between them. US aid is already on table and once Pak starts to do their bidding they will be handsomely compensated.

Only reason Pak is not doing is cuz US is not a trusted Partner and for them they are hesitant to sacrifice China, a much more reliable partner but you will see, they will carry water for US and it will be very soon. India is not even in picture, in talks, in strategy in Washington, Republicans are too busy burning the world that they care for land of Gandhi.

Iran is sometime away from developing N weapons. While this administration has and will focus on Iran, they're hamstrung by the loss of support from their European allies. In fact they're pretty much isolated in terms of Iran.

The key to what will happen to either Iran or Pakistan lies in how the NK issue will be resolved. If NK goes in for voluntary denuclearisation, China will be massively discomfited ( but that's another story) . However, either Iran ( most likely) or Pakistan or both will be under the spotlight. If the emphasis is on both, since Iran is some time away from acquiring N weapons, Pakistan will be under immense pressure. Having said that, it's not improbable to expect full co operation from Pakistan to the US on Afghanistan and also Iran to secure their N weapons .

Coming back to the first part of your post, the US will always be present in Afghanistan, in some form or the other. They aren't as myopic as our security managers to let history repeat itself and see another takeover of an antagonistic Pak backed Taliban in Afghanistan and consequently another 9/11 what with the presence of N weapons next door in Pakistan. And as long as the US is present in Afghanistan, they will have a mutually antagonistic relationship with Pakistan because of the divergence in their assessment of the future of Afghanistan.

But let's see. We still have a couple of years before things crystalise in the world's hot spots including our neighborhood and the picture becomes clearer. A lot of it also has to do with whether we see Trump in his second term as US President. For if that happens, as the ancient Chinese curse goes - May you live in interesting times - will come to fruition. We seem fortunate on that count. Of that I'm sure.

 

[_Anonymous_]

What if the strategy is "whoever pays more" which has been the case all the time. China has never been a good pay master, and make you work harder. Pak will find it tough to work that hard.

That's exactly what the US had been doing beginning 2001 till 2014 when they finally internalised the truth that Pakistan was hunting with the hound & running with the hare.

 

[Arvind]

That's exactly what the US had been doing beginning 2001 till 2014 when they finally internalised the truth that Pakistan was hunting with the hound & running with the hare.

Agreed but my contention is soon Pakistan will realize that US money was far easy money.

 

[_Anonymous_]

Agreed but my contention is soon Pakistan will realize that US money was far easy money.

They already have had that epiphany. Except that the US isn't playing ball.

 

[BlackOpsIndia]

The key to what will happen to either Iran or Pakistan lies in how the NK issue will be resolved

I don't know how you linked Iran and Pakistan with North Korea issue, whatever way the issue is resolved pressure and acts against Iran won't stop.

since Iran is some time away from acquiring N weapons, Pakistan will be under immense pressure. Having said that, it's not improbable to expect full co operation from Pakistan to the US on Afghanistan and also Iran to secure their N weapons

Pakistan got nuclear weapons when CIA was running amok in Pak, they didn't care that time. They didn't care even when Pak was caught smuggling nukes to Libya, North Korea and even Iran and you think somehow Pak nuclear weapons are now under scan!!! They even stopped mentioning them in useless press conference of state department, don't even show even fake concern for them and you somehow think this is all about Nukes of Pak?

India and Pakistan are both established nuclear powers both technically and geopolitically, every country accept that and nobody even bothers now to denuclearize any of the above country, not even time pass NGO's protest nowadays. Why do you think they somehow so silently became priority, so silently that they are not even making a statement about it?

Also with Iran problem is less of being a nuclear country but more of a ego and stupid ideology of Iran that commits them to destroy Israel and Amerika. If they stop threatening these two countries US won't bother this much that they have nuclear weapons or not.

They aren't as myopic as our security managers to let history repeat itself and see another takeover of an antagonistic Pak backed Taliban in Afghanistan and consequently another 9/11 what with the presence of N weapons next door in Pakistan

US is right now desperately trying to make Taliban a political partner and share power in Afghanistan and they are putting lot of capital to achieve exactly that. Don't know you can call it myopic or not but such a desperation to somehow put afghanistan war in "win" coloum can't be seen far sighted for sure.

US is not going out of Afghanistan completely and they will maintain a healthy presence there for sure due to location close to Russia and China without paying a dime but to think they don't want Taliban in Afghanistan is wrong. They are ready to share power with Taliban and both Pak and Taliban have sensed this, they are hardening their position to get little bit more.

 

[_Anonymous_]

I don't know how you linked Iran and Pakistan with North Korea issue, whatever way the issue is resolved pressure and acts against Iran won't stop.

Why have I mentioned NK in the context of Pakistan or Iran? Simple. It's coz just a few months ago Kim was shouting himself hoarse , calling attention to himself, threatening to unleash destruction on Japan, SK & the US thus prompting immediate world attention to a potential flash point ? All sides here are aware that Kim is playing the US and it's allies against China coz he's fighting for survival - of himself, his regime and his country apart from attempting to shrug off NK's total dependance on China.

Apart from this, nobody saw NK as an immediate threat. Nor is the ideology he's espousing a threat to the US as it used to be in the time of his grand father or his father 2-3 decades ago. At best he's an irritant, at worst a dangerous not deadly foe for his proliferation of N weapons and delivery systems to fellow rogue states .

Having said that, he's firmly in control of his country's N arsenal. Which can't be said of Pakistan, about whom the threat of rogue elements gaining control of N weapons is a persistent nightmare in Western capitals, principally in Washington. As far as Iran goes, the entire regime is considered as rogue / terrorist - a distinction Pakistan doesn't not enjoy as of now .


With a denuclearised NK, that's one less hotspot in the world, providing an immediate impetus to effect such a state of affairs in both Pakistan & Iran given their dire and fragile economic situation. Geopolitics then is also about timing.

Pakistan got nuclear weapons when CIA was running amok in Pak, they didn't care that time.

The US didn't care as they had bigger fish to fry. Islamic terrorism was what emnated from Iran. 9/ 11 was in the future. Osama was a pal & the Mujahideen who were to turn into the Taliban later were freedom fighters.

They didn't care even when Pak was caught smuggling nukes to Libya, North Korea and even Iran and you think somehow Pak nuclear weapons are now under scan!!!

Of course they cared. Libya's lack of N weapons but attempts to acquire them rang alarm bells in Western capitals & sealed Gaddafi's fate particularly given his past patronage of terrorist outfits who'd carried out deadly attacks in the west , brought the spotlight on the N black market set up by PA & fronted by AQ Khan.

It also brought home the fallacy of neglecting the NWP of Pakistan and the attendant risks of having such weapons in the hold of a society inherently inimical to the West. The idea that another Islamic nation just cannot have N weapons gathered momentum. Libya fell first ( there were other reasons as well) and it became an article of faith that Iran won't go down the path of Pakistan, come what may.

That's also why the practise of every incoming administration seeking assurances & re iterations from China that if push came to shove and Pakistan had to be de nuclearised, China wouldn't interfere, became a recurring feature of strategic talks between the incoming US & Chinese administrations.

They even stopped mentioning them in useless press conference of state department, don't even show even fake concern for them and you somehow think this is all about Nukes of Pak?

Are you implying that just coz there's no routine mention by the said organizations, there's zero concern about Pakistan's NWP and it's proliferation activities? I think not. It could well be to lull Pindi into believing they're under the radar. Let me invite views from @Hellfire & @vstol Jockey about Pakistan's N Arsenal- it's size and delivery systems, the US's view on it, the steps they've taken to defuse it - including de nuclearisation , China's anticipated response & India's role in assisting the US to accomplish mutual goals

India and Pakistan are both established nuclear powers both technically and geopolitically, every country accept that and nobody even bothers now to denuclearize any of the above country, not even time pass NGO's protest nowadays. Why do you think they somehow so silently became priority, so silently that they are not even making a statement about it?

I've addressed this post Immediately above. To elaborate, India is accepted as a defacto N power. The NSG, Wassenar Agreement, Australia group is testament to this fact. Where is Pakistan in all this is anyone's guess?

Also with Iran problem is less of being a nuclear country but more of a ego and stupid ideology of Iran that commits them to destroy Israel and Amerika. If they stop threatening these two countries US won't bother this much that they have nuclear weapons or not.

Agreed. But the boat has sailed a long time back. Iran can't back off now. At least not with the current regime governing them.

US is right now desperately trying to make Taliban a political partner and share power in Afghanistan and they are putting lot of capital to achieve exactly that. Don't know you can call it myopic or not but such a desperation to somehow put afghanistan war in "win" coloum can't be seen far sighted for sure.

Two points - US wants Taliban to be part of the peace process but not at the cost of the current leader ship ( including the opposition) in Afghanistan and accepting US presence there indefinitely. Both points, which the Taliban isn't agreeing to. Basically, something which doesn't suit Pakistan and by extension China too.

US is not going out of Afghanistan completely and they will maintain a healthy presence there for sure due to location close to Russia and China without paying a dime but to think they don't want Taliban in Afghanistan is wrong. They are ready to share power with Taliban and both Pak and Taliban have sensed this, they are hardening their position to get little bit more.

That may well have been their gambit till a couple of years ago, not anymore. Why? It's the economy of Pakistan and by extension the existence of Taliban which is under threat. Not immediately but in the near future. Although this may sound funny now given the omnipresence of the Taliban across Afghanistan as of the present.All the US has to do is gradually tighten the screws on the Pakistani economy & hang in there in Afghanistan. They've the luxury of time, not Pakistan. The end game, however, isn't on the horizon for the next couple of years. Plus it depends on other factors like the responses of China, Russia, Iran & India.

 

[BlackOpsIndia]

Having said that, he's firmly in control of his country's N arsenal. Which can't be said of Pakistan, about whom the threat of rogue elements gaining control of N weapons is a persistent nightmare in Western capitals, principally in Washington.

Pakistani nuclear arsenal is secured and there is no danger of it getting it into hands of so called rogue elements, this is not a diwali bomb that a terrorist can get their hands on and can use it. Moreover u need a missile to deliver the warhead.

Unless we are here wasting time for propaganda let's leave it to PR professionals.

brought the spotlight on the N black market set up by PA & fronted by AQ Khan.

What a concern, multiple countries getting nuclear materials got invaded, sanctioned and to the single most proliferator not even a slap on wrist! Quite a concern I must say.

Are you implying that just coz there's no routine mention by the said organizations, there's zero concern about Pakistan's NWP and it's proliferation activities? I think not. It could well be to lull Pindi into believing they're under the radar. Let me invite views from @Hellfire & @vstol Jockey about Pakistan's N Arsenal- it's size and delivery systems, the US's view on it, the steps they've taken to defuse it - including de nuclearisation , China's anticipated response & India's role in assisting the US to accomplish mutual goals

Yeah sure, they can reveal some secret plans that people on defence forum knows but Pakistani intelligence doesn't and can neither can counter it on its own soil.

One thing they will definitely tell u is that a plan is a plan, just that, when bullets starts flying nobody knows what's the end. Even the best plan can't guarantee capturing all Pakistani nuclear weapons and nobody will take the risk without being 100% sure of complete success.

Two points - US wants Taliban to be part of the peace process but not at the cost of the current leader ship ( including the opposition) in Afghanistan

I don't know who told you that but even a kid can tell you that's not gonna happen. Taliban already rules most of Afghanistan, to think they will just surender without sharing power if not the only party in power is not logical. Forget no role, forget opposition, the way, the desperation US is showing they will be lucky if they can have Taliban sharing power.

That may well have been their gambit till a couple of years ago, not anymore. Why? It's the economy of Pakistan and by extension the existence of Taliban which is under threat. Not immediately but in the near future. Although this may sound funny now given the omnipresence of the Taliban across Afghanistan as of the present.All the US has to do is gradually tighten the screws on the Pakistani economy & hang in there in Afghanistan. They've the luxury of time, not Pakistan. The end game, however, isn't on the horizon for the next couple of years.

Pakistan has actually made the Afghanistan an opportunity from nothing. By stepping up attacks they have made US desperate to make a deal, they will get something out of it, something good for them which would never have been the case if violence in Afghanistan is never increased, so there created an opportunity for themselves.

Plus it depends on other factors like the responses of China, Russia, Iran & India

Hardly, even Afghanistan govt has become a marginal player and you are talking about countries having no practical presence. They can at best create some irritants nothing much.

 

[safriz]

In 1947 Nehru said Pakistan won't last an year..
This is 2018.

 

[Shajida Khan]

In 1947 Nehru said Pakistan won't last an year..
This is 2018.

Source? When or where did nehru say that in '47?

BTW, Pakistan did not indeed last too long. It disintegrated losing half of its population in '71. Right now what you call Pakistan is just West Pakistan.

 

[Milspec]

In 1947 Nehru said Pakistan won't last an year..
This is 2018.

It didn't; within months of Jinnah death, Pakistan became a military theocracy and that's how it exists till date, not as the Pakistan mandated by M.A. Jinnah, right? So even if thats what Nehru Said, wouldn't be that far off.

 

[Paro]

In 1947 Nehru said Pakistan won't last an year..
This is 2018.

Nehru never said pakistan wont last a year nor did Atal bihari vajpayee ever say pakistan will never become a nuclear power. That's your ISPR propaganda machine in play to control your masses.
you cant prove nehru's statment anyway atleast try providing a single source for vajpayee's staatments lol.

 

[Butter Chicken]

Pak tv expert crying on current and future scenario of Pakistan

 

[_Anonymous_]

Pakistani nuclear arsenal is secured and there is no danger of it getting it into hands of so called rogue elements, this is not a diwali bomb that a terrorist can get their hands on and can use it. Moreover u need a missile to deliver the warhead.

Unless we are here wasting time for propaganda let's leave it to PR professionals.

The general assessment is that there's a section of the deep state in Pakistan which is sufficiently radicalized enough to attempt such a step in collaboration with "non state actors ". There's plenty of evidence to suggest that such events have occurred in the past not specifically with respect to N weapons. Eg - the attempted seizure of the warship PNS Zulfiqar.

What a concern, multiple countries getting nuclear materials got invaded, sanctioned and to the single most proliferator not even a slap on wrist! Quite a concern I must say.

True. Unfortunately, as much as you & I hate it ,that's how geopolitics is. N weapons are ultimate guarantors against active subversion or even invasion of a sovereign state. Why do you think NK, Iran, Libya, etc were / are attempting to acquire a decent N deterrent capability. They've taken a leaf out of Pakistan's playbook which emulated India who emulated China who emulated the former USSR / US / UK / France.

Yeah sure, they can reveal some secret plans that people on defence forum knows but Pakistani intelligence doesn't and can neither can counter it on its own soil.

That Pakistan's intelligence community or even their armed forces are aware of such moves isn't an issue. We are functioning in an era of unprecedented global communication where such views can't be hidden. What should be debated instead is their ability to preserve their NWP in view of such an attempt. Unfortunately, I'm not privy to what such an attempt entails except for random news articles appearing Erratically online. The two members whom I've tagged have definitely more info than us lay persons about what India can attempt to neutraise Pakistan's NWP, alone or in tandem action with like minded nations. Then again, one can't quite assess the quality of their info . Besides, there's also the question of how much info would they be filtering and the fact that their knowledge would be limited due to various reasons.

One thing they will definitely tell u is that a plan is a plan, just that, when bullets starts flying nobody knows what's the end. Even the best plan can't guarantee capturing all Pakistani nuclear weapons and nobody will take the risk without being 100% sure of complete success.

Agreed. But when push comes to shove, what are your options? When you have to take a call about whether you'd be fine facing the fallout of a few N weapons of varying yields ranging from low to medium over your cities to whether you'd be comfortable sitting back contemplating your actions / resctions while the Pakistanis unleash their entire N arsenal on your inhabited areas - is entirely your call.

I don't know who told you that but even a kid can tell you that's not gonna happen. Taliban already rules most of Afghanistan, to think they will just surender without sharing power if not the only party in power is not logical. Forget no role, forget opposition, the way, the desperation US is showing they will be lucky if they can have Taliban sharing power.

Please cite your references when you make sweeping statements like the Taliban is ruling over most of Afghanistan. How many cities are they controlling and which ones are they? Right now the Afghan state is in retreat but does construe the Taliban is winning? See what I mean, it's a stalemate with the pendulum swinging .

The US had been contemplating total withdrawal since G. W. Bush's 2 nd term. In spite of the Nobel Prize awardee and certified peacenik Obama, they're still around. Why haven't they quit? Don't you think there's a huge tussle within the strategic community in the US, the various arms of the US govt over whether to quit or stay, about the degree of the depth of involvement in Afghanistan, etc? If not, wouldn't they have quit as they did from Iraq?

Pakistan has actually made the Afghanistan an opportunity from nothing. By stepping up attacks they have made US desperate to make a deal, they will get something out of it, something good for them which would never have been the case if violence in Afghanistan is never increased, so there created an opportunity for themselves.

True. If the US is exasperated and totally frustrated by Pakistan's perfidy, the US has just discovered Pakistan's underbelly - its extremely fragile economy. Wait for this situation to develop further before you make grand pronouncements. There has to be a quid pro quo. In a couple months or years, the nature of this deal will be clear.

Hardly, even Afghanistan govt has become a marginal player and you are talking about countries having no practical presence. They can at best create some irritants nothing much.

The situation has yet to crystallise. As of now the Taliban and their backers in Pakistan are calling the shots. Whether this will result in their taking over Afghanistan and Sustaining such a rule depends on many variables in which India plays a role, not so much directly as far as Afghanistan per see is concerned for obvious reasons since we don't share a land border with Afghanistan but we definitely are players and stake holders in the Af Pak region.