Ukrainian forces slowly but surely are on a retreat on all fronts.... Momentum is with Russia now.
Not on the Kharkiv front, where russia is on the backfoot. Ukraine also recently has pushed back the russians a bit in the forest near Kremina. Elsewhere, yes, the russians are progressing.
But this movement, on either side, is not really relevant on a strategic level. At the current pace, it'd take russia decades to get the rest of Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts. And russia doesn't have decades. People have been commenting for the last two years that russia's losses are unsustainable. Of course, tankies have pointed out that since russia is still sustaining these losses happily, it means that actually, the losses are sustainable forever; because they don't make a difference between "large reserves" and "infinite reserves".
Meanwhile, we've seen several things happening on the battlefield.
- russian troops getting sent back to fight despite having untreated wounds -- sometimes even crippling wounds.
- greater and greater financial incentives for russians to enroll. Theoretically, a contractee from Moscow oblast is now paid more than a US soldier -- despite the abysmal exchange rate from the ruble to the dollar.
- unarmored vehicles such as Bukhanka, Desertcross-1000, and even motorbikes getting used closer and closer to the front instead of armored vehicles; sometimes even using them for storming operations.
- antique weapons like T-54, T-55 are increasingly seen on the battlefield. The M-46 howitzer, which the Soviet Union had removed from service in the 1970s, has been pressed back into service thanks to supplies of North Korean ammunition.
So russia is actually running out of men and materiel. They've had to beg from Iran and North Korea in order to gain some time.
And the russian GDP growth is
entirely due to the sovereign wealth fund money getting injected in the economy to fund the war. It's not a real growth. And in fact, it's worse than growth, because it is destroying russia's non-military-related sectors to feed the military-related sectors. There's huge inflation, labor shortages everywhere, and taxes and fees are increasing constantly.
My predictions remain that russia will maintain an advantage over Ukraine for the rest of the year; until winter. Then in 2025, things will swing in Ukraine's favor. The war will be over in 2026, when russia will finally collapse.
What russia hopes is that a Trump win will coerce Ukraine into capitulating, and then sanctions will be dropped and it'll be able to rebuild its economy. I don't believe that this scenario will happen; though. Even if Trump wins.