To be honest, I think Putin has achieved enough to sell it as a "win" domestically. Zelensky is the only one clamoring for a full return to pre-2014 borders.
I haven't followed the war closely or at all since the first few months but do tell me how much land have the Russkies added to their 2014 conquest ? I'm guessing not very much .
Can Putin sell it as a win ? Sure he can for a loss only means he loses all his gains since 2014. I assume that's what you're referring to when you claim the West wants Ukraine to win, in which case this becomes a totally different scenario & what I suggested in my previous post comes into play.
Zelensky can demand what he wants . He's not known as the comedian out here just like that .
Of course we all know Russia has lost. Their border with NATO is far larger and they have a permanent enemy placed like a dagger to their throat.
How has Russia lost ? The war is still being waged on Ukrainian soil. Unless you subscribe to binaries . It's the kind of propaganda we hear from Paxtanis on a daily basis on SM that Paxtan has won because it has survived to fight another day only to get it's a r s e whooped again. You're seeing that exact situation being replicated by Hamas in its encounter with the Israel unless you're of the opinion Hamas has won.
There is a perception which is being conveyed that Russia has lost because Ukraine has survived 2+ years of war against Russia with nothing much to show by the latter. I'm sorry that's just a cope.
For Ukraine to win this war it should be reclaiming all those lands that Russia's seized from it or conquer a proportionate piece of Russian territory , give or take , preferably both ,which they seem to have embarked on .
Right now , I'd say it's a stalemate . Period.
The Russians can be happy about securing a land bridge to Crimea for whatever that's worth.
They already did that in 2014 if I'm not mistaken.
I don't believe the Russians will use nukes unless they are facing total military collapse or are facing inbound nukes. Salami slicing is something all Indian defence enthusiasts understand well. That is what the West has done to Russia's "red lines".
A total military collapse is what will happen when Ukraine is winning . For Ukraine to win it must first liberate the Crimea & other territories the Russians have occupied in Eastern Ukraine.
Post that they must launch a massive counter offensive against Russia , seize & hold on to significant chunks of land there.
That's crossing Russian red lines. I don't think I need to add how Putin would respond.
In case you think I'm rooting for Russia , let me categorically state that for Russia to win this war it must replicate all what I've typed above for Ukraine , in Ukraine.
Is the West worried Ukraine will achieve victory , hence isn't arming Ukraine with the kind of weapons they require or the quantum they should be arming Ukraine with ?
I don't think the West seriously thinks Ukraine has any chance of winning this war irrespective how much they arm Ukraine , no matter what fluff they give out in public. They're just surprised Ukraine has lasted as long as it has & taken the fight to the Russians.
And because the Ukrainians have survived as long as they did giving a good account of themselves they figured why not bleed Russia more !
Of course this comes with a caveat of not over extending themselves by arming Ukraine to the extent that they cause great damage to Russia else the latter would be tempted to go in for nukes. And I mean real material damage here not a conquest of land . I've already delineated that scenario above.
And it's occurred to me , I've also just about covered everything Ukraine is capable of doing in this conflict.
Think about it. Bradleys and Challengers, operated by troops in NATO uniforms, with NATO rifles shooting 5.56mm rounds, firing western artillery, flying F-16s are controlling 1000 square kilometers of Russian land. The idea of invading Russia was always seen as the ultimate red line...
Russia doesn't really have any plausible red lines left.
Already answered this above. Let me categorically reiterate this if it isn't clear - No nuclear power can be defeated by a non nuclear power till they have themselves voluntarily accepted their defeat & withdrawn.
I've already described why Russia hasn't been defeated as of the present , why Putin cannot be defeated along with his red lines & in case Russia's military collapses which is a red line how would Putin respond .
The West has a real chance to change the game in this war right now of they really want to. Instead of having our soldiers fight Russians directly, we could handle things like search and rescue, firefighting, air defense, logistics, and security. This would free up Ukrainian forces for the front lines, which they really need. If Russia isn’t responding to an invasion of its own land, maybe it’s time for NATO peacekeepers to step in for humanitarian reasons.
I hope you realise what you're proposing will not only be construed by Russia but the rest of the world as NATO entering the war on Ukraine's side immaterial how you choose to describe it ? That's the reddest of all red lines.
If I was a bookie I'd say all bets are off.
I mean, I generally don't disagree. Both Russia and Ukraine will have rough futures ahead of them. The difference being that Ukraine will be integrated into Eurozone over time, while Russia will be a pariah for the developed world. I'm fairly certain Russia will continue not innovating their economy and will just rely on fossil fuel revenues (unfortunate considering their other vast resources)
I'm not sure you're familiar with the TFRs of the EU as a whole in the present . It's a disaster in the making . Add to it a stagnant economy , predatory trading policies by China , an US which is determined to sabotage EU's independent streak be in it defence or diplomacy or more to the point here their economy & you've a lot going on here even otherwise. I've not even touched on the refugee crisis or the immigration situation.
For the first time since 1960, the number of live births in the EU has fallen below 4 million, one of the lowest fertility rates in the world.
www.euronews.com
If this war ends in a CF as I anticipate & eventually full fledged hostilities resume a few years later this time with NATO minus the US ( which'd be busy with China in the Indo Pacific ) + Ukraine against Russia , does it really matter who wins ? It'd be a Pyrrhic victory which ever way you see it & the existing heirarchy gets demolished only this time there's going to be no Marshal Plan.
The West has gotten to trial and test their military equipment and gain lots if sensor data without shedding a single life. They've understood how behind they are in arms production and are ramping up, not just for Russia but with China in mind too.
And Russia won't ? They'd have the most battle hardened army in the whole wide world
I also don't foresee Putin throwing in with China. He visited Beijing before his invasion and made a big deal about their friendship. How has Xi repaid him? By price gouging him and making non-comittal statements. Russia is too spent to make any more efforts for far longer than China's window to invade Taiwan.
Russia dependencies on China will be there but there's mutual distrust. However in the final reckoning they both have common enemies . That's the most important consideration. It's like Japan & Germany in WW-2 . What bound them together except a common enemy & opportunism ?
Europe will deal with its own problems. They will have to figure out immigration one way or another. Most Americans will be happy as long as they remain pluralisitic liberal democracies. Maybe they get a few more kebab shops along the way.
Answered this above.
I am actually a bit pessimistic as well. Not because of demographics per se. If their economy was doing well it would resolve itself. European nations have just been stifling growth and innovation rather than promoting it. They are wealthy though, so maybe theyll just chug along somehow.
Answered this one too above.
Ah ok ! I reckon the single largest ethnic group from India eventually will be the Gujaratis followed by the Andhra ites , if that's not already the case.
Btw , if it's not too much to ask , which part of India were your folks from ?
