Let me try to evolve this scenario:
1. Like any good lie, there is some truth mixed in. Some purges were in fact real to weed out the corrupt, untrustworthy or unwilling.
2. The total number in the "know" is still relatively small -- mostly the CMC, the top members of the central committee and PSC.
3. There is zero disagreement inside China about taking over Taiwan. Even an Indian opposition leader will keep his mouth shut upon discovering Modi's secret plans to take out ISI.
4. The threat of foreign spies exist but they would need to have credible proof -- I myself don't believe this theory, so I imagine foreign governments would want to see overwhelming proof.
Here are some rebuttals the AI gave me:
1. A "purged" general returning would cause confusion, because the whole chain of authority would be thrown into chaos.
2. Using purges as a tactic to "Make a sound in the east, then strike in the west" will backfire since most foreign analysts see Xi tightening control as more alarming.
3. Deception is not free. To fake a broken arm convincingly, you still have to put your arm in a cast — and then you can’t lift weights.
4. If the goal is to "use purges to create an image of PLA dysfunction to reduce deterrence", China has much cleaner levers that are more in-line with PLA culture:
- massive drills that look routine
- mobilization disguised as disaster response
- logistics stockpiles hidden inside industrial policy
- cyber prepositioning
- coast guard + maritime militia normalization
- political messaging ambiguity
