Ukraine - Russia Conflict

Picdelamirand-oil said:
This kind of policy doesn't last very long: did you know that the USSR collapsed because it spent too much money on the military?
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The USSR overspent on their military.

Right now, Russia's military spending is less than what USSR spent in terms of percentage to GDP (6.3-8% vs estimated 15+%), and a large chunk of that is due to fighting a war, which will reduce to a significantly manageable level once done.

If their govt revenue and spending grows at current pace, and war ends in the next 2 years, resulting in a budget reduction from 13.5T rub to just 8T rub, they will maintain a 10T rub surplus.

If they still keep their defense spending up at 13.5T, they get to maintain a surplus of around 2T in 2027. If post-war budget drops to 10T in 2027 and its growth sustains alongside growth in revenue, then they will maintain a surplus of up to 6-8T progressively by 2030 alongside a 13T defense budget in 2030, which they can save for a new war.

If they spend 7-8T on procurement, it will be the same as what all of NATO spends on procurement. And they can do it with a massive revenue surplus all the way up to 2035-40. That's around 150T in surplus at least. Oil prices may start dropping after 2035, but Russia's oil industry is the cheapest to maintain, and India and China can sustain as markets for the longest due to compatible refineries, so it will also be the last to go.

It's all more than sustainable until 2045.
 
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Based on some quick calculations, if postwar budget drops to 10T (4% of GDP), and they maintain a 10% growth in revenue, which is actually quite easy until 2034, we get the defense budget climbing up from 10T to 20T. And a combined surplus of 72T, without calculating growth from investments.

Basically: Defense spending = 115T or $1.2T
Surplus = 72T or $750B

We can assume, 60%, or 70T will be the procurement budget, almost $750B. In just 8 years.

Even after ignoring the surplus, and assuming a modest 10T budget for 2027, Russia will match all of NATO's defense procurement budget by 2034. he only thing left will be accumulation. Matching both Russia and China would require NATO to spend at least 3 times more than current budget.
 
Russia 2027-34.jpg

Russia's is 68.61T rub or $696.3B.

NATo 2027-34.jpg

NATO's is $3.35T.

India 2027-34.jpg

India's at a modest 27.45T INR or $291B (with depreciating rupee, normally it should appreciate but best leave it for much later).

While Russia's procurement budget of $109B will easily rival all of NATO's $463B by 2034. India will rival US' budget by 2040 quite easily, especially with rupee appreciation.

It's not noticeable today, but by 2030 Russia's modernization should become evident, and by 2035 it will become a reality. They could be building 2-3 SSNs a year by then. It's gonna be a pretty ridiculous situation.
 
A Ukrainian serviceman of the Lugansk assault regiment filmed the moment when a Ukrainian M113 armored personnel carrier ran over a mine during a battle in the city of Toretsk. A Russian UAV also recorded the moment when the vehicle ran over a mine. It is worth noting that such combinations of footage are rare. The M113 armored personnel carrier was developed in the United States in 1959 and was produced until 2007.

 
Episode of the rescue of a Russian Ural truck from an attack by a Ukrainian FPV drone. The video was filmed by Russian servicemen of the 3rd motorized rifle division in the Luhansk region, near the village of Melovatki. The drone is being fired at from small arms at a long distance. The drone was destroyed above the truck itself. Judging by the video, the truck was not damaged.

 
We publish archive footage of a Russian Su-34 fighter-bomber dropping bombs at an ultra-low altitude in Ukraine. Presumably, FAB-250 bombs were dropped. The location of the shooting is not reported. It is worth noting that low-altitude bombing is no longer used now, as bombs with UMPK have appeared. The launch of a Ukrainian air defense missile is visible after the plane, whether the plane was shot down is unknown, the video does not show. The FAB-250 aerial bomb can be dropped from a height of 50 meters.

 
The Russian army has started using FPV drones of the Molniya type in Ukraine, equipped with an incendiary warhead. Technical information about the Molniya-1 UAV is in the link to the video in the comments to the video, there is no technical information yet about the Molniya-2 UAV. The video shows a Molniya- UAV strike on a temporary stay point of the Ukrainian army located in one of the buildings. The location of the shooting is not reported.

 
Footage of a Ukrainian M113 armored personnel carrier running into a mine barrier near the settlement of Kondrashovka, in the Kupyansk direction. The mine barrier is made of three TM-62 mines. The M113 armored personnel carrier was developed in the USA in 1959 and was produced until 2007, a review is available on the channel. At the end of the video, there is an insert showing a Ukrainian T-64 tank running into mines near the settlement of Yampol, in the Krasnolimansk direction.

 
Footage of Russian FPV drones attacking a Ukrainian M1A1SA Abrams tank. The tank was used by the Ukrainian 47th Magura Brigade. The video was filmed in the Belgorod region of Russia, the tank was moving towards the village of Demidovka to support the evacuation of the wounded. Judging by the knocked-down track, the tank ran over a mine, after which it was attacked by Russian FPV drones. The M1A1SA Abrams tank is made in the USA, a review is available on the channel. To evacuate the Ukrainian M1A1SA Abrams tank, a BREM-1 left the Sumy region of Ukraine, which was also destroyed by Russian FPV drones

 
Footage of the use in Ukraine of the Russian M-28NM helicopter, guided missile X-39 LMU, also called "Product 305". In this video, the missile was used against the Ukrainian army command post located in one of the houses. The second part of the video, the strike of the X-39 LMUR missile, against the support of the railway bridge over the Dnieper River. The Russian helicopter Ka-52M can also use X-39 missiles.

 
Footage of an attempt to counterattack by a Ukrainian armored group in the Pokrovsk direction, near Pokrovsk. The Ukrainian armored group consists of a Swedish-made Pbv 302 armored personnel carrier, Ukrainian-made Kozak-7 armored vehicles, American-made BATT UMG armored vehicles, and other equipment. The military equipment bears a new Ukrainian tactical sign in the form of a cross with arrows. The Ukrainian group was attacked by Russian BT-40 FPV drones and fiber-optic-controlled FPV drones. Technical information about the equipment is available on the channel. Judging by the video, some equipment was attacked by drones several times.

 
An episode of the battle of the Russian 4th separate motorized rifle brigade, using several tanks with the Tsar-Mangal protection. During the march of the tanks, one of the T-72 tanks with its own name "Rusich" stalled. The crew was forced to abandon the tank, but later it was evacuated, shown at the end of the video. The column of tanks turned around and, covered by a smoke screen, retreated to their original positions. After that, the Russian tank was subjected to multiple attacks by Ukrainian FPV drones. Ammunition was dropped on the tank, and drones with a thermite charge were also used to set the tank on fire. It is worth noting that some of the Ukrainian drones did not explode. As previously reported by the operators of Ukrainian FPV drones, the effectiveness of FPV attacks is now about 35%. As a result of numerous attacks by Ukrainian drones, the Russian T-72 tank with the Tsar-Mangal protection was never destroyed.

 
South block said:
Permanent unchanging Animosity has taken deep roots in mind of every Ukrainian even kids against Russia & it's people & Russia has only itself to blame for this....... Stupidest war after Iran-Iraq War.
https://twitter.com/x/status/1909987587046912080
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Pakistanis share this same hatred towards us like what these Ukrainian folks are displaying towards Russia. Neither India nor Russia are to be blamed for this. Only reason of their hatred is this 'little brother syndrome', pushing them towards the enemies of the big brother(China in case of Pak & US/EU in case of Russia).
 
Footage of Russian FPV drones supporting soldiers in storming buildings and bunkers in Ukraine. The video was filmed in the Orekhov direction and shows drone strikes on buildings, bunkers and strongholds of the Ukrainian army. Drone models not disclosed

 
La chute des cours du pétrole va poser de sérieux problèmes à la Russie et l’Arabie Saoudite

Translated with DeepL.com (free version)

Falling oil prices will pose serious problems for Russia and Saudi Arabia

A sustained drop in oil prices to around 60 dollars a barrel will have a major impact on the budgetary and financial situation of Russia and Saudi Arabia, the two biggest oil exporters. Moscow has to finance Vladimir Putin's war in Ukraine, while Riyadh has to finance Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salmane's pharaonic development projects.

Following Donald Trump's announcement of a 90-day suspension of the increase in tariffs for all countries, down to 10%, with the notable exception of China, the price of a barrel of oil climbed back to around $62 for WTI grade and $65 for BRENT grade.

However, the trade war between the world's two biggest economic powers is continuing, and will have a serious impact on oil and gas producers. Most of them are dependent on oil and gas revenues. Their tax revenues are closely linked to the quantity of oil they sell, and even more so to the market price of their barrels.

And despite the rebound on 9 April, in the space of a week they have just lost a further 15% or so, returning to levels close to those seen during the Covid-19 pandemic.

But between 2020 and today, the major oil-producing countries have become more fragile. They have launched major investments to transform their economies, like Saudi Arabia, or embarked on a very costly war, like Russia.

It is these two countries that dominate the oil market as the two main exporters. They also control the OPEC+ cartel, with Saudi Arabia leading the historic OPEC of 13 countries and Russia leading the 10 OPEC allies that make up the ‘+’.

Concern from the Russian authorities

The Russian authorities have not concealed their concern. ‘The collapse of the oil market poses risks for the Russian economy’, acknowledged Elvira Nabiullina, Governor of the Central Bank of Russia, on 8 April, according to the Tass agency.

The Russian economy is built largely on hydrocarbon exports. Almost 30% of the federal budget depends on revenues from oil and gas exports. And Vladimir Putin acknowledged last year that Russia was now devoting almost 9% of its GDP to defence, a level unprecedented since the end of the Soviet era.
 
Footage of three Ukrainian M109 self-propelled guns being destroyed by Russian FPV drones. The 155mm M109 self-propelled howitzers have been produced in the United States since 1962. The howitzer has a firing range of up to 30 km and a crew of up to 6 people. Ukraine received 90 self-propelled guns of the following versions: M109A3GN, M109A4BE, M109A5O and M109A6/L. The video shows a Russian FPV drone striking a Ukrainian M109 self-propelled gun near the village of Sergeyevka, west of Pokrovsk. Drone footage of a burning Ukrainian M109 self-propelled gun near the village of Liptsy, in the Kharkiv region of Ukraine. And footage of a Ukrainian serviceman from the ground, destroyed by a Ukrainian M109 self-propelled gun, as a result of an attack by a Russian FPV drone in the Sumy region of Ukraine.

 
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