Wagner Group Mutiny Against Russia | Mercenaries moving across Lipetsk towards Moscow - Live Updates
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So essentially the earnings include the money the government has paid them?This is why actual federal revenue from oil & gas has gone down 64%.
Those subsidies fund the rest of their non-oil economy worth $1.3T.
The net figure is down 64% as per my link.
Because the people are too poor to afford the real price, so the Russian government pays the oil companies money to pay back to the government. Joke economy.
This type of analysis is pointless. Nobody can predict the market. And we still don't know what the Russians are gonna do about excess production.
Wow, <$10k per capita. You mean they allow people to live in a managed economy that's gone to the dogs. Giving the oil companies money and counting it as profits.
Given the present situation, they should probably drink it and go for a smoke.
The deficit for 2023 Q1 was 2% of a full year's GDP with 3 Qs left to go. The reserves are running out and reality is about to kick in.
The deficit for 2023 Q1 was 2% of a full year's GDP with 3 Qs left to go. The reserves are running out and reality is about to kick in.
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In most countries, well above 70 or even 80% spending happens in the first 6 months, and then it peters out. They use short term loans to pay for it. Then they balance the budget in the next 6 months.
The Russians are spending not just on the current war, but also preparing for future wars.
Anyway, the deficit is nothing to the Russians.
The deficit was therefore £137 billion, equivalent to 5.4% of GDP. Borrowing of £137 billion is equivalent to around £2,045 per head of the UK’s population.
Fiscal Data Explains the National Deficit
Check out @FiscalService Fiscal Data’s new national deficit page! #NationalDeficit
fiscaldata.treasury.gov
Compared to the national deficit of $426 billion for the same period last year (Oct 2021 - May 2022), our national deficit has increased by $739 billion.
United States Federal Government Budget
The United States recorded a Government Budget deficit equal to 6.30 percent of the country's Gross Domestic Product in 2023. This page provides - United States Government Budget - actual values, historical data, forecast, chart, statistics, economic calendar and news.
tradingeconomics.com
India's fiscal deficit for FY23 narrows to 6.4% of GDP, meets govt target - CNBC TV18
The government has met its fiscal deficit target of 6.4 percent of GDP for FY23, data released by the Controller General of Accounts showed on Wednesday.
So 2% is something they can afford quite easily. It's peanuts compared to the growth in govt spending. They can raise debt even more this year. Look up their public debt to gdp and compare that with the UK's.
The Russian deficit rose to almost 3% of GDP by the end of April 2023.
Russia’s Budget Deficit Surpasses 2023 Target in January-April - The Moscow Times
Russia’s budget deficit has surpassed the government’s entire 2023 target in the first four months of the year as wartime spending and falling energy revenues continued to cut into the state budget.
This with very high interest rates too (7.5%). Ruble is devaluing and deficit is rising.
The Russian deficit rose to almost 3% of GDP by the end of April 2023.
Russia’s Budget Deficit Surpasses 2023 Target in January-April - The Moscow Times
Russia’s budget deficit has surpassed the government’s entire 2023 target in the first four months of the year as wartime spending and falling energy revenues continued to cut into the state budget.www.themoscowtimes.com
This with very high interest rates too (7.5%). Ruble is devaluing and deficit is rising.
They can go 10 or even 15%, no issues.
As of now, a few things about Russia's budget and finances:
www.osw.waw.pl
So, the revenue figures for 2023 and 2024 have been calculated by assuming oil prices at $75 per barrel. And this is what Russia's central bank has to say about oil prices:
www.reuters.com
And this is from Bloomberg's report about the current price of Russian oil in the market:
Also from the Reuters report is this:
And another Reuters article from June 5 has this to say about the standalone May revenue data:
So, oil revenues (both y-o-y and m-o-m) are indeed down sharply. Given the Russian central bank's forecasts (and the actual prices at which Russian oil is selling), it probably isn't outlandish to expect Russia to miss its revenue expectations by a wide margin, so it doesn't hurt to wait and watch what happens.
Russia’s ‘war’ budget for 2023–2025
On 5 December, Vladimir Putin signed the 2023 budget law which also specifies the general parameters of the budgets for 2024–5. The document assumes that the average price of Urals oil in 2023 will be US$75 per barrel, that inflation will reach 5% by the end of the year, and GDP will fall by...
So, the revenue figures for 2023 and 2024 have been calculated by assuming oil prices at $75 per barrel. And this is what Russia's central bank has to say about oil prices:
Central bank sees Russian oil price averaging above $55/bbl in 2023-2025
The Russian central bank forecast on Thursday that the price of the country's flagship Urals oil blend will average $55 per barrel in 2023-2025, and the average price of Russian oil overall will be slightly higher than that due to more expensive grades.
And this is from Bloomberg's report about the current price of Russian oil in the market:
Although it also notes the following:
Also from the Reuters report is this:
And another Reuters article from June 5 has this to say about the standalone May revenue data:
So, oil revenues (both y-o-y and m-o-m) are indeed down sharply. Given the Russian central bank's forecasts (and the actual prices at which Russian oil is selling), it probably isn't outlandish to expect Russia to miss its revenue expectations by a wide margin, so it doesn't hurt to wait and watch what happens.
I think you'll find the issue is how much interest they have to pay on their debt, which is also increasing as a result of the deficit.