No, Why would IAF order enough mk2 if AMCA is near? The timelines are too close now for LCA mk2 and AMCA Mk1. If they get project approval next year then the difference will be just few years.
ORCA will not exist. Its pointless.
About 350 LCAs are necessary at the minimum. So about 6 squadrons are guaranteed.
The original plan was 270 MKIs + 126 Rafales + 127 FGFA + 140 AMCA + 123 LCA Mk1/A + 201 LCA Mk2 = 987 jets. Remove some of the oldest MKIs and a handful of crashed jets to get to the 45x21 = 945 jets we need.
And then, more Rafales (63) and FGFA (48 two-seaters) would replace the oldest MKIs before the next replacement cycle commences.
Now, with numbers skewed more towards LCA Mk1/A (220), it leaves room for at least 7 Mk2 squadrons to get to the final number.
And, with FGFA gone, it frees up a massive amount of jets. So it's very easy for LCA Mk2 to climb back to 201 jets.
So, 270 MKIs + (36+114) Rafales + 140 AMCA + 220 LCA Mk1/A + 201 LCA Mk2 = 981 jets. Pretty much where we were the first time. And this time, more Rafales and AMCA can replace the oldest MKIs (like the 84 MLUs), 2 squadrons each. Plus, at this time, the LCA Mk1s will also be leaving service. That's another 32 jets, 2 more squadrons.