We will be working with the Dassault Aviation teams to set ourselves the target of delivering four to five Rafales a month from 2026. Sebastien Lecornu
Dassault Rafale - Updates and Discussion
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UAE needs 2 jets every month (2027-2030), France (2027-2030) and Indonesia (2026-2029) need 1 each. So 3 here.
India (2028-2031), Egypt, and Qatar will need 1 each as well, apart from France continuing their procurement.
The Saudi deal may get delayed or even canceled due to Trump.
But 50 jets a year for at least 5 years will be impressive. All that revenue.
Unit price has gone up quite a bit irrespective of the scale. We could be looking at $150+M for F5.
what is the name of the anti ship missile then?
Because I don't see a SEAD missile in the same weight range than a anti ship one. 200kg versus 600 more or less.
RJ10 can be a family. With an active X/Ku-band seeker and PCB warhead, it will be anti-ship. With passive RF + MMW seeker and PF warhead, it can take out radars. And with an X/Ku-band seeker and PF warhead, it can act as an anti-AWACS AAM.
Each missile type could come with its own range and flight profile. So the SEAD version could have more fuel, longer range, and a smaller warhead for example.
Macron proposes replacing the F-35s with the Rafale fighters
French President Emmanuel Macron has called on European nations to rethink their reliance on American-made military hardware, urging them to replace Lockheed Martin’s F-35 fighter jets with France’s Rafale and swap out the U.S.Patriot air defense system for the Franco-Italian SAMP/T, according to an interview published on March 14, 2025, by Le Parisien and Nice-Matin. Speaking from Paris, Macron made his pitch during a time of shifting transatlantic dynamics, as European countries face growing pressure to bolster their own defense industries amid uncertainties in U.S. foreign policy following Donald Trump’s return to office in January.
His remarks aim to convince NATO allies and other European partners to buy European, boosting jobs and autonomy while countering what he sees as an overdependence on American technology that’s been a cornerstone of the continent’s security for decades.
The timing of Macron’s statement ties directly to recent geopolitical shifts. With Trump’s administration signaling a possible pullback from NATO commitments—echoing his first term’s skepticism about the alliance—European leaders have been debating how to strengthen their own defenses.
Macron, long a champion of European strategic autonomy, seized the moment to push his case. “We must offer European alternatives to countries accustomed to American equipment,” he told the French newspapers, pointing to the Rafale, built by Dassault Aviation, and the SAMP/T, developed by Eurosam, a joint venture between France’s Thales and Italy’s MBDA.
He argued that scaling up production of these systems could lower costs and create a self-sustaining defense network across Europe, less tethered to Washington’s priorities.
The Rafale, a twin-engine multirole fighter, has been France’s flagship warplane since it entered service in 2001. Unlike the stealth-focused F-35, which relies heavily on its low radar profile, the Rafale emphasizes versatility—capable of air-to-air combat, ground strikes, and reconnaissance with a top speed of Mach 1.8 and a combat radius of about 1,000 miles.
Macron’s pitch comes as several European nations, including Poland and Finland, have opted for the F-35 in recent years, drawn by its advanced sensors and NATO interoperability. Poland, for instance, signed a $4.6 billion deal in 2020 for 32 F-35s, while Finland ordered 64 in 2021, per U.S. State Department records.
France, which never pursued the F-35, sees the Rafale as a proven alternative, with over 200 delivered to its own forces and exports to countries like India and Egypt.
The SAMP/T, meanwhile, is a ground-based air defense system designed to shoot down missiles and aircraft at ranges up to 75 miles. It’s equipped with Aster 30 missiles and a radar that can track multiple targets, making it a competitor to the Patriot, which has a longer range—up to 100 miles—but comes with a higher price tag and complex maintenance needs.
Ukraine’s success with Patriots against Russian jets, widely reported by outlets like Reuters, has cemented its reputation, but Macron wants Europe to bet on the SAMP/T instead. France and Italy have already supplied one system to Ukraine in 2023, and a second is in the works, according to Militarnyi, a defense news site.
Macron’s vision is to expand its use across the continent, replacing the dozens of Patriot batteries operated by nations like Germany and the Netherlands.
Reactions to Macron’s proposal vary across Europe. French Defense Minister Sébastien Lecornu backed the idea, telling France Info Radio that European taxpayers’ money should stay in Europe, not flow to American firms.
He highlighted that France plans to order 42 more Rafales in 2025, per a €50.5 billion defense budget, and is pushing Eurosam to streamline SAMP/T production. But not everyone’s on board.
Polish officials, speaking anonymously to Politico, said their F-35 deal is locked in, citing its integration with U.S.-led NATO operations as a non-negotiable advantage. “We’re not turning back now,” one source said, reflecting a broader sentiment among Eastern European nations wary of Russia and reliant on American security guarantees.
The numbers tell part of the story. The F-35 program, managed by Lockheed Martin, has sold over 900 jets worldwide, with European orders making up a chunk of that, according to the company’s 2024 annual report.
Each jet costs around $80 million, though maintenance and training push the lifetime price much higher—up to $1.7 trillion for the U.S. fleet alone, per a Government Accountability Office estimate. The Rafale, by comparison, runs about $70 million per unit, with Dassault claiming lower operating costs due to its simpler design.
On the air defense side, a Patriot battery costs roughly $1 billion, including missiles, while a SAMP/T system is closer to $600 million, per industry figures cited by Defense News. Macron’s argument hinges on these savings scaling up if more countries buy-in.
History offers context for his push. France has long resisted American dominance in arms sales, opting out of the F-35 program in the early 2000s to protect its aerospace sector. The Rafale struggled early on, losing bids to U.S. jets in places like the Netherlands and Switzerland, but recent wins—like Greece’s 24-plane order in 2021—have bolstered its case.
The SAMP/T, too, has faced skepticism, with only France and Italy as primary users until Ukraine’s deployment proved its worth. Posts on X from defense watchers like DefenceGeek praised its performance there, noting it downed a Russian missile in March 2023, a feat confirmed by Ukraine’s Air Force.
Across the Atlantic, the U.S. response has been muted but pointed. A State Department spokesperson, quoted by CNN, said America welcomes European defense investment but stressed that NATO’s strength lies in shared systems like the F-35 and Patriot. “Interoperability matters more than ever,” the official said, hinting that a shift to European alternatives could complicate joint operations.
Lockheed Martin and Raytheon, the Patriot’s maker, declined to comment directly on Macron’s remarks, though both companies have lobbied hard to keep European contracts. A 2024 Raytheon brief to Congress touted the Patriot’s 240-plus intercepts globally as unmatched by any rival.
European leaders are split on the idea. German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, speaking at a Munich security conference earlier this month, acknowledged the need for more European production but stopped short of endorsing Macron’s specific swap. Germany’s 12 Patriot batteries, some headed to Ukraine, are a big investment, and switching would mean retraining crews and rethinking logistics.
Italy, a SAMP/T co-developer, is more receptive—Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni told reporters in Rome that she’s open to talks, especially if it means jobs in Turin and Milan. Smaller nations like Portugal, which recently paused an F-35 decision, might be Macron’s best shot, per a Defense Procurement International report.
Analysts see both sides. “Macron’s got a point about sovereignty,” said Sophia Besch of the Carnegie Endowment in a recent webinar. “But the F-35’s tech edge and NATO compatibility are tough to beat.” She noted that the Rafale lacks the stealth of its American rival, a gap Dassault says it offsets with electronic warfare upgrades.
On air defense, the SAMP/T’s shorter range limits its appeal against long-range threats like Russia’s hypersonic missiles, a concern raised by Bronk of RUSI in a Defense One piece. Still, Besch added, cost and politics could sway some buyers if France sweetens the deal with financing or joint production.
Macron’s not just talking—he’s acting. He’s pressed Thales and Dassault to cut red tape and lower prices, a move Lecornu said could drop Rafale costs by 10% if orders rise.
Posts on X from FrenchDefTech speculated that a new SAMP/T variant, teased at a Paris air show last year, might extend its range to 100 miles, closing the gap with Patriot. Meanwhile, the U.S. isn’t standing still—Lockheed’s pushing an F-35 Block 4 upgrade with better sensors, set for 2026, per Aviation Week.
The debate’s far from settled. Europe’s spent over $100 billion on U.S. arms since 2014, per SIPRI data, a trend Macron wants to reverse. Whether he can convince enough capital to ditch the F-35 and Patriot for Rafale and SAMP/T depends on more than specs—it’s about trust, budgets, and how much risk countries are willing to take on their own.
Replacing existing contracts is impossible. France should convince the F-35 operators to opt for a second type like Greece. Even half a squadron of Rafales for AS missions can prove to be a selling point.
Take Canada, for example: they have decided to buy 88 F-35s, yet we learn that they are only committed to 16 and that they want to limit themselves to that number and supplement it with European aircraft. I think that Macron is better informed than I am about the possibilities of modifying contracts.
Macron is looking for an AUKUS revenge. Any country that rescinds the F-35 contract will naturally benefit France. Now the question is which one of these countries will be willing to do it.
UK will never make productive decisions on their own.
Nordic and Eastern Europe are unlikely to back away from the F-35. They can at best complement it with another jet. Both regions are dependent on the US.
All the nuclear countries will stick with the F-35. Do you see France building 180 new ASMP-class nukes for Europe with your own money? That eliminates Belgium, Germany, Italy, and the Netherlands.
Spain's going for Typhoons. Turkey too.
That leaves Portugal and Switzerland. But the latter's too far into the deal, just like Canada.
Let's see how things move from April 2nd onwards. As far as I'm concerned, the EU will use the F-35 for getting better terms. In fact, they could increase their F-35 orders just to get some tariff concessions. I mean, the best thing to make up for a trade surplus is to just buy more of what the Americans are already strong at.
At Australia's request, an ‘exploratory discussion’ has been initiated with Paris, with the aim of considering what France could offer Canberra in the event of cancellation or mitigation of the AUKUS mega-contract.
No one in France wants to get their hopes up. But the recent calls from Australia's top brass are a wake-up call for Naval Group: what if Paris could get back into Canberra's submarine game?
I think they will just string you along. They are just fooling everyone.
3-4 Virginias and 1 Astute are expected to begin operations from 2027 on a rotational basis. This is practically guaranteed.
Plus I think the Americans will huff and puff publicly and then still transfer used Virginias at the last moment as planned, reducing room for complaints.
The same with the F-35. They will complain until Trump leaves office. It's impossible for Trump to withdraw from NATO with his current mandate, so it's all just a circus act. Europe is just working on a "Republicans bad, right-wing bad" narrative for the post-Trump era.
By 2035, Luxeuil air base will be the first to host the future ASN4G nuclear missile, and will also receive two squadrons of new-generation “F5” Rafales to deploy it. This will make it the 4th nuclear base in France.
Lockheed “Scrambles” To Save F-35 Deal With Canada! Rafales Back In The Hunt As Carney Visits France For 1st Trip?
Lockheed Martin, the manufacturer of the F-35 Lighting II stealth fighter, which is currently caught in the eye of a political storm, is making concerted attempts to save the Canadian deal from collapsing. The American aerospace giant has reportedly made a new offer to Ottawa.Citing sources, Canadian publication The Globe and Mail reported on March 20 that Lockheed Martin, the manufacturer of the fifth-generation F-35 Lightning II stealth aircraft, has promised Canada to create more jobs in the country if it remains committed to procuring the 88 F-35A fighters.
EurAsian Times could not verify these claims and has reached out to Lockheed Martin for comment. However, if true, it could be an attempt by Lockheed to exploit a key Canadian policy to salvage the F-35 agreement.
Canada’s Defense Procurement Strategy calls for “leveraging defense and security procurements to create highly-skilled jobs and economic growth across the Canadian economy.”
The reports of this new Lockheed offer come amid building suspicion over the F-35 platform and Donald Trump’s hostile policies.
Earlier, German security experts suggested scrutinizing the deal for the fighters based on concerns regarding an alleged ‘kill switch.’ Portugal, on the other hand, announced its decision not to buy the aircraft due to “geopolitical circumstances.” Later, Canada also said it would look for alternatives to the F-35 and explore European jets.
Fearing a fall in sales, Lockheed Martin, along with the Joint Program Office (JPO), recently issued statements dismissing the rumors of a kill switch (alleged to be a software mechanism that could disrupt the operation of the aircraft) on the F-35.
If the Lockheed offer to Canada, as cited by the news report, is true, it may signal a desperate attempt from the manufacturer to appease Ottawa.
Canada ordered 88 fifth-generation F-35A fighters from the US in 2023. The first tranche of 16 jets, which has already been paid for, is scheduled to arrive in the country early next year. However, the Canadian government is now reconsidering the purchase of the rest of the fighters amid an escalation in diplomatic tensions with the Trump administration.
The deal has not been scrapped, but the government has asserted that it needs to “make sure that the contract in its current form is in the best interests of Canadians and the Canadian Armed Forces,” a defense ministry spokesperson said earlier.
Canada has also signaled that other alternatives are currently under consideration. Prime Minister Mark Carney said, “We had a discussion about Canada’s options, and the fact is that under the [F-35] contract, as you may know, there are — after a certain number of purchases — we have options on subsequent aircraft.”
The two North American nations, who have traditionally been staunch allies, have been on a collision course since Donald Trump became President. Known for his penchant for controversies, Trump has repeatedly called on Canada to become the 51st state of the United States of America, even subtly threatening annexation.
In addition, it has also slapped unprecedented tariffs on the country, a move that can adversely affect the Canadian economy.
However, Canada’s reconsideration is not just based on circumstantial differences with the US. There is growing concern in Canada (and elsewhere) that in the event of a disagreement or a political fallout, the Trump administration could weaponize the control it enjoys over the aircraft by blocking access to spare parts and software upgrades that are required to keep the aircraft flying and combat-ready.
Trump’s coercion of Ukraine which involved halting military aid to get the embattled country to end the war, has triggered anxiety and insecurity among US allies.
Canada is apprehensive that it will never be able to fully control the highly automated aircraft. Lockheed Martin has consistently refused to give its complete “source code” to foreign clients, including close allies of the United States.
Notably, public sentiment in Canada has turned against the United States and the F-35 deal. Since the deal was signed, it has generated discontent in Canada due to the exorbitant cost of the purchase. In the days preceding the signing of the contract, activists around the country protested Canada’s decision to purchase US fighter jets.
Later, a Parliamentary Budget Office (PBO) report published in November 2023 also predicted severe price escalation that could cost the Canadian taxpayer billions of dollars more than was initially agreed upon, further generating frenzy.
Therefore, amid deteriorating relations with the US, the Canadians have thrown their weight behind the idea of nixing the F-35 deal.
Can Rafale Will Be Back In The Reckoning?
While contemplating nixing the F-35 deal, Canada is looking towards Europe to seek an alternative. Precedence is likely to be given to the Swedish SAAB Gripen-E, which lost the contract to the F-35. At the time, a dejected SAAB accused Canada of unfair play.If Canada gets serious about scrapping the F-35 deal, SAAB could renew its pitch to Canada. SAAB’s website states: “The newest and fastest fighter on offer, Gripen, was built for Canada’s climate conditions and strategic requirements. It has the longest range and the best fuel efficiency. Best of all, Gripen is a revolutionary breakthrough in fighter design that makes technological upgrades fast and easy – a critical feature for military equipment intended to serve for decades.”
In addition to Gripen, there are two other European alternatives: the Eurofighter Typhoon (developed by the UK, Germany, Spain & Italy) and the French Dassault Rafale. However, there are concerns that the US could veto these sales, as it supplies some crucial components to Gripen, including its engines.
“The ability of the Americans to block (a sale) would be highest with the Gripen because of the engine,” defense analyst Martin Shadwick, who retired after teaching strategic studies at York University in Toronto, was quoted as saying by a Canadian news outlet. “Rafale would have the least American content,” he added.
When Canada set out on fighter jet shopping, it shortlisted Rafale, among other competitors. However, after perusing the draft Request for Proposal (RFP), Dassault Aviation concluded that it would be difficult to achieve the Canadian requirements, which include intelligence data exchange and interoperability, particularly with the United States.
Dassault withdrew from the competition in 2018. At the time, experts noted that since protecting North American airspace is one of the RCAF’s primary roles, the French-origin jets did not fit the bill because the RCAF collaborates with the US Air Force through the North American Aerospace Defense Command (NORAD).
As previously decoded by the EurAsian Times, the biggest stumbling block for Rafale was too much French hardware that was incompatible with the RCAF, including the radar and SPECTRA ECM system made by Thales and engines produced by Snecma. This also included weapons systems, which could pose a big challenge to the RCAF.
It remains to be seen whether France and Canada can chalk out a plan to facilitate a potential purchase at this stage by making technological adjustments.
French President Emmanuel Macron has already thrown the hat in the ring by calling on allies and partners to buy French military equipment as an alternative to American weapons. “Those who buy Patriot should be offered the new-generation Franco-Italian SAMP/T. Those who buy the F-35 should be offered the Rafale,” Macron told French media in a recent interaction.
Interestingly, after succeeding Justin Trudeau as Canadian PM, Carney chose key European powers France and the United Kingdom, rather than the United States, for his first trip abroad.
While in Paris, Carney said his country needed to “reinforce its ties with reliable allies like France” as relations with the United States unravel under Donald Trump.
“It is more important than ever for Canada to reinforce its ties with reliable allies like France,” he said during a joint press conference with French President Emmanuel Macron at the Elysee Palace on his first trip abroad since becoming prime minister.
“I want to ensure that France and the whole of Europe work enthusiastically with Canada, the most European of non-European countries, determined like you to maintain the most positive possible relations with the United States,” Carney said.
Lol. eurasian times.
This is why Canaduh is not going to destroy its aviation sector.
They are not going to kill thousands of jobs for inferior fighters just because they are butt hurt that Orange man is a meanie.
Trappier sees life as rosy! His company is progressing, securing its future, there's no shortage of projects and the US plan to kill it has failed!
Trappier sees life as rosy! His company is progressing, securing its future, there's no shortage of projects and the US plan to kill it has failed!
Non-American allies coming to the rescue.
« Nous avons entendu l’appel du président » : Dassault envisage de livrer jusqu’à cinq Rafale par mois dans les années à venir
‘We have heard the President's call": Dassault plans to deliver up to five Rafales per month in the coming years
‘We plan to deliver three Rafales a month next year, and four from 2028-29,’ announced the group's CEO on Sunday, saying he had “heard the call” from Emmanuel Macron, who had stated his desire “to increase and accelerate Rafale orders” in view of the geopolitical context
Dassault Aviation plans to ramp up production rapidly and is ‘studying the possibility’ of delivering up to five Rafales per month, as requested by Emmanuel Macron in the face of geopolitical turbulence, its CEO Éric Trappier told Le JDD in an interview.
The French president announced on Tuesday that the French government would ‘increase and accelerate orders for Rafales’ for the air force as part of new defence investments decided in response to the geopolitical ‘tipping point’.
‘We have heeded the President's call’.
‘In 2020, we were delivering less than one Rafale per month. Today, we are delivering more than two Rafales a month, and we are going to increase the pace even further [...] We plan to deliver three Rafales a month next year, and four from 2028-29,’ said the French group's CEO.
‘We have heard the President's call and are studying the possibility of increasing to five Rafales per month. There are no concrete orders yet, but we want to anticipate. Do we have enough space? Do we need to recruit? Will subcontractors be able to keep up? Will engine manufacturers be able to meet demand? We have launched a study,’ he added.
He confirmed the volumes needed by the French army, as mentioned by the Minister for the Armed Forces, i.e. around twenty Rafales for the Air Force and around ten for the French Navy.
Asked whether the Rafale had a card to play in the face of Donald Trump's unpredictability, with orders for the American F-35 on hold, Eric Trappier said that Dassault was ‘ready to provide’ its services.
Offering its aircraft to Portugal
In particular, Dassault wants to ‘offer’ its aircraft to Portugal. ‘Portugal is a member of the European Union and NATO. It would have the same interoperability capabilities as we do within the Alliance, so it seems logical,’ added Eric Trappier.
He said he was ‘confident’ about delivering Rafales to India, a contract that has been in the pipeline for some time. ‘For us, it's also an opportunity to extend our production lines by installing a line on site, designed to meet Indian needs, but which could also be used in our ramp-up.
‘I remember when the Rafale was disparaged. Today, it has become the alpha and omega, because it can do everything and it is 100% French’, he said, criticising in passing the Airbus model, the giant of European aeronautics “so big that it no longer knows what it is doing” and inappropriate, in his view, for European defence.
‘We have heard the President's call": Dassault plans to deliver up to five Rafales per month in the coming years
‘We plan to deliver three Rafales a month next year, and four from 2028-29,’ announced the group's CEO on Sunday, saying he had “heard the call” from Emmanuel Macron, who had stated his desire “to increase and accelerate Rafale orders” in view of the geopolitical context
Dassault Aviation plans to ramp up production rapidly and is ‘studying the possibility’ of delivering up to five Rafales per month, as requested by Emmanuel Macron in the face of geopolitical turbulence, its CEO Éric Trappier told Le JDD in an interview.
The French president announced on Tuesday that the French government would ‘increase and accelerate orders for Rafales’ for the air force as part of new defence investments decided in response to the geopolitical ‘tipping point’.
‘We have heeded the President's call’.
‘In 2020, we were delivering less than one Rafale per month. Today, we are delivering more than two Rafales a month, and we are going to increase the pace even further [...] We plan to deliver three Rafales a month next year, and four from 2028-29,’ said the French group's CEO.
‘We have heard the President's call and are studying the possibility of increasing to five Rafales per month. There are no concrete orders yet, but we want to anticipate. Do we have enough space? Do we need to recruit? Will subcontractors be able to keep up? Will engine manufacturers be able to meet demand? We have launched a study,’ he added.
He confirmed the volumes needed by the French army, as mentioned by the Minister for the Armed Forces, i.e. around twenty Rafales for the Air Force and around ten for the French Navy.
Asked whether the Rafale had a card to play in the face of Donald Trump's unpredictability, with orders for the American F-35 on hold, Eric Trappier said that Dassault was ‘ready to provide’ its services.
Offering its aircraft to Portugal
In particular, Dassault wants to ‘offer’ its aircraft to Portugal. ‘Portugal is a member of the European Union and NATO. It would have the same interoperability capabilities as we do within the Alliance, so it seems logical,’ added Eric Trappier.
He said he was ‘confident’ about delivering Rafales to India, a contract that has been in the pipeline for some time. ‘For us, it's also an opportunity to extend our production lines by installing a line on site, designed to meet Indian needs, but which could also be used in our ramp-up.
‘I remember when the Rafale was disparaged. Today, it has become the alpha and omega, because it can do everything and it is 100% French’, he said, criticising in passing the Airbus model, the giant of European aeronautics “so big that it no longer knows what it is doing” and inappropriate, in his view, for European defence.
so India is well ahead of France in this Tech. We have tested our own about an year ago.
It all depends on the ambition of what you've tested. For example, on our M-51s our MIRV heads are already manoeuvring hypersonic gliders, and they're operational, not just being tested.