Indian Air Force : Updates & Discussions

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randomradio said:
Yes, so the 2.2:1 ratio meets the requirements. Anyway it refers to pilots alone, not additional crew not involved in flying.
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https://****/pilot-shortage-in-indian-air-force-a-growing-concern/

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Until 2021, India still has a huge gap of 596 pilots, which has widened over the past few years. Have no illusions about how perfect the IAF is, don't kid yourself
Only a fool would think that a two-seater plane has only one pilot. Like a commercial airliner, the captain is the pilot and the copilot is still the pilot
 
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LX1111 said:

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Until 2021, India still has a huge gap of 596 pilots, which has widened over the past few years. Have no illusions about how perfect the IAF is, don't kid yourself
Only a fool would think that a two-seater plane has only one pilot. Like a commercial airliner, the captain is the pilot and the copilot is still the pilot
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That shortage is currently irrelevant, it's due to lack of fighters.

And I don't know why you think I said two-seater doesn't have two pilots when the ratio is over 2.2. That's 2+ pilots per plane.
 
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Fatalis said:
What extra ordinary will this committee find? They can't make jets any faster so only option left is to buy from foreign country. They want bang for buck but the requirement is too big. They also want Fifth Gen which is not even available as an option to be purchased.
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But as a stop gap we should buy at least 2 squadrons of SU 57 because China has developed 300 J 20 and Pakistan is going to get 2 squadrons of J 35 and AMCA is not coming before 2030
 
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sahil singh said:
But as a stop gap we should buy at least 2 squadrons of SU 57 because China has developed 300 J 20 and Pakistan is going to get 2 squadrons of J 35 and AMCA is not coming before 2030
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Su-57 is our ONLY 5th gen option. IAF chucked it in the first place because of MRFA/Rafale. But now we have only a handful of Rafale while our prime enemy is on our throat with hoardes of 5th gen fighters.

So we'll need to buy the same fighter which we chucked years ago. As I always say, dropping out of FGFA and not buying 120 Rafales in one go wasn't just a mistake but a blunder. Nothing can substitute the aforementioned two fighters for us. No plan B.
 
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Rajput Lion said:
So we'll need to buy the same fighter which we chucked years ago.
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And along the way recover/ adjust our $400m investment in the FGFA prog. Although, buying both the Rafale and Su-57 in numbers will be too expensive. (If a compromise is made, it could impact LCA Mk2 or AMCA)

Our choices will depend to a large extent on how these 2 ADA programs shape up in the next 3-5 years.
 
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sahil singh said:
We are literally stuck, we don't have much choice. We can't buy Rafale because the order book is full, if we buy SU 57 as a stop gap we can create a deterrence among our enemies
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SU57 is lot cheaper than Rafale, means its definitely an inferior jet than a fourth gen aircraft from Europe. Why would some one purchase such stupid aircraft, if Rafale order book is full go for F15 EX of EFT, not sh!t fro US.
Rajput Lion said:
Su-57 is our ONLY 5th gen option.
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Its not a fifth gen aircraft, period. No one can produce a fifth gen aircraft( that too aheavy class fighter) at the price of LCA.
 
Rajput Lion said:
Su-57 is our ONLY 5th gen option. IAF chucked it in the first place because of MRFA/Rafale. But now we have only a handful of Rafale while our prime enemy is on our throat with hoardes of 5th gen fighters.

So we'll need to buy the same fighter which we chucked years ago. As I always say, dropping out of FGFA and not buying 120 Rafales in one go wasn't just a mistake but a blunder. Nothing can substitute the aforementioned two fighters for us. No plan B.
Click to expand...
What's fifth gen in Su-57? Even Chinese produce much capable Flankers and Fifth gen. The returns from exposed engine blades will be higher than the absence of internal bay on Rafale. Does it even have proper missiles to fire from its internal bay?
 
I wonder when will we stop knee jerk reactions to some obscure post or tweet or article somewhere coming up with news good bad or ugly especially if one has been on such fora as this one or any other for a decent amount of time.

One defence channel comes up with a tweet that GE will be further delaying the deliveries of the TF & the breast beating begins in right earnest. Why can't we wait for additional confirmation before getting into mourning ?

For starters how effective would an LCA be in our upcoming war against China is the first question we ought to engage with since depletion or addition in squadron numbers is an ongoing phenomenon much like the PN up until the last decade resembled a para militia if it were under our flag ( I wouldn't even equate it to the ICG ) .

However with the kind of acquisitions they're making they'd be a different beast by next decade . Having said that , unlike the past we're not going up against Paxtan with whom we normally compared our preparedness nor are we likely to but we're up against China who are benchmarking themselves against the US & that's a different beast altogether.

I'm definitely not downplaying concerns regarding the IAF strength as it's fallen so far in terms of numbers that long time watchers not given to knee jerk reactions are terming it the weakest it's ever been since the 1962 war & that in itself tells you a tale of its own as defence expenditure was the last on the priority list of chacha.

Frankly I don't see the Jaguars & the LCA play much of a role in our upcoming war against China for the simple reason it lacks endurance. We can deploy it for BARCAP but against an entire fleet of what the PLAAF can throw against us with the J-20s as the tip of the spear , that too coming at us in numbers only they & the USAF can muster , how effective would it be ? I'm not entirely convinced the LCA has a role to play against China & I'm willing to consider reasoned opinions against mine.

I foresee the LCA & the Jaguars play a role more on our western front to deter Paxtan from getting any ideas , though having said that I really don't see any role of Paxtan for the simple reason I don't see this as a two front scenario for a) Paxtan isn't in any position to prosecute a two front war , b.) In case it gets ideas , the US will weigh in to deter it & given the leverage the US can exercise over Paxtan given its economic plight I doubt Paxtan can resist US pressure , c.) In case of the worst case scenario if we indeed do have a two front scenario , we'd go nuclear & what's more Fauji Foundation is aware of it .

That leaves us with the rest of the IAF. Since we're resolved the MKI in its present form is unable to go up against the PLAAF what exactly do we have that can deter the latter from having the run of our air space since we don't have the Rafales in numbers & our ADS can only have that much of a deterrent effect on the PLAAF. Our MiG-29s & Mirage 2000s will play more of a supporting role but if the bulk of our AF comprises of the MKI which in itself isn't able to shoulder the burden in the state it is in we're staring down the barrel. What's more the kind of schedule that's been released for the Super Sukhoi upgrade makes me want to hold my head in my hands.

So what are the quick fix alternatives assuming there is something such as a quick fix alternative ? Rafales are ruled out for this decade for even if we sign a deal tomorrow with the kind of order book Dassault has & the delay in supply chain issues plaguing the entire western aerospace ecosystem whatever we get will be next decade unless you subscribe to the RST school of thought whose wisdom always stems from a mix of 20/20 hindsight & faction which entails we need the Rafales come what may even if we get them in the 2040s gracing Republic Day Parades presumably or whatever flimsy logic he comes up with.

We won't go in for the Gripens not that they can solve the problem & getting the Eurofighters will create its own set of problems not that either can be got quickly for obvious reasons. That leaves us solely with the last alternative - the Russkies & the Su-57. Doesn't harm us to look into it closely to see if it can really go heads on against the J-20 & the rest of the PLAAF .

Having said that , the Su-57s make sense only if we get them in the configuration the VKS will be getting it in for a few reasons - a.) We can't be sure the export version is really a match for the J-20s , b.) We don't have the time to do an MKI & all the paraphernalia that goes with it as much as the IAF would love it c.) I'm not really sure with the kind of leverage the Chinese exercise over the Russians whether we'd be able to pull it off ( get the Russians to sell us what they have instead of the downgraded export version ) .

I expect that's what the newly formed committee to look into the operational effectiveness of the IAF is all about. Coupled with the repeated exhortations of the Parliamentary Standing Committee on defence has had to say on our air preparedness over the years, this could well be the fig leaf Leaderji is looking out for to pull off the veritable rabbit from his hat. I can't phrase it any better.

Assuming the Su-57s meet our expectations & the Russians agree to part with their crown jewels as opposed to the export version ( assuming that's not up to scratch when compared to the J-20s ) , we need to get as many Mirage 2000s in flying condition as we can for usage as both supporting FAs & as a repository for spares . Ditto for the MiG-29s beginning with the ones we were to contract from the Russians.

Right now the IAF is literally on a wing or half a wing & a prayer.
 
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_Anonymous_ said:
Rafales are ruled out for this decade for even if we sign a deal tomorrow with the kind of order book Dassault has & the delay in supply chain issues plaguing the entire western aerospace ecosystem whatever we get will be next decade unless you subscribe to the RST school of thought whose wisdom always stems from a mix of 20/20 hindsight & faction which entails we need the Rafales come what may even if we get them in the 2040s gracing Republic Day Parades presumably or whatever flimsy logic he comes up with.
Click to expand...
Firstly, Dassault is managing its logistical problems very well and has managed to deliver the number of Rafales planned for 2024. Secondly, its order book is full at a production rate of 3 Rafales per month, but Dassault has stated that it can increase this to 4 per month if necessary. Lastly, the Rafales ordered by India will have to be produced mainly in India, and it will take around a year to build a factory.

We would therefore have the following schedule:
  • After 3 years, the first Indian Rafale will leave French factories, producing 11 Rafales a year.
  • After 4 years, the first Indian Rafale will leave Indian factories, producing 12 in the first year.
  • After 5 years, production in the second year 24.
Assuming we sign now, if we accept simultaneous production in India and France we would have 11 Rafales in 2028, 34 in 2029 and 69 in 2030. That's better than 0, but we need political will.
 
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_Anonymous_ said:
I wonder when will we stop knee jerk reactions to some obscure post or tweet or article somewhere coming up with news good bad or ugly especially if one has been on such fora as this one or any other for a decent amount of time.

One defence channel comes up with a tweet that GE will be further delaying the deliveries of the TF & the breast beating begins in right earnest. Why can't we wait for additional confirmation before getting into mourning ?

For starters how effective would an LCA be in our upcoming war against China is the first question we ought to engage with since depletion or addition in squadron numbers is an ongoing phenomenon much like the PN up until the last decade resembled a para militia if it were under our flag ( I wouldn't even equate it to the ICG ) .

However with the kind of acquisitions they're making they'd be a different beast by next decade . Having said that , unlike the past we're not going up against Paxtan with whom we normally compared our preparedness nor are we likely to but we're up against China who are benchmarking themselves against the US & that's a different beast altogether.

I'm definitely not downplaying concerns regarding the IAF strength as it's fallen so far in terms of numbers that long time watchers not given to knee jerk reactions are terming it the weakest it's ever been since the 1962 war & that in itself tells you a tale of its own as defence expenditure was the last on the priority list of chacha.

Frankly I don't see the Jaguars & the LCA play much of a role in our upcoming war against China for the simple reason it lacks endurance. We can deploy it for BARCAP but against an entire fleet of what the PLAAF can throw against us with the J-20s as the tip of the spear , that too coming at us in numbers only they & the USAF can muster , how effective would it be ? I'm not entirely convinced the LCA has a role to play against China & I'm willing to consider reasoned opinions against mine.

I foresee the LCA & the Jaguars play a role more on our western front to deter Paxtan from getting any ideas , though having said that I really don't see any role of Paxtan for the simple reason I don't see this as a two front scenario for a) Paxtan isn't in any position to prosecute a two front war , b.) In case it gets ideas , the US will weigh in to deter it & given the leverage the US can exercise over Paxtan given its economic plight I doubt Paxtan can resist US pressure , c.) In case of the worst case scenario if we indeed do have a two front scenario , we'd go nuclear & what's more Fauji Foundation is aware of it .

That leaves us with the rest of the IAF. Since we're resolved the MKI in its present form is unable to go up against the PLAAF what exactly do we have that can deter the latter from having the run of our air space since we don't have the Rafales in numbers & our ADS can only have that much of a deterrent effect on the PLAAF. Our MiG-29s & Mirage 2000s will play more of a supporting role but if the bulk of our AF comprises of the MKI which in itself isn't able to shoulder the burden in the state it is in we're staring down the barrel. What's more the kind of schedule that's been released for the Super Sukhoi upgrade makes me want to hold my head in my hands.

So what are the quick fix alternatives assuming there is something such as a quick fix alternative ? Rafales are ruled out for this decade for even if we sign a deal tomorrow with the kind of order book Dassault has & the delay in supply chain issues plaguing the entire western aerospace ecosystem whatever we get will be next decade unless you subscribe to the RST school of thought whose wisdom always stems from a mix of 20/20 hindsight & faction which entails we need the Rafales come what may even if we get them in the 2040s gracing Republic Day Parades presumably or whatever flimsy logic he comes up with.

We won't go in for the Gripens not that they can solve the problem & getting the Eurofighters will create its own set of problems not that either can be got quickly for obvious reasons. That leaves us solely with the last alternative - the Russkies & the Su-57. Doesn't harm us to look into it closely to see if it can really go heads on against the J-20 & the rest of the PLAAF .

Having said that , the Su-57s make sense only if we get them in the configuration the VKS will be getting it in for a few reasons - a.) We can't be sure the export version is really a match for the J-20s , b.) We don't have the time to do an MKI & all the paraphernalia that goes with it as much as the IAF would love it c.) I'm not really sure with the kind of leverage the Chinese exercise over the Russians whether we'd be able to pull it off ( get the Russians to sell us what they have instead of the downgraded export version ) .

I expect that's what the newly formed committee to look into the operational effectiveness of the IAF is all about. Coupled with the repeated exhortations of the Parliamentary Standing Committee on defence has had to say on our air preparedness over the years, this could well be the fig leaf Leaderji is looking out for to pull off the veritable rabbit from his hat. I can't phrase it any better.

Assuming the Su-57s meet our expectations & the Russians agree to part with their crown jewels as opposed to the export version ( assuming that's not up to scratch when compared to the J-20s ) , we need to get as many Mirage 2000s in flying condition as we can for usage as both supporting FAs & as a repository for spares . Ditto for the MiG-29s beginning with the ones we were to contract from the Russians.

Right now the IAF is literally on a wing or half a wing & a prayer.
Click to expand...
https://twitter.com/x/status/1871138396376314009

This new Committee for IAF reequipment or modernization.
- Please remember, Committee in an Indian bureaucratic and political set-up is a means to recommend a decision and course of action which has already been decided.
- It is used as a means to outsource decision making (on paper) to a neutral group of people, including subject matter experts.
- It is a means to shield the decision maker from the decision which he wants to make, and will ultimately make.
- Because in this set-up, it will be said that the decision maker is acting on th recommendation(s) of an expert and neutral group.
---
So in this case, I'm going to put my neck out and speculate that the GOI has taken to bulk import some foreign system (Rafale?Su-57?) without being (unjustly) accused of corruption. As it happened the last time.


Some 'unpleasant' decision is coming because I think the GOI has explored all options and nothing solves the short to medium term rearmament issue of the IAF.
Click to expand...

Damn ! Great minds think alike. To think , I got more than a couple right in as many months with my scoreline reading 2/2 . If I took this as seriously as compared to you know who , hell , I'd give OST a run for his money. Not that I intend to .

But jokes apart , RV has hit bull's eye with his analysis. The decision has already been made . We're just going through the formalities. I'm guessing it'd be a mix of Rafales & Su-57 .

Why ? Coz I don't see baniya in chief let go of the 250 million USD in sunken costs for the development of the Su-57s . Plus he'd be itching to pile it on to the west especially the US.

So, it's deja vu all over again . Just like in the 1980s where we went in for Mirage 2000s & the MiG - 29s for an altogether different set of reasons.

I'm guessing we'd get another 2 squadrons of Rafales we should have got long ago for which we've already paid to prepare the base , ISE , etc & 2-3 squadrons of Su-57s.
 
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Picdelamirand-oil said:
Firstly, Dassault is managing its logistical problems very well and has managed to deliver the number of Rafales planned for 2024. Secondly, its order book is full at a production rate of 3 Rafales per month, but Dassault has stated that it can increase this to 4 per month if necessary. Lastly, the Rafales ordered by India will have to be produced mainly in India, and it will take around a year to build a factory.

We would therefore have the following schedule:
  • After 3 years, the first Indian Rafale will leave French factories, producing 11 Rafales a year.
  • After 4 years, the first Indian Rafale will leave Indian factories, producing 12 in the first year.
  • After 5 years, production in the second year 24.
Assuming we sign now, if we accept simultaneous production in India and France we would have 11 Rafales in 2028, 34 in 2029 and 69 in 2030. That's better than 0, but we need political will.
Click to expand...

Your timeline still doesn't meet our purpose though it has nothing to do with Dassault. It's purely our fault. Let me explain - I'm referring to us getting a minimum 2-3 squadrons of Rafale - C for the IAF before 2030.

Assuming we close negotiations & sign the contract by next year , that's 2026. By your calculations we'd get the whole lot by 2033-34. Assuming Dassault runs through its current order book by 2030 we'd probably get them a year earlier than the aforementioned years.

If we want to Make in India , we'd have to combine the IAF + IN order assuming the IAF goes in for 54 nos . Coupled with the IN requirement for 26 that's 80 numbers.

Wonder if Dassault can be persuaded to set up a line in India along with concurrent mfg in France with the possibility of another 2 squadrons being ordered early next decade.

The only issue is if we can wrap up the agreement within a year & I'm not very confident we'd do so .
 
_Anonymous_ said:
Why ? Coz I don't see baniya in chief let go of the 250 million USD in sunken costs for the development of the Su-57s . Plus he'd be itching to pile it on to the west especially the US.
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It's also because Sukhoi is desperate for defence exports since CAATSA. They may have agreed to give us deep ToT on the lines of the MKI prog.

Right now they'll sell to anybody in sight. It's no coincidence that strategic radar tech like Voronezh is being offered for export. It's like the early 1990s right after the fall of the SU. You could just pick up sensitive stuff (like Kh-55 cruise missiles) and talent at wholesale prices.

With Trump in the WH though, it's going to get much more the difficult for GoI to keep up the balancing act w/Russia. The Americans have many levers to use against us while we have practically none.

Earlier, it was hit jobs against Adani and Khalistan. In the next admin, it'll be tariffs for achieving political objectives (BRICS). Defence purchases from the US (F-15EX) might just be the only way to keep things on an even keel
 
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Speedster1 said:
It's also because Sukhoi is desperate for defence exports since CAATSA. They may have agreed to give us deep ToT on the lines of the MKI prog.
Click to expand...

I'm not sure Russia's willing to sell deep ToT / export stuff they use on an as is where is basis to us & more than that there's the Chinese veto to consider .

Besides I'm looking at exports of some 2-3 squadrons only not an MKI deal as we undertook with the Su-30 .

Speedster1 said:
Right now they'll sell to anybody in sight. It's no coincidence that strategic radar tech like Voronezh is being offered for export. It's like the early 1990s right after the fall of the SU. You could just pick up sensitive stuff (like Kh-55 cruise missiles) and talent at wholesale prices.
Click to expand...
Don't we have the technology to replicate the Voronezh ? Besides how effective is it ? Western propaganda has been going gaga every time Ukraine successfully penetrated Russian defences to score a hit deep in mainland Russia & they're using CMs now . Where's Paddy when you need him ?

Speedster1 said:
With Trump in the WH though, it's going to get much more the difficult for GoI to keep up the balancing act w/Russia. The Americans have many levers to use against us while we have practically none.

Earlier, it was hit jobs against Adani and Khalistan. In the next admin, it'll be tariffs for achieving political objectives (BRICS). Defence purchases from the US (F-15EX) might just be the only way to keep things on an even keel
Click to expand...
Plenty of deals lined up for the US beginning with the deal with GE on the F-414 TF . Then there's the long pending deal for more P-8i , Apaches , Chinooks , etc .

A non partisan egotistical deal maker is always preferred to an ideological regime particularly when our ideologies didn't match as it was the case with the outgoing Biden administration.
 
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The new J-36 is probably just a tech demonstrator but a derivative is/are probably coming next before 2030 perhaps & our Su-30MKI is our only heavy big fighter & will have to deal with it.
Su-30MKI is 21.9m/72 ft long, empty weight 18.4 tons + internal fuel 9.6 tons, + 6 Astr-3 SFDR (1,320 Kg) + 2 R-73 (210 Kg) = almost 31 tons, MTOW 38.8 tons.
J-36 has many speculations on size, weight, etc. One of them is estimated at 22.8m/75 ft long
I took their drawings from Google search, resized & superimposed & it looks like this:

1735816417308.png

Just look at J-36 span engulfing Su-3X :oops:o_O

1735816439907.png

I superimposed their front views at their nose tip.

1735816350258.png

That's a BIG gappu jet 🐋:LOL:
If we think Su-3X to be Elephant 🐘 then J-36 is Mammoth 🦣
 
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It's a shame we'd be abandoning the delta planform after LCA Mk2. Had we carried it forward to TEDBF, it could have been evolved into a next-gen stealth fighter in the same mould as GCAP/Tempest (with blended levcons, outward canted twin tail-fins, etc).

For some reason, the ADA has dropped the chined forward fuselage design first shown at Aero India '21 and is proceeding with a more conventional 'desi-Rafale' config for TEDBF. Inexplicable decision.
 
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