Ukraine - Russia Conflict
- Thread starter randomradio
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We cannot view Russia in isolation - especially when its a country heavily dependent on commodity exports. Remember, it was commodity prices that finally broke up the USSR.
Russia would never even have tried to start a major war if it wasn't for the huge reserves they built up over the last 30 years selling oil & gas to Europe. That was the money that funded the upkeep of Russia's MIC in the difficult post-Soviet years.
But the US has worked against Indian interests, while the Russians have not. As I said before, India is a player in the CAR because of Russia.
Russia provides India with a further conduit to the Taliban. This was made evident by Indian National Security Adviser Ajit Doval’s visit to Moscow in February where he also met President Vladimir Putin. An NSA meeting the Russian leader is not normal protocol, particularly in the current political climate. Yet Russia is arguably the most vocal proponent for the Taliban in the international arena, much more than China and Iran. Further engagements, such as Indian officials meeting the Taliban interim-government, specifically the parts run by the Haqqani Network, the group blamed for the attack on India’s embassy in Kabul in 2008, also purportedly had been facilitated by Russian assistance.
India still needs to work with Russia on Afghanistan | Lowy Institute
Proximity changes the priorities for India in a conflict on the doorstep.www.lowyinstitute.org
India and Russia have the same agenda in Afghanistan, as it has always been ever since the Taliban came to power.
When the US finally left, we were forced to vacate our embassy, consulates & diplomatic presence.
Russians, Chinese, Pakistanis were free to stay. You need to read the writing on the wall at some point.
No permanent friends or enemies in international relations.
Act East preceded QUAD 2.0, now we are realigning several policies to fit within the QUAD framework.
For example during COVID, we distributed the India-made vaccines in SEA under the QUAD umbrella, not bilaterally.
So how will we magically spin up multiple production lines once conflict with China actually starts? How will we work out the QA/QC kinks in time? Or should we rely on the OFB (or its successor DPSUs) to deliver things without their workers taking the opportunity to start a strike?
If GOI would encourage Private industry by placing sizeable orders, we wouldn't need to look toward exports. But either because they lack the funds or because they don't want Private sector to compete with their beloved DPSU vote bank, GOI isn't going to do that anytime soon.
Just saying, if Russia was in this position, they'd take the orders without even blinking.
Oh we are more than scratching it. We implemented Cooperative Engagement Capability on our surface combatants before Russia did. We even conducted an actual live direct-ascent ASAT test against a real satellite before the Russians could (they did tests before, but only point-in-space ones).
We implemented national security programs the Russians wish they had, like UPI.
Sure Russia is building upon a much greater base (70 years of Soviet R&D), but our problem is simply money. With the growing economy + choice inputs from likes of France (single-hull nuclear subs) and US (aero engines) we can realistically surpass the technology level of the Russians within the next ~15 years.
Like I said, long-term outlooks do not exist in a vacuum, they are always influenced by how short & medium term events shape up.
We don't read much about this now but before 1900, the Europeans still had 'long-term' plans of using the wealth accrued from Old World colonies to build up themselves and take back the Americas from secessionists i.e. US, Mexico etc.
But then over the next half century the World Wars happened and suddenly the Europeans found themselves playing the subservient second fiddle to their new overlords, the US.
So yeah, Russia did view China as a long-term threat - especially since their short war in the late 60s. But if the short & medium-term events don't shape up the way they imagined (like US going back on its promise to stop NATO expansion etc.), then eventually those long-term plans will need to be reshaped/junked outright in view of the new realities.
I'll just say that Russia's absolute priority is their European heartland, west of the Urals.
No progress in over half a decade - it's stalled.
Why do we need a global system?
NaVIC as it exists is sufficient for our current threat perception. Expansion of the coverage area (as per future requirements) does not require any new technology input, we already indigenized the atomic clocks even. It just needs further capital infusion.
There is a key difference though - we are not competing with US or Russia. We don't have to worry about Yasens or Virginias.
We have to worry about the likes of Shang...which I'm willing to bet is noisier than even the Charlie-class we retired back in 1991.
Is the technology we already acquired world-beating? Not by a long shot, but do we need world-beating tech to take on the Chinese subsurface fleet?
Not really...especially not with advanced MPAs, long-range ASW fires (SMART) & SOSUS networks on our side.
Being an export-dependent economy's sole big buyer gives them no power?
I think you're looking at it too much from perspective of the past - I'm trying to see what the future holds.
Because China & India stepped up filling the gap. And now they are about to lose half of that.
And the situation is getting worse even without considering loss of Indian customer: the Russians' planned budget deficit for the whole year has already been crossed within 3 months.
Russia’s Budget Deficit Surpasses 2023 Target in January-April - The Moscow Times
Russia’s budget deficit has surpassed the government’s entire 2023 target in the first four months of the year as wartime spending and falling energy revenues continued to cut into the state budget.
They can't - even Iran still trades with Russia/China and the West can't stop that. Nobody can make India a bigger pariah than Iran...more importantly, our economy is not based around trade or export. We are driven primarily by domestic consumption so even becoming a pariah isn't going to effect us as much as it would effect countries like Russia, China or GCC.
Because they need to sell oil to someone or their economic model cannot survive.
Not unless you start filling your Forex coffers with Yuan.
Either way, we are never going to buy Russian crude at market prices under normal circumstances. We only started buying after the war started because the EU was willing to buy it off us, and we had the opportunity to buy for cheap in Rupees, refine the oil & sell for Dollars/Euros. It made perfect business sense.
But now that Russia has said it cannot accept any more Rupees, why would we keep buying? The discount is nice, but it's of no use because they won't accept payment in Rupees, we don't want to pay in Yuans and we can't pay in USD/EUR because of sanctions.
As of normal circumstances (like ~5/10 years from now if world is back to normal) it doesn't make any sense to ship oil all the way from Russia when we have the MidEast right next door. It's the reason our Russian oil imports were always miniscule/non-factor before the war started.
What we faced so far cannot be always compared to what we might face in future. We were coming from a period of consolidation of the new Republic, from abject poverty & socialism, beset by enemies on all sides.
We simply never had the mindset of a Great Power that looks at the whole map. We couldn't afford to have one.
But in the medium-term, do you not foresee a potential Indian expeditionary role in the Middle East? A third of the UAE's population are Indian expats, most of our energy comes from ME and it's a place always ripe for conflict. Will we, as the world's third-largest economy by that time and a major military power, sit by and watch as our energy security is destroyed?
The mindset we will have when we fully fill the shoes of a Great Power will be very different from what we have now.
Exactly. The fact that Pakistan sold weapons to Ukraine has no bearing on Russia's greater long-term outlook - if they can gain Pakistan as an ally in the future, they are willing to overlook past transgressions. Not because they are forgiving of heart, but because they cannot afford to hold grudges.
So, when & if the time comes for Russia's long-term threat perception vis-a-vis China were to be realized, they will come crawling back into India's camp. Regardless of what we did in the meantime. It's how geopolitics always work and Russia knows this very well.
They didn't stop anything - supply of RD93s continues and the Mi-35 deal was fairly recent.
Regardless, that is Pakistan. What about China? Russians know Chinese pose a threat to India and yet continue to sell top-of-the-line gear like S400 and Su-35. They don't even complain when China openly violates their IPRs and produces copies, yet when our Ordnance Factory Trichy makes an AK copy, they raise a hue & cry and demand deals like AK203 as payment for our wrongdoings?
The short answer is, Russia doesn't give a damn about India's threat perceptions - it does what it wants to, in pursuit of it's greater global aims. As any superpower (or wannabe superpower) does.
In fact I'd prefer it if that happens in the future. A Pakistan alienated by the West and firmly in Russian/Chinese orbit is preferable to one that has a flexible relationship with all sides. I'd rather have the Pakistanis flying J-10s or MiGs instead of F-16V Block-70.
Who else can lap up such volumns? US is self-sufficient. EU, China, Japan & India are the only large consumers that import energy.
And the MidEast exists as a sanctions-free route to import with USD without any headaches. Who would bother with Russia besides China?
If that was the case the Russians wouldn't be complaining about $150 billion worth of accrued Rupees. India typically attracts that much as FDI in just 2 years. The Russians don't have the appetite for any more Rupees, for reasons best known to them. That's the problem.
Ask them. Why won't they accept any more Rupees?
India has enough investment potential for about a $1 trillion equivalent over the next decade alone, if not more. Why do the Russians not want to be a part of that?
At some point you have to see the writing on the wall, instead of just seeing Russia through the rose-tinted glasses of the 70s.
The proposal to sell is in an effort to spin up our local industries by utilizing external financing, in view of securing our supply chains in the event of a war with China. That's perfectly in our interests - the purpose of our sales would not be to influence the outcome of the war in Ukraine, we don't care one way or the other how that goes.
Neutrality doesn't mean pacifism or the refusal to industrialize for purposes of national defence.
I think you're reading too much into this. We are talking of selling ammo & munitions...not nuclear weapons. Russia already supplied brand-new Kornet-E ATGMs to Pakistan and made a quick buck at our expense. What is so unacceptable or appalling if we supply some old stocks of MILAN-2T to Ukraine and do the same?
Again, like I said you are drawing conclusions based on the past, I'm doing so based on the way things are shaping up now - looking to the future.
Things change.
Lol! 150 billion figure is bullshit.
Do you have any source?
It might be some where around 15 billion dollars....
You're right, my mistake.
150 billion was the total foreign assets built up, not just Rupees.
However, that strengthens my argument further, as Russia shouldn't have any difficulty in investing smaller amounts like $15-20 billion into India, but strangely they don't want to.
The Russian govt is cash rich, and that gives them an advantage for a very long time. They are not like the USSR when it comes to finances.
We left on our own. The Taliban wanted us to stay.
That's the reason why India and Russia will always choose each other.
That's just a perception pushed by Western media. We are doing our own thing.
The only thing we have done under QUAD is naval exercises with the partners. We do not engage with SEA via QUAD.
We don't need to sell to Ukraine for that. The IA is enough.
Sure, we are ahead in some things via Western support, but that's not exotic tech. The Russians are still beginning their modernisation in some areas, and in some they haven't even started. But with the exotic stuff, they are world leaders.
Developing CEC with modern technologies available today is a 5-year effort, but exotic stuff takes anywhere between 15 and 30.
The US is willing to lease/sell bombers to India because Russia is willing to do the same. How long would India take to make a supersonic bomber? I'd say 30 years minimum, followed by an Mk2 to actually fix all the problems.
China wants Vladivostok. When Russian went to war with Ukraine, China tested Russian defences in Harbin. The Russians were apparenly very pissed by that.
China wants to take over Mongolia as well, another point of contention with Russia. And the Chinese also want Tajikistan's Palmyra mountain ranges.
Er... No. It never stalled, all the stakeholders are involved in developing technologies before the official start of the program.
We have global interests now. Which is why ISRO's developing one. It's not just for military reasons, we need it for civilian use, and we need the tech to spread across many other countries in order to increase their reliance on us. We want a car in both Africa and S America using our own system.
Navic isn't yet sufficient for military use today. More satellites are necessary.
We need access to exotic tech today so we can be on par in 20 years. Even if we sign a contract today, it's gonna take 10 years to get it, and then 10 more years to learn from it and incorporate it into our own designs and 10 more years to fix it.
Our longterm rivals aren't the Chinese alone.
It doesn't work that way. It doesn't matter if it's the past or present, some things never change, and one of that's consumption.
Consumers need to constantly consume, but suppliers don't have to constantly supply. That's why energy suppliers hold the leverage. They can shut off the taps for much longer than you can stay functioning without supply. It's why consumers build large reserves, but those reserves are only meant to last a few months. A supply shock running longer than that would actually result in a war.
Because China & India stepped up filling the gap. And now they are about to lose half of that.
And the situation is getting worse even without considering loss of Indian customer: the Russians' planned budget deficit for the whole year has already been crossed within 3 months.
Russia’s Budget Deficit Surpasses 2023 Target in January-April - The Moscow Times
Russia’s budget deficit has surpassed the government’s entire 2023 target in the first four months of the year as wartime spending and falling energy revenues continued to cut into the state budget.www.themoscowtimes.com
It's difficult to talk about the current economic climate of Russia with the little information that we have.
As a major energy and resources importer, we can't survive supply shocks. And we are heavily dependent on forex for that.
Only Russia is our main guaranteed supplier in such a time, hence our very high dependency on them.
A supplier can stop supplying for much longer than a consumer can bear with.
Temporary problem lasting a few years at worst. We will make our economy important enough to import from over the years.
We have diversified away from the ME because they have been working against Indian interests. It's why the US has also become a major exporter to India. You are doing everything you can to make us more dependent on both current and future rivals/enemies when we have a perfectly good friend who will not obstruct us in any way.
Apart from the fact that our long term aim is to reduce energy reliance on the ME, in case our interests are threatened we will naturally act on it. But, with the exception of protecting our citizens, we won't do things the way the West did because we know it doesn't work.
In 10, 20, 30 years, most of the geopolitical landscape will change. Most countries will be rich. We won't be able to attack them out of the blue.
We don't go around taking advantage of others piecemeal like that. We go big, like our oil imports from Russia, or we go home. We only play on the big boy's table and it's something the US has also started learning to do, after gloriously screwing up of course. And we learnt from their mistakes.
We have even greater defence relations with Russia's biggest enemies. Russia sold Pak Mi-35 after the Mi-28 lost to the Apache in India. You think us buying 200 Rafales is a good thing for Russia? So how can we complain about Russia selling to the Chinese, especially when the deals were signed long before China became enemies with India?
Those little deals the Russians have with Pak and China don't affect relations with India. Russia is not India's security guarantor.
You and I would prefer that, the Pakistanis don't.
Imran Khan Niazi was ousted because he was getting pulled into the Chinese orbit at the expense of relations with the US. It's why when Niazi started singing Russia's praises, Bajwa quickly contradicted him and the PA decided to remove him.
Far too much PA and political wealth has been stored away in the West.
There will be buyers because the supply is controlled. Everybody wants refined petroleum and the supply comes in slowly.
That number is fake. It's just a forecast for the future, when trade volumes pick up. The actual number is much smaller.
The yearly trade volume today is $45B, deficit is $34B, and not all of that is in rupees. A 2-way investment plan is being worked out, so that's naturally gonna take time. For now, the Russians are investing in govt bonds.
Cost-benefit, it's of no benefit to us. And selling small arms is of no benefit to our supply chains with China.
If we built and sold hundreds of Kestrels, okay. But just re-exporting Milans does nothing.
Exactly, things change. But what's not changed over the many decades is India's relations with Russia.
If we are looking to the future, we must not upset this extremely stable applecart over the promises of a new applecart that may or may not provide apples and can be taken away at anytime on a whim.
UNSC vote, military dependency for 10-30 years, access to exotic tech like advanced materials, SSNs and strategic bombers, the biggest energy and resource supplier, significant amounts of political, economic and diplomatic commonality versus, what, "times are changing" and they sold Kornets to Pakistan?
You've somehow fallen victim to Western narrative. You have a skewed view of Russia for some reason. You have made QUAD bigger than it is, you have forgotten that Russia-India have had the same view over the ME, Afghanistan and CAR for the last 30+ years, your expectations out of the West are over and above what's happening in reality, and so on.
You've listened to someone or read something that's convinced you that falling in line with the West is the best approach, which is going completely against Indian interests. And you can see that with actions the govt is taking, they are completely opposite to what you are proposing.
So let me just tell ya what we need. Within the next 20 years, we need the ability to match the US in military, political and economic spheres. It's fine if we are as much as a third to half as big economically. But in military and political spheres we need to be considered near-peer at the very minimum, if not a peer. And that's not gonna happen if we make enemies for no reason. China isn't our only long term threat.
Jeez, you need to visit the river near me some day. Beach my ar5e.
I don't know how to apply for a visa to La La Land.