Air Engagement of Operation Sindoor : Analysis

[Rajput Lion]

Saar we need Rudram 2 and 3 let alone 1 which AFAIK we don't have in service and also we need way more elint satellites we only have 1!!!! SU 30 MKI will turn their already useless lumber 1 HQ9s into carbon if it has Rudram missiles and data from more ELINT sats.

Thanks to these high-pressure war like scenario, all our big-ticket defence items now would be expedited. ELINT satellites have been expedited by 4 years and would be operational by next-year.

All RudraM series missiles are very near production (RudraM1 might already be in production), so their induction into active service isn't too far away. Hopefully not only MKI but our Rafales get RudraM series missiles too. That will address one of its limitations and shall make it even more potent.

 

[_Anonymous_]

That's BS stop making excuses.

Are you telling me more than a week of India threatening Pakistan with strikes, causing Pakistan military to go on alert, that IAF said to themselves that even though we're going to hit Pakistan proper it won't be Pakistan military assets and won't be crossing their airspace therefor no need to worry about PAF fighters intercepting us? If IAF thought this way than IAF is run by incompetence!

IAF RoE of not attacking military assets is waaaay different from IAF fighters defending themselves from PAF fighters when IAF fighters RWR are screaming at them that they are being locked during a state of kinetic conflict. I'm pretty sure IAF could see PAF fighters nose hot heading towards their direction in hostile intent. Even during peace time (US policy) when a fighter from a nation that is not friendly starts pointing its nose hot at a US fighter and it doesn't stop after warnings its getting shot down. That's likely a universal policy for all big air forces

Yes sweetie believe it or not we've Gandhians seated in high office which is the reason during the Kargil conflict the GoI strictly forbade the IAF from crossing the international border or the Line of Control thus prolonging the conflict resulting in unnecessary loss of men material money & other resources like time.

Closer to the current period in 2019 Rules of Engagement agreed upon between India & Paxtan & strictly adhered to by the IAF saw them fly some 20-30 kms (?) or was it 10-20 kms away from the LoC while undertaking CAP.

Moreover they weren't permitted to engage the PAF even while they were being engaged & missiles fired at them coz IAF didn't receive requisite clearances from the Ministry of Defence to engage.

Here too the brief was not to engage in SEAD / DEAD as the declared intention of the GoI was a war on terrorists not the armed forces of Paxtan although they're one & the same & it's only the former who were to be targeted.

Our GoI excels in underfunding our armed forces , tying one arm of their behind their back, tripping them constantly & then expecting miracles from them .

Hell if Moshe parted the Red Sea & bailed this or any other GoI out , you can bet your left testicle , assuming you have both , the GoI would complain of their feet getting wet. Any similarities to your fellow Moshes then is a complete coincidence & not at all intentional.

 

[_Anonymous_]

So the near unanimous verdict among Indian amateur experts except one is the wunderwaffe that is Rafale had performance anxieties on the first night , a charge le Francais undoubtedly refuse to accept.

Makes sense why ACM A.P.Singh was interested in deep ToT with source codes from Dassault in case of MII of Rafales.

Where do we go from here ?

Afraid the prognosis is getting worse by the minute. If DA refuses to part with the source codes we're probably not going in for a G2G MII for 114 nos Rafales. Whether we go in for another tranche of 36 nos too is moot.

If DA agrees to do so which I very much doubt for after all it's their family jewels they'd extract their pound of flesh which our GoI / MoD won't be able to stomach.

OTOH if negotiations does produce a result satisfactory to both parties the time taken to arrive at such an agreement would render the Rafales whenever it comes thru such an agreement as a case of too little too late for we need them before 2030 in substantial numbers.

What about more MKIs in Super Sukhoi configuration ? 8 years from 2024 for developmental trials & 8 more years to refit 80 odd MKIs. Can't tell if the IAF is indulging in deep MLUs or designing & trialing a brand new Fighter Aircraft .

That then brings in other 4.5 Gen FAs contemporary to the Rafale - the Eurofighter & the Gripen E . The latter is what we'd be getting thru the Mk-2 & the former has too many political players who like chefs will or have already ruined the future prospects of the Eurofighter technology wise not to mention their political whims.

Which brings us to the 5th Gen FAs on offer. As of now it seems the Su-57 is the only option if we don't get what we want with DA. Whether it is up to the expectations of the IAF & do the job for them is something only they can answer.

As far as the F-35 goes if DA isn't going to share their trade secrets what makes the IAF & MoD think that LM & DoD would ?

Nice pickle we've or rather the IAF has landed itself into. While we still dominate Paxtan & will continue to do so irrespective they get the J-35 , the Han is a completely different beast.

 

[jetray]

That's BS stop making excuses.

Are you telling me more than a week of India threatening Pakistan with strikes, causing Pakistan military to go on alert, that IAF said to themselves that even though we're going to hit Pakistan proper it won't be Pakistan military assets and won't be crossing their airspace therefor no need to worry about PAF fighters intercepting us? If IAF thought this way than IAF is run by incompetence!

IAF RoE of not attacking military assets is waaaay different from IAF fighters defending themselves from PAF fighters when IAF fighters RWR are screaming at them that they are being locked during a state of kinetic conflict. I'm pretty sure IAF could see PAF fighters nose hot heading towards their direction in hostile intent. Even during peace time (US policy) when a fighter from a nation that is not friendly starts pointing its nose hot at a US fighter and it doesn't stop after warnings its getting shot down. That's likely a universal policy for all big air forces

IAF is not authorized to fire missiles against aircraft which is flying across the border, period. Even if we hit the plane debris will fall in pakistan which they will use to paint India as aggressor.

 

[Rajput Lion]

So the near unanimous verdict among Indian amateur experts except one is the wunderwaffe that is Rafale had performance anxieties on the first night , a charge le Francais undoubtedly refuse to accept.

Makes sense why ACM A.P.Singh was interested in deep ToT with source codes from Dassault in case of MII of Rafales.

Where do we go from here ?

Afraid the prognosis is getting worse by the minute. If DA refuses to part with the source codes we're probably not going in for a G2G MII for 114 nos Rafales. Whether we go in for another tranche of 36 nos too is moot.

If DA agrees to do so which I very much doubt for after all it's their family jewels they'd extract their pound of flesh which our GoI / MoD won't be able to stomach.

OTOH if negotiations does produce a result satisfactory to both parties the time taken to arrive at such an agreement would render the Rafales whenever it comes thru such an agreement as a case of too little too late for we need them before 2030 in substantial numbers.

What about more MKIs in Super Sukhoi configuration ? 8 years from 2024 for developmental trials & 8 more years to refit 80 odd MKIs. Can't tell if the IAF is indulging in deep MLUs or designing & trialing a brand new Fighter Aircraft .

That then brings in other 4.5 Gen FAs contemporary to the Rafale - the Eurofighter & the Gripen E . The latter is what we'd be getting thru the Mk-2 & the former has too many political players who like chefs will or have already ruined the future prospects of the Eurofighter technology wise not to mention their political whims.

Which brings us to the 5th Gen FAs on offer. As of now it seems the Su-57 is the only option if we don't get what we want with DA. Whether it is up to the expectations of the IAF & do the job for them is something only they can answer.

As far as the F-35 goes if DA isn't going to share their trade secrets what makes the IAF & MoD think that LM & DoD would ?

Nice pickle we've or rather the IAF has landed itself into. While we still dominate Paxtan & will continue to do so irrespective they get the J-35 , the Han is a completely different beast.

Su-57M or Su-60MKI is imperative to take on PLAAF. Their J-XDS(50) & J-36 are seen flying everyday and by 2030-35, PLAAF would look to deploy them. With Super-Stealth and the ability to carry multiple PL-17s could really complicate matters for us. We need a stealthy sniper of ours to keep these ELO Chinese jets in check.

 

[zinswinsin]

Doesn't matter if it's jesus 4.5 gen, it's still 4.5 gen. The gap is exponential. Vs 5th gen, 10-1 shootdown.

Even best results would be 2-1 kda 4.5 gen vs 4.5 gen.

 

[Parthu]

They are trying to make the scenario realistic and fit the actual capabilities of the PL-15, ie, at range less than 60 km.

They're also claiming a Rafale kill at 98 kms from the LoC (by far the most unbelievable one) so it seems they don't particularly care about painting a decent scenario.

Guess we just have to wait for IAF to say something one way or the other.

 

[_Anonymous_]

Su-57M or Su-60MKI is imperative to take on PLAAF. Their J-XDS(50) & J-36 are seen flying everyday and by 2030-35, PLAAF would look to deploy them. With Super-Stealth and the ability to carry multiple PL-17s could really complicate matters for us. We need a stealthy sniper of ours to keep these ELO Chinese jets in check.

What's Su-60 ?

Let's at least get a solution for their J-20s before we begin thinking about their 6th Gen FAs . That's a decade off . In the meanwhile our silver bullet turned out to be made up of lead . Lot of factors in play of which we don't know anything about but the preliminary signs aren't good I'm afraid. Not good at all

 

[Lolwa]

The crash site is Akalia Kalan, just north of Bathinda. It's 75 km from the border.

No aircraft can get hit at one point at low altitude, lose at least one engine, and still remain flying. Rafale's not a stable aircraft, the minute it takes such severe damage, it's gonna plop down quickly.

They are trying to make the scenario realistic and fit the actual capabilities of the PL-15, ie, at range less than 60 km.



Sure, let's go with that for now.

But there are clues available.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1919978623156503031

Those 3 rafales are what the Pakistanis claim as the three rafales shotdown. So most likely they entered indian air space dropped the bombs. While getting out of Pakistani air space the erieyes locked on them and the Pakistanis started spamming pl-15's. One of them might have damaged and while returning to Bathinda Afs crashed due to engine failure due to pl-15 sharpnel most likely. This is a hypothetical do not take this seriously.

 

[Hydra]

We need to buy 200 rafales to replace the entirety of jaguars and mirage.
And 114 typhoons/f-15EX. This is a reality we need to accept. We also need 8 E-7 wedgetails.

F35 will be the better replacement for jags.

 

[Lolwa]

That's BS stop making excuses.

Are you telling me more than a week of India threatening Pakistan with strikes, causing Pakistan military to go on alert, that IAF said to themselves that even though we're going to hit Pakistan proper it won't be Pakistan military assets and won't be crossing their airspace therefor no need to worry about PAF fighters intercepting us? If IAF thought this way than IAF is run by incompetence!

IAF RoE of not attacking military assets is waaaay different from IAF fighters defending themselves from PAF fighters when IAF fighters RWR are screaming at them that they are being locked during a state of kinetic conflict. I'm pretty sure IAF could see PAF fighters nose hot heading towards their direction in hostile intent. Even during peace time (US policy) when a fighter from a nation that is not friendly starts pointing its nose hot at a US fighter and it doesn't stop after warnings its getting shot down. That's likely a universal policy for all big air forces

We I'll give you this. The rafales didn't employ meteors and the su-30 and mig 29 were doing air cover. The best missiles that they have is the astra mk1(110km) and r-27er(130km). Both outranged by the pl-15. So we again the the short stick advantage. I guess we were planning to save the meteors for a more desperate situation.

 

[Lolwa]

F35 will be the better replacement for jags.

No the only thing he has said is the rafale sucks is because it can't carry rampage and rocks. So it was not platform limitation but lack of customisability. The rafale can only use two A2G options. One is the scalp-eg and the other is the hammer. The rafale currently doesn't have any other options the rest are cold war munitions like the matra durandal and mk84. The rafale cannot be customised to the level the mirage, su-30mki and jaguar can be. The rafale is limited by its lack of variety of munitions and customisability. It's like buying a Ferrari which you can't modify and your warrant will be voided. There is a reason why I shill for the typhoon because it has far more standoff options than the rafale and can easily use american munitions which the rafale just can't.
The typhoon has access to the amraam which is far better than the mica. It also has access to iris-t and asraam. The rafale only has mica as an option. The next is that the typhoon can fire cruise missiles like the scalp-eg and kep-350. It has access to the american agm-88 HARM which the rafale does not and the argument of the hammer being used for sead/dead is now a pointless argument. Typhoon would be a better sead/dead aircraft in 2025. The typhoon can employ every western munition from spice-250,jdam, spear 3(specifically made for sead and dead missions) and JSM. While rafale can basically use three weapons. The hammer, scalp and meteor.
That's why I've been shilling for Typhoon. You basically need a platform that can employ all sorts of weapons.
With the rafale integrated already it's better we use the mmrca to employ new technology and procure the typhoon mk2
In the mean while we can use the extra 36 clause to buy more rafales and get the source code. 36+26 will atleast ease of the French and we can get the f4.2 upgraded rafales with new spectra ew updates.
The rafale is the replacement for the mirage and jaguar. The typhoon/f-15Ex will be the replacement for the mig-29upg.
We buy the typhoons in mmrca 2 with mk2 radar and join gcap. That's the card to play.

 

[zinswinsin]

No the only thing he has said is the rafale sucks is because it can't carry rampage and rocks. So it was not platform limitation but lack of customisability. The rafale can only use two A2G options. One is the scalp-eg and the other is the hammer. The rafale currently doesn't have any other options the rest are cold war munitions like the matra durandal and mk84. The rafale cannot be customised to the level the mirage, su-30mki and jaguar can be. The rafale is limited by its lack of variety of munitions and customisability. It's like buying a Ferrari which you can't modify and your warrant will be voided. There is a reason why I shill for the typhoon because it has far more standoff options than the rafale and can easily use american munitions which the rafale just can't.
The typhoon has access to the amraam which is far better than the mica. It also has access to iris-t and asraam. The rafale only has mica as an option. The next is that the typhoon can fire cruise missiles like the scalp-eg and kep-350. It has access to the american agm-88 HARM which the rafale does not and the argument of the hammer being used for sead/dead is now a pointless argument. Typhoon would be a better sead/dead aircraft in 2025. The typhoon can employ every western munition from spice-250,jdam, spear 3(specifically made for sead and dead missions) and JSM. While rafale can basically use three weapons. The hammer, scalp and meteor.
That's why I've been shilling for Typhoon. You basically need a platform that can employ all sorts of weapons.
With the rafale integrated already it's better we use the mmrca to employ new technology and procure the typhoon mk2
In the mean while we can use the extra 36 clause to buy more rafales and get the source code. 36+26 will atleast ease of the French and we can get the f4.2 upgraded rafales with new spectra ew updates.
The rafale is the replacement for the mirage and jaguar. The typhoon/f-15Ex will be the replacement for the mig-29upg.
We buy the typhoons in mmrca 2 with mk2 radar and join gcap. That's the card to play.

Is India playing Pokemon collecting different types of airframes?

Surely at some point it's enough. Too many different airframes way over complicates logistics.

 

[Innominate]

IAF is not authorized to fire missiles against aircraft which is flying across the border, period. Even if we hit the plane debris will fall in pakistan which they will use to paint India as aggressor.

So let me get this straight... India for over a week was telegraphing that they were going to attack terrorist inside Pakistan proper (which is an act of war no matter how you spin it) knowing the PAF fighters would be flying CAP and READY but India had a moronic RoE at the time that even though they are hitting Pakistan itself and likely causing collateral damage they don't want to be painted as the aggressor by firing at PAF fighters? Really?

Indian missiles blowing up inside Pakistan already made you the aggressor in Pakistan's eyes so that excuse doesn't fly.

Lets just be honest here if true about this RoE it was a complete Fk up by IAF or incompetence for thinking this way if this was the RoE for the strike.

 

[Lolwa]

Rafale will remain a burden rather than an asset. It is good for AD role only as of now and hence forth may not be used for strike role which will go to SU-30MKI and Jaguars and M2Ks.

The rafale does both the role of the mirage and jaguar. It basically is our attack bomber. What failed was the hyped spectra ew. I remember some of the members here saying that an aesa seeker would have no issues locking on a rafale because the aesa could just frequency hop and maintain lock so the spectra would be effectively useless in avoiding a lock on. Also the IAF did not employ the rafale like they did the jaguar.

Rafale is the replacement for the mirage and jaguar.
Typhoon/f-15Ex will be the replacement of mig-29

 

[randomradio]

That's BS stop making excuses.

Are you telling me more than a week of India threatening Pakistan with strikes, causing Pakistan military to go on alert, that IAF said to themselves that even though we're going to hit Pakistan proper it won't be Pakistan military assets and won't be crossing their airspace therefor no need to worry about PAF fighters intercepting us? If IAF thought this way than IAF is run by incompetence!

IAF RoE of not attacking military assets is waaaay different from IAF fighters defending themselves from PAF fighters when IAF fighters RWR are screaming at them that they are being locked during a state of kinetic conflict. I'm pretty sure IAF could see PAF fighters nose hot heading towards their direction in hostile intent. Even during peace time (US policy) when a fighter from a nation that is not friendly starts pointing its nose hot at a US fighter and it doesn't stop after warnings its getting shot down. That's likely a universal policy for all big air forces

It makes sense within the Indian context. The first day was purely about terrorists and the second and third days were about sending a message. So we seem to have taken out PAF assets on the ground, whether aircraft or something else, all hidden from view. Some aircraft were shot down, but those may have been in defensive roles. Overall jet on jet action was very limited. And PAF did fire a lot of BVRAAMs at the IAF without equivalent response.

 

[Lolwa]

Is India playing Pokemon collecting different types of airframes?

Surely at some point it's enough. Too many different airframes way over complicates logistics.

China has su-30mkk,su-35s,su-27,j-11,j-16,j-10,jh-7.
That's approx 7 different types of aircraft.
US has f-22,f-15C,f-15E,f-15EX,f-16 and f-35
Russia has an even bigger zoo.
Egypt, qatar, uae and greece have huge zoos. The fact is the concept of multirole aircraft is a myth just like concepts of 5th gen and 6th gen aircrafts are a myth just like xoncept of 4,4.5,4.5+gen is a myth
The tejas mk1 is a mig-21,mig23 and mig27 replacement.
The tejas mk2 is a mirage replacement
The rafale is a jaguar replacement
The typhoon/f-15Ex will be the mig 29 replacement.
Su-30mki is our heavy fighter and f-15EX does not come even close to the range and capability of the su-30. So no buying the f-15EX in mmrca is not a bad option.
The f-35 fits stopgap role of our deep interdiction fighter till amca comes online.
The su-57 will be the replacement and supplement of the su-30mki.
8 type of aircrafts.
Also we need Nato specific AEWCS with datalink integration to the meteor and amraam.

 

[randomradio]

They're also claiming a Rafale kill at 98 kms from the LoC (by far the most unbelievable one) so it seems they don't particularly care about painting a decent scenario.

Guess we just have to wait for IAF to say something one way or the other.

Yeah.

Based on what Vstol said, it seems to be centered around two points.

1. The Hammer range is insufficient, so Rafale had to sit out 'cause it could only attack across the border with SCALP.

2. He's questioned the survivability of SPECTRA. I have too for the F3R a few years ago, because DEDIRA was announced for 2020, so I have held the opinion that F3R from 2018 did not receive the full treatment. So it's possible DEDIRA is meant from F4 onwards, or just not yet fully integrated on the IAF's Rafales. Meaning, F3R has ACT, but at the F3+ level, which maintains a basic low RCS with weapons rather than frontal LO.

If the IAF continues to press for more Rafales after this, we will have the answer.

Those 3 rafales are what the Pakistanis claim as the three rafales shotdown. So most likely they entered indian air space dropped the bombs. While getting out of Pakistani air space the erieyes locked on them and the Pakistanis started spamming pl-15's. One of them might have damaged and while returning to Bathinda Afs crashed due to engine failure due to pl-15 sharpnel most likely. This is a hypothetical do not take this seriously.

Those 3 Rafales (or aircraft) entered Pak airspace a week before all the action started. The incident had nothing to do with Sindoor.

 

[_Anonymous_]

So let me get this straight... India for over a week was telegraphing that they were going to attack terrorist inside Pakistan proper (which is an act of war no matter how you spin it) knowing the PAF fighters would be flying CAP and READY but India had a moronic RoE at the time that even though they are hitting Pakistan itself and likely causing collateral damage they don't want to be painted as the aggressor by firing at PAF fighters? Really?

Indian missiles blowing up inside Pakistan already made you the aggressor in Pakistan's eyes so that excuse doesn't fly.

Lets just be honest here if true about this RoE it was a complete Fk up by IAF or incompetence for thinking this way if this was the RoE for the strike.

I could give you a long explanation but it'd be a waste of my time. Instead I'd try metaphors. Let's check your cognitive intelligence .

How did Mohammed Ali aka Cassius Clay defeat George Foreman in the Rumble in the jungle match ( no sweetie it's not what you think ) also touted to be the fight of the century ?

Ali described it as Rope a dope. Read up on it . You'd get the philosophy by which the IAF operated in this exercise.

 

[Asterion Moloc]

So let me get this straight... India for over a week was telegraphing that they were going to attack terrorist inside Pakistan proper (which is an act of war no matter how you spin it) knowing the PAF fighters would be flying CAP and READY but India had a moronic RoE at the time that even though they are hitting Pakistan itself and likely causing collateral damage they don't want to be painted as the aggressor by firing at PAF fighters? Really?

Indian missiles blowing up inside Pakistan already made you the aggressor in Pakistan's eyes so that excuse doesn't fly.

Lets just be honest here if true about this RoE it was a complete Fk up by IAF or incompetence for thinking this way if this was the RoE for the strike.

Pakistan routinely bombs Afghanistan saying they are targeting terrorists (with collateral damage also) and it is not treated as act of war by Afghans. Tbh afghans do host ttp inside their country, similarly India bombing pakistani territory but only terrorist facilities and not their military.
US actions after 9/11 has changed the way world sees the terrorist attacks tbh and attacking them is justified by many countries without war as seen else where also like Turkey attacking syria and iraq (kurds) without being in war with them, recent pakistan and iran both launching missiles on opposite balochs etc.

Indian goal is also to acheive something similar, dissuade pakistan to host terrorists as a means state policy and I will say with high chance the RoE were such that attack only terrorist camps initially to give better mileage diplomatically instead blasting their awacs, doing SEAD/DEAD and launching BVRs on PAF first and then attacking terrorist sites which ideally should be the case from military POV but diplomatically too much for India at starting stage of conflict.