Indian Nuclear Attack Submarine (Project 77) - Updates & Discussions

[Ashwin]

For all you know the hulls may already be in the process of being fabricated. The go ahead was given in 2016 ,IIRC.

No, Only DAC cleared it then. Fabrication starts next year (hopefully). Also there is no space in the production facility. So the schedule depends on S4 rollout. (Unless they build a new facility without us knowing).

Its just impossible to have a new class of SSN in service in 6 years. The series production will probably go on till 2040's.

India first studied nuclear submarines in 1970s, first nuclear submarine Charlie class was taken on lease in 1986-89, detailed design for SSN was completed during late1990s with a lot of Russian inputs and then converted it into ad-hoc SSBN which we better know as INS Arihant. And now we're in much better position to deliver next generation SSBNs within 6yrs if need be.
What was lacking was political will to take on P5s to accommodate/shove/push ourselves on their table whether they like it or not, which we did with Arihant, so now it should be smooth sailing..

And where are these next-generation SSBNs? (Which is S5). We don't have anything comparable with P5 as of now.

 

[_Anonymous_]

No, Only DAC cleared it then. Fabrication starts next year. Also there is no space in the production facility. So the schedule depends on S4 rollout. (Unless they build a new facility without us knowing).

Its just impossible to have a new class of SSN in service in 6 years. The series production will probably go on till 2040's.

I think there was news a couple of years ago or before that , of an expansion of SBC. Moreover, are we really clued in on the the kind of progress the Arihant series has made? For all you know all the boats of the Arihant series must have been already delivered & are on the verge of being commissioned.

I never claimed it'd take 6 years to put a sub that too an SSN in water. Just that going by past precedent in the Arihant's case and that of it's successors, information in the public domain appears much after the incident.

Unlike resident optimist here, I don't suffer from a disease callled optimisis. Hence , I won't speculate any further.

 

[Ashwin]

I think there was news a couple of years ago or before that , of an expansion of SBC. Moreover, are we really clued in on the the kind of progress the Arihant series has made? For all you know all the boats of the Arihant series must have been already delivered & are on the verge of being commissioned.

If there is an expansion of SBC, it can be easily tracked from satellite images.

Are you kidding? its impossible to deliver nuclear subs that fast. We cant even deliver similar-sized surface ships that fast. (don't try to compete with random.)

 

[Ashwin]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1337736885716754432

 

[randomradio]

6 years to commission the first of a class SSN from 1st steel cutting piece ? more than ambitious. 10 years seems a very minimum.

Will obviously take longer than 6 years.

If metal cutting begins next year, then the submarine will only be laid down by 2024-25. Then comes launch, sea trials and commissioning. I'm assuming 2032-35 before we see the first sub commissioned. So that's 11-14 years.

Arihant's metal cutting happened in 1999, was laid down in 2004, launched in 2009, had sea trials in 2014 and was commissioned in 2016. That's 17 years. The SSN should definitely be faster than that.

I think once the dates for S4 and S4* are released, we will be able to make a better estimate of how soon the SSN will become operational by.

Anyway there's no hard and fast rule that it should take 10 years. The first of the Virginia class was ordered in 1998 and commissioned in 2004. So it depends on how many workers you use over multiple shifts and multiple lines. It's a different story whether we have so many workers, especially with P-75I and the SSBN program also running simultaneously. The P-76 may also follow a year or two after P-75I's expected contract signature in 2022. There's a massive militarization effort beginning over the next few years.

 

[Chain Smoker]

Will obviously take longer than 6 years.

If metal cutting begins next year, then the submarine will only be laid down by 2024-25. Then comes launch, sea trials and commissioning. I'm assuming 2032-35 before we see the first sub commissioned. So that's 11-14 years.

Arihant's metal cutting happened in 1999, was laid down in 2004, launched in 2009, had sea trials in 2014 and was commissioned in 2016. That's 17 years. The SSN should definitely be faster than that.

I think once the dates for S4 and S4* are released, we will be able to make a better estimate of how soon the SSN will become operational by.

Anyway there's no hard and fast rule that it should take 10 years. The first of the Virginia class was ordered in 1998 and commissioned in 2004. So it depends on how many workers you use over multiple shifts and multiple lines. It's a different story whether we have so many workers, especially with P-75I and the SSBN program also running simultaneously. The P-76 may also follow a year or two after P-75I's expected contract signature in 2022. There's a massive militarization effort beginning over the next few years.

but where is the money?

 

[_Anonymous_]

but where is the money?

 

[Hydra]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1337994523889311744

 

[randomradio]

but where is the money?

Money isn't the problem, priority is. As long as the priority is defence, money will be made available.

Anyway military modernisation is a long term game, nobody uses the money we have today for it, but the money we will have in the future.

Also these programs happen sequentially. Right now we are procuring materials for the SSNs and metal cutting will begin soon. As materials for all the SSNs are procured over the next few years and metal cutting begins for all SSNs, P-75I will finish the contract stage and enter raw materials procurement and metal cutting stage. When P-75I enters metal cutting stage in a year to 2 years after a contract is signed, P-76 can enter design stage. Once all of the P-75I subs have finished raw material procurement, the P-76 would have finished its design stage along with other contract formalities and will enter the metal cutting stage. You can probably expect the first P-76 to be laid down while at least 2 P-75Is have been launched.

Anyway, as far as the IN is concerned, they believe they can fund all three submarine lines and even the IAC-2 with their own funds, with just the regular amount of growth they get every year.

 

[Parthu]

but where is the money?

That's why CDS wants IN to knock the IAC-2 down the priority ladder. Obviously they believe it's necessary to ensure SSN project take precedence, even at the cost of delaying 2nd indigenous carrier by withholding funds.

Money isn't the problem, priority is. As long as the priority is defence, money will be made available.

Anyway military modernisation is a long term game, nobody uses the money we have today for it, but the money we will have in the future.

Also these programs happen sequentially. Right now we are procuring materials for the SSNs and metal cutting will begin soon. As materials for all the SSNs are procured over the next few years and metal cutting begins for all SSNs, P-75I will finish the contract stage and enter raw materials procurement and metal cutting stage. When P-75I enters metal cutting stage in a year to 2 years after a contract is signed, P-76 can enter design stage. Once all of the P-75I subs have finished raw material procurement, the P-76 would have finished its design stage along with other contract formalities and will enter the metal cutting stage. You can probably expect the first P-76 to be laid down while at least 2 P-75Is have been launched.

Anyway, as far as the IN is concerned, they believe they can fund all three submarine lines and even the IAC-2 with their own funds, with just the regular amount of growth they get every year.

The P76 is actually the SSN project it seems. No word on indigenous SSK.

"Anyway, as far as the IN is concerned, they believe they can fund all three submarine lines and even the IAC-2 with their own funds, with just the regular amount of growth they get every year."

Then they are delusional. Sure they can fund all these, as well as Columbia, Virginia & Ford-class equivalents on top of these, as long as you stretch out the funding over, say, a 100 years.

If IN insists on disregarding the importance of prioritization, then their capabilities will suffer to the degree where core capacities are lost - as the mine-countermeasures & ship-borne aviation departments already show.

 

[randomradio]

The P76 is actually the SSN project it seems. No word on indigenous SSK.

Possible. But all media reports before this have been referring to the P76 as an SSK.

And that tweet suggested P76 will get clearance after P75I is signed whereas the SSN requires a signature over the next few months so construction can begin late next year.

There's still time for the P76 to be officially unveiled. Either after the P75I RFP is announced or after a contract is signed in 2022.

"Anyway, as far as the IN is concerned, they believe they can fund all three submarine lines and even the IAC-2 with their own funds, with just the regular amount of growth they get every year."

Then they are delusional. Sure they can fund all these, as well as Columbia, Virginia & Ford-class equivalents on top of these, as long as you stretch out the funding over, say, a 100 years.

If IN insists on disregarding the importance of prioritization, then their capabilities will suffer to the degree where core capacities are lost - as the mine-countermeasures & ship-borne aviation departments already show.

They are not delusional. The problem is vested interests have blown out of proportion the cost of the carrier itself. Most of the funds needed for the carrier will be needed only after 2026 or so, until 2032 or 2033. The navy seems to be assuming they need about $800M a year for those 7 years. I'm sure the Indian economy between 2026 and 2033 will be able to fund that. Most of the money is going to go into the steel and construction of the hull, which should take 5-7 years. It's bound to be less than 10% of the navy's capital budget every year post 2026, possibly costing just a few percent by 2033. It's not hard to imagine the navy will have a $10B capital budget by 2026-27, up from $6B today.

 

[Hydra]

That's why CDS wants IN to knock the IAC-2 down the priority ladder. Obviously they believe it's necessary to ensure SSN project take precedence, even at the cost of delaying 2nd indigenous carrier by withholding funds.



The P76 is actually the SSN project it seems. No word on indigenous SSK.

"Anyway, as far as the IN is concerned, they believe they can fund all three submarine lines and even the IAC-2 with their own funds, with just the regular amount of growth they get every year."

Then they are delusional. Sure they can fund all these, as well as Columbia, Virginia & Ford-class equivalents on top of these, as long as you stretch out the funding over, say, a 100 years.

If IN insists on disregarding the importance of prioritization, then their capabilities will suffer to the degree where core capacities are lost - as the mine-countermeasures & ship-borne aviation departments already show.

So you know better than IN on its operational requirements & its feasibility.

 

[suryakiran]

So you know better than IN on its operational requirements & its feasibility.

No personal attacks. Counter with your arguements. Forum is for discussion.

 

[Parthu]

Possible. But all media reports before this have been referring to the P76 as an SSK.

And that tweet suggested P76 will get clearance after P75I is signed whereas the SSN requires a signature over the next few months so construction can begin late next year.

There's still time for the P76 to be officially unveiled. Either after the P75I RFP is announced or after a contract is signed in 2022.



They are not delusional. The problem is vested interests have blown out of proportion the cost of the carrier itself. Most of the funds needed for the carrier will be needed only after 2026 or so, until 2032 or 2033. The navy seems to be assuming they need about $800M a year for those 7 years. I'm sure the Indian economy between 2026 and 2033 will be able to fund that. Most of the money is going to go into the steel and construction of the hull, which should take 5-7 years. It's bound to be less than 10% of the navy's capital budget every year post 2026, possibly costing just a few percent by 2033. It's not hard to imagine the navy will have a $10B capital budget by 2026-27, up from $6B today.

I;m entertaining the possibility IN wants to corner GoI into making PMO foot the bill for SSN program down the line (like they did for SSBNs), citing lack of resources within IN CAPEX budgets, once the need for fast tracking indigenous SSNs becomes painfully evident deeper we go into this decade when PLAN SSN patrols into IOR would be doubled if not tripled and they start tailing & harassing our SSBNs.

Because once they become committed to funding a big project like IAC-2, expenditure can go out of control - as happens for pretty much every single warship built by DPSU yards.

Do remember that IN Admirals to this day refer to both SSBN & SSNs as coming under the strategic gamut. Even though in all likelihood the SSNs will never be deploying nuclear warheads themselves.

So you know better than IN on its operational requirements & its feasibility.

So you're saying IN has determined that mine-countermeasures are no longer a required capability set? That would be implied given present situation provided Armed Forces manage everything brilliantly.

 

[Hydra]

I;m entertaining the possibility IN wants to corner GoI into making PMO foot the bill for SSN program down the line (like they did for SSBNs), citing lack of resources within IN CAPEX budgets, once the need for fast tracking indigenous SSNs becomes painfully evident deeper we go into this decade when PLAN SSN patrols into IOR would be doubled if not tripled and they start tailing & harassing our SSBNs.

Because once they become committed to funding a big project like IAC-2, expenditure can go out of control - as happens for pretty much every single warship built by DPSU yards.

Do remember that IN Admirals to this day refer to both SSBN & SSNs as coming under the strategic gamut. Even though in all likelihood the SSNs will never be deploying nuclear warheads themselves.



So you're saying IN has determined that mine-countermeasures are no longer a required capability set? That would be implied given present situation provided Armed Forces manage everything brilliantly.

Where did IN said they dont require minesweepers?

 

[Parthu]

Where did IN said they dont require minesweepers?

Then how come they don't have them?

How come they sat and watched for 10 years as the last of the Pondicherry class retired with no replacement even in foreseeable future?

Why we now reduced to be looking for taking old Russian/Korean MCMVs on lease? This is something cash-strapped PN used to do. You don't consider this a problem brought on by poor planning & prioritization?

 

[randomradio]

I;m entertaining the possibility IN wants to corner GoI into making PMO foot the bill for SSN program down the line (like they did for SSBNs), citing lack of resources within IN CAPEX budgets, once the need for fast tracking indigenous SSNs becomes painfully evident deeper we go into this decade when PLAN SSN patrols into IOR would be doubled if not tripled and they start tailing & harassing our SSBNs.

I doubt the IN will do that, even if it's possible, since it also requires relinquishing a lot of control over the SSNs.

Because once they become committed to funding a big project like IAC-2, expenditure can go out of control - as happens for pretty much every single warship built by DPSU yards.

I don't think it's going to be such a big problem since the SSNs are going to be in the process of being laid down while the IAC-2 begins metal cutting. So most of the SSN contracts will have to be carried out well before IAC-2 begins. So by the time IAC-2 is laid down, I suppose the SSNs would begin the launch process.

While I personally don't like IN's carrier plan for various other reasons, it's the least risky option and definitely affordable.

 

[randomradio]

Then how come they don't have them?

How come they sat and watched for 10 years as the last of the Pondicherry class retired with no replacement even in foreseeable future?

Why we now reduced to be looking for taking old Russian/Korean MCMVs on lease? This is something cash-strapped PN used to do. You don't consider this a problem brought on by poor planning & prioritization?

It's not the IN's fault they don't have minesweepers. Saint Anthony is the main culprit here, followed by Parrikar. Politics has murdered this program, and the Koreans participated in scuttling the project.

IN had launched a program back in 2004 for 24 ships, the tender was for an initial 8 ships. So you can see that it's as old as MMRCA and went through the same MMRCA process. The Koreans won the tender and then refused to play ball, they broke the ToT agreement. It took 7 years to cancel the tender, something UPA should have done in its tenure. Parrikar made it worse because GSL was involved. He should have retendered it immediately and pushed for a GTG deal for 3 ships, if he was responsible. Perhaps things would have gone better if the Italians had won it.

Leasing the requirement as a stopgap measure is a very mature decision. It's no different from the Rafale GTG.

 

[Parthu]

I doubt the IN will do that, even if it's possible, since it also requires relinquishing a lot of control over the SSNs.



I don't think it's going to be such a big problem since the SSNs are going to be in the process of being laid down while the IAC-2 begins metal cutting. So most of the SSN contracts will have to be carried out well before IAC-2 begins. So by the time IAC-2 is laid down, I suppose the SSNs would begin the launch process.

While I personally don't like IN's carrier plan for various other reasons, it's the least risky option and definitely affordable.

Relinquish control in what way? The SSNs are never likely to carry nuclear payloads so GoI would have little interest in controlling what is, in of itself, basically a tactical weapons platform similar to Scorpene/Kilo but with added endurance.

It's not the IN's fault they don't have minesweepers. Saint Anthony is the main culprit here, followed by Parrikar. Politics has murdered this program, and the Koreans participated in scuttling the project.

IN had launched a program back in 2004 for 24 ships, the tender was for an initial 8 ships. So you can see that it's as old as MMRCA and went through the same MMRCA process. The Koreans won the tender and then refused to play ball, they broke the ToT agreement. It took 7 years to cancel the tender, something UPA should have done in its tenure. Parrikar made it worse because GSL was involved. He should have retendered it immediately and pushed for a GTG deal for 3 ships, if he was responsible. Perhaps things would have gone better if the Italians had won it.

Leasing the requirement as a stopgap measure is a very mature decision. It's no different from the Rafale GTG.

That's what successive MoDs do to every single tendered deal. It's not like this is new or unknown behavior. The number of non-G2G, non-FMS, non-'fast-tracked' big ticket deals concluded by the previous ~20 years of MoD can probably be counted on the fingers of one hand. But if IN prioritized more efficiently they could have gotten away with a G2G deal much sooner.

Leasing at this point is not a mature decision - rather it's the only choice left as its the only way to transfer existing hulls without significant amount of CAPEX upfront.

 

[Bon Plan]

SSN, basically a tactical weapons platform similar to Scorpene/Kilo but with added endurance

Added endurance and the ability to cruise at higher speed for far longer time.