Ukraine - Russia Conflict

It's highly likely.

Completely incorrect. The Russian navy is useless (Moskva proved that), the Chinese Navy is far stronger from a neutral perspective.

Of course they will, it's in their interests as part of trade agreements with China.

China won't attack Russia, they are not stupid.

That's where your thinking is off.

So smallpox is a Russian invention... :ROFLMAO: I bet they infected the Ancient Egyptians too.

Russian Navy has SSNs, and we have no defences against that. Moskva was already obsolete.

You obviously are ignorant about the dyanmics between Russia and China. They only converge in some areas, like China and India do in some cases, but they have much more divergent viewpoints elsewhere. It's enough for both to be a military threat to each other. During the initial years of Putin, he wanted NATO's help in dealing with China. To China, Russia is simply last in the priority list, but they are in the list. There's basically far more convergence between Russia and India on military matters than there is between Russia and China.
 
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So really the problem you're blaming on the West is OPEC's fault for being both lazy and greedy, relying on oil revenue for everything, and Russia's fault for starting the war. Amazing how very little it has to do with the West really isn't it?

It's the West's fault for upsetting the applecart. Particularly the US because they are more insulated from price changes than anyone else. We all know it's a screwed up system. But the one upsetting the system is at fault. And the first casualty is the TW.

This is Sri Lanka alone.

OPEC is greedy because the West allows them to be greedy. And the West provoked Russia into invading a country when they had no interest in doing so. To make matters worse, the West did it by destroying the legitimacy of their own global economic system.

OPEC's greed works in the West's favour to control the speed of development in the TW and prevent the rise of competitors.

The global economy can't support a $300/bbl price.

Production can't be sustained without a market. And if the market falls, production will also fall. To compensate, the prices will be raised artificially. If a country is selling 9 million bpd at $100, then they need to raise prices to $300 if their production falls to 3 million. So, instead of producing 5 million and stabilising the price at 150 and take a hit, they will deliberately cut production to 3 million. Russia is the only oil exporting country that works the opposite, 'cause they prioritise jobs and marketshare over revenue. Iran also works similar to Russians.
 
surr.png

So the Russians have surrounded the city and created a cauldron centered around the Azot plant. It's in a similar position as Azovstal was in Mariupol. There are apparently 2000+ UAF and foreign troops (500+) surrounded along with civilian hostages. The UAF are using the civilians to negotiate with the Russians. The Russians have created an evacuation corridor for civilians and the troops that wish to surrender.

Another potential cauldron almost under completion:
surr2.png

Once Novoivanivka falls, the troops will be trapped inside the cauldron.

surr3.png

This is the third major cauldron forming. Taking this area would threaten the town of Bakhmut, very close to the Opytne, which as per the Russians is not a highly defensible town. But taking Bakhmut would make taking Lysychansk easier, it may even force the UAF to retreat from there back to Slovyansk. So they may do their best to protect the town.
 
View attachment 23952

So the Russians have surrounded the city and created a cauldron centered around the Azot plant. It's in a similar position as Azovstal was in Mariupol. There are apparently 2000+ UAF and foreign troops (500+) surrounded along with civilian hostages. The UAF are using the civilians to negotiate with the Russians. The Russians have created an evacuation corridor for civilians and the troops that wish to surrender.

Another potential cauldron almost under completion:
View attachment 23953

Once Novoivanivka falls, the troops will be trapped inside the cauldron.

View attachment 23954

This is the third major cauldron forming. Taking this area would threaten the town of Bakhmut, very close to the Opytne, which as per the Russians is not a highly defensible town. But taking Bakhmut would make taking Lysychansk easier, it may even force the UAF to retreat from there back to Slovyansk. So they may do their best to protect the town.
Do you recollect my post about these three encirclements. RA is doing just that. I had posted it about three weeks back.
 
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So smallpox is a Russian invention... :ROFLMAO: I bet they infected the Ancient Egyptians too.

Russian Navy has SSNs, and we have no defences against that. Moskva was already obsolete.

You obviously are ignorant about the dyanmics between Russia and China. They only converge in some areas, like China and India do in some cases, but they have much more divergent viewpoints elsewhere. It's enough for both to be a military threat to each other. During the initial years of Putin, he wanted NATO's help in dealing with China. To China, Russia is simply last in the priority list, but they are in the list. There's basically far more convergence between Russia and India on military matters than there is between Russia and China.
It was in their interests to give them all smallpox given that they were invading.

China has SSNs too.

You're very poor at reading the signals. That's all I can say. Very poor indeed. The Russians and Chinese have settled their land dispute, and China knows that they would not get that back from Putin without nuclear war, so the case is rested. There's nothing of interest there worth fighting for either.

India's neutrality also makes them of no interest to Russia relative to China (larger economy, stronger military, more agreeable).

Meanwhile:

1655641169031.png
 
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Do you recollect my post about these three encirclements. RA is doing just that. I had posted it about three weeks back.
Yeah, and in that 3 weeks Russia has lost >4,000 men (killed, 3-4 times that injured) trying to encircle 2,000 men. Severodonetsk has been losing them and average of 200 dead and 600-800 injured per day for over a month.
View attachment 23952

So the Russians have surrounded the city and created a cauldron centered around the Azot plant. It's in a similar position as Azovstal was in Mariupol. There are apparently 2000+ UAF and foreign troops (500+) surrounded along with civilian hostages. The UAF are using the civilians to negotiate with the Russians. The Russians have created an evacuation corridor for civilians and the troops that wish to surrender.

Another potential cauldron almost under completion:
View attachment 23953

Once Novoivanivka falls, the troops will be trapped inside the cauldron.

View attachment 23954

This is the third major cauldron forming. Taking this area would threaten the town of Bakhmut, very close to the Opytne, which as per the Russians is not a highly defensible town. But taking Bakhmut would make taking Lysychansk easier, it may even force the UAF to retreat from there back to Slovyansk. So they may do their best to protect the town.
Reality:

1655641535490.png
 
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Do you recollect my post about these three encirclements. RA is doing just that. I had posted it about three weeks back.

I believe the Russians will have to mobilise to make up for the troop losses. They are probably looking for a major victory to sell it to their people, so these encirclements are key.
 
It's the West's fault for upsetting the applecart. Particularly the US because they are more insulated from price changes than anyone else. We all know it's a screwed up system. But the one upsetting the system is at fault. And the first casualty is the TW.

This is Sri Lanka alone.

OPEC is greedy because the West allows them to be greedy. And the West provoked Russia into invading a country when they had no interest in doing so. To make matters worse, the West did it by destroying the legitimacy of their own global economic system.

OPEC's greed works in the West's favour to control the speed of development in the TW and prevent the rise of competitors.



Production can't be sustained without a market. And if the market falls, production will also fall. To compensate, the prices will be raised artificially. If a country is selling 9 million bpd at $100, then they need to raise prices to $300 if their production falls to 3 million. So, instead of producing 5 million and stabilising the price at 150 and take a hit, they will deliberately cut production to 3 million. Russia is the only oil exporting country that works the opposite, 'cause they prioritise jobs and marketshare over revenue. Iran also works similar to Russians.
Russia upset the apple cart by trying to force 40 million people to join the EEU when they didn't want to, and then invading them in several stages when it didn't work out for them.

Russia went against the democratic majority in Ukraine and interfered with their politics, Russia invaded them several times, OPEC could increase oil production. The West's only position is that we're sick of seeing European democracies slowly annexed off by Russia. It's not the West's fault, it's your fault for thinking that, which gives merit to the Kremlin trying to portray itself as the victim and prolongs the war.

Sri Lankan problem began long before 2022.

Oh, the West is responsible for OPEC's greed as well now? :ROFLMAO: The West isn't even on good terms with many of them. They asked Saudi Arabia to increase oil production and the Saudi's refused citing criticism over Jamal Khashoggi and Yemen.

Russia has no interest in invading a country?:ROFLMAO: Russia has been plotting this move for 10 years.

How did the West destroy the legitimacy of their own global system to provoke Russia into plotting the invasion of Ukraine for 10 years?:ROFLMAO::poop:

The world was happily trundling along at $70/bbl until Russia invaded Ukraine, so don't blame the West, especially when we hardly control the production rate of any of the oil. It's not like we wouldn't like to increase the production rate and make it cheaper ourselves right now. Whilst we're managing, we'd be managing much better if the price was lower.

Your unrelenting blame of the West for everything is both ridiculous and childish.

Doesn't work like that, see 2008 for details. Whilst there were economic problems besides, an oil price of $150/bbl triggered the crash, then oil prices dropped. Killing your customers is ultimately worse than taking a hit.

1655643187839.png
The Ukrainian Armed Forces destroyed the weapons depot of the occupiers in the Luhansk region
 
It was in their interests to give them all smallpox given that they were invading.

:ROFLMAO: :ROFLMAO: :ROFLMAO: :ROFLMAO: :ROFLMAO: :ROFLMAO: :ROFLMAO: :ROFLMAO:

China has SSNs too.

You're very poor at reading the signals. That's all I can say. Very poor indeed. The Russians and Chinese have settled their land dispute, and China knows that they would not get that back from Putin without nuclear war, so the case is rested. There's nothing of interest there worth fighting for either.

India's neutrality also makes them of no interest to Russia relative to China (larger economy, stronger military, more agreeable).

Meanwhile:

View attachment 23955

China has little toys with nuclear propulsions that can submerge under water, those are not SSNs. Their actual SSNs are still in the works. In any case, it's about the numbers, not just having the tech.

Nothing's been settled between Russia and China. Whatever they have right now is only a temporary arrangement. The Russians are pretty pissed at China over Tajikistan. These guys just don't speak about their problems publicly. But the problems are bigger than the ones between India and China. Right now, China's first priority is either Taiwan or India, we don't know which. Then there's SCS, Japan and Russia.

China's official targets:

Russia understands India's "neutrality" vis-a-vis China and the US. India is neutral because India doesn't want to be the West's poodle. Our main concern is our economy, until we become big enough to become our own side. In a multipolar world led by the US, China, India and Russia, India plans to be friends with both the US and Russia.
 
:ROFLMAO: :ROFLMAO: :ROFLMAO: :ROFLMAO: :ROFLMAO: :ROFLMAO: :ROFLMAO: :ROFLMAO:



China has little toys with nuclear propulsions that can submerge under water, those are not SSNs. Their actual SSNs are still in the works. In any case, it's about the numbers, not just having the tech.

Nothing's been settled between Russia and China. Whatever they have right now is only a temporary arrangement. The Russians are pretty pissed at China over Tajikistan. These guys just don't speak about their problems publicly. But the problems are bigger than the ones between India and China. Right now, China's first priority is either Taiwan or India, we don't know which. Then there's SCS, Japan and Russia.

China's official targets:

Russia understands India's "neutrality" vis-a-vis China and the US. India is neutral because India doesn't want to be the West's poodle. Our main concern is our economy, until we become big enough to become our own side. In a multipolar world led by the US, China, India and Russia, India plans to be friends with both the US and Russia.
If it was the British you'd have already tried and convicted them.

China has the numbers on navy too, go do some research.


Yeah, Indian review, which is already wrong.
China must work out a strategy to unify Taiwan within the next ten years, that is, by 2020.

Russia will always tell you what you want to hear. They've never supported you against China historically, and they're even less likely to now giving China's growing economy and military standing.
 
Just 3 GMLRS from a HiMARS would have been needed to take out that Russian position. I reckon training takes this long and needed to make sure they get the best out of their MLRS/HiMARS.
Wonder what MLRS rounds they will get. Back in early 1990s they have a useful rocket round that could sew 28 AT-2 mines. Spamming those onto border crossings might prove useful.
 
Wonder what MLRS rounds they will get. Back in early 1990s they have a useful rocket round that could sew 28 AT-2 mines. Spamming those onto border crossings might prove useful.
No cluster or any rounds that disperse and leave unexploded ordinance. They will be guided air-burst and contact high-explosives warheads which will take out anything the Russians have. We've seen videos of Russian armored vehicles going up in flames and tanks disabled when a 152mm arty shell lands next to it a 200lb+ warhead detonating 30 feet above will kill it.