MWF may fly next year or in 2026 and go to production in 2028. If we start MWF 2 today, it is possible to fly it by 2030 and induct in 2034. This is a reasonable time line.
I was being facetious in my reply to the other user, but I'll ask you seriously - what gives you that confidence? Literally none of India's modern aviation projects have kept to budget/schedule and you think that India will somehow develop a new advanced jet from scratch and induct it within 10 years?
It's good to have pride in your nation, but you can't let those feelings cloud your judgement. In my eyes there is a near 0% chance in the next two decades of India having a competent enough aerospace industry capable of such feats. I have a lengthy reasoning:
Firstly, it's not because Indian engineers/scientists are incapable or anything (it's honestly closer to the opposite), but the framework of Indian bureaucracy/procurement doesn't lend itself towards quick decision making. There are resource constraints, India is ultimately a poor nation which means there is low R&D investment relative to Indian aspirations.
I would also argue that there is a general lethargy amongst Indian decision makers and PSU partners, which inhibits both the timely delivery of ordered items and the further development of facilities needed for testing/production of future innovation. This is compounded by the reluctance to let the Indian private sector run wild - a colonial hangover that persists to this day. All this results in many of the best and brightest just leaving India. In my own field I work with lots of engineers from India who are first class. But they are here in the US - not contributing to industry in India because the opportunities (financial and intellect stimulating) are just so much better here.
It goes without mention that there is a significant lobby within the decision-making apparatus that will always favor imports over domestic capabilities.
All of this combined is why India today (and for the foreseeable future) is at the mercy of other nations for its defense. Even "indigenous" products rely heavily on imports. Just look to the minor issues that are causing delays over importing engines from the US for the Mk1a. These sorts of import delays are so normalized we don't even think about it.
I don't foresee any of these improving over the next 10 years. It will probably take another 10 years after India get s little more jingle in her pocket to begin optimizing for really lean/mature processes to take root.
Thanks for reading my Ted Talk. I hate being the forum's resident pessimist, but someone has to do it I suppose.