The Future of the EU

Picdelamirand-oil said:
Yes it's to make an alliance with Italy against Germany and the next to elect the nazi party is the US. :ROFLMAO:
It's better to have them like this now than in two years' time with the presidential election, we let them do the dirty work, like imprisoning the rioters, sorting out the "gilet jaune" type problems etc ... and in two years' time we replace them.

And if they're trying to force their way into power, we mustn't forget that in France, in such cases, the people cut off the heads of those who tempt them.
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What's the sentiment in France about the elections there?

Two takes I hear on the news here in the US is either that Macron is a genius who is trying to limit the popularity of RN ahead of the presidential election, or he is a moron who is out of touch with the average French person and will cause a few years of policy paralysis with cohabitation.
 
Picdelamirand-oil said:
It's better to have them like this now than in two years' time with the presidential election, we let them do the dirty work, like imprisoning the rioters, sorting out the "gilet jaune" type problems etc ... and in two years' time we replace them.
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lol ! Sound's Like a Rationalization( Just like Russia said " Kiev was feint") after a defeat.
Even if they do the dirty work , They will make sure to take credit and will not stop accumulating political credit points with populace.
Picdelamirand-oil said:
And if they're trying to force their way into power,
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Not sure What do you mean by " Force" ? They Will try by gaining more seats by elections ...I am not sure why are you underestimating them.
Picdelamirand-oil said:
we mustn't forget that in France, in such cases, the people cut off the heads of those who tempt them.
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Oh Really ?? What do you mean " the people cut off the heads of those who tempt them"? Even if People Elect them ??
 
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BMD said:
@Picdelamirand-oil, @Bon Plan, @Amarante
So France just elected the Nazi party.
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Only the first round !
It is now clear that next monday morning they will not have the majority in parliament, so they will not take the prime minister role.

They will see how Macron with a fragile coalition from deep left to classical right will deal with debt, violence, islamism... :ROFLMAO:

The RN party is now, as intended for years, waiting and preparing itself for the 2027 presidential election. 2024 is a Macron's coup, taking every one by surprise.
 
Ginvincible said:
What's the sentiment in France about the elections there?

Two takes I hear on the news here in the US is either that Macron is a genius who is trying to limit the popularity of RN ahead of the presidential election, or he is a moron who is out of touch with the average French person and will cause a few years of policy paralysis with cohabitation.
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The next government will only be able to deal with low level problems, because between the fully left people and the classical right aisle ones, they disagree on all.
During this time our debt grows, grows.....

Macron end may be harder than Hollande one, and it's not much saying.
 
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Bon Plan said:
During this time our debt grows, grows.....
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Macron is responsible for a large part of this growth. It wasn't that bad before him.

It's always the same thing: the debt serves as a cudgel to justify spending cuts. But then the money saved from these spending cuts is not used to reduce the debt, it's used to cut the taxes. So the debt doesn't reduce, it just keeps growing. And then the result of the spending cuts is that more infrastructure goes to ruin, more people get sick, less people get correct education (schools have gone full Lord of the Flies, so good luck with literacy rates in the next ten years); and what do you know, all these short term savings result in long term losses, who could have predicted it?
 
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Bon Plan said:
Indeed. We decided to promote a Stalinian party.
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I don't have the final results by party, but if we go by the latest polls, we have the following breakdown:
LFI would get between 73 and 80 seats, the PS between 60 and 64 seats, the Ecologistes between 33 and 36 seats and the PCF between 11 and 12 seats.
Renaissance would win between 95 and 98 seats, the MoDem between 32 and 34 seats and Horizons between 25 and 26 seats.
Lastly, the so-called "historic channel" Republicans, i.e. those who refused their leader's alliance with the RN, would win 63 to 67 seats.
All we have to do is wait for the Popular Front to fall apart before Ensemble can form a coalition, as in Germany, with the Socialist Party together with LR.
 
I don't see the Popular Front to fall apart because the 1st one that will break will be seen very badly by the citizens who massively praised the union. Quitting Popular Front would mean that your 2027 election is impossible.
 
Thing is that neither Together nor NFP have a majority.

So there are two potential roads now:
  1. A minority NFP government that can be dismissed by a vote of no-confidence from the majority (motion de censure), leading to new elections
  2. A left+center coalition where NFP and Together agree, with difficulty, to a common program. Since there is very little they agree on, they'll both have to compromise and drop some of their more ambitious and controversial reforms.
 
john0496 said:
I don't see the Popular Front to fall apart because the 1st one that will break will be seen very badly by the citizens who massively praised the union. Quitting Popular Front would mean that your 2027 election is impossible.
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This "union" was in fact made to avoid the RN to have a majority. It goes perfectly well.
But now it will be hard to find a common way between full left wing LFI, Socialist party and green party. Even to find a prime minister (Melanchon, the first to speak on TV yesterday evening, is hated by the non LFI members).

I think Macron will try a Renaissance + MoDem + Horizons ticket. The less worst situation now.

Rassemblement National had a blow yesterday, but it had the main voters (8.5 million against 9.5 for the 1st round), when Front Populaire reach 7 millions (nearly 9 in the 1st round). The trend is for RN, for years. 2027 was and is the real target of RN. The next 3 years will be very difficult to deal with (debt, EU sanction).
The party or coalition taking the power in the coming weeks will loose 2027 presidential election.
 
Bon Plan said:
. The trend is for RN, for years. 2027 was and is the real target of RN. The next 3 years will be very difficult to deal with (debt, EU sanction).
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If Macron was politically smart he would have let RN to form govt & commit mistakes , dig themselves a hole. But seems he is too eager to jump into the hole himself.
 
jetray said:
If Macron was politically smart he would have let RN to form govt & commit mistakes , dig themselves a hole. But seems he is too eager to jump into the hole himself.
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Bardella, the leader of the RN party, said he would not accept the post of prime minister if he did not have an absolute majority in the assembly.
 
jetray said:
If Macron was politically smart he would have let RN to form govt & commit mistakes , dig themselves a hole. But seems he is too eager to jump into the hole himself.
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Not really.
RN infact didn't want to form a government in 2024. It is too early. They are not ready. Their real target is the presidential election in 2027.
Now they will make few noise in the assembly, be very polite and clever, and work hard so as to find top rank persons to form a 2027 government.
In the mean time, full left wing will struggle with all the others and opt out themselves, fot the same reason : they are not ready.
Macron take everyone by surprise....
 
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Bon Plan said:
Not really.
RN infact didn't want to form a government in 2024. It is too early. They are not ready. Their real target is the presidential election in 2027.
Now they will make few noise in the assembly, be very polite and clever, and work hard so as to find top rank persons to form a 2027 government.
In the mean time, full left wing will struggle with all the others and opt out themselves, fot the same reason : they are not ready.
Macron take everyone by surprise....
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Picdelamirand-oil said:
Bardella, the leader of the RN party, said he would not accept the post of prime minister if he did not have an absolute majority in the assembly.
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Interesting , they could have made Macron a lame duck president if they could cobble up a simple majority forcing him to accede to their demands.
 
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