Tejas Mk2 (Medium Weight Fighter) - News and discussions

I wonder why this concurrent engineering philosophy wasn't adopted when Mk-1a was being fabricated especially since the Mk-1a is purely the Mk-1 modified. Instead we witnessed torturous negotiations lasting upto 2 yrs post which the order was placed & work proceeded in full ernest. After all the first prototype of the Mk-1a flew as late as last year if I'm not mistaken. And this is a completely different FA we're talking about here.

I suspect given their past record what will happen is precisely what I've laid down. The IAF itself suspects as much but they themselves aren't doing anything to hasten matters by suggesting concurrency or any other mitigation.
 
Given the consistent delays, setbacks in development, financing issues, bureaucracy, policy paralysis and overall lethargic demeanor of the IAF/ MOD/ARDE/HAL when it comes to modernization and induction of nearly every domestic project over the past 20 years... the optimistic attitudes taken up by a lot of members here is baffling. I don't forsee 2 squads of mk2 before 2040. That's assuming there is no conflict with China/Pakistan that draws away more resources and forces emergency imports that will further push this timeframe out.
 
Given the consistent delays, setbacks in development, financing issues, bureaucracy, policy paralysis and overall lethargic demeanor of the IAF/ MOD/ARDE/HAL when it comes to modernization and induction of nearly every domestic project over the past 20 years... the optimistic attitudes taken up by a lot of members here is baffling. I don't forsee 2 squads of mk2 before 2040. That's assuming there is no conflict with China/Pakistan that draws away more resources and forces emergency imports that will further push this timeframe out.
In resident optimist's defence let me say the only way to keep one's sanity intact in the face of often baffling self contradictory & self defeating decisions of the establishment is to either create & inhabit a make believe world or turn into a cynic.

But he does have a point as far as concurrent engineering goes except that I don't see it happening. Unlike the IN the most involved & proactive of all the services which itself takes decisions which look puzzling at times , the IAF till date can't be termed as a service fully committed to indigenization . As a recent discussion on Twitter revealed the delegation doing the rounds of negotiations with SAFRAN & RR didn't have a single member of the IAF in it .

Hence , unfortunately , as things stand , we're poised to see the first production variant roll out ~2034 T/L which in my limited opinion defeats the very purpose of having an Mk-2 .

IN any case , I foresee our confrontation with China ( &/ or Paxtan ) to happen by the end of this decade which sort of completely rules out the Mk-2 , AMCA - Mk-1 & TEDBF . Besides I never saw them or accounted for them playing any role in my ORBAT ever . Resident storyteller did around same time last yr though he's performed a somersault this yr.
 
In resident optimist's defence let me say the only way to keep one's sanity intact in the face of often baffling self contradictory & self defeating decisions of the establishment is to either create & inhabit a make believe world or turn into a cynic.

But he does have a point as far as concurrent engineering goes except that I don't see it happening. Unlike the IN the most involved & proactive of all the services which itself takes decisions which look puzzling at times , the IAF till date can't be termed as a service fully committed to indigenization . As a recent discussion on Twitter revealed the delegation doing the rounds of negotiations with SAFRAN & RR didn't have a single member of the IAF in it .

Hence , unfortunately , as things stand , we're poised to see the first production variant roll out ~2034 T/L which in my limited opinion defeats the very purpose of having an Mk-2 .

IN any case , I foresee our confrontation with China ( &/ or Paxtan ) to happen by the end of this decade which sort of completely rules out the Mk-2 , AMCA - Mk-1 & TEDBF . Besides I never saw them or accounted for them playing any role in my ORBAT ever . Resident storyteller did around same time last yr though he's performed a somersault this yr.
It's better to be a cynic and an involved citizen than believe in delusions. Imagination has not stopped the Chinese from salami slicing the border regions and will not stop a more major incursion. The negligence shown in developing and maintaining capabilities is criminal and the Indian public needs to hold these institutions accountable. I actually can't believe how bad they've let things get.

You may be confident that a concurrent development/induction philosophy will revolutionize things, but I'm not convinced. It is the same people and same organizations who are being tasked with this new approach after all. These institutions need to be dismantled and rebuilt from the ground up.

Regardless, the mk2 is single engine multipurpose 4th gen fighter. It was meant to be a workhorse like the f-16/j-10c. What the IAF originally envisioned replacing the mig-21...Even if it is inducted on a fantasy timeline, can we expect it to fare well against the J-20s and J-16s it will likely go up against? Even the US is not confident in the survivability of platforms like the F-15/16/18 against near peers and is relegating them to domestic air patrol, coin operations and as long range missile trucks. In my eyes the mk2 is okay for developing India's domestic industry and is only considered a "force multiplier" because their current air combat strength is pathetic.
 
Regardless, the mk2 is single engine multipurpose 4th gen fighter. It was meant to be a workhorse like the f-16/j-10c. What the IAF originally envisioned replacing the mig-21...
That was what the original Mk-1 was envisaged to be in it's latest Avatar around 2006-07 . When it became clear the Mk-1 would be merely a replacement for the MiG-21 & not the fancy wonderplane the IAF wanted it to be , the latter lost interest & the ADA / DRDO got themselves a project sanctioned in 2009 with the IAF's reluctant participation called Mk-2 .

This Mk-2 is what was hoped will become the work horse or main stay of the IAF by replacing all the Jaguars , the Mirages & the MiG-29s provided it came on time which as decided in a compromise meeting between all the stake holders chaired by then Defence Minister Manohar Parrikar in 2016 would be ~ 2022. Hence by and large the ADA has stuck to the timeframe .

The culprit for the delay would be the GoI which didn't release funds for 2 yrs who would cite a whole host of factors for not doing so prime amongst them being the state of the economy & the havoc caused by the Wuhan virus - all legitimate reasons.

So whom are you going to blame now for the delay in the light of the above information ?


Even if it is inducted on a fantasy timeline, can we expect it to fare well against the J-20s and J-16s it will likely go up against?

As of now , I doubt we've anything in our inventory in the IAF which can go head up against the J-20s or even the other FAs the PLAAF wil throw at us except the Rafales of which we have only 36 nos .

Ideally we ought to have exercised our options to import another 36-54 nos before moving on to the MRFA tender. Why hasn't it happened is another eternal mystery that only the IAF , MoD & GoI can answer ? It's either that or you go to resident storyteller for hia version.


The hope is the first squadron of the Mk-2s when it arrives ~2034-35 , would be on par with the F-4.0 series of the Rafales today . In any case it'd be too late in the day as by that time I expect either China would have successfully gobbled up Taiwan & sorted out everyone else including the India & the US or China itself would've split up into 4-5 nations .


Even the US is not confident in the survivability of platforms like the F-15/16/18 against near peers and is relegating them to domestic air patrol, coin operations and as long range missile trucks.

It's no longer a frontline platform but can serve a useful 2 nd strike role once SEAD / DEAD operations have yielded the desired results .

In my eyes the mk2 is okay for developing India's domestic industry and is only considered a "force multiplier" because their current air combat strength is pathetic.

It's still good enough for our part of the world right upto the 2040's especially w.r.t Pakistan but with diminishing strategic importance as far as China goes which is to say it's good enough to take care of their second rung FA's like J-10 , J-11 , J-16 ,etc in the mid 2030's but not their frontline J-20 , J-31 & whatever 5th / 5.5 / 6th Gen FA they throw at us then .

IMO by that time the China problem would've been solved one way or another.
 
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This Mk-2 is what was hoped will become the work horse or main stay of the IAF by replacing all the Jaguars , the Mirages & the MiG-29s provided it came on time which as decided in a compromise meeting between all the stake holders chaired by then Defence Minister Manohar Parrikar in 2016 would be ~ 2022. Hence by and large the ADA has stuck to the timeframe .
So whom are you going to blame now for the delay in the light of the above information ?
All of the above. It's a hard pill to swallow but this incompetence is a team effort between all players involved. Changing requirements mid-development, not releasing funds, delays on officially making purchasing decisions, issues with conflict of interest with decision making bodies, political games, excessive bureaucracy in between all steps, etc.. if you are going to ask me to name specific names I can't. These issues have been ongoing for so long that there have been plenty of air chiefs (even long periods without), leaders in mod/hal/arde, government, etc. It sounds like venting (because it kind of is) but the population and media staying ignorant and not really demanding reform is what has allowed India to get into this position.
As of now , I doubt we've anything in our inventory in the IAF which can go head up against the J-20s or even the other FAs the PLAAF wil throw at us except the Rafales of which we have only 36 nos .

Ideally we ought to have exercised our options to import another 36-54 nos before moving on to the MRFA tender. Why hasn't it happened is another eternal mystery that only the IAF , MoD & GoI can answer ? It's either that or you go to resident storyteller for hia version.
Back when MMRCA 1 was ongoing I was really against it and was happy when it was scrapped. I favored domestic production and innovation and thought the whole project was just some corrupt import lobbyists trying to milk the cow one last time... now I realize that the architects for that competition were true patriots and incredibly smart. They had a deep understanding of how flawed procurement/development in India is as well as the threat environment India would be facing. They were very forward looking.

Imagine another universe where that competition ended, the award was negotiated successfully and issued promptly. India today would have 100+ Rafales, the manufacturing setup to quickly add more, and the technological/industrial know-how that would have (at least on some level) been absorbed through the process (thus helping all the domestic projects).

The hope is the first squadron of the Mk-2s when it arrives ~2034-35
It's still good enough for our part of the world right upto the 2040's especially w.r.t Pakistan but with diminishing strategic importance as far as China goes
It will be outdated by the time it comes in any significant numbers. By 2040 most relevant powers will be using drones for the roles that the mk2 is supposed to occupy. I suspect that multirole drones will achieve much more than comparable fighters as they are more easily expendable.

IMO by that time the China problem would've been solved one way or another.
I'm not a fan of wishful thinking like that - just hoping that the problem will somehow go away. This isn't really the thread for it but.. the way I see it, the best case scenario for India is that China is not really in as much economic trouble as some analysts believe. If China feels like time is on it's side it will act later which will give India more time to prepare and get its act together. If China really is in major trouble, and conflict is within the decade, then India can only hope the losses aren't too bad or for the mercy of the West's support.
 
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LCA Mk2 will be fine even in 2035 against China and even the US. Only the primary ASF matters.

Unless a second emergency purchase of 2 Rafale squadrons is made, there is no chance for the induction of new high end jets until the next decade.

That's the reality today.

But the IAF still believes that's fine. They know something we don't.
 
All of the above. It's a hard pill to swallow but this incompetence is a team effort between all players involved. Changing requirements mid-development, not releasing funds, delays on officially making purchasing decisions, issues with conflict of interest with decision making bodies, political games, excessive bureaucracy in between all steps, etc.. if you are going to ask me to name specific names I can't. These issues have been ongoing for so long that there have been plenty of air chiefs (even long periods without), leaders in mod/hal/arde, government, etc. It sounds like venting (because it kind of is) but the population and media staying ignorant and not really demanding reform is what has allowed India to get into this position.

I would hold that the biggest culprits in this particular fiasco, notwithstanding what's happened in the past to be the GoI, MoD & IAF. Even otherwise, when you're redeveloping your entire aerospace ecosystem from scratch ( where in our case was in the early 80's after the initial Kurt Tank driven effort the HAL - Marut saga dtd early 1960's died an early death [1960-1980 ] , the whole team he trained had retired by the early to mid 80s & we had to start afresh ) , it's to be expected that the developing agency & the production agency will need that extra cushion of time to perfect the product & production processes.It's a given.

Pls notice I'm not bringing up the issue of finances or delays or changing goalposts due to these delays etc. I'm just discussing a truism. We lacked support & understanding at the very top namely the Defense Ministry & an understanding defense minister , something that a technically qualified Manohar Parrikar made a world of difference to in his short tenure there. Most people before & since in his post have been place holders. The importance of having a specialist in this position cannot be underestimated. Among all democratic nations of note, we're the only one facing the kind of threats we are who refuse to mend our ways & operate the way we always have throttling the military opinion & participation in our defense decision making process, to compound an already bad situation.

The job of the user agency particularly followed by the ministry in charge apart from supervising the project & keep the tap releasing the funds relatively open is also to be up to date with their paper work & keep pushing it .

Unfortunate as this bit of news sounds it's a fact in our part of the world & something both the user , the ministry & the minister heading the entire ministry were found wanting in this case as well as in the finalization of the order of the Mk-1a .

Back when MMRCA 1 was ongoing I was really against it and was happy when it was scrapped. I favored domestic production and innovation and thought the whole project was just some corrupt import lobbyists trying to milk the cow one last time... now I realize that the architects for that competition were true patriots and incredibly smart. They had a deep understanding of how flawed procurement/development in India is as well as the threat environment India would be facing. They were very forward looking.


I wouldn't put too much emphasis in how you're framing it. Back in those days we also had a chief of air staff declare war in public against HAL on the basic trainer where he declared that we didn't require a desi trainer. Turns out he got a cut for bringing in Pilatus. We had another one insist on a Russian engine to power the Intermediate trainer still in the works against all advice that it was an inferior engine besides being under development for presumably similar reasons.

If anything, instead of drawing up a holistic plan to pursue Indigenization, drawing up plan b for mitigation in case of delays & pursuing another plan for imports , like what the IN has been doing for decades, the IAF mostly focused on the last option the most for obvious reasons ( not what you written about though that was more often than not used as an excuse for why we must not pursue Indigenization) .

Imagine another universe where that competition ended, the award was negotiated successfully and issued promptly. India today would have 100+ Rafales, the manufacturing setup to quickly add more, and the technological/industrial know-how that would have (at least on some level) been absorbed through the process (thus helping all the domestic projects).

As someone rightly put it a long time ago, most nations in a similar state would pursue results. We pursue processes. Which is why the MMRCA-1. 0 tender was filled with sometimes nonsensical & problematic clauses ,which the French nicely used against us when after being officially declared the lowest bidder, they were sure we wanted the Rafales & let us stew in our own juices by refusing to accede to certain terms after signing on to the tender in the first place knowing full well what to expect .

It will be outdated by the time it comes in any significant numbers. By 2040 most relevant powers will be using drones for the roles that the mk2 is supposed to occupy. I suspect that multirole drones will achieve much more than comparable fighters as they are more easily expendable.
It won't be outdated till the 2050s which is precisely my point. If the last of the Mk-2s roll out of the lines in 2040 by 2050 they don't become obsolete but dated. That's far too short a lifespan for a FA.

We can convert them into drones as well which I suspect is what their MLU will be all about.

I'm not a fan of wishful thinking like that - just hoping that the problem will somehow go away. This isn't really the thread for it but.. the way I see it, the best case scenario for India is that China is not really in as much economic trouble as some analysts believe. If China feels like time is on it's side it will act later which will give India more time to prepare and get its act together. If China really is in major trouble, and conflict is within the decade, then India can only hope the losses aren't too bad or for the mercy of the West's support.

It's not wishful thinking at all. Xi will be 70 this yr. How long do you think he has? He'd be more conscious of his mortality & legacy than anyone on earth. Most military & strategic experts on China conclude that by 2028 China would have everything in place for an invasion of Taiwan. You could add a yr or 2 as cushion for fine tuning his strategy, looking for a right opening etc. If China actually attempts anything before 2028 T/L it means their hand would be forced or they're outstretching themselves.

By 2030 he'd be 77. That's also his upper time limit to act. All this while up until now whatever he's been planning & undertaken till date is by and large to cement his legacy as China's great builder & unifier.

When & how the Chinese move against India remains to be seen. They can't do it after Taiwan since even they're aware they'd have expended a lot of national capital even if they're successful in the end. It has to be before Taiwan but they're gradually veering around to the idea that it's not going to be a short sharp war they had planned for & what they'd like. Ideally they should leave us alone & proceed with operation Taiwan but this is Xi's China. He wants to tie up all loose ends once & for all . After all, it's a question of his legacy.
 
I would hold that the biggest culprits in this particular fiasco, notwithstanding what's happened in the past to be the GoI, MoD & IAF. Even otherwise, when you're redeveloping your entire aerospace ecosystem from scratch ( where in our case was in the early 80's after the initial Kurt Tank driven effort the HAL - Marut saga dtd early 1960's died an early death [1960-1980 ] , the whole team he trained had retired by the early to mid 80s & we had to start afresh ) , it's to be expected that the developing agency & the production agency will need that extra cushion of time to perfect the product & production processes.It's a given.

Pls notice I'm not bringing up the issue of finances or delays or changing goalposts due to these delays etc. I'm just discussing a truism. We lacked support & understanding at the very top namely the Defense Ministry & an understanding defense minister , something that a technically qualified Manohar Parrikar made a world of difference to in his short tenure there. Most people before & since in his post have been place holders. The importance of having a specialist in this position cannot be underestimated. Among all democratic nations of note, we're the only one facing the kind of threats we are who refuse to mend our ways & operate the way we always have throttling the military opinion & participation in our defense decision making process, to compound an already bad situation.

The job of the user agency particularly followed by the ministry in charge apart from supervising the project & keep the tap releasing the funds relatively open is also to be up to date with their paper work & keep pushing it .

Unfortunate as this bit of news sounds it's a fact in our part of the world & something both the user , the ministry & the minister heading the entire ministry were found wanting in this case as well as in the finalization of the order of the Mk-1a .




I wouldn't put too much emphasis in how you're framing it. Back in those days we also had a chief of air staff declare war in public against HAL on the basic trainer where he declared that we didn't require a desi trainer. Turns out he got a cut for bringing in Pilatus. We had another one insist on a Russian engine to power the Intermediate trainer still in the works against all advice that it was an inferior engine besides being under development for presumably similar reasons.

If anything, instead of drawing up a holistic plan to pursue Indigenization, drawing up plan b for mitigation in case of delays & pursuing another plan for imports , like what the IN has been doing for decades, the IAF mostly focused on the last option the most for obvious reasons ( not what you written about though that was more often than not used as an excuse for why we must not pursue Indigenization) .



As someone rightly put it a long time ago, most nations in a similar state would pursue results. We pursue processes. Which is why the MMRCA-1. 0 tender was filled with sometimes nonsensical & problematic clauses ,which the French nicely used against us when after being officially declared the lowest bidder, they were sure we wanted the Rafales & let us stew in our own juices by refusing to accede to certain terms after signing on to the tender in the first place knowing full well what to expect .


It won't be outdated till the 2050s which is precisely my point. If the last of the Mk-2s roll out of the lines in 2040 by 2050 they don't become obsolete but dated. That's far too short a lifespan for a FA.

We can convert them into drones as well which I suspect is what their MLU will be all about.



It's not wishful thinking at all. Xi will be 70 this yr. How long do you think he has? He'd be more conscious of his mortality & legacy than anyone on earth. Most military & strategic experts on China conclude that by 2028 China would have everything in place for an invasion of Taiwan. You could add a yr or 2 as cushion for fine tuning his strategy, looking for a right opening etc. If China actually attempts anything before 2028 T/L it means their hand would be forced or they're outstretching themselves.

By 2030 he'd be 77. That's also his upper time limit to act. All this while up until now whatever he's been planning & undertaken till date is by and large to cement his legacy as China's great builder & unifier.

When & how the Chinese move against India remains to be seen. They can't do it after Taiwan since even they're aware they'd have expended a lot of national capital even if they're successful in the end. It has to be before Taiwan but they're gradually veering around to the idea that it's not going to be a short sharp war they had planned for & what they'd like. Ideally they should leave us alone & proceed with operation Taiwan but this is Xi's China. He wants to tie up all loose ends once & for all . After all, it's a question of his legacy.
It seems the adventures in our border was more like a diversionary tactics than actual intention for Chinese.
Chinese knows more than anyone else that India is not Ukraine.Last Tawang debacle backfired to them spectacularly.
A war between India and China would be a war of attrition unless an involvment of Pakistan or a full fledged mobilization of PLA.It would be a more of missile strikes than the actual dog fighting .Both India and China can churn out missile as much as possible.Then come the nukes.
More than that Chinese dont want to kicked out from our market .So like that retired PAF Vice Marshal they fight between India and China never going to graduate from spike laden stick fighting
 
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They probably just finalised work share part after clearance came recently. Until you get Goc doc signed & sealed you can't proceed officially, theoretically. Your investment on it will be at risk.
This paperwork part is more confusing than making the jet. Utterly crazy amount of doc you have to prepare & submit for everything.
 
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84K crore orders pending, 55K crore coming up: HAL chief Ananthakrishnan​

Bengaluru (Karnataka) [India], February 9 (ANI): In the wake of Prime Minister Narendra Modi's recent assertion that the state-owned Hindustan Aeronautics Limited has a huge number of orders for aircraft and choppers, the chairman of the PSU said that the state-owned entity has pending orders worth Rs 84,000, while orders worth Rs 55,000 were in the pipeline.

Hindustan Aeronautics Limited (HAL) CMD CB Ananthakrishnan told ANI, "Our order book position is comfortable, it stands at around Rs 84,000 crore. We have been generating revenues of Rs 25,000 crores which has shown a growth of eight percent. We have sufficient contracts to be executed."

"Almost Rs 84,000 crore of orders are pending. Another Rs 55000 crore orders are in the pipeline, likely to materialize in the next six months to one year. So, all in all, we will have a healthy order book. Our capacity is 30 helicopters per annum," he stated.

"We will try to ramp it up to 60 helicopters. If demand is at its peak, then we can take it to 90 helicopters," the HAL chief stated.

He further said sanction for the LCA (Light Combat Aircraft) Mark II, has come and that the Defence Research and Development Organisation (DRDO) and HAL will together be able to roll out the first LCA Mark II sometime in the year 2024-25.
While talking about HAL's Advanced Medium Combat Aircraft (AMCA) project, the HAL chief stated,"We are also a design partner in building prototypes in this project. In another five to six years, the product should be available."
"The execution timeframe is starting from February 2024. We are confident that we will be able to deliver the first aircraft in February 2024," he added.
Prime Minister Modi had while inaugurating a HAL helicopter factory in Karnataka's Tumakuru recently lashed out at the Opposition for spreading "misinformation" about Hindustan Aeronautics Limited (HAL) in the past.

PM Modi also recalled earlier Parliamentary sessions that were disrupted by the Opposition over the demand for a Joint Parliamentary Committee probe into the Rafale deal.
"Tumakuru has got a big helicopter factory today. Karnataka is a land of young talent and innovation. The world is seeing the manufacturing power of Karnataka from drone manufacturing to Tejas fighter planes. The double-engine government has made Karnataka the first choice of investors. The inauguration of the helicopter factory is an example of how the double-engine government works," PM Modi said.

 

84K crore orders pending, 55K crore coming up: HAL chief Ananthakrishnan​




The possible orders on pipeline are likely LCH, LUH and additional ALH variants.
 
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Also the engines deal, AMC & RHO work. Those are good short term revenue streams. One thing is interesting HAL might be pushing for the extra Su30 orders, after the recent crash I wonder what MoD thinking would be, almost a whole squadron worth of shortfall now.
 
So from 1st Qtr 2022 , to Aug 2022 to Dec 22 to then Dec 23 now the Mk-2 rollout has been postponed Dec 24b, if at all , which means first flight effectively happens in Dec 25 & tentative FOC date from there is 5 yrs meaning Dec 2030 & the other 3 prototypes cum production grade models by Apr/May 26 onwards .

We'd receive our first squadron of Mk-2 only by Dec 2035 . It could be better than the Rafale F.5 , for all we know , but it doesn't matter in the least , as the Goddamned project is just too late . Makes more sense to go in for additional nos of AMCA Mk-2 or Mk-1 .

@Sathya
 
So from 1st Qtr 2022 , to Aug 2022 to Dec 22 to then Dec 23 now the Mk-2 rollout has been postponed Dec 24b, if at all , which means first flight effectively happens in Dec 25 & tentative FOC date from there is 5 yrs meaning Dec 2030 & the other 3 prototypes cum production grade models by Apr/May 26 onwards .

We'd receive our first squadron of Mk-2 only by Dec 2035 . It could be better than the Rafale F.5 , for all we know , but it doesn't matter in the least , as the Goddamned project is just too late . Makes more sense to go in for additional nos of AMCA Mk-2 or Mk-1 .

@Sathya

No need to trust these dates..
We ll talk about the timelines after the roll out.

I read that tweet few times.

HVT was saying, Mk2 will be up-to-date with Rafale, it's only the twin engined cousin TEDBF that ll exceed the Rafale..
 
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No need to trust these dates..
We ll talk about the timelines after the roll out.

I read that tweet few times.

HVT was saying, Mk2 will be up-to-date with Rafale, it's only the twin engined cousin TEDBF that ll exceed the Rafale..
The IAF needs to step in & take charge of the project , divide it into ad hoc IOC & FOC & as RST put it go in for concurrent eng for IOC grade Mk-2 for at least 2 squadrons from Apr 29 onwards .

If we take upto Mar 32 to deliver these 36 nos , then we can immediately begin delivery of remaining 8 squadrons from Apr 32 onwards assuming FOC is obtained by Mar 31 .

These are very tight schedules & unless IAF displays steely resolve , determination & intent this project will be DoA - dead on arrival faster than we realise or as they say in medical parlance - operation successful , patient dead. .
 
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The IAF needs to step in & take charge of the project , divide it into ad hoc IOC & FOC & as RST put it go in for concurrent eng for IOC grade Mk-2 for at least 2 squadrons from Apr 29 onwards .

If we take upto Mar 32 to deliver these 36 nos , then we can immediately begin delivery of remaining 8 squadrons from Apr 32 onwards assuming FOC is obtained by Mar 31 .

These are very tight schedules & unless IAF displays steely resolve , determination & intent this project will be DoA - dead on arrival faster than we realise or as they say in medical parlance - operation successful , patient dead. .
I think current IAF chief made his intentions clear quite a few times. I would not be surprised if the delay is due to that, ADA/HAL would be happy to make it if Govt released funding. That funding came just 3-4 months ago. It won't be out of place if many years down the line we find out current ACM very much opposed desi jets and tried his best to derail projects. Remember RKS Bhadauria sir was not this against ADA projects & now being industry head in UP he is actively coordinating. But current ACM seems to be infighting, hence Govt/PMO/MoD definitely spent time on that issue, so fund release got delayed. Until this current ACM leaves his post & someone more inclined with Govt view I can see problem persisting. Capex not spent is an indicator how some procurement are stuck in files due to this internal politics.

This is just my view btw.