Ukraine - Russia Conflict

[randomradio]

This kind of policy doesn't last very long: did you know that the USSR collapsed because it spent too much money on the military?

The USSR overspent on their military.

Right now, Russia's military spending is less than what USSR spent in terms of percentage to GDP (6.3-8% vs estimated 15+%), and a large chunk of that is due to fighting a war, which will reduce to a significantly manageable level once done.

If their govt revenue and spending grows at current pace, and war ends in the next 2 years, resulting in a budget reduction from 13.5T rub to just 8T rub, they will maintain a 10T rub surplus.

If they still keep their defense spending up at 13.5T, they get to maintain a surplus of around 2T in 2027. If post-war budget drops to 10T in 2027 and its growth sustains alongside growth in revenue, then they will maintain a surplus of up to 6-8T progressively by 2030 alongside a 13T defense budget in 2030, which they can save for a new war.

If they spend 7-8T on procurement, it will be the same as what all of NATO spends on procurement. And they can do it with a massive revenue surplus all the way up to 2035-40. That's around 150T in surplus at least. Oil prices may start dropping after 2035, but Russia's oil industry is the cheapest to maintain, and India and China can sustain as markets for the longest due to compatible refineries, so it will also be the last to go.

It's all more than sustainable until 2045.

 

[randomradio]

Based on some quick calculations, if postwar budget drops to 10T (4% of GDP), and they maintain a 10% growth in revenue, which is actually quite easy until 2034, we get the defense budget climbing up from 10T to 20T. And a combined surplus of 72T, without calculating growth from investments.

Basically: Defense spending = 115T or $1.2T
Surplus = 72T or $750B

We can assume, 60%, or 70T will be the procurement budget, almost $750B. In just 8 years.

Even after ignoring the surplus, and assuming a modest 10T budget for 2027, Russia will match all of NATO's defense procurement budget by 2034. he only thing left will be accumulation. Matching both Russia and China would require NATO to spend at least 3 times more than current budget.

 

[randomradio]

Russia's is 68.61T rub or $696.3B.



NATO's is $3.35T.



India's at a modest 27.45T INR or $291B (with depreciating rupee, normally it should appreciate but best leave it for much later).

While Russia's procurement budget of $109B will easily rival all of NATO's $463B by 2034. India will rival US' budget by 2040 quite easily, especially with rupee appreciation.

It's not noticeable today, but by 2030 Russia's modernization should become evident, and by 2035 it will become a reality. They could be building 2-3 SSNs a year by then. It's gonna be a pretty ridiculous situation.

 

[Soldier35]

A Ukrainian serviceman of the Lugansk assault regiment filmed the moment when a Ukrainian M113 armored personnel carrier ran over a mine during a battle in the city of Toretsk. A Russian UAV also recorded the moment when the vehicle ran over a mine. It is worth noting that such combinations of footage are rare. The M113 armored personnel carrier was developed in the United States in 1959 and was produced until 2007.

 

[Soldier35]

Episode of the rescue of a Russian Ural truck from an attack by a Ukrainian FPV drone. The video was filmed by Russian servicemen of the 3rd motorized rifle division in the Luhansk region, near the village of Melovatki. The drone is being fired at from small arms at a long distance. The drone was destroyed above the truck itself. Judging by the video, the truck was not damaged.