Ukraine - Russia Conflict
- Thread starter randomradio
- Start date
1. DO NOT FALL FOR ANY OF THE 
MINISTRY OF ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT’S NONSENSE.
They are going to try to take the bad news from the Central Bank & try to spin it to pretend that it’s not as bad as it seems.
2. DO NOT ASSUME THAT THE CENTRAL BANKS PROJECTIONS ARE EVEN CLOSE TO ACCURATE
I showed you how quickly & far off the Central Banks projections from last year were from that actual results. They are even spinning it to make it look better. Imagine how bad the reality is.
3. THINGS ARE GETTING WORSE
If you really look at the charts I’ve made, and read the threads I’ve written you will see the same trend. Things are getting progressively worse over time. Do NOT assume that 20% is the highest the Key Rate could go.
4. DO NOT ASSUME THE RUSSIA’S ACTIONS WILL MAKE SENSE
They frequently make decisions that contrary to what needs to happen to serve their best interests.
5. DO NOT BELIEVE ANYTHING RUSSIA DECLARES THEY ARE GOING TO ACHIEVE UNTIL THEY HAVE ACTUALLY DONE IT.
Putin will often declare he’s going to do [insert thing] but then they don’t follow through, either because they can’t, or they don’t adequately fund the projects.
6. GIVE THE SITUATION SOME TIME BEFORE MAKING CONCLUSIONS ABOUT HOW THE KEY RATE CHANGE WILL EFFECT THINGS.
I’d wait until at least a couple OFZ and until we know what’s left in the liquid assets of the National Welfare Fund (beginning of August).
7. The next Scheduled Central Bank Meeting is 13 September, but the Central Bank has the option to call an EMERGENCY MEETING if necessary.
Last Year, the Central Bank had a scheduled meeting on:
21 July 2023 where they raised the Key Rate from 7.5% to 8.5%
THEN they called an EMERGENCY meeting on:
15 August 2023 where they raised they key rate AGAIN to 12%
When they held the next SCHEDULED Key Rate Meeting on:
15 September 2023 they raised the key rate AGAIN to 13%
If that sort of jump were to repeat itself this year for example that would mean that by the end of September 2024’s Central Bank Meeting the Key Rate could be 22.5%.
I’m not saying that will happen, but it gives you an idea of how quickly things can & did escalate.
8. The Russian Central Bank (Elvira Nabiullina SPECIFICALLY) is probably one of the best sources you’ll get in Russia, and even she has to spin things.
IT IS IMPORTANT to pay attention to the source at the Central Bank. Random “analysts” are not a good source.
If it’s Alexey Zabotkin, ignore any of his facts (because he’s probably manipulating things) and maybe try figure out what narrative he’s been sent to sell.
Remember: “Best source” still doesn’t mean “good source”.
And if the Russian Central Bank is likely making things look better, you can see why the statements from Ministry of Economy are worse.
9. Don’t trust the Russian Ministry of Finance. Period. A lot of money suddenly went missing last year.
10. IT WILL GET WORSE
MINISTRY OF ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT’S NONSENSE.They are going to try to take the bad news from the Central Bank & try to spin it to pretend that it’s not as bad as it seems.
2. DO NOT ASSUME THAT THE CENTRAL BANKS PROJECTIONS ARE EVEN CLOSE TO ACCURATE
I showed you how quickly & far off the Central Banks projections from last year were from that actual results. They are even spinning it to make it look better. Imagine how bad the reality is.
3. THINGS ARE GETTING WORSE
If you really look at the charts I’ve made, and read the threads I’ve written you will see the same trend. Things are getting progressively worse over time. Do NOT assume that 20% is the highest the Key Rate could go.
4. DO NOT ASSUME THE RUSSIA’S ACTIONS WILL MAKE SENSE
They frequently make decisions that contrary to what needs to happen to serve their best interests.
5. DO NOT BELIEVE ANYTHING RUSSIA DECLARES THEY ARE GOING TO ACHIEVE UNTIL THEY HAVE ACTUALLY DONE IT.
Putin will often declare he’s going to do [insert thing] but then they don’t follow through, either because they can’t, or they don’t adequately fund the projects.
6. GIVE THE SITUATION SOME TIME BEFORE MAKING CONCLUSIONS ABOUT HOW THE KEY RATE CHANGE WILL EFFECT THINGS.
I’d wait until at least a couple OFZ and until we know what’s left in the liquid assets of the National Welfare Fund (beginning of August).
7. The next Scheduled Central Bank Meeting is 13 September, but the Central Bank has the option to call an EMERGENCY MEETING if necessary.
Last Year, the
Central Bank had a scheduled meeting on: 21 July 2023 where they raised the Key Rate from 7.5% to 8.5%THEN they called an EMERGENCY meeting on:
15 August 2023 where they raised they key rate AGAIN to 12%When they held the next SCHEDULED Key Rate Meeting on:
15 September 2023 they raised the key rate AGAIN to 13%If that sort of jump were to repeat itself this year for example that would mean that by the end of September 2024’s Central Bank Meeting the Key Rate could be 22.5%.
I’m not saying that will happen, but it gives you an idea of how quickly things can & did escalate.
8. The Russian Central Bank (Elvira Nabiullina SPECIFICALLY) is probably one of the best sources you’ll get in Russia, and even she has to spin things.
IT IS IMPORTANT to pay attention to the source at the Central Bank. Random “analysts” are not a good source.
If it’s Alexey Zabotkin, ignore any of his facts (because he’s probably manipulating things) and maybe try figure out what narrative he’s been sent to sell.
Remember: “Best source” still doesn’t mean “good source”.
And if the Russian Central Bank is likely making things look better, you can see why the statements from Ministry of Economy are worse.
9. Don’t trust the Russian Ministry of Finance. Period. A lot of money suddenly went missing last year.
10. IT WILL GET WORSE
Footage of an artillery duel in Ukraine has been published, between the Russian 203-mm 2S7M Malka SPG and the Ukrainian 155-mm German-made PzH 2000 SPG. The Malka SPG is the most powerful weapon in the Russian army, with a firing range of up to 47 kilometers. The Panzerhaubitze 2000 SPG began to be produced in Germany in 1998, with a firing range of up to 67 km with an active-reactive projectile. The artillery battle was filmed in the Avdiivka direction. The Ukrainian PzH 2000 SPG was destroyed with the third shot at a range of 20 km, the Malka SPG used a high-explosive fragmentation projectile. The fire of the Malka SPG was adjusted by a crew from the Russian ZALA reconnaissance drone.
Russian servicemen spoke about the experience of using the Shturm-S self-propelled anti-tank missile systems in Ukraine; the 9P149 combat vehicles have not been shown for almost a year. The Shturm-S anti-tank system was adopted for service in 1979 and was created on the chassis of the MT-LB transporter-tractor; technical information about it is on the channel. The 9P149 combat vehicle is highly rated by soldiers for its cross-country ability, reliability, speed and squat silhouette. Details in the video.
I think the article is going to maybe distract people from the bigger picture understanding of the problem.
And I’ve actually seen this problem frequently with Russian data.
So I think it’s time for a lesson on interpreting data in these articles. So you don’t fall for a trap
In an *ideal* situation the elevators demand would be smooth with a gradual increase over time as population centers grow.
In that situation you could take the total number of elevators
581,000
And then divide by 25 (the service life in years) and replace that many per year.
23,240 per year
11,620 per 6 months
So in an IDEAL situation, they aren’t replacing them fast enough
They have indicated that
72,000 have been in service over 25 years.
That’s about 1 in 8
They’re going to want to blame “western companies” leaving for the problem, but clearly this has been going on for a while.
I talked about an *ideal situation* but that’s not how these things typically work.
If there was a big building boom, you may have had a lot of elevators installed at once, and then perhaps in a recession, none at all.
Without looking at a graph of the ages we don’t know if a lot of these are getting close to the 25 year mark.
What if 30% of them were built 23 years ago? They aren’t keeping up with replacements NOW.
For example: Remember Russian Railways is a monopoly with one shareholder, the Russian government.
Around HALF of all Russian Railways locomotives are over 20 years old, and they had have a painfully long argument to get them to understand the associated problems
In particular, that it take longer to maintain and repair and old locomotive that they don’t make spare parts for.
Really simple stuff. And Russian railways eliminated their ENTIRE MAINTENANCE DEPARTMENT years ago.
This is a systematic problem where like Russia’s military, a large portion of the country appears to be running on last dregs of lifespan left in Soviet era equipment.
Instead of actually fixing the problems they continue to try to patch up the Soviet stuff & hope it works.
And the RUSSIAN GOVERNMENT KEEPS CUTTING THE BUDGETS so they can continue to fund the war.
They de-incentivize people from making capital investments, they are taking larger sums of money in taxes, and lean on businesses making price increases necessary build & maintain systems
Expect this whole pattern to repeat throughout Russia, and note that I currently see no sign of it changing.
It will get worse.
And I’ve actually seen this problem frequently with Russian data.
So I think it’s time for a lesson on interpreting data in these articles. So you don’t fall for a trap
In an *ideal* situation the elevators demand would be smooth with a gradual increase over time as population centers grow.
In that situation you could take the total number of elevators
581,000And then divide by 25 (the service life in years) and replace that many per year.
23,240 per year 11,620 per 6 monthsSo in an IDEAL situation, they aren’t replacing them fast enough
They have indicated that
72,000 have been in service over 25 years.That’s about 1 in 8
They’re going to want to blame “western companies” leaving for the problem, but clearly this has been going on for a while.
I talked about an *ideal situation* but that’s not how these things typically work.
If there was a big building boom, you may have had a lot of elevators installed at once, and then perhaps in a recession, none at all.
Without looking at a graph of the ages we don’t know if a lot of these are getting close to the 25 year mark.
What if 30% of them were built 23 years ago? They aren’t keeping up with replacements NOW.
For example: Remember Russian Railways is a monopoly with one shareholder, the Russian government.
Around HALF of all Russian Railways locomotives are over 20 years old, and they had have a painfully long argument to get them to understand the associated problems
In particular, that it take longer to maintain and repair and old locomotive that they don’t make spare parts for.
Really simple stuff. And Russian railways eliminated their ENTIRE MAINTENANCE DEPARTMENT years ago.
This is a systematic problem where like Russia’s military, a large portion of the country appears to be running on last dregs of lifespan left in Soviet era equipment.
Instead of actually fixing the problems they continue to try to patch up the Soviet stuff & hope it works.
And the RUSSIAN GOVERNMENT KEEPS CUTTING THE BUDGETS so they can continue to fund the war.
They de-incentivize people from making capital investments, they are taking larger sums of money in taxes, and lean on businesses making price increases necessary build & maintain systems
Expect this whole pattern to repeat throughout Russia, and note that I currently see no sign of it changing.
It will get worse.
Looks like russia is upset about Armenia escaping their grasp.
Note: It is my opinion that there was never an END to mobilization. There were no limits at all placed in the original “partial mobilization” declaration document. Not in numbers or in time period.
Why would Putin limit himself?
The only limitation on mobilization that I have observed is that the organization that was responsible for carrying out the mobilization is ALSO responsible for carrying out conscription (Spring & Fall)
That means they have to pause one to complete the other
That’s it.
It’s only a matter of if they CHOOSE to do it or not. No declaration or announcement necessary.
Note: It is my opinion that there was never an END to mobilization. There were no limits at all placed in the original “partial mobilization” declaration document. Not in numbers or in time period.
Why would Putin limit himself?
The only limitation on mobilization that I have observed is that the organization that was responsible for carrying out the mobilization is ALSO responsible for carrying out conscription (Spring & Fall)
That means they have to pause one to complete the other
That’s it.
It’s only a matter of if they CHOOSE to do it or not. No declaration or announcement necessary.
russian wagnerites got wrecked in Mali. Including, perhaps, the guy who managed the "Grey Zone" Telegram channel.
https://nitter.poast.org/NOELreports/status/1817298267958333870 -- not embedding that one; lots and lots and lots of russian corpses.
https://nitter.poast.org/NOELreports/status/1817298267958333870 -- not embedding that one; lots and lots and lots of russian corpses.
Indian PM Modi likely to visit Kyiv next month.
www.indiatoday.in
PM Modi likely to visit Ukraine on August 23, first since Russia invasion
PM Modi is expected to visit Ukraine on August 23 to meet President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, marking his first visit since the war with Russia.
The wonderful news from Mali just won't stop:
The thing about orcs, is that they can't help being orcs:
Pretty good news from other places, too:
Further "God's messages are still too subtle", a lightning strike killed two men in Moscow's "Patriot Park" in front of the so-called "Church of the Armed Forces".
The thing about orcs, is that they can't help being orcs:
Pretty good news from other places, too:
Further "God's messages are still too subtle", a lightning strike killed two men in Moscow's "Patriot Park" in front of the so-called "Church of the Armed Forces".
In Patriot Park in the Moscow region, three people were struck by lightning.
According to OINFO, the incident occurred in front of the Main
Temple of the Russian Armed Forces. Lightning struck two men and a girl.
“The latter stood up on her own, and the men remained lying on the
ground,” the publication says.
