The Trump Administration: News & Analysis

[randomradio]

looks like Trump admin is going after the thugs that biden was protecting,

Today, Harpreet Singh, an alleged terrorist responsible for terror attacks in Punjab, India, was arrested by the #FBI & #ERO in Sacramento. Linked to two international terrorist groups, he entered the U.S. illegally and used burner phones to evade capture. pic.twitter.com/vObj2xPa8Q

— FBI Sacramento (@FBISacramento) April 18, 2025

It's quite ironic. Everything that made America powerful, that allowed them to suppress rivals and enemies, ended up being used on the Republicans, and now the Repulicans are dismantling everything that made America powerful. Such a big self-goal for the deep state.

 

[_Anonymous_]

A great civilization is not conquered from without until it has destroyed itself within

Will Durant, The Story of Philosophy: The Lives and Opinions of the World's Greatest Philosophers

Every great cause begins as a movement, becomes a business, and eventually degenerates into a racket.

Eric Hoffer, The Temper of Our Time

Between these two phrases can be charted the US's rise decline & eventual fall.

Has been true of all civilizations & empires in the past including modern nation states . Will be true of these entities going into the future too.

In any case the US can't be overcome by any outside entity as of the present & near to mid term future . With such entities , the fall usually comes from internal factors much like the Mongol Empire before outside forces take over & complete the task.

 

[randomradio]

As long as the Republicans stay in power for a decade more after Trump, they can reverse their decline. American power is far too entrenched in the global economy, to the point where any decline will take multiple generations for the decay to set in, all due to the lack of outside competition that can nibble away at their economic foothold on the world. Any competitor to the dollar is 25 years away, even if technological competitors are merely 10 years away. That's enough time to regroup and reorient their priorities.

 

[_Anonymous_]

Evidently RST for all the stories he spins thinks the US will be a bye stander when China makes its move on Taiwan.

Further , the entire thrust of Trump's tariffs on everybody & everything is centred solely on getting all these nations to toe the US line on China.

How things progress once this is achieved will determine which way the future world order is shaped ?

Will the US cease being a power after a Pyrrhic victory over China ? Well did the UK or France cease being powers after WW-2 ? No . But they ceased being the super powers they were before it.

However two major differences remain. The US is too far to be affected by a war as no power has the ability to take the war to mainland US. Having said that , a quick recovery from a Pyrrhic victory or any kind of victory calls for a massive aid plan like the Marshal Plan.

With the decline in the USD , massive debts & likely loss of the USD as the world's reserve currency , even they wouldn't be able to bail themselves out or at any rate to the extent they'd like in quick time .

What we're looking at is a gradual decline eventually accelerated once internal contradictions reach critical mass which it will for the US ALREADY has internal chasms too deep to be forded.

 

[randomradio]

While the US will obivously militarily intervene in Taiwan, the victory won't be Pyrrhic. I won't be surprised if some elements within the American establishment intend to fight China before they move up to peer status.

As long as China is unable to consistently hit the US Mainland using conventional weapons, nothing bad will happen to the Americans. War materials lost are peanuts in comparison.

Previous empires declined after they lost their foothold. It took 100 years for the Mughals to decline. The Brits and French lost their colonies and then took about 20 years to decline, a rapid decline due to the devastating nature of the war itself. So any American decline that's not caused by a devastating war that impacts the Mainland will take decades to materialize.

The US, indebted or not, will find other emerging markets to buy their debt. The emerging market will be reason they will maintain their foothold for the next 25 years. That's 2/3rds of the world continuing their dependence on the dollar, especially in an environment where China is going to be suppressed for a decade or so. So the American economy is not going anywhere. They can even shrug off a 200% debt to GDP. Even more so if Trump's trade war brings back some manufacturing.

A nuclear war is quite unlikely. A robot-uprising could be a century away. A civil war is much more likely, but internal chasms are deeper in Europe than in America, so we are likely to witness one in Europe first, if it happens.

Otoh, China is very, very likely to sit quietly throughout Trump's term. All they have to do is bide their time to make war very expensive for the US. In a decade, they are likely to achieve peer status, and that will change the equation. Xi's gonna have to suck it up.

 

[_Anonymous_]

In the event as I've pointed out umpteen times earlier , the war will be fought before this decade is out & not on the centenary of the founding of the PRC which was the CCP's plan earlier on before they got caught in their own hubris or as RST thinks when the US is in a better position to do so which is mid next decade.

You can see that thought process reflected in what Mao Keji wrote as much as in what he leaves unsaid meaning one has to read between the lines , something RST has proved hopelessly hopeless at since I've had the misfortune of reading him , something Paddy would gladly testify to if he was here , having beaten RST black & blue innumerable times , using his own evidence which he painstakingly assembles here only to arrive at the wrong conclusion ALWAYS , with the likes of Paddy dismantling it bit by bit & do quite a thorough job of it ,may I add , unlike when he runs up against most of us.

Even if one were to disregard the exchange of N weapons , this war will be fought in China's backyard far away from US shores in what'd begin as an air - sea campaign culminating in a sea land campaign if the former manage to get to Taiwan's shores.

What this means is all the front line states like Japan , Philippines , RoK & Taiwan itself will be utterly destroyed along with most of coastal China where all their big cities & mfg hubs lie .

This'd also translate to mean near complete destruction of the USN & USMC assets apart from considerable damage to the USAF , something that can't be replaced in 2-3 decades even if money is easily available which it won't be for reasons I'd try to explain later on in this post.

Then there's the joker in the pack DPRK who'd definitely enter the war & will in all likelihood be the cat's paw as far as exercising the N option goes primarily against RoK but also Japan & for all you know the US including mainland US.

All this doesn't factor in China's own decision to use N weapons once it believes its own red lines are crossed especially if the war isn't going as planned which in turn put Xi Jinping & his clique in grave danger . In this respect this is a classic case of similarity with the Indo Chinese paradigm . At what point will we threaten usage of N weapons if a broad stalemate is reached on the LAC & China starts attacking our population centres & industrial hubs ?

Besides will the Chinese leadership be sufficiently deterred by our threats or do we actually explode a couple of them in China to send the message across . And then what ? Haven't seen @Jaymax in a long time . He's spent quite some time studying this as well as done a deep dive into Ravi Rikhye's now dated war gaming efforts to this effect. Damn ! Where's PKS when you need him ?!

A decline is merely a figurehead which is what the Mughal Empire was after Nadir Shah sacked Delhi. Post that the Mughal Emperor was a puppet either of mostly the Marathas or the Afghans or his own feudatories who were mostly allied to either one of the aforementioned powers.

The UK and France were utterly devasted post WW-2 & owe their rapid rise mostly to the US & its Marshal Plan . You take that out of the equation & you'd see them resemble the Mughal Empire. They're still in a much better shape than the Mughal Empire was a century before they folded up , not long after Zebu's death following the 27 year Maratha Mughal war - the equivalent of WW-2 in as far as the after effects to the Mughals were concerned , though the decline which is coming now will be much more rapid & long lasting for a completely different set of reasons.

I'd suggest RST keep track of the amount of gold every major country in the world including India's hoarding ever since the US & the west nuked the Russian economy , apart from diversification of FOREX reserves . The trust that the world reposed in the western financial world order went when that N option was exercised.

A war when it comes will send the world's economy especially that of the US with the kind of debt it's carrying into an abyss from where return if possible ( & that's a very big IF ) will be extremely long drawn out particularly for the US.

The days of the US printing money to get out of its troubles or issuing new bonds will be a matter of the past once war breaks out. It's not even much of an option today even if they can still go about it like it's biz as usual.

The US faces a class war which may take on other hues whereas Europe faces an ethno religious war between the nationalists there & the Islamists they imported plus their cuckolded native allies.

Well , China's not likely to sit this one out for it can't . The series of tweets I've enclosed in the Sino US Diplomatic & Economic Thread earlier today , clearly brings this fact out & spells out the reasons for it. The only missing link in the.equation is the EU though they'd eventually give in to US demands irrespective their distaste for the Trump administration & its policies .

Once that happens , the countdown begins....

 

[FenicromovCW]

It is always pleasant to read when you people argue with one another. So many dimensions of issue in discussion, starts blooming when you do so.

 

[randomradio]

Regardless of China's proximity to Taiwan and the battle area, the American technological advantage is still currently insurmountable for the Chinese. Both countries will go in with their own distinct advantages and disadvantages, but as Ukraine has shown, the possibilities of air power seems to have been blown out of proportion. The attacker remains at a distinct disadvantage against enemy IADS, even more so once the USN's ships end up on Taiwan's eastern coast. So China is unlikely to establish and maintain air superiority over Taiwan preventing an invasion altogether.

Furthermore, Taiwan's reoriented its defensive posture from deterrence to island defense with greater focus on the army, IADS, and missile forces. With the Americans providing air and naval support, the Taiwanese can use their resources to focus almost entirely on supporting ground troops. This is a huge advantage compared to just a few years ago. The Taiwanese have also raised missile units that are more capable than India's.

When it comes to the army, from their initial focus on independent operations, the Taiwanese have reoriented towards using American tactics in preparation for joint ops with US and Japanese forces. All three forces are trained and equipped to fight in urban/hilly environments in Taiwan. Especially so when it comes to the Taiwanese and Japanese that have live in such a unique geography, unlike the Chinese.

So, while the Chinese have geographical proximity as an advantage, the sea, the terrain, defensive posture, and infrastructure provide an advantage to the Taiwanese. In order to surmount these challenges, the Chinese require a level of technological sophistication they do not possess at the time, while the Americans have all the tech and training needed to operate in such an environment.

While I commend Ignorants' admiration for BMD's intellectual mediocrity and his humility in where he places himself on the totem pole, I have to regularly point out such deficiencies in his thinking from time to time to present a better perspective to readers. Maybe he'd like to stylize himself as a resident Mao Keji, but sadly neither are military strategists.

In case of war, the conundrum China will have placed itself in is far more Pyrrhic than people imagine. They will lose most of their sea-based capabilities, both military and civilian, significant damage to military and civilian infrastructure, like power plants, debilitating sanctions that prevent reestabilishing trade relations for many years, and the possibility of actually not taking Taiwan by force. A military loss may even weaken the civilian hold over the CCP.

As for any potential decline of the US due to internal chasms and class divsions and whatnot, they are still one or two decades away from the formation of real cracks in the system. As long as there is no direct external threat to their economy, it will still keep chugging along. If China's decided to destroy itself in a war over Taiwan, the dollar hegemony will stay even longer, 'cause competing powers like India and ASEAN are still 20+ years away from beginning to compete. And while people have lost trust in the American financial system, the cracks are still too small and the impact too miniscule, that's why they did it.

To sum it up, China's victory over Taiwan can only be Pyyrhic or be met with a devastating loss. And regardless of local issues, the Americans are gonna remain on top for many more decades before they are forced to share.

 

[_Anonymous_]

Pentagon , various serving & retired senior armed forces personnel especially from the USN & USAF have gone on record to state that China's rapidly catching up with the US if they haven't already done so both in sheer numbers & tech & Resident Story Teller here who on Mondays claims or at any rate corroborates what I've just reported will on Tuesdays make a claim like what he's just wrote.

Of course multiple news reports over the years of Chinese modernization cum theater ization of their armed forces on schedule & due to be completed by 2027-28 all needs to be handwaved as does news of a critical shortage of technically skilled manpower, naval dockyards engaged in ship building in the US leading to slow production, repair, maintenance & overhaul rates, etc.

This is the phenomenon of " relapse after a bout of fact speaking " I referred to earlier only to be met by a juvenile response of Thursday to Monday vacation. It's vacation time 24x7 if one's working in a sarkari company including for ones brains which more often than not finds expression here apart from the place of work.

Importance of Air power blown out of proportion??! This when everybody & his dog including Hydrocele here have noticed that the very lack of effective deployment of air power is one of the principal reasons the conflict in the Ukraine has prolonged for as long as it has .

This , once again , is something RST has himself highlighted multiple times earlier, on Mondays mostly, explaining it away to Russian war fighting strategy or rather to a fatal flaw in it . Of course , on Tuesdays you get the kind of reasoning you just got .

The attacker remains at a disadvantage if it happens to be any country other than China. The reasoning is as simple as the sheer firepower they're not just willing to but can easily deploy in the form of their formidable rocket forces on an island < 200 kms away from their shores in addition to the air power they can bring to bear not to mention the PLAN, their Coast Guard which is equivalent to the Navy of a mid sized power & the various naval militias.

This is what the Americans & their allies are up against - a peer adversary the likes of which they've never faced since WW-2. Hence my repeated description that whoever wins this will win a Pyrrhic victory though having made such a statement , I don't expect the Chinese to win this one.

Irrespective how much Taiwan upgrades their defensive or offensive power it can only delay Chinese advances not stop it. For that to happen, the US & it's allies must strain every sinew in their bodies to be able to do so & then again there's no guarantee they'd succeed.

What I've offered earlier were opinions based on my gut instinct when I wrote China will lose this one for a loss really means TOTAL ANNIHILATION of their war waging machine which this case is their navy, air force, marine component,( since this is primarily an air - sea campaign followed by a sea - land campaign if they manage a foot hold on Taiwan) rocket force, logistical chain & mfg hubs along the coast & hinterland. Easier said than done.

If it comes down to fighting on land then the war is already lost by the allies for we're referring to an island here not even an archipelago like Indonesia or dense jungle terrain along with hills like in Vietnam or Laos, Cambodia or Myanmar. There's simply no space to fall back on. It's also known as lack of strategic depth. It's for this reason Paxtan has initiated all hostilities so the fighting happens mostly on our side. For perspective, consider the war to take Okinawa during WW-2.

Taiwan's best bet is to delay the Chinese onslaught till the US & its allies enter the fray & from there on go on the offensive such that they sink whatever China has to float including their ship building centers. Once again easier said than done .

Not only are the Chinese on the verge of achieving all such capabilities to launch an amphibious operation , they also have supporting units like the PLAN , PLAAF , PLARF, etc geared up to support such an endeavor.

As I've pointed out before however valiantly the Taiwanese fight unlike say what's happening in Ukraine which is a completely different war in the sense that it's long become a war of attrition coz neither side could impose itself on the other , they've strategic depth to their west apart from the country itself being a vast grassland essentially part of the Eurasian Steppes.

In contrast the war over Taiwan will not last as long for it's an air sea war concentrated in a very limited geography . Whoever wins this, wins the war. The US + allies best bet is to annihilate the air & sea components of the Chinese war machine. Once again it's easier said than done. This is what makes this war such a mouth watering prospect if you're a bye stander with nothing to lose or gain.

It's the ultimate clash of titans not seen since WW-2 & anticipated during the Cold War against a different enemy.

This is precisely the reason I keep reminding readers of the formidable abilities of resident story teller in assembling all the pieces of evidence, putting them together & coming to the wrong conclusion.

It's like solving a jigsaw with all the pieces neatly fitted in only to see a piece or two lying outside. Only RST has this unique ability to achieve something like this & it's no mean achievement. Lesser mortals will usually have a few empty spaces on the jigsaw board & pieces lying outside it which doesn't fit into those slots. Not RST though.

Paddy wasn't a mediocre intellect by any strech of imagination. He was a qualified dunce in all matters non technical. His articulation & arguments were usually what you hear in watering holes or the coffee house or the saloon while waiting your turn . You expect a better class of intellect if you've been in forums for years except if you're Paddy & come up with pedestrian arguments like he did.

Which in turn makes the fact of RST losing most bouts he had with Paddy all the more embarrassing. Let me cite an example top of the mind - RST & Paddy were dueling it out like little children ( I mean what else would you expect the standard of the argument to be when you've Paddy on one side & manchild on the other) piling up bytes in terms of pages consumed adding to the costs of running this forum & RST suddenly brings out a Freedom House Report to buttress his point.

Now even an amoeba with literally no brain would know Freedom House Reports are heavily biased against India with India featuring at the bottom of their rankings. This one & many other organizations like this got their cues & funding from organizations like USAID , Soros , Omidyar, etc.

Hardly the sort of evidence one would quote in support of ones argument especially against a westerner & the inevitable & the unexpected happened. Paddy who's not normally known to read reports & if he does doesn't understand the half of it, actually read & understood the report & proceeded to dismantle RST's arguments like bull tossing a full grown man in the air treating him like a rag doll with utter contempt & disrespect.

It made for painful viewing but then again what can one expect from an argument between a qualified dunce & somebody who's too clever by half ?! I could go on to cite dozens of examples filling up a few pages but trust readers would've gotten the drift.

Actually I deliberately cited Mao Keji. He's somebody RST can take his cues from. Here's a first rate analyst albeit a propagandist for the CCP who knows when to speak, how much & what depending on the topic concerned & the audience.

For eg he thinks Trump is not as committed to the Quad & hence won't see India as a balancer to China which in turn would force India to tilt towards China to bring it back to Trump's notice in order for preferential treatment. This is right out of the CCP playbook.

That's what I've been stressing that China'd eventually lose with the caveat that in the process the US & its allies would lose their war waging abilities too especially the US. I expect Taiwan, Philippines, Japan & especially RoK to be turned into wastelands not necessarily nuclear wastelands though I'm not sure this qualifier would hold true for RoK. OTOH, DPRK will be totally obliterated if it exercises the N option which I've a feeling they would.

I foresee China splitting into 4-5 different countries like it has so many times in the past. Hence the immortal opening lines from their most favorite & famous historical novel -

A kingdom long divided must unite & long united must divide.

~ Romance of the 3 kingdoms

That one quote basically sums up 4 thousand years of Chinese history. True for the past present & future too.

The cracks have already taken the shape of chasms. 4 years of Trump will further widen those chasms into irreconcilable differences not that they already aren't so . To quote The Joker from The Dark Knight - Madness is like gravity. All it needs is one push.

That push will be in the form of prolonged economic downturn around the world where the USD will lose its primacy & precious metals will regain theirs.

That'd set the ball rolling for the eventual disintegration of the US which will come in the distant future not before Europe has its tryst with destiny in the form of Islam. So we're referring to long timelines here. End of this century or beginning next century .

Since that's too far off, no point speculating on it. The other details mentioned though will happen within our very lifetimes like Europe's & our existential war with Islam which I see reach the beginning of the crescendo sometime after we cross the half

I see ASEAN, Latin America & believe it or not Turkey to be the biggest beneficiaries in a post war scenario . I would've loved to include India's name in that list if 56" didn't phuck up our defence procurements the way he has apart from experimentations like Agniveer at a wrong time in history.

Cracks too small & impact miniscule?? Seems like RST was on crack when he typed this. Evidently he's not paying attention to countries lowering their exposure to the USD which is being accelerated every year replacing it with bullion purchases or even lower exposure to US bonds than before.

Whoever will win this war will win a Pyrrhic victory. I'm betting on the US. China as we know it today would cease to exist. They'd return to form a few centuries later. Has been true throughout their history. Just like us.

Will the US be on top? Of course it will. In a much more diminished state with its war waging abilities restricted to the Americas at best from which I doubt they'd ever reach the heights they occupy as of the present for its not just about getting the finances to rebuild their war fighting machinery again which itself would be an impossible task but it'd also be a question of their will power & priorities.

 

[randomradio]

When "Pentagon , various serving & retired senior armed forces personnel especially from the USN & USAF" say the word "rapidly," they are talking 10-20 years, not 3 years. And 10-20 years is rapid.

Xi's 2027 readiness is about invading Taiwan, not fighting the US. Their ultimate goal to match or exceed US power is 2049.

Turmoil and Transformation: The Reconfiguration of China’s Military Under Xi Jinping - Australian Institute of International Affairs

At the 19th Communist Party Congress in 2017, Xi ordered the PLA to become a “world class military” by 2049.

So the Pentagon and those senior officials are saying it will happen earlier than 2049.

There were doubts about air power defeating ground forces since the Gulf War, and Ukraine proved that true. That's why militaries are now preparing for long wars.

'No Short, Limited War': India Draws Critical Lessons From Ukraine War; Ex-Army General Says Delhi Must Recalibrate Its Strategy

Dmitry Medvedev, Russia’s former president, has warned that Moscow’s confrontation with the West will last decades and that its conflict with Ukraine could become permanent. Pakistan Army Runs Out Of Fuel; Suspends All Military Drills & War Exercises Till Year End The protracted Russia-Ukraine...

www.eurasiantimes.com

Major General Mandip Singh, who retired from the Indian Army after nearly four decades of service, opined: “The era of the clinched “short, swift, limited” wars is over. There is adequate space for conventional wars with a nuclear overhang. India needs to be prepared for protracted wars.”

“For a very long time, the Indian military has planned on short, swift wars. The ‘Joint Doctrine of the Armed Forces-2017’ says that the character of future wars is likely to be ‘ambiguous, uncertain, short, swift, lethal.’ Some rethinking is required on this bold assertion and is hopefully underway,” Lt Gen DS Hooda said.

“Future wars will not be short and swift. Therefore, militaries will be requiring readily available spares of warships/aircraft carriers/fighting machinery and ammunition in huge quantities. Self-reliance is the need of the hour,” Captain DK Sharma, former Indian Navy spokesperson, said while giving a way out of the chronic arms and ammunition shortage plaguing the Indian Armed Forces.

So air power is no longer sufficient to dislodge ground forces. Ukraine's changed all equations. It's also why Taiwan's reoriented its defensive posture and China may have radically changed their perspective since too.

Taiwan's defensive plan is to prevent a successful lodgment first. If that fails, Ukraine has shown that they can defend the island, hence the new plan. That's why the renewed focus on ground forces while air and naval support come from the US.

Lol at everything else. There seems to be a need to prove how impressed one is of BMD. And we can see how well people read all the evidence and come to the wrong conclusion in this very thread.

And China splitting?

 

[jk007]

Taiwan's defensive plan is to prevent a successful lodgment first. If that fails, Ukraine has shown that they can defend the island, hence the new plan. That's why the renewed focus on ground forces while air and naval support come from the US.

Taiwanese & Chinese are ethnically same people.
a) assuming 50% Taiwanese are left liberal, would they want to fight their Chinese (ideological) brothers? That leaves only (remaining) 50% Taiwanese willing to fight. Of that remaining 50%, how many of them are willing to fight stomaching the damage / destruction? Like how many will give up when the bullets start flying?
b) Ukrainians have big issues with Russia (like Stalin created starvation etc etc). What is it that Taiwanese have with Chinese that they will fight with everything they have?

My point being - will Taiwanese be motivated enough to fight Chinese with Americans; Japanese helping or would the Taiwanese expect Americans; Japanese to do heavy lifting while the Taiwanese sit and watch (like the Afghans did when US is fighting taliban)?

 

[Parthu]

Trump draft executive order would make sweeping changes to the U.S. State Department​

Published Sun, Apr 20 20251:49 PM EDT | Updated Sun, Apr 20 20252:13 PM EDT
Erin Doherty @erinpdoherty​

The Trump administration could soon roll out sweeping changes to the U.S. State Department, according to a draft executive order obtained by CNBC that lays out what it calls a “disciplined reorganization” of the nation’s diplomatic service.

The 16-page draft order, which is not dated but appears to be prepared for President Donald Trump’s signature, would dramatically upend the department if it is enacted — shuttering American embassies across Southern Africa and eliminating bureaus that work on issues like democracy and human rights, as well as international organizations like the United Nations.

The order also details an overhaul to the process for selecting and training U.S. diplomats.

According to the order, the changes are intended to “streamline mission delivery, project American strength abroad, cut waste, fraud, abuse and align the Department with an America-First Strategic Doctrine reflecting the priorities of the Executive Branch.”

The draft executive order proposes the elimination of all “non-essential embassies and consulates in Sub-Saharan Africa” and the consolidation of regional bureaus around the world.

Current regional bureaus, per the order, would be consolidated under four “regional corps”:

• Eurasia - including Europe, Russia and Central Asia;
• Mid-East - including Arab nations, Iran, Pakistan and Afghanistan;
• Latin America - including Central America, South America and the Caribbean; and
• Indo-Pacific - including East and Southeast Asia, India, Bangladesh, Sri Lanka, Nepal, Bhutan and the Maldives.

America’s diplomatic presence in Canada would be drastically cut under the order. Going forward, State Department operations in Canada would “fall under a significantly reduced team delegated as the North American Affairs Office” within Secretary of State Marco Rubio’s office.

The White House did not immediately respond to CNBC’s request for comment on the draft order.

The New York Times first reported on the document. Rubio, in response to the article, wrote on X: “This is fake news.”

The draft order also calls for the termination of offices and positions within the department focused on climate, women’s issues, democracy, human rights, migration and criminal justice.

In addition to the consolidation of embassies and consulates, the order would make fundamental changes to the hiring practices at the department.

The longstanding Foreign Service Officer Test would be scrapped in favor of an evaluation based in part on whether candidates show “alignment with the president’s foreign policy vision.”

The draft order says that the “full structural reorganization and transition” should be completed by Oct. 1.

It also says that any current foreign services officers or civil service personnel who do not want to take part in the new regional organization structure or “serve the interests of the administration may elect to voluntarily separate from the department through a one-time buyout and transition program” until Sept. 30.

https://www.cnbc.com/2025/04/20/trump-state-department-rubio-executive-order-draft.html

++++

Rubio apparently said this is fake news. We'll see how much of it, if any, is true in due course. Personally, I think it's great if offices like USCIRF are shuttered for good - but I don't think they come under State's purview (?). It's interesting if they want to close the embassy in Canada & manage the affairs out of a smaller office...reinforces the '51st state' narrative and ought to piss some people off.

 

[randomradio]

Taiwanese & Chinese are ethnically same people.
a) assuming 50% Taiwanese are left liberal, would they want to fight their Chinese (ideological) brothers? That leaves only (remaining) 50% Taiwanese willing to fight. Of that remaining 50%, how many of them are willing to fight stomaching the damage / destruction? Like how many will give up when the bullets start flying?
b) Ukrainians have big issues with Russia (like Stalin created starvation etc etc). What is it that Taiwanese have with Chinese that they will fight with everything they have?

My point being - will Taiwanese be motivated enough to fight Chinese with Americans; Japanese helping or would the Taiwanese expect Americans; Japanese to do heavy lifting while the Taiwanese sit and watch (like the Afghans did when US is fighting taliban)?

If Hong Kong had a military and the ability to fight back, they would have.

Logic makes sense at the individual level, but when masses are involved, the mentality changes.

MIB explains that.

Brad Pitt explains how people think when mass events also involve casualties.

Anyway, in terms of numbers, the Taiwanese, alongside the Americans, British, and Japanese, can bring to force enough numbers to fight the Chinese. Taiwan has over 23 million people and a million plus are trained to fight. They can absorb another million into their army while their allies can bring in at least a quarter of a million more, but much better equipped and supported. A few million civilians have also received some level of training or instruction in disaster relief and support operations. And all this in an area three times smaller than Arunachal Pradesh.

Taiwan's also planning for a foreign legion, this could give them 20-40k crack Western troops during wartime. Even more if there's a belief that they can operate under American air support and command. From India alone around 50-75k Agniveers will graduate over the next 3 years, ripe for wartime employment.

It's possible the Americans will expand their ground presence as Taiwan's military is slowly eroded.

So, if the Chinese create a lodgment, we could still see a long war on the main island.

I suppose if a few million people cannot stop the Chinese, then the war will be lost. That would make 50% of Taiwan's population unnecessary.

 

[randomradio]

Trump draft executive order would make sweeping changes to the U.S. State Department​

Published Sun, Apr 20 20251:49 PM EDT | Updated Sun, Apr 20 20252:13 PM EDT
Erin Doherty @erinpdoherty​

The Trump administration could soon roll out sweeping changes to the U.S. State Department, according to a draft executive order obtained by CNBC that lays out what it calls a “disciplined reorganization” of the nation’s diplomatic service.

The 16-page draft order, which is not dated but appears to be prepared for President Donald Trump’s signature, would dramatically upend the department if it is enacted — shuttering American embassies across Southern Africa and eliminating bureaus that work on issues like democracy and human rights, as well as international organizations like the United Nations.

The order also details an overhaul to the process for selecting and training U.S. diplomats.

According to the order, the changes are intended to “streamline mission delivery, project American strength abroad, cut waste, fraud, abuse and align the Department with an America-First Strategic Doctrine reflecting the priorities of the Executive Branch.”

The draft executive order proposes the elimination of all “non-essential embassies and consulates in Sub-Saharan Africa” and the consolidation of regional bureaus around the world.

Current regional bureaus, per the order, would be consolidated under four “regional corps”:

• Eurasia - including Europe, Russia and Central Asia;
• Mid-East - including Arab nations, Iran, Pakistan and Afghanistan;
• Latin America - including Central America, South America and the Caribbean; and
• Indo-Pacific - including East and Southeast Asia, India, Bangladesh, Sri Lanka, Nepal, Bhutan and the Maldives.

America’s diplomatic presence in Canada would be drastically cut under the order. Going forward, State Department operations in Canada would “fall under a significantly reduced team delegated as the North American Affairs Office” within Secretary of State Marco Rubio’s office.

The White House did not immediately respond to CNBC’s request for comment on the draft order.

The New York Times first reported on the document. Rubio, in response to the article, wrote on X: “This is fake news.”

The draft order also calls for the termination of offices and positions within the department focused on climate, women’s issues, democracy, human rights, migration and criminal justice.

In addition to the consolidation of embassies and consulates, the order would make fundamental changes to the hiring practices at the department.

The longstanding Foreign Service Officer Test would be scrapped in favor of an evaluation based in part on whether candidates show “alignment with the president’s foreign policy vision.”

The draft order says that the “full structural reorganization and transition” should be completed by Oct. 1.

It also says that any current foreign services officers or civil service personnel who do not want to take part in the new regional organization structure or “serve the interests of the administration may elect to voluntarily separate from the department through a one-time buyout and transition program” until Sept. 30.

https://www.cnbc.com/2025/04/20/trump-state-department-rubio-executive-order-draft.html

++++

Rubio apparently said this is fake news. We'll see how much of it, if any, is true in due course. Personally, I think it's great if offices like USCIRF are shuttered for good - but I don't think they come under State's purview (?). It's interesting if they want to close the embassy in Canada & manage the affairs out of a smaller office...reinforces the '51st state' narrative and ought to piss some people off.

Hopefully Trump succeeds in dismantling and overhauling their system entirely. He needs to clean up the DoJ too.

 

[_Anonymous_]

Here's a public statement by a serving USAF general on when he thinks China's going to initiate its campaign to take Taiwan.

Google Search

In addition to this , one can modify the search to include Congressional hearings , innumerable podcasts , articles etc by Think Tanks all dedicated to run a fine comb thru Sino US relations , Chinese foreign policy , China's military budget , modernization , views held by the top CCP leadership , etc to predict when exactly will China move not if ? They're good at it is coz they derive their bread & butter from it.

It's an entire industry / eco system which RST could've been part of but unfortunately for us chose not to , instead inflicting his wisdom on us. We've been enlightened multiple times over ever since.

So are we to understand that if China begins its campaign to take Taiwan, the US won't interfere ? I don't see any evidence of the Chinese thinking that way. Perhaps RST can share with us details of why he thinks the Chinese think the US won't interfere with their plans to take Taiwan.

I've also linked plenty of articles on the Indo Chinese war gaming thread in the past on our own forthcoming war against the Chinese along with links to podcasts , interviews , monographs etc from our Think Tanks including ones offering dissenting views by Lt Gen Hooda & Air Marshal Arjun Subramaniam among others on every thing from Chinese military modernisation , theater ization ,etc & our response to it .

These also included material in the public domain on the tentative dates by US scholars of the Taiwan invasion which they are positive would be by the end of this decade along with their reasons to think so . I've no intention nor motivation to re post them once again or look for new material on the said topic.

Interested people can check out that thread where RST's constant flip flop on these issues & shifting goalposts , to saying one thing today & another tomorrow will also find ample examples there.

After all not all of us are employed by sarkari cos to dedicate time for this . Plus unlike sarkari cos we have to deliver results failing which we are liable to get the boot unlike sarkari cos employees where effort is king , tall talks rule but results are subjective. ALWAYS.

Sure , Russia's justified in fighting a never ending war minus extensive use of their air force . Perhaps we should emulate them when we go up against China. Hey , guess what ? We actually are preparing for exactly such a kind of war which is the reason the ACM has been squealing in public on the state of the IAF. But what does he know ? OTOH we're blessed to receive daily gyan from RST. Lowy Institute's lose is our gain.

Yes , our armed forces would say that because those idiots were guided by even bigger idiots in the form of our foreign office mandarins seeing only Paxtan as the threat , hence advised preparations accordingly , more so when the army themselves lack brain power to think out of the box ( best manifested in the usually loqacious Lt Gen P. Ravi Shankar being tongue tied , huffing & puffing , hemming & hawing , when asked the reason ATAGS weren't inducted which he answered as due to weight issues since he couldn't be honest about it by saying that at that point in time while framing SQRs Army HQ never saw ATAGS doing duty across the LAC but was deemed fit ONLY for the plains & a meager 144 nos ULH was deemed good enough to be positioned on the LAC since Doklam & Galwan weren't merely in the future , they weren't anticipated ) hence dutifully followed advice , restricting themselves to planning for a couple of weeks of intensive engagement since it was against Paxtan before the entire world would intervene forcefully to prevent escalation.

To make matters worse the China Study Group under the PMO which was supposed to be isolated & insulated from our foreign policy establishment to offer alternative views & not merely serve as an echo chamber of the MEA got hijacked by the latter during the original RaGa's premiership , with the result none of these buffoons could anticipate how'd China react when we rescinded Article 370 nor could they see China agreeing to sign all those agreements with us was not to ensure status quo prevailed , but merely to buy time.

Result - Doklam followed by Galwan & all these characters from the Dhotis to the suits to the suits had their langots up their bung hole & here we are.

If air power is no longer sufficient to dislodge ground forces then artillery & armour by themselves are no longer sufficient to dislodge well entrenched ground forces too. Perhaps future wars should begin with nukes then. This is how arguments against Paddy normally unfolded.

Already answered this by saying if China manages a foot hold on Taiwan it's practically game over. Taiwan lacks strategic depth . They can't even fight a prolonged guerrilla campaign.

I did remark earlier on RST's abilities rather the lack of it in arriving at informed analysis. I don't see how any normal man would read what I wrote above as being impressed by Paddy.

Sort of reflects why his prediction record still stands 0/10 after all these years. It's that immaculate & by the looks of it will continue to be so for a very long time indeed. I'm still rooting for RST though.

Yes . A very good chance China'd split for the simple reason it's headed by a clique with a dictator at the top & no succession plan with Xi not getting younger besides being in a hurry to craft his legacy by taking Taiwan.

All one has to do is go back in history to see why Mao launched the Cultural Revolution. It was to cover up for the massive failure of the Great Leap Forward . It resulted in the Sino Soviet split following Kruschev's criticism of Stalin which left him particularly vulnerable after the disastrous Great Leap Forward , followed by him launching the Indo China war , followed by him launching the Cultural Revolution to purge the party of dissidents & opposition to himself.

Xi doesn't have that luxury. Besides that's an old game which can't be repeated . Xi's broken convention set by Deng where present day leaders get to choose the next to next generation of leadership by making himself dictator for life & abandoning collective decision making much like his idol Mao which in turn means any victory will be his alone to savour and any loss will be his cross to bear with the knives out for him & his clique coz of the many enemies he's made - all ingredients for a classic civil war.

It'd be much the same in Russia once Putin passes away or loses the decisive war against Ukraine in the near future once a cease fire is called on this one . Same issues as China. Russia's ruled by Putin & the Siloviki. It narrowly escaped such a fate on Yeltsin's demitting office coz the transition of power to Putin was smooth . Besides Putin immediately consolidated his hold over the state apparatus & got his key men in. His successor in case he anoints one won't be so lucky.

 

[Jaymax]

While there is zero chance the US will not intervene in Taiwan, there is a high risk it will lose its stomach within a few weeks.

China has for most part built up its industrial strength to the point where the US can no longer operate under the guarantee of technological superiority. This puts the US in a point where a weak leader might fold instead of taking the long hard road of Total War.

Unrestricted infiltration of the US has gone on for so long, Chinese commentators boast about being able to field sabotage teams across the US. This will cause the US to tie down significant resources to secure its own country while also maintaining its posture abroad.

With advances in their space program, the Chinese can now force the US into accepting a detente on space warfare - else both sides work blind with no satellites and have to deal with insane amounts of space debris for decades to come.

If things come to conventional warfare, USAF concedes Chinese advances in air defense mean they can no longer guarantee their tier 1 stealth fighters can move unmolested. Even a short air campaign can put a noticeable dent in the USAF inventory.

Its similar for its Navy's carriers - China can deny them entry into areas unless they want to risk attacks by swarms of drones, carrier killer missiles. China will happily trade its arsenal of drones to exhaust/overwhelm the carrier defense systems if it can score a supercarrier. This is a feat even fiction writers deem unfeasible. If China scores a carrier the impact will be felt quickly across the globe.

The US financial health is worse than a Delhi resident's gut health after the winter wedding season. It can ill afford an arms build up to replace losses a war with China would impose. The Chinese on the other hand with their much tighter control on all aspects of their society are better prepared to absorb economic pain, suppress civil dissent in a conflict situation. In this aspect with its tight control on media, even a few wins will net a PR windfall allowing the regime to ride out a short war.

TLDR - US under Trump does not have the stomach or the wallet for a big fight.

Caveat - If carrot top is booted out and the US digs in, all bets are off.

Short conflict - advantage China, the longer the war drags the quicker Chinese strengths erode.


*** On India - China ***

@_Anonymous_ - China does not want to create a big mess with India even more so now when its getting shut out of the US market. They need India as a market.

But in case they do come for India, my opinion like previously mentioned stays that it will be a short and rapid conflict fought in multiple dimensions.

Chinese leadership views India as (forgive me) a boisterous and loudmouthed neighbor who does not have the strength to back up its threats. Their India campaign will focus on rapid blows each aimed with precision. Hit power generation, communication, banking, Internet - basically bring the country to a halt while their army tries to secure specific objectives rather than sweeping territorial gains.

India's options in this regard remain limited. We are dependent on imports on practically all our major systems with a few exceptions. Its the same in munitions. The impact is clear - Chinese can replace their losses much easier than we can. Western Aid will be few and far in between now that the US has made it clear it doesn't want to fund long foreign wars and the EU is basically holding the bag for the Ukraine war.

Trump's Ukraine response shows West's blank cheques are not infinite. The same message I had tried to convey to your dear Rice / Irish themed friend but back then he was like a teen girl in love, writing long odysseys proclaiming his unrequited love for the west on heart shaped heavily perfumed pink stationery.

On the Nuclear front, in today's context its as likely to happen as it is for Salman Khan to deliver a movie that makes sense and has good production values.

Chinese writings from the last decade suggested that in case the shit goes south well enough for a strategic response, they will go after Mumbai first for its BARC, DRDO, Navy installations and due to Mumbai being the financial capital followed by New Delhi and Kolkata (to paralyze India in the North East). Other targets might be the industrial cluster of Chennai and the IT hub of Bangalore for their economic value.

India's response will likely be to solve Beijing and Shanghai's parking troubles and also rezone most of the coastal industrial belt to flatlands and also consider taking the Three Gorges Damn which will likely cause the CCP to go apeshit but they will have their hands full for a very long time. A kind of final FU from India before the inevitable Chinese counter strike.

But for now this remains an academic exercise. For China, India is an annoying pest kept in check by propping up the pork hating cousin chasers but a necessary evil as a destination for Chinese goods. A (in their eyes) minor hiccup in Galwan disrupted trade long enough, a serious conflict will shut down the Indian market to China for years to come.

 

[randomradio]

Is there some kinda comprehension problem? The US will intervene in Taiwan, but the Chinese believe they can take Taiwan before the US can intervene.

Their plan is to encircle the island, establish air superiority, cut off SLOC, invade and create a lodgment in a week. Once a lodgment is created, the Chinese would enter the island in numbers large enough to render an island defense plan moot.

But Ukraine has shown that Taiwan will also be able to defend itself long enough for the US to break the encirclement and retake air superiority. Hence the reorientation towards ground forces in Taiwan. In Ukraine, IADS has also proven to be effective.

It's like I'm talking to a baby. Can't even understand elementary aspects of these things. Such a load of crap.

 

[Rajput Lion]

It's not just US but Japan too. The Independence of Taiwan remain vital for them. Taiwan is a place which both US & Japan can't loose. They'll fight(and hopefully defang the dragon).

 

[randomradio]

While there is zero chance the US will not intervene in Taiwan, there is a high risk it will lose its stomach within a few weeks.

Most casualties will be among the Taiwanese, not the Americans. Any real American involvement on the ground will require weeks of fighting before their arrival.

Plus while the Chinese are expecting to get things done before America can intervene, the Americans must be thinking of taking out vital Chinese civilian and military infrastructure and force a retreat before things get nasty on the ground.

Public perception of arrival of bodies is overblown. It takes a long period of consistent arrivals for the shock to sustain after the initial period. That's why it's been a problem for multi-year or decade-long wars, not for short ones.

China has for most part built up its industrial strength to the point where the US can no longer operate under the guarantee of technological superiority. This puts the US in a point where a weak leader might fold instead of taking the long hard road of Total War.

Unrestricted infiltration of the US has gone on for so long, Chinese commentators boast about being able to field sabotage teams across the US. This will cause the US to tie down significant resources to secure its own country while also maintaining its posture abroad.

With advances in their space program, the Chinese can now force the US into accepting a detente on space warfare - else both sides work blind with no satellites and have to deal with insane amounts of space debris for decades to come.

If things come to conventional warfare, USAF concedes Chinese advances in air defense mean they can no longer guarantee their tier 1 stealth fighters can move unmolested. Even a short air campaign can put a noticeable dent in the USAF inventory.

Its similar for its Navy's carriers - China can deny them entry into areas unless they want to risk attacks by swarms of drones, carrier killer missiles. China will happily trade its arsenal of drones to exhaust/overwhelm the carrier defense systems if it can score a supercarrier. This is a feat even fiction writers deem unfeasible. If China scores a carrier the impact will be felt quickly across the globe.

The Chinese are still 10-15 years away from accomplishing these things. While the Chinese seem to have caught up in many areas, time is still required to accumulate all the technology and gain experience.

For example, the Chinese are building 200+ fighters a year, but are also recruiting 300 pilots for the job, and they need at least 7 years to move up the ladder before they are ready to fight the Americans. Which means the best pilots they have today for a fight in 2028 are the ones recruited between 2015-20, and that's peanuts relative to where the US and Japan are.

Same story when it comes to the PLAN, most of their ships are new, they lack the experience necessary for peak efficiency. The oldest Type 055 captain today has just 5 years of experience, whereas USN ships are in their third generation of captains and crews.

The US can also absorb more losses than the Chinese while simultaneously generating a higher kill ratio.

The US financial health is worse than a Delhi resident's gut health after the winter wedding season. It can ill afford an arms build up to replace losses a war with China would impose. The Chinese on the other hand with their much tighter control on all aspects of their society are better prepared to absorb economic pain, suppress civil dissent in a conflict situation. In this aspect with its tight control on media, even a few wins will net a PR windfall allowing the regime to ride out a short war.

TLDR - US under Trump does not have the stomach or the wallet for a big fight.

Caveat - If carrot top is booted out and the US digs in, all bets are off.

Short conflict - advantage China, the longer the war drags the quicker Chinese strengths erode.

Material losses are not a lot even if they lose half their equipment during the war. The bill will appear to be big, but it's like a $100B in additional spending for 10 years or so. For example, losing 500 F-35s would cost $40B to replace. 100 C-17s is $20B. 50 AB class ships would cost $200B. 10 SSNs would cost $50B. A carrier and its air wing would cost $15B.

And many of these are designed for personnel to survive, so an air and naval war will not lose as many trained personnel relative to material losses.

Chinese control over their society is decent, but CCP control over itself is much more fragile than American society. CCP isn't a monolith, it's a fragmented system that can easily buckle under pressure. They have their own hawks and doves, traditional and modern, and miitary and civilian schisms that can be exploited.

*** On India - China ***

@_Anonymous_ - China does not want to create a big mess with India even more so now when its getting shut out of the US market. They need India as a market.

But in case they do come for India, my opinion like previously mentioned stays that it will be a short and rapid conflict fought in multiple dimensions.

Chinese leadership views India as (forgive me) a boisterous and loudmouthed neighbor who does not have the strength to back up its threats. Their India campaign will focus on rapid blows each aimed with precision. Hit power generation, communication, banking, Internet - basically bring the country to a halt while their army tries to secure specific objectives rather than sweeping territorial gains.

India's options in this regard remain limited. We are dependent on imports on practically all our major systems with a few exceptions. Its the same in munitions. The impact is clear - Chinese can replace their losses much easier than we can. Western Aid will be few and far in between now that the US has made it clear it doesn't want to fund long foreign wars and the EU is basically holding the bag for the Ukraine war.

Trump's Ukraine response shows West's blank cheques are not infinite. The same message I had tried to convey to your dear Rice / Irish themed friend but back then he was like a teen girl in love, writing long odysseys proclaiming his unrequited love for the west on heart shaped heavily perfumed pink stationery.

On the Nuclear front, in today's context its as likely to happen as it is for Salman Khan to deliver a movie that makes sense and has good production values.

Chinese writings from the last decade suggested that in case the shit goes south well enough for a strategic response, they will go after Mumbai first for its BARC, DRDO, Navy installations and due to Mumbai being the financial capital followed by New Delhi and Kolkata (to paralyze India in the North East). Other targets might be the industrial cluster of Chennai and the IT hub of Bangalore for their economic value.

India's response will likely be to solve Beijing and Shanghai's parking troubles and also rezone most of the coastal industrial belt to flatlands and also consider taking the Three Gorges Damn which will likely cause the CCP to go apeshit but they will have their hands full for a very long time. A kind of final FU from India before the inevitable Chinese counter strike.

But for now this remains an academic exercise. For China, India is an annoying pest kept in check by propping up the pork hating cousin chasers but a necessary evil as a destination for Chinese goods. A (in their eyes) minor hiccup in Galwan disrupted trade long enough, a serious conflict will shut down the Indian market to China for years to come.

Won't come to pass anytime soon. The Chinese push for a thaw in the relationship already establishes that fact. Got bigger fish to fry I suppose.

They do not have the ability to dislodge the IA from their perch at the moment. Ukraine's shown that the Himalayas are defensible. Their overreliance on vehicles in Tibet and air power has turned out to be a bad idea and changing gears now is a decade-long effort.

A nuclear war between the two is the least likely among all nuclear wars possible around the world. Largely because it's pointless. If nukes are used, it will be out of spite rather than a means to achieve strategic objectives.

 

[randomradio]

It's not just US but Japan too. The Independence of Taiwan remain vital for them. Taiwan is a place which both US & Japan can't loose. They'll fight(and hopefully defang the dragon).

Yeah, Japan has no choice here. Even if the US backs out, they gotta step in on their own. But the loss in trust will be quite catastrophic for the US. We already see the impact of their reception of the trade war.

Too bad Japan did not invest more on their military right after China began its modernization. Whatever they have today is inadequate for solo ops, they have neither the numbers nor the technology.