Episode with the evacuation of a Ukrainian 1A3 "Marder" BMP of German manufacture by a Russian BREM-1 repair and recovery vehicle. The video was presumably filmed in the Kursk region of Russia. The 1A3 "Marder" BMP is equipped with a homemade protection against drones, in the form of a small "barbecue" on the turret.
Ukraine - Russia Conflict
- Thread starter randomradio
- Start date
Obviously all the stuff didn't go up at once otherwise it would have been more like 4.8.
It looked way bigger than a 30 ton explosion TBH, that's only FOAB size afterall. I would have said kilotons from the size of fireball.
Kremlin slams Meta ban on Russian state media as 'unacceptable'
San Francisco (AFP) Sept 17, 2024 - Meta said it is banning Russian state media outlets from its apps around the world, prompting an angry reaction from the Kremlin on Tuesday.
www.spacewar.com
I firmly believe that after a ceasefire is agreed to and some semblance of normalcy returns, Zelensky will be made to leave office. He's in office right not because of martial law, but I don't think he's as popular with Ukrainians as we're led to believe. Whether pressure from Western partners or through elections, I think he will step down. Ultimately he did good as a war time leader but, his diplomacy leaves a lot to be desired. Someone else will need to be there for rebuilding and pushing integration into Western institutions. I'm sure Zelensky will have a comfortable retirement.
I mean, I'm not wrong tho? You are looking at NATO's use from the perspective of some scheming cabal of US foreign policy planners. The other members, many of whom were great powers or who have geopolitical aspirations, were held back by NATO after the fall of the USSR.
The US security umbrella allowed Europeans to focus less on defense and more on social services and economic integration... it also kept Europeans from competing with US interests abroad. Germany and France were actively courting Russia to create an independent European power block. Had this war not transpired, eventually, NATO's popularity would have diminished. Not overnight, but the writing was on the wall that NATO was an institution of the past. It wasn't that uncommon to see EU nationalists label it as something that divided Europeans against each other for the US. Obama ridiculed Mitt Romney back in 2008 for claiming that Russia was the #1 security threat - "the Cold War wants its foreign policy back". Trump being famously against NATO because he sees it as a subsidy to the prosperity of Europe and he wants it to be a pay to play system.
All Russia had to do was not lash out and focus on their own growth.
I'm not sure how to respond to this. Was it a Machiavellian scheme by the US to keep NATO alive to provoke Russia into self-destructing? Maybe.
It could also be that the US just saw use in NATO since uniting all of Europe under a US security umbrella would help limit any unrest so that we'd not get dragged into another European war. It also helped that so many of the previous Warsaw Pact members were eager to join.
I don't see the answer to this. You've explained why Russia was and is strategically vulnerable, but you don't answer my question of how Russia has not lost this war? My point was that for a chunk of Ukraine they have given NATO a new mission statement and have even had NATO expanded across their borders. This is coupled with the demographic and economic woes. The war wasn't worth it.
Russia has some amount of self-sufficiency and will probably never run out of arms. Even if Russia ran out of conventional arms, I don't think Ukraine has the ability to overrun the Russians. They are just too small. Ukraine can possibly exhaust the Russians and make their population fed up with the war once it affects them more directly.
My logic is based on Russian red lines continually being violated without much repercussion. Putin is not using nukes, likely because of immense pressure from China and India. Nobody wants to let the nuclear cat out of the bag and Putin cannot afford to alienate nations willing to trade with him. I think that his hands are tied unless there is something truly existential - like a NATO army marching on Moscow or credible proof of inbound WMDs.
There are outliers - South Korea and Ireland come to mind, but generally yes. The developed world is running on fumes or are losing out to other nations.
I have a friend in China who thinks that government will eventually tax people without children - make it more expensive to not have a child. I honestly don't think that'd work and I have no idea what will work.
I do subscribe to the idea that China will try to secure Taiwan and as much territory as it can hold while it still has momentum. The second half of the century will see a stagnant China fighting the effects of demographic decline and competition from India/Africa. Even with 700/800 million people, if the average age is in the 60s, how much vigor will be there in society?
I think lend-lease worked so well because neither the Germans nor Japanese were able to really interdict/interfere with it. Even as German U-boats sank merchant marine vessels, the US just built more. Neither nation had control over sea lanes and the US industry just overpowered them.
If China does a lend-lease for Russia and is engaged in hot war with the US, blockades will go into effect. Russia has resources but connections between China and Russia aren't enough. This is again due to their politicking.
It's ultimately hard to predict. I personally don't believe that China or Russia are coordinating that much together. I don't believe that they will stick their necks out for one another. As you said war makes strange bedfellows. If they do coordinate, the only thing we can do is prepare accordingly. I'd prefer my children and posterity to live in a world where individual rights are the norm over autocratic forms of government.
You're wrong. Check out for the eastern expansion of NATO. I've given you the time periods it was undertaken in during the Clinton & Bush presidencies. Where was the need for it if you claim the US's & NATO's intentions were benign i.e the objective being to function as a purely defensive set up .
Arguably this has much to do with both recent & late mediaeval history. The Poland Lithuanian Confederacy was the biggest empire in Europe after the Holy Roman Empire . They also ruled over the western part of Ukraine whereas the eastern parts later came under the rule of the Russian Empire. This aspect is still seen in the cultural & linguistic divisions in Ukraine till date manifesting itself into political divisions.
Both the Confederacy & the Russian Empire were at loggerheads fighting wars for supremacy in eastern Europe with the confederacy invading Moscow for a brief period. Unfortunately for the Polish people their eclipse coincided with the rise of the Russian Empire in the early 18th century.
For the next 3 centuries the Polish state was nearly annihilated with their territory being split between Russia & the various neighbouring kingdoms , later states till the end of the cold war.
The Poles haven't forgotten their history not remembered the right lessons. Post cold war they sought economic diplomatic & security union with the west as a counter to Russia for obvious reasons . This played right into the hands of those cold war warriors in Washington & London. The latter could exhibit sagacity by accomodating both Polish fears & Russian apprehensions by striking a fair balance.
Instead the US unfolded its plans to isolate Russia gradually. This is the Brzezinsky Doctrine which holds no compromise with Russia is possible. That he was of Polish origin & brought his personal prejudices to bear is no surprise. What's surprising is Kissinger wasn't exactly in favour of this doctrine or at any rate he had significant differences with it .
The US & its Trojan horse in Europe resorted to the old trope of using Russia & her possesion of N weapons to justify the continuing existence of NATO & expand its membership eastwards with Poland rallying the ex Communist Bloc there to the cause. The other European powers didn't mind as long as the US did the heavy lifting as far as their security was concerned & more or less toed the US line in foreign policy matters. This also meant they could dedicate their revenue exclusively for economic growth.
France was the only outlier in this regard before Brexit with the aim to develop EU as an independent pole away from post war Russia & the US by accomodating Russian concerns . They were often thwarted in economic policy matters by UK & isolated in NATO. The French sought an ally in Germany but nothing much came out of it. You know the rest.
What great power ambitions could European powers post WW-2 have ? The last such attempt to reclaim their pre war status as world powers was the Suez crisis where Eisenhower & Khrushchev teamed up to screw the Anglo French alliance. Post that both France & UK have yet to discover their balls when taking on Washington.
All European powers are middling powers in various stages of decline with France UK & Russia only considered important because of their possession of the veto , a permanent UNSC seat & of course the ultimate currency of power N weapons. I don't even see their economy as being significant in the long term Why ? One principle reason - irreversible demographic decline. There are plenty of other factors as well . You're seeing it unfolding before your very eyes but it'd be much much more glaring two decades from now.
I've answered the rest above.
They weren't seeking Russia to create an alternative power bloc as much as assuage Russian fears by formulating a mutually agreeable security framework into which economic & foreign policies would be dovetailed. It was effectively sabotaged by Washington with Warsaw & of course Perfidious Albion serving as Washington's wingmen.
I don't think you've understood the Russian psyche & paranoia. Let's leave it at that.
Yes it was with the reasoning provided above & in my previous posts.
Pls refer to the analogy of the mafia I've provided for NATO. You're repeating it in a different context using similar but distinct language. The conclusions are the same if you were to look at what you've penned carefully.
Let me put it in another way . With Putin it ends in a Battle of Berlin except Berlin didn't have N weapons then . Trust that clears things . With him gone , who knows ? Depends on how the Siloviki perceive the situation they find themselves in , when they find themselves in .
That's how great power rivalries end & new ones germinate out of the ashes of old ones.
How do you reckon what happened in Korea , Vietnam & in Afghanistan twice though in the second invasion & occupation of Afghanistan there was no great power rivalry at work.
There's no pressure without penalties. China & India aren't going to penalize Russia from using nukes though it'd greatly complicate matters for the former two & Russia would definitely end up as an international pariah as opposed to what the west thinks of Putin & Russia today.
There's still considerable support & goodwill for Russia in the rest of the world outside of Europe & N America. That's 7 out of 8 billion people who're either rooting for Russia (not because they like Russia or are beholden to it but that they hate the west more ) or are neutral at last count.
?
Both those countries you're mentioned have even more pathetic TFRs.
Sure , if the CCP lasts that long. Their only insurance against a counter revolution as the CCP puts it , is a growing economy. That's under threat now for a number of reasons. With a plunging economy , all bets are off.
The Lend Lease was merely used as a metaphor to highlight how two dissimilar & opposing political systems could sink their differences & work together in the face of an existential crises. There are plenty of other examples in history.
They share a vast land border not to mention tbe trans Siberian railway & goods trains originating in China criss crossing Kazakhstan & Russia before ending its journey in Germany.
As of now it should be very little & under the radar. As I mentioned before let the trade war start in right earnest which I expect it to in the next 2-3 years.
That's been the ardent wish of every human being since time immemorial. Besides the US has the added advantage of being without peers in its part of the world.
In the worst case scenario , it goes back to being an isolationist power. However its economy & rising socio cultural divide will drag it down.
There's this very popular movie now considered a classic from the 1970s famous for its dialogues - Sholay. The villain in that movie Gabbar Singh immortalized by the late actor Amjad Khan mouthed this piece of dialogue - Gabbar ko sirf ek hi aadami mar sakta hain , khud Gabbar.
I'm sure you'd decipher the meaning.
Video of strike at military unit in Pochep-2 of Bryansk region with reactive drone or possible a missile
t.me
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Part 9 of my Ukraine war blog.
This one is the longest and has the most detailed numbers for each sector of the front - I did this as I had not seen this analysis done anywhere else.
Read along with part 8, to understand casualties. Part 9 flows from that.
I analyse the opposing forces on each sector of the front, what their strategy has been so far, ongoing operations and what to expect.
Ukraine war part 9. Sector wise analysis.
This one is the longest and has the most detailed numbers for each sector of the front - I did this as I had not seen this analysis done anywhere else.
Read along with part 8, to understand casualties. Part 9 flows from that.
I analyse the opposing forces on each sector of the front, what their strategy has been so far, ongoing operations and what to expect.
Ukraine war part 9. Sector wise analysis.
North Korea ‘governor-in-waiting’ vows to stop Russian weapons supplies
Since his dramatic escape from North Korea, using crutches to propel himself 3,700 miles across rivers, mountains and dense jungle to safe refuge in Seoul, Ji Seong-ho has vowed to fight for his former compatriots who still live under Kim Jong-un’s cruel, authoritarian regime.
How Ukraine turned mobile phone microphones into an air defence network
After enduring wave after wave of cheap suicide drones bombarding its cities, Ukraine found a novel solution for detecting and tracking the low, slow uncrewed aerial vehicles: microphones that can identify the airborne threats based on their audio signature.
www.flightglobal.com