Ukraine - Russia Conflict
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US+NATO must bring an end to this war if they want to save Israel and Taiwan. If the war flares up in Middle East Asia, US+NATO will have to fight on three fronts against two very strong armies of China and Russia and third being combined forces of Turkiye+Iran+Syria and others. The nett result will be that they will loose whole of Ukraine, whole of Taiwan and have in hand a fully devasted Israel. Even the Israeli nukes will not be able to change the outcome.
Things continue to go according to plan for Nazi Russia:
ChrisO_wiki (@[email protected])
Attached: 1 image 1/ The Russian authorities are expanding military recruitment to cover migrants, debtors, former mercenaries, private security guards, the unemployed, convicted criminals, ex-convicts and those under investigation for crimes. ⬇️mastodon.social
The Russian authorities are expanding military recruitment to cover migrants, debtors, former mercenaries, private security guards, the unemployed, convicted criminals, ex-convicts and those under investigation for crimes.Important Stories reports that the continuing need for manpower has prompted the Russian government's Office of the Presidential Plenipotentiary Representative to issue a plan to recruit socially vulnerable sections of society into the Russian army.The plan is set out in a letter to the administration of the Central Federal District, which covers Moscow and most of the western part of European Russia. It requires the CFD to provide weekly information on the region's government bodies to recruit individuals for the army.Among the categories set out in an attached table are:
- Reservists, including those demobilised in 2022 and 2023
- Citizens subject to conscription
- Persons under investigation for "crimes of minor or moderate gravity"
- Current and ex-convicts
- Former mercenaries
- Debtors and bankrupt people
- Unemployed people
- People who have recently acquired Russian citizenship
- Foreigners who have applied for Russian citizenship
- Foreigners subject to expulsion or deportation
- Employees of businesses which have made provision for them to sign a militray contract
- Employees of private security companies (PSC)
- Voluntary recruits
The table gives responsibility to various government departments for recruiting people from each category.Although signing a contract is meant to be voluntary – as opposed to mobilisation, which is compulsory – the Russian authorities have many ways of applying pressure, as Sergei Krivenko of the pressure group "Citizen. Army. Right" notes."For example, migration legislation is very unclear and complex. People could come and submit documents, but nothing has been done to them yet. Or the deadlines were missed. And you can either expel this person, his family, or say that we will quickly register you, we will give citizenship to your family, and you will go to fight."There have been many incidents previously of migrants being rounded up and coerced into joining the army. According to a military official in an army recruitment office, coercion is also taking place across a much wider swathe of society.He says that government officials are bringing in "people who are drunk, homeless people, people with obvious mental health issues, drug addicts who have just been released from prison. It feels like they're getting rid of a marginalised layer of society. They don't care at all about the quality of the army. 'They'll be digging trenches,' they say. They don't care what will happen to the families [of the recruits] after they send them there, but they promise them mountains of gold, of course."There was one migrant who hardly even spoke Russian. When I ask them if they came voluntarily, they all say they did. Although I could see that the representative of the administration, who brought the man, was showing with his facial expressions that he should say that."The government officials themselves are also under pressure to meet quotas, which has led to disputes between districts over who should be credited for bringing people to recruitment offices."For example, a person lived in one district, they persuaded him there, they bring him here [to the military unit], and he turns out to have a residence permit of another district. A representative of that district starts to attack [another official]: 'You stole a man from us!'""Some people cry outright that they will be fired if they fail to fulfil the plan, and they have mortgages and children. Or that if they don't find people in time, they will have to give up their employees or go themselves."As the military official notes, "When their career is on the line, they know how to work quickly. And in order to stay at their feeding trough, they are ready to push a lot of people into the firebox. These government officials are now in such fear and treat people [who are recruited for contracts] as a means of survival."Krivenko comments that this recruitment activity is meant to contribute towards the target of 305,000 new contract soldiers set earlier this year by Dmitry Medvedev, the Deputy Chairman of Russia's Security Council."One of the channels for replenishing the army is conscripts. While in the barracks, they are subjected to intense pressure. Many are deceived and a contract is signed for them ... The second point is that people from private military companies and [Luhansk & Donetsk 'People's Republic'] formations were transferred under the control of the Ministry of Defence, and they were also forced to sign contracts."A third channel is the recruitment of civilians, of whom Krivenko suggests around 50-70,000 have been signed contracts. The military official comments that about half have come voluntarily, while the other half have been brought in by government officials.Source:
«Добровольцы» на войну: мигранты, банкроты, должники и безработные
«Важные истории» выяснили, какие категории населения аппарат полпреда президента в ЦФО поручил региональным властям вербовать на войну в первую очередьstorage.googleapis.com
Interestingly, China has been artificially creating a pool of such people since the pandemic hit, especially defaulting debtors and the bankrupt.
These talks won't work. It's too late, the Russians are gonna take whatever they want, and the West wants to initiate talks just to limit that. It's like what Trump said, better to end the war at the current line of control or the Russians will keep taking more. I don't see any reason for the Russians to stop, unless the Ukrainians are willing to accept a major withdrawal to Ukrainian-majority regions, including withdrawal from Odessa oblast.
Ending the war with the current line of control just means that Russia will continue. Russia has achieved control over a large part of the Ukrainian territory. If they get to keep it, it's a victory for them. If this war is a victory for Russia, they'll do another as soon as they've rebuilt their forces.
The only way to have long-lasting peace is to completely and entirely kick Russia out of Ukraine so that their war is a clear defeat, then deter further aggression by 1. including Ukraine in NATO and 2. engaging seriously in the arms race. Russian interests and influence in the global south must also be countered by all means necessary.
Any other plan is utter delusion at best, actual treason at worst. Those "unnamed officials" who are agitating for peace talks, if they really exist, are traitors.
Given some of the reporting of the last week, it’s clear that we’re in for another wave of discussion about whether Ukraine should be pushed to the negotiating table. A ??
I don’t want to focus on the ethics, or otherwise, of trying to pressure Ukraine to make concessions in order to freeze the conflict. Instead, I want to look at the implications of these policies for regional, European, and therefore also US security.
I think it’s very unlikely that Western govts would try to force Ukraine to cede any of its territory to Russia. The sovereignty/territorial integrity principles are too important for their conception of international order (as long as you ignore Kosovo).
It would also be too embarrassing a retreat from the position of the last decade on Crimea & Donbas.
So any peace deal Western partners might try to push Ukraine into signing would involve a pause, not a resolution to the fighting. This would create a frozen conflict. We can be pretty confident that’s what the Russian government is hoping for because it *loves* frozen conflicts.
The term “frozen conflicts” (as far as I know) was coined to refer to conflicts in the Soviet successor states, as they were then described. They were triggered by the breakup of the USSR and, 30 years on, none have been What froze the conflicts – what both stopped the fighting and prevented final resolution – was Russian military intervention, referred to by the Russians as peacekeeping (and pretty much everyone else as “peacekeeping”).
Frozen conflicts increase Russian access to the contested territory, allowing it to develop its military presence in areas it considers strategically important and expanding relations of political and economic dependence.
Russian dominance means the Kremlin can shape the conditions under which fighting does or doesn’t resume.
Frozen conflicts perform 3 key functions for Russia. 1. Control over the state in question. For 30 years, this has been one of the two preferred tools of Russian coercion in the region (the other is energy blackmail).
With “peacekeeping” forces in place and Russian political and economic domination of the breakaway region, a frozen conflict acts as a choke chain around the neck of the affected state, to be tightened when that state’s govt needs to be brought into line.
2: It allows for the consolidation and expansion of Russian military presence in the contested territory. This helps advance both defensive and offensive objectives.
It allows Russia to protect what the Kremlin sees as its zone of strategic interest and reclaim what it sees as its military bases (lost when the USSR collapsed).
More importantly from the Western perspective, the expansion of Russia’s military presence in these territories facilitates further invasions and annexations. It allows Russia to build up forces beyond its borders that can then be used to attack further West/South in the future.
For example, the annexation of Crimea created the conditions under which the Feb 22 invasion was possible; the military presence in Abkhazia is allowing Russia to relocate some of the Black Sea Fleet pushed out of Crimea by Ukrainian attacks.
3. Because of 1 &2, frozen conflicts make Western states and organisations nervous about developing closer ties to the states who have lost control of parts of their territory.
It took an actual full-scale invasion for them to overcome this anxiety (up to a point) and support Ukraine (also up to a point). Keeping the West out is one of Russia’s main objectives in cultivating frozen conflicts.
The lack of a final resolution in frozen conflicts is important from the Russian govt’s perspective. Resolution removes both a coercive tool in relation to the affected state and the uncertainty frightening the West.
The desire to push Ukraine to the negotiating table is deeply misguided. It won't make the war go away, allow Europe to stop worrying about the expansion of the conflict and energy insecurity, or the US to get back to (as some clearly see it) more important business.
It would simply give the Russian govt what it wants – the time to try to recover and to do what it does with frozen conflicts, including consolidate its military forces in occupied Ukrainian regions.
That matters for Western security because the relationship with Russia is now extremely hostile (arguably worse than any point since the Cuban Missile Crisis) and because it will be taken by the Kremlin as confirmation of Western weakness – that the West has bottled it once again.
That is not a scenario in which the West would be wise to allow Russia the time and space to build up military strength in occupied regions.
And what would it do to the relationship between Ukraine (govt and people) and Western states and institutions? Nothing good.
Again, setting aside the ethical issues, there is an obvious issue of self-interest in maintaining strong relations with Ukraine in an era of extreme Russian hostility to the West.
As frightening, destabilizing, and costly as the war is, an attempt to push Ukraine into agreements that would create a frozen conflict would be more destabilizing, more costly, and more frightening in the long run.
Frozen conflicts are installment plan wars, and the only person who benefits from that model is the vendor: Russia.
Russian troops using Leer-3 able to jam Ukrainian army mobile phone signals within 30 km | Defense News October 2022 Global Security army industry | Defense Security global news industry army year 2022 | Archive News year
Russian troops using Leer-3 able to jam Ukrainian army mobile phone signals within 30 km
The commander of the Ukrainian Air Force would like to thank the pilots of the tactical aviation of the Air Force of Ukraine for the successful strikes by cruise missiles on the infrastructure of the "Zaliv" shipyard in Kerch, where one of the most modern ships of the Russian Navy was stationed - the Kalibr cruise missile carrier. He also hinted that the blow was inflicted by French SCALP EG cruise missiles
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