Ukraine - Russia Conflict

Update on operations in Ukraine 5 March D+9 12:45

1- General situation: general stalemate of Russian forces with the exception of the Eastern zone where the 20th A is advancing towards Kiev and the 1st ABG is suspending the investment of Kharkiv in favour of reconnaissance operations in force towards the centre (Poltava) and the South-East.

2- Air and sea: little change. Persistent fear of anti-aircraft defences (S300, MANPADS) which hindered air manoeuvres. Flying at very low altitude and/or at night with less efficiency.

3- New area, West: the western Ukrainian area (large marshes at the Belarusian border, few important axes during the Rasputa period) is not very favourable for a ground manoeuvre, but possibility of penetrating Jitomyr, west of Kiev.

4- It is possible that the large column on standby is in fact the 35th A (and not the 36th) until then in reserve in Belarus and that it is intended to manoeuvre, either towards Kiev, or towards the South in the direction of Vinnitsya, in order to cut the Ukraine in two.

5- Kiev: the 41st A still stopped at Chernihiv and the 36th A west of Kiev, but rapid advance of the 20th A to the east. The 20th A may reach the east of the capital in the coming days.

6- East: limited Russian advance into Kharkiv but peripheral operations of the 1st ABG towards Sloviansk in the south-east and Poltava in the south-west of Kharkiv. Poltava, a high point in Russian military history, victory of Peter the Great against the Swedish army of Charles XII, 1709
7- Southeast: major Russian effort and separatist militias against Mariupol. Violent fighting. The siege of Mariupol absorbs the forces of the 58th A and part of the 49th A from Donetsk.

8- Few forces available to advance north, but presence with limited forces near Zaporozhjia, with seizure of the nuclear power plant and thus control over 15% of Ukrainian electricity production.

9- South-West: new attack on Mykolayev (Ukr. naval forces HQ) from Kherson. The fight in the sector seems to be taken over by the 22nd Corps (CA) + naval brigade and 7th AAD and no longer the 58th A. The capture of Mykolayev essential for the attack on Odessa.

10- Notes Return to the phase of suppression of air defences in the early days of the war. Its incompleteness had serious consequences on the failure of the high-speed offensive of the ground forces.

11- The air raid on the airport of Gostomel (North Kiev), suffered heavy losses (two attack helicopters destroyed and especially one or two IL76 transport planes destroyed with undoubtedly heavy human losses).

12- Back to the problems of Russian organisation. Their origin may be the anarchic accumulation of different command structures after the succession of reforms: army and corps, autonomous brigades and divisions with regiments.

13- Often too many units to be commanded (far beyond the norm of 5) simultaneously by the army staffs, especially with reinforcements + liaison problems.

14- Death of several Russian generals reported, sign of the need (by order?) for commanders of large units to go directly to the closest unit to bypass a saturated chain of command and compensate for the lack of initiative of the units.
Seems to me that they've barely moved in the last 3 days, and if they're having logistical problem already when they're still so close to Russian/Belarussian/Crimean territory, imagine what will happen when they get further west. By comparison the Soviet invasion of Czechoslovakia in 1968 lasted about 24 hours.

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Seems to me that they've barely moved in the last 3 days, and if they're having logistical problem already when they're still so close to Russian/Belarussian/Crimean territory, imagine what will happen when they get further west. By comparison the Soviet invasion of Czechoslovakia in 1968 lasted about 24 hours.

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So you draw assumptions based on WW-2 or civil disturbances in some thinly populated E European country from 60 yrs back, on the progress the Ru Army is to have made in as many days & then you go on to declare the invasion is a failure / stalemated when most of the sane world don't even know the amount of territory Putin wants seized & by what time before he calls an end to the campaign.

Perhaps you've access to his plans. Do share it with us.
 
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You know, I think if NATO intervened in Ukraine we'd actually be doing Russia a favour by end their suffering and humiliation quickly.
Do let us know what's preventing NATO from entering the war? Or what's preventing it from establishing a No Fly Zone which the comedian has pleaded for ? While on topic your SecDef was bragging the Scots Guards kicked the arses of the Russian Cossacks in the Crimean war & they'd gladly do it again. Why don't you ask him to put his money where his mouth is?
 
Ruh-Roh!

Biden weighing sanctions on India over Russian military stockpiles​

The Biden administration is weighing whether to impose sanctions against India over its stockpile of and reliance on Russian military equipment as part of the wide-ranging consequences the West is seeking to impose on Moscow over its invasion of Ukraine.

Donald Lu, the assistant secretary of State for South Asian affairs, on Thursday told lawmakers in a hearing that the administration is weighing how threatening India's historically close military relationship with Russia is to U.S. security.

“It’s a question we’re looking at very closely, as the administration is looking at the broader question over whether to apply sanctions under CAATSA or to waive those sanctions,” Lu said.

The Countering American Adversaries Through Sanctions Act, passed in 2017 in the wake of the Kremlin’s interference in U.S. elections, includes the authority to sanction transactions with Russian defense or intelligence sectors.

The law includes waiver authority for the president that was used for Turkey, an ally in NATO, until December 2020 when the Trump administration imposed sanctions under the law for Ankara’s purchase of the Russian S400 missile defense system.

In 2016, India was named a “Major Defense Partner” with the U.S., a unique designation that serves to elevate defense trade and technology. Defense contracts between the U.S. and India are said to have amounted to $20 billion since 2008.

India is also a member of the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue with the U.S., Japan and Australia, a grouping that focuses on countering China’s ambitions in the Indo-Pacific.

President Biden held a video call with Quad leaders on Thursday, according to the White House, “to discuss the war against Ukraine and its implications for the Indo-Pacific.”

Lu told lawmakers that the administration is “in the process of trying to understand whether defense technology that we are sharing with India today can be adequately safeguarded given India’s historical relationship with Russia and its defense sales.”

“It is critical that with any partner, that the United States is able to assure itself that any defense technology we share is sufficiently protected,” he said.

Lu said the administration has been engaged in a “pitched battle” with Indian officials over the past couple of months leading up to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. President Biden, Secretary of State Antony Blinken and other senior officials in the State Department urged New Delhi to “to take a clearer position, a position opposed to Russia’s action.”

The secretary said India’s abstention at the United Nations and its commitment to provide Ukraine with humanitarian assistance are promising steps in a shift in its public position and that he expects an even greater shift in the aftermath of outrage at the death of an Indian student killed in Kharkiv, Ukraine's second-largest city, by Russian bombing in recent days.

“I have had several conversations with Indian officials in the last 24 hours,” Lu said. “What we can see, already, very quickly is that action has begun to turn public opinion in India against a country that they perceived as a partner, undeniably, that partner has killed a young person who was an innocent victim in Ukraine.”
 
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You ought to be telling us. It's been there for more than a week. Sitting ducks for Ukrainian AF given that RuAF hasn't sanitized the air space over Ukraine. Then there are those Turkish drones which have utterly destroyed almost the entire tank force & artillery of the RuA. Finally there are your Javelins & NLAWs. The very fact that the convoy exists is a miracle.

What could be wrong? 🤔
 
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Someone with military experience is gonna have to explain how you get supplies to the front of the convoy.

Are they going to have to abandon ship soon?

Bridges blown and Rasputitsa gets worse every day.
 
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As one expert commentator on a show on Al Jazeera put it , RuA tried to undertake Gulf War using troops that the Allies did in select small batches like they did Afghanistan. The mismatch is obvious.

Our desi experts on Twitter are of the view that Russia doesn't want to expose it's frontline assets in it's air force to NATO SIGINT & COMINT & are preserving their cutting troops partly for Phase -2 with Phase - 1 consisting of scouting by conscripts who for the most part are not properly trained , partly as a back up to NATO interference & partly to avoid heavy casualties.

The last part is now coming undone with casualties only beginning to mount as they will in the days to come.

Seems like convoys need
IED, SEAD bait in unmanned vehicle at front & rear .
Ruh-Roh!

Biden weighing sanctions on India over Russian military stockpiles​

The Biden administration is weighing whether to impose sanctions against India over its stockpile of and reliance on Russian military equipment as part of the wide-ranging consequences the West is seeking to impose on Moscow over its invasion of Ukraine.

Donald Lu, the assistant secretary of State for South Asian affairs, on Thursday told lawmakers in a hearing that the administration is weighing how threatening India's historically close military relationship with Russia is to U.S. security.

“It’s a question we’re looking at very closely, as the administration is looking at the broader question over whether to apply sanctions under CAATSA or to waive those sanctions,” Lu said.

The Countering American Adversaries Through Sanctions Act, passed in 2017 in the wake of the Kremlin’s interference in U.S. elections, includes the authority to sanction transactions with Russian defense or intelligence sectors.

The law includes waiver authority for the president that was used for Turkey, an ally in NATO, until December 2020 when the Trump administration imposed sanctions under the law for Ankara’s purchase of the Russian S400 missile defense system.

In 2016, India was named a “Major Defense Partner” with the U.S., a unique designation that serves to elevate defense trade and technology. Defense contracts between the U.S. and India are said to have amounted to $20 billion since 2008.

India is also a member of the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue with the U.S., Japan and Australia, a grouping that focuses on countering China’s ambitions in the Indo-Pacific.

President Biden held a video call with Quad leaders on Thursday, according to the White House, “to discuss the war against Ukraine and its implications for the Indo-Pacific.”

Lu told lawmakers that the administration is “in the process of trying to understand whether defense technology that we are sharing with India today can be adequately safeguarded given India’s historical relationship with Russia and its defense sales.”

“It is critical that with any partner, that the United States is able to assure itself that any defense technology we share is sufficiently protected,” he said.

Lu said the administration has been engaged in a “pitched battle” with Indian officials over the past couple of months leading up to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. President Biden, Secretary of State Antony Blinken and other senior officials in the State Department urged New Delhi to “to take a clearer position, a position opposed to Russia’s action.”

The secretary said India’s abstention at the United Nations and its commitment to provide Ukraine with humanitarian assistance are promising steps in a shift in its public position and that he expects an even greater shift in the aftermath of outrage at the death of an Indian student killed in Kharkiv, Ukraine's second-largest city, by Russian bombing in recent days.

“I have had several conversations with Indian officials in the last 24 hours,” Lu said. “What we can see, already, very quickly is that action has begun to turn public opinion in India against a country that they perceived as a partner, undeniably, that partner has killed a young person who was an innocent victim in Ukraine.”

India is already purchasing weapons from rest of the world.. More form USA off late.

In Biden sanctions India now, u can bet he is already compromised. Screwing up relationships. For what?
 
India is already purchasing weapons from rest of the world.. More form USA off late.

In Biden sanctions India now, u can bet he is already compromised. Screwing up relationships. For what?
The guy is senile this comes from the folks pulling his strings. As for what... Who knows how the democratic party and their globalist leaders think.
 
So I guess India will abstain when the world condemns Russia if the nuke plant goes Chernobyl? Putin is lucky to have an ally like India. For India's sake when Pakistan and China move on them India better hope the world doesn't abstain either.
Errr... Last time when US and UK moved on for a kill on India, Russia intervened. UK and US will not even intervene to save their mother from war. Rest of the world apart from Russia ... well, lets say they do not matter much.
Ruh-Roh!

Biden weighing sanctions on India over Russian military stockpiles​

The Biden administration is weighing whether to impose sanctions against India over its stockpile of and reliance on Russian military equipment as part of the wide-ranging consequences the West is seeking to impose on Moscow over its invasion of Ukraine.

Donald Lu, the assistant secretary of State for South Asian affairs, on Thursday told lawmakers in a hearing that the administration is weighing how threatening India's historically close military relationship with Russia is to U.S. security.

“It’s a question we’re looking at very closely, as the administration is looking at the broader question over whether to apply sanctions under CAATSA or to waive those sanctions,” Lu said.

The Countering American Adversaries Through Sanctions Act, passed in 2017 in the wake of the Kremlin’s interference in U.S. elections, includes the authority to sanction transactions with Russian defense or intelligence sectors.

The law includes waiver authority for the president that was used for Turkey, an ally in NATO, until December 2020 when the Trump administration imposed sanctions under the law for Ankara’s purchase of the Russian S400 missile defense system.

In 2016, India was named a “Major Defense Partner” with the U.S., a unique designation that serves to elevate defense trade and technology. Defense contracts between the U.S. and India are said to have amounted to $20 billion since 2008.

India is also a member of the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue with the U.S., Japan and Australia, a grouping that focuses on countering China’s ambitions in the Indo-Pacific.

President Biden held a video call with Quad leaders on Thursday, according to the White House, “to discuss the war against Ukraine and its implications for the Indo-Pacific.”

Lu told lawmakers that the administration is “in the process of trying to understand whether defense technology that we are sharing with India today can be adequately safeguarded given India’s historical relationship with Russia and its defense sales.”

“It is critical that with any partner, that the United States is able to assure itself that any defense technology we share is sufficiently protected,” he said.

Lu said the administration has been engaged in a “pitched battle” with Indian officials over the past couple of months leading up to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. President Biden, Secretary of State Antony Blinken and other senior officials in the State Department urged New Delhi to “to take a clearer position, a position opposed to Russia’s action.”

The secretary said India’s abstention at the United Nations and its commitment to provide Ukraine with humanitarian assistance are promising steps in a shift in its public position and that he expects an even greater shift in the aftermath of outrage at the death of an Indian student killed in Kharkiv, Ukraine's second-largest city, by Russian bombing in recent days.

“I have had several conversations with Indian officials in the last 24 hours,” Lu said. “What we can see, already, very quickly is that action has begun to turn public opinion in India against a country that they perceived as a partner, undeniably, that partner has killed a young person who was an innocent victim in Ukraine.”
*Yawn?* 50th time...
 
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The reason the Russian column got to be so long was due to Russian Army officers “fulfilling the plan”.

They might be shot by the chain of command for disobeying orders to advance into the traffic jam, but won’t be if they obey orders to fulfill the plan.
 
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Seems like convoys need
IED, SEAD bait in unmanned vehicle at front & rear .


India is already purchasing weapons from rest of the world.. More form USA off late.

In Biden sanctions India now, u can bet he is already compromised. Screwing up relationships. For what?
We should welcome the so called sanctions, US has been simply harassing & annoying India by supporting those islamic fundamentalist thugs & rogues in name of human rights & democracy. Quad is a non-starter which exists only on paper. Finally we can stop buying US equipment and also ask them to take a hike openly.

Hard fact is that US will do the same thing what it is doing to ukraine to India as well if china attacks. So why bother about their support?
Atleast we wont get Ukrained!