For the time being, there's no point in launching any form of overt intervention - regardless of how bad the law & order situation becomes in Bangladesh.
An exodus of refugees is to be expected. We should let in the persecuted minorities (Hindus, Christians etc) where there is plausible reason to say that their lives are in danger because of their identity. Those merely taking the opportunity to migrate for economic reasons or otherwise not fleeing persecution must not be let in. Either turn them back or detain & send back after ascertaining identities.
Might as well use the opportunity to detain illegal BD immigrants across the board who got in way before and process them as fresh illegals as now there is plausible cause for restraining mass immigration.
Strategically, I think we need to let the situation develop further. We have a lot of cards to play.
In the meantime, there are economic opportunities to be had. Textiles & basic manufacturing (fridges, ACs etc) were the lifeblood of BD's economic output, along with the preferential trade with India. We were allowing them to export a lot of stuff to us. Not to mention, Indian capital & entrepreneurs were the disproportionate force behind a lot of that.
"Around 25 per cent of the units in Bangladesh are owned by Indians. They include companies like Shahi Exports, House of Pearl Fashions, Jay Jay Mills, TCNS, Gokaldas Images, and Ambattur Clothing"
A lot of that will be going away. There will be capital flight from institutional investors as well due to deteriorating law & order. Credit will become harder to come by. Getting these units to India will allow us to provide jobs to a lot of unskilled labour in our country as well - plugging some of the holes that are increasingly becoming a danger for the BJP's vote base.
The Bangladeshi economic miracle that led them to outpace & outgrow even the much larger population of Pakistan is now pretty much over. It's downhill for that country from here on.
Even a new Khaleda Zia govt will find it very difficult to maintain control over a population that experiences a sustained economic decline. That will open up opportunities for us as well. The anger in BD against Hasina was built up despite India pulling out all stops to allow Bangladesh to get the highly preferential trade access to India's consumer market.
If we choose to revoke it, Zia (or anyone else we don't want) won't last very long either. And that's not even counting any active measures we might choose to take.
We maintain relations with the Myanmar junta still, we can choose to put pressure via that front as well.
Either way, I'd say it's in our best interest for the time being to keep the pot boiling, without necessarily committing forces overtly. If for no other reason, then simply to make it difficult for any regime in Dhaka to get into any kind of strategic agreements with out of area powers that might seek to change the security status quo in the region by way of basing forces or otherwise. Let it be US or China.
