[LaCroix 23.02.24]
After the first contracts signed in the autumn, Paris is confirming its military partnership with Yerevan with the visit of the Minister of the Armed Forces to Armenia on Friday 23 February. The Elysée Palace wanted this rapprochement to break with the mediating stance that France has maintained in the Caucasus since the fall of the Soviet Union.
There are more comfortable ways to travel to Armenia than an A400M Atlas. But the symbolism is there, one more after the WW2 Armenian resistance fighter Missak Manouchian was inducted into the Panthéon the day before. On Thursday evening, French Defence Minister Sébastien Lecornu landed in Yerevan on board an A400M military transport plane carrying night vision goggles and a procession of defence industry representatives for an official visit, the first ever for a resident of the Hôtel de Brienne. It was a way of embodying the no less unprecedented rapprochement begun in recent months by France and Armenia on the military front, which resulted on Friday 23 February in the signing of new arms contracts and cooperation agreements.
For Paris, this is a response to Azerbaijan's aggressiveness, which has carried out attacks on Armenia's sovereign territory and is keeping a lid on future ambitions to conquer its neighbour's territory. Yerevan accuses Baku of preparing for an "all-out war", which Azerbaijan denies. "Recent incidents in the Armenian region of Syounik [or « Zangezur corridor »] show that the risk of escalation on the ground remains real", says Emmanuel Macron. France's vigilance over Armenia's territorial integrity is all the more appreciated by Yerevan as its relations with Moscow, long its main security guarantor, are at an all-time low.
A turning point for French diplomacy
This military partnership marks a turning point for French diplomacy in the Caucasus. Despite longstanding sympathies for Armenia, France has long maintained a position of neutrality between Armenia and Azerbaijan, which have been engaged in a territorial dispute for decades over control of the mountainous region of Nagorno-Karabakh. This position is linked to France's co-presidency of the Minsk Group, which aims to bring about a peaceful settlement to the conflict. "The whole Franco-Armenian bilateral relationship has been held back by this, even in the cultural sphere," laments an Armenian diplomatic source.
This position was shaken up by the resumption of hostilities. In the fall of 2020, Azerbaijan inflicted a heavy defeat on Armenia and recaptured large parts of Nagorno-Karabakh. But it is above all the rise in Azerbaijani attacks against the sovereign territory of Armenia in 2022 that alarms France. “From there, the French general staff understood that the situation had changed,” confirms this same Armenian source. And the invasion of Ukraine signed the death certificate of the Minsk group. » The platform loses all reason for its existence in September 2023, when Azerbaijan regains control of Nagorno-Karabakh by force, pushing its 100,000 Armenian inhabitants into exodus.
A rapid rapprochement between France and Yerevan on the military field then begins. Visiting Armenia on October 3, Catherine Colonna, then Minister of Foreign Affairs, announced that Paris had “given its agreement” to the delivery of military equipment to Armenia.
On October 23, Sébastien Lecornu announced the first contracts in Paris: 50 Bastion armored and combat vehicles from the Arquus company, three GM-200 air surveillance radars built by Thalès, and Mistral anti-aircraft missiles from the MBDA group. Speed due to the milestones set in previous months, including the
opening in January 2023 of a defense mission in Yerevan, but also prior contacts between French defense industrialists and Armenia, according to an Arquus executive contacted by
La Croix.
A rapprochement sought by the Elysée Palace
At the end of November, the announcement materialised when a photo of the first 24 Bastion vehicles appeared, in transit by rail via Georgia. The image, obtained by the Georgian media, embarrassed Tbilisi, which was not keen to alienate Azerbaijan. "We have made it clear to our French partners that this must not happen again", says a Georgian diplomat. This diplomat also expressed concern that these deliveries of military equipment would put off the prospect of a settlement of the Armenian-Azerbaijani conflict under Western aegis, a hypothesis favoured by Tbilisi.
Azerbaijan was quick to make its discontent known. "If new confrontations break out in the region, France will be responsible", Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev fulminated on 7 October. Since then, tensions between Paris and Baku have multiplied. The strengthening of security ties between France and Armenia is also frowned upon by Moscow, which is reproached by Armenia for its passivity in the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict.
In Paris, this rapprochement desired by the Élysée also raised some concerns within French diplomacy, with some fearing that this policy would contribute to increasing tensions in the region. “This desire comes from the president. Behind, it follows, but without enthusiasm,” assures an Armenian participant in discussions with the Quai d’Orsay, according to whom France, with Emmanuel Macron, has become “more pro-Armenian than Armenia”.
A partnership set to last
To defuse these fears, Paris insists on the “defensive” attribute of the materials delivered. “It is enough that we do not attack you so that these weapons are not used,” declared Sébastien Lecornu at the end of October. “The executive is distancing itself from Azerbaijan, we are not going to add another layer by saying that it is offensive material,” explains Hélène Conway-Mouret, vice-president of the Foreign Affairs and Defense Committee in the Senate. But the Armenians use them as they want. » In a report for opinion on the Finance Bill for 2024, of which she is the co-rapporteur, this offensive-defensive distinction is also described as “not very operational” on the ground. Bastion vehicles, for example, are used to transport troops and can be used in support of a hypothetical offensive.
The military partnership between Armenia and France is in any case set to continue. Arriving in post in January, a French defense attaché in Armenia will serve as a transmission link between Paris and Yerevan. On Friday February 23, Armenia signed a contract for the acquisition of [
Hécate] precision rifles with the French company PGM. In addition to short-range
Mistral anti-aircraft missiles,
the supply of medium- and long-range anti-aircraft missiles is also possible, said Sébastien Lecornu.
And after ? According to an Armenian source, requests concerning CAESAR cannons
* were also made by Armenia during Catherine Colonna's visit in October, and raised again in mid-February during a meeting between the Armenian defense minister and the French ambassador to Armenia. In their report for opinion published in November, senators Hélène Conway-Mouret and Hugues Saury recommended studying the delivery of these powerful artillery systems to Armenia as soon as possible. “Nothing concrete at this stage,” says the Ministry of Defense for the moment.
/end
* The Armenians finally opted for your MArG 155-BR, as I understand it. Good choice, congrats