Chabahar Port and India-Iran Relations

[RISING SUN]

India's top bank to stop handling Iran oil payments: Refiner
India's imports of Iranian oil may be hit from end-August after the State Bank of India informed refiners it will not handle payments for crude from Tehran from November onwards, the finance chief of Indian Oil Corp (IOC) said on Friday.

The move by the state-controlled bank, India's biggest, comes after U.S. President Donald Trump pulled out of an international nuclear deal with Iran last month, pledging to reimpose tough sanctions within 180 days.

"(Oil) loading will be affected from end-August under the current mechanism unless a new payment route is established," IOC's A.K. Sharma told Reuters in a telephone interview.

Although New Delhi had cut imports from Tehran in 2017/18 due to a dispute over a giant gas field, Iran remained its third-biggest oil supplier. Iran supplied about 458,000 barrels per day (bpd), or about a tenth of India's more than 4.5 million bpd of imports, in the fiscal year to March 2018.

IOC previously said it would look at buying oil from traditional suppliers mostly in the Middle East to compensate for any cut in supplies from Iran related to U.S. sanctions.

SBI didn't immediately respond to requests for comment.

India's refiners currently use SBI and Germany-based Europaeisch-Iranische Handelsbank AG (EIH) to buy Iranian oil in euros, according to IOC and other companies.

Mumbai-based refiner Reliance Industries Ltd, owner of the world's biggest refining complex, plans to halt oil imports from Iran, while Rosneft-promoted Nayara Energy has started cutting purchases from this month, sources previously told Reuters.

India, Iran's top oil client after China, was one of the few nations that continued to trade with Tehran during a previous round of Western sanctions.

The South Asian nation has said it does not follow U.S. sanctions, but companies and banks with links to the U.S. financial system could face penalties if they do not comply.

Some sanctions take effect after a 90-day "wind-down" period ending on Aug. 6, and the rest, notably affecting the petroleum sector, after a 180-day period ending on Nov. 4.

Iran offers Indian refiners a 60-day credit period on oil sales, which means payment for cargoes loaded from end-August will be due in November.

More Discounts?
Analysts feel Iran may have to offer more incentives to protect its oil sales to India.


"Indians may ask Iran for more discount in exchange for early payment for oil purchases instead of a 60-day credit period," said Sri Paravaikkarasu, head of East of Suez Oil at consultancy FGE.

Indian state-refiners previously drew up plans to almost double oil imports from Iran, which had offered deep discounts on shipping of crude.

IOC was aiming to lift as much as 180,000 bpd from Iran in 2018/19.

Seeking to safeguard oil imports from Iran and scout for alternate payment avenues, an Indian delegation last week visited officials and bankers in France, Germany, Britain and the European Union's Brussels base.

"That visit was only exploratory in nature ...we are still watching the situation," India's oil minister Dharmendra Pradhan told Reuters earlier this week.

As well as banks, shipping firms and insurance companies have already begun distancing themselves from Iran.

IOC's Sharma said his firm received very few responses to inquiries on hiring tankers to import Iranian oil.

"Only NITC (National Iranian Oil Company) and a few others participated, " he said, adding freight rates for transportation of Iranian oil have also gone up due to the threat of sanctions.

India's top bank to stop handling Iran oil payments: Refiner

 

[RISING SUN]

Despite threats from US, India plans to open Chabahar port by 2019
India is trying to make the strategic Chabahar Port in Iran operational by 2019, Union Minister Nitin Gadkari has said in Dushanbe, Tajikistan.

Gadkari was on a two-day visit to Tajikistan to represent India at a global conference on "International Decade for Action: Water for Sustainable Development".

"...India is trying to make Chabahar Port in Iran operational by 2019... opening up of the Chabahar Port would make the CIS countries more accessible," the shipping minister said in a statement here today.

Gadkari was addressing the Indian Community at the inauguration of the Swami Vivekananda Cultural Centre at the Indian Embassy in Dushanbe.

The statement said the minister also spoke at length about the efforts and initiatives taken by the NDA government in the last four years, and about the massive work being done in the infrastructure sector, with national highways being built at an unprecedented pace of 28km/day.

"India's image and respect has grown across the world in the last four years and our rankings have improved globally on various parameters like ease of doing business, cleanliness etc," the statement said quoting Gadkari.

It said the minister held wide-ranging talks with Sirodjidin Muhridin, Foreign Minister of Tajikistan and the two leaders underlined the need to give further impetus to the ongoing bilateral cooperation in various fields and agreed to enhance mutual cooperation in the area of sustainable water development.
Despite threats from US, India plans to open Chabahar port by 2019

 

[Himanshu]

US says import of Iranian oil sanctionable from Nov 4; India may get relief
"There will be a handful of countries that come to the US and ask for relief from that. We'll consider it," Pompeo said in an indication that the Trump Administration is willing to show some flexibility to countries like India.

India's Oil Imports from Iran Fall by 15.9% in June
India’s oil imports from Iran declined by 15.9% in June, the first month after the US said it would reimpose sanctions on the country, according to data from shipping and industry sources. In June, India imported 592,800 barrels per day (bpd) of oil from Iran compared to 705,200 bpd in May, the data showed. The sources declined to be identified.

Iran Slams India For Not Making Promised Investments In Chabahar Port
Iran on Tuesday criticised India for not fulfilling its promise of making investments in expansion of the strategically located Chabahar port and said New Delhi will stand to lose “special privileges” if it cuts import of Iranian oil.

Iran’s Deputy Ambassador and Charge d’Affaires Massoud Rezvanian Rahaghi said Iran will end the privileges being provided to India if it tries to source oil from countries like Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, the US and others to offset cuts in Iranian oil.

“It is unfortunate that Indian investment promises for expansion of Chabahar port and its connectivity projects have not been accomplished so far. It is expected that India takes immediate necessary measures in this regard if its cooperation and engagement in Chabahar port is of strategic nature,” he said.

Mr Rahaghi was speaking at a seminar on ’emerging challenges and opportunities in the global diplomacy and its impact on bilateral ties with India’.

Referring to US sanctions on oil import from Iran, Mr Rahaghi said his country has been a reliable energy partner for India and that Iran always follows a “rationale pricing” of oil which ensures the interest of both consumers and suppliers.

“… If India were to replace Iran with countries like Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, the US and others for the 10 per cent of its oil demand then it may have to revert to dollar-denominated imports which mean higher CAD (Current Account Deficit) and deprivation of all other privileges Iran has offered to India,” Mr Rahaghi said.

The senior Iranian diplomat said it was important to work together to immunise the relationship between the two countries through adoption of necessary instruments and mechanisms.

“We should strive to make this relationship more sustainable and durable. This requires a strong political determination,” he said, adding both sides should set up banking relations, open new transaction routes and help each other’s markets and business communities.

Iran is India’s third-largest oil supplier after Iraq and Saudi Arabia. Iran supplied 18.4 million tonnes of crude oil between April 2017 and January 2018 (first 10 months of fiscal 2017-18).

The US has told India and other countries to cut oil imports from Iran to “zero” by November 4 or face sanctions. The Trump administration brought back sanctions against Iran after pulling out the US from the Iran nuclear deal.

Shipping to Iran and ports in the country are also coming under the US sanctions.

India is also expected to convey to the US the importance of the Chabahar port project considering that it can be a major link for trade with war-ravaged Afghanistan.

“In such a selfish approach, the US is targeting the whole world — either to be its friends and allies or be rival. So the US must abandon its policy of resorting to threats or use of force,” said Mr Rahaghi.

In May, President Donald Trump announced that the US was withdrawing from the Iran nuclear deal signed by the Obama administration in 2015, under which Tehran had agreed to limit its sensitive nuclear activities and allow international inspectors in return for lifting of crippling economic sanctions.Mr Rahaghi also suggested that a regional dialogue forum should be set up in the Persian Gulf and West Asia to resolve regional crises.

 

[BlackOpsIndia]

US says import of Iranian oil sanctionable from Nov 4; India may get relief
"There will be a handful of countries that come to the US and ask for relief from that. We'll consider it," Pompeo said in an indication that the Trump Administration is willing to show some flexibility to countries like India.

India's Oil Imports from Iran Fall by 15.9% in June
India’s oil imports from Iran declined by 15.9% in June, the first month after the US said it would reimpose sanctions on the country, according to data from shipping and industry sources. In June, India imported 592,800 barrels per day (bpd) of oil from Iran compared to 705,200 bpd in May, the data showed. The sources declined to be identified.

Iran Slams India For Not Making Promised Investments In Chabahar Port
Iran on Tuesday criticised India for not fulfilling its promise of making investments in expansion of the strategically located Chabahar port and said New Delhi will stand to lose “special privileges” if it cuts import of Iranian oil.

Iran’s Deputy Ambassador and Charge d’Affaires Massoud Rezvanian Rahaghi said Iran will end the privileges being provided to India if it tries to source oil from countries like Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, the US and others to offset cuts in Iranian oil.

“It is unfortunate that Indian investment promises for expansion of Chabahar port and its connectivity projects have not been accomplished so far. It is expected that India takes immediate necessary measures in this regard if its cooperation and engagement in Chabahar port is of strategic nature,” he said.

Mr Rahaghi was speaking at a seminar on ’emerging challenges and opportunities in the global diplomacy and its impact on bilateral ties with India’.

Referring to US sanctions on oil import from Iran, Mr Rahaghi said his country has been a reliable energy partner for India and that Iran always follows a “rationale pricing” of oil which ensures the interest of both consumers and suppliers.

“… If India were to replace Iran with countries like Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, the US and others for the 10 per cent of its oil demand then it may have to revert to dollar-denominated imports which mean higher CAD (Current Account Deficit) and deprivation of all other privileges Iran has offered to India,” Mr Rahaghi said.

The senior Iranian diplomat said it was important to work together to immunise the relationship between the two countries through adoption of necessary instruments and mechanisms.

“We should strive to make this relationship more sustainable and durable. This requires a strong political determination,” he said, adding both sides should set up banking relations, open new transaction routes and help each other’s markets and business communities.

Iran is India’s third-largest oil supplier after Iraq and Saudi Arabia. Iran supplied 18.4 million tonnes of crude oil between April 2017 and January 2018 (first 10 months of fiscal 2017-18).

The US has told India and other countries to cut oil imports from Iran to “zero” by November 4 or face sanctions. The Trump administration brought back sanctions against Iran after pulling out the US from the Iran nuclear deal.

Shipping to Iran and ports in the country are also coming under the US sanctions.

India is also expected to convey to the US the importance of the Chabahar port project considering that it can be a major link for trade with war-ravaged Afghanistan.

“In such a selfish approach, the US is targeting the whole world — either to be its friends and allies or be rival. So the US must abandon its policy of resorting to threats or use of force,” said Mr Rahaghi.

In May, President Donald Trump announced that the US was withdrawing from the Iran nuclear deal signed by the Obama administration in 2015, under which Tehran had agreed to limit its sensitive nuclear activities and allow international inspectors in return for lifting of crippling economic sanctions.Mr Rahaghi also suggested that a regional dialogue forum should be set up in the Persian Gulf and West Asia to resolve regional crises.

Threatening the countries having sympathy for you and trying to integrate you in the rules based order even by paying from it from own pocket is not the wiser strategy.

It was hard work of China and India that helped Iran to get a deal with west. India kept importing Iran oil even when US was against it and we paid for it at few places. If Iran think they somehow helped us during sanctions they are being delusional. Despite our best efforts the very first thing did after sanctions was to offer Chabahar to others as others can invest now and also the oil field. Not just that their mullah in charge can't keep it's mouth shut and somehow thought they can take away Kashmir from us. Not to mention the whole Kul bhushan episode, even when he was abducted from Iran they kept their mouth shut effectively hurting Indian case.

The same Pakistan which historically helped US forces to spy on Iran and hurting Iran financially by dodging IP pipeline and other pipelines hurting gas exports of Iran was assisted time and again by Iran.

Now get ready Pak will again sell some base in Baloochistan to US army and they will whip your *censored* as every Iran hater is occupying top postion in white house and saner people like Kelly and Mattis will be ousted soon. In these dark times you want to threaten India! be my guest.

 

[_Anonymous_]

Govt Gives Nod To Iran Bank In Mumbai Before U.S. Sanctions | Indian Defence News

 

[Ashwin]

There were a lot of problems as the Iranians kept changing the terms of the agreement: former Foreign Secretary
A major reason for delay in execution of the Chabahar port project is due to delays from the Iranian side, said former Foreign Secretary S. Jaishankar in his first comments since stepping down from the post in January.

“In the case of Chabahar, I know we always like to beat up on ourselves. But to be very honest a lot of the problems were because the Iranians kept changing the terms of the agreement. I mean they changed it in very fundamental ways at least about three times in the last three years,” Dr. Jaishankar said while delivering the ‘Jasjit Singh memorial lecture on national security’ organised by the Centre for Air Power Studies.

Dr. Jaishankar who is now the President, Global Corporate Affairs of the Tata group, was talking about the changes in the Indian foreign policy of which he said the major change over the last 3-4 years was project execution. The other changes according to him are financing and delegation of powers.


Gateway to Afghanistan

India which sees Chabahar’s Shahid Beheshti port as a gateway to Afghanistan and Central Asia, has committed $85 million on the current phase of construction, and a total of $500 million on the project.

On the delay in execution of projects by India in many countries, Dr. Jaishankar said often “the conceptualisation of projects had been flawed.”

“If you look at where our projects haven’t done well, these are hardworking environments,” he said giving the example of Myanmar, where India is implementing the Kaladan multimodal transit transport project. Despite looming U.S. sanctions over oil imports from Iran, India has expressed confidence that the project would be operational by 2019.

Chabahar port project delayed due to Iran: Jaishankar

 

[randomradio]

Iran is far more docile under sanctions.

 

[RISING SUN]

Iran’s road minister sets off for India to attend Move summit
TEHRAN, Sep. 06 (MNA) – Iranian Minister of Roads and Urban Development Abbas Akhoundi, heading a delegation, has departed for India to take part in a summit dedicated to promotion of electric vehicles and shared mobility.

While in New Delhi, the Iranian minister is scheduled to hold talks with relevant Indian officials and ministers, and deliver a speech at the first Move summit hosted by the south Asian country on 7th and 8th September 2018.

Akhoundi is accompanied by officials from the international affairs department of the Ministry of Roads and Urban Development, Islamic Republic of Iran Railways, and Ports and Maritime Organization of Iran.

According to his schedule, Akhoundi will hold meetings with Indian ministers of shipping, commerce, and railways on the sidelines of the summit.

The Move summit 2018 is the first global mobility summit hosted by India on 7th and 8th September, gathering stakeholders from across the sectors of mobility and transportation to “co-create a public interest framework to revolutionize transport.”

The summit will be inaugurated by Prime Minister Narendra Modi on Friday. According to Indian media, the event will focus on promotion of electric vehicles and shared mobility, reinventing public transport, goods transport, logistics, and data analytics.
Iran’s road minister sets off for India to attend Move summit

 

[Ashwin]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1044425407863255040

 

[BlackOpsIndia]

While US is getting isolated and Iran sanctions becoming useless after new payment system Saudi is loaning big to Pakistan for Saudi projects near Iran border. US admin high officials are highest degree Iran Hawks and after few months when Mattis is fired a new push for militancy will be made via Pak like good old times.

Imran is a blessing to India, NS didn't allowed Saudis to take control and create Shia Sunni war in Pak ever after being an old SA friend but this great man has made the deal with devil, sit back and enjoy as season of daily bomb attacks return to Pakistan. TTP too can take advantage of coming lawlessness and settle scores with PA.

@safriz how do u think this Saudi investment turn out?

 

[advaidhya]

While US is getting isolated and Iran sanctions becoming useless after new payment system Saudi is loaning big to Pakistan for Saudi projects near Iran border. US admin high officials are highest degree Iran Hawks and after few months when Mattis is fired a new push for militancy will be made via Pak like good old times.

Imran is a blessing to India, NS didn't allowed Saudis to take control and create Shia Sunni war in Pak ever after being an old SA friend but this great man has made the deal with devil, sit back and enjoy as season of daily bomb attacks return to Pakistan. TTP too can take advantage of coming lawlessness and settle scores with PA.

@safriz how do u think this Saudi investment turn out?

Nawaz did take help from Saudis. How else do you think the deficit of $15 billion was funded last year? The trade deficit of Pakistan is huge and even after remittance, there is a big deficit.

The army did not allow Nawaz to take decisions and finally jailed him. But once army's man is in power, the army realised that Pakistan has no choice but to side with KSA. USA sanctions on Iran made Pakistan distance from Iran. Unlike the past where army could simply make Nawaz the scape goat, now they have no choice. KSA even demanded Nawaz's release for their $10 billion grant.

The only difference now and in the past is that in the past Nawaz was doing hard work while army was arrogant. But now army has realised its position and hence forced to become humble

 

[safriz]

While US is getting isolated and Iran sanctions becoming useless after new payment system Saudi is loaning big to Pakistan for Saudi projects near Iran border. US admin high officials are highest degree Iran Hawks and after few months when Mattis is fired a new push for militancy will be made via Pak like good old times.

Imran is a blessing to India, NS didn't allowed Saudis to take control and create Shia Sunni war in Pak ever after being an old SA friend but this great man has made the deal with devil, sit back and enjoy as season of daily bomb attacks return to Pakistan. TTP too can take advantage of coming lawlessness and settle scores with PA.

@safriz how do u think this Saudi investment turn out?

Its another Saudi-Iranain regional conflict. India on Iran side and Pakistan on Saudi side.
It will all depend on our political government how they use the situation.
They messed up CPEC big time. I hope they don't make a mess of this new opportunity. It can be used very well or it can be another burden on Pakistan.#

 

[BlackOpsIndia]

Its another Saudi-Iranain regional conflict. India on Iran side and Pakistan on Saudi side.
It will all depend on our political government how they use the situation.
They messed up CPEC big time. I hope they don't make a mess of this new opportunity. It can be used very well or it can be another burden on Pakistan.#

You don't think that Saudi investment or Grant to Imran who opposed Yemen intervention comes without string attached? And what else can Saudi do but to target Iran and lead to revival of diffused Shia Sunni bloody conflict in Pakistan.

I think Pak relations with US will normalize in coming few days. Pak will ease violence in Afghanistan to give a face saving to US and coordinate to new theater of war i.e. Iran. Cheer up new aid is just around the corner, u successfully played the little insecure Trump.

 

[advaidhya]

You don't think that Saudi investment or Grant to Imran who opposed Yemen intervention comes without string attached? And what else can Saudi do but to target Iran and lead to revival of diffused Shia Sunni bloody conflict in Pakistan.

I think Pak relations with US will normalize in coming few days. Pak will ease violence in Afghanistan to give a face saving to US and coordinate to new theater of war i.e. Iran. Cheer up new aid is just around the corner, u successfully played the little insecure Trump.

This was the string attached in the deal in addition to release of Nawaz Sharif:

Dated: 20-09-2018

https://twitter.com/x/status/1042733544466989057

Dated: 21-09-2018
Pakistan will not allow anyone to attack Saudi Arabia: Imran

The rivalry with Iran is a power struggle and the intention is not to destroy Iran but to subjugate it. The deal with USA is for petrodollars and military assistance and nothing else. Neither KSA, Iran nor Pakistan like USA genuinely. It is only a transactional relation. USA helps GCC countries become leader of Islam, give military assistance and Iran will be subjugated and made second in leadership as a return favour for petrodollars offered by GCC. The relation ends with transactional actions only. Pakistan is helping Islamists in Afghanistan for its strategic interests of long term which is Islam. There is no question of assisting USA in anything strategic by anyone.

 

[Pundrick]

Its another Saudi-Iranain regional conflict. India on Iran side and Pakistan on Saudi side.
It will all depend on our political government how they use the situation.
They messed up CPEC big time. I hope they don't make a mess of this new opportunity. It can be used very well or it can be another burden on Pakistan.#

India is buying equal oil from both countries. I don't think KSA & Iran will think of India as an adversary or at least on the opposite side. India is very well balancing its relation in this shia-sunni battlefield. Its Pakistan which has to worry about it, they are asking for investment from KSA, it definitely has a price, either you fight for them or sell your interest to them any how they'll get the return.

This new opportunity you are talking about, I don't think it's an opportunity. This investment by KSA will have a price, a big price.

 

[BlackOpsIndia]

I think Pak relations with US will normalize in coming few days. Pak will ease violence in Afghanistan to give a face saving to US and coordinate to new theater of war i.e. Iran. Cheer up new aid is just around the corner, u successfully played the little insecure Trump.

Qureshi changes policy on Afridi ahead of Pompeo meeting

Must commend Pakistan, they successfully played Trump, they fooled him for long enough and now there is not much time to win in Afghanistan. I said this in starting, they are waiting that clown out.

Next election next president new peace efforts waste an year or so engage another year and voila there is not much time left for President to win this thing. Rinse, repeat, make money. Couldn't belive the largest military the biggest economy couldn't produce a single mind that can see thru this drama. Everyone, all of them biding time, making money and throwing Afghanistan one step closer to death. Amazing!

 

[BlackOpsIndia]

US admin high officials are highest degree Iran Hawks and after few months when Mattis is fired a new push for militancy will be made via Pak like good old times.

Been saying this from sometime, it's almost confirmed.

Trump says Mattis 'could be' leaving as US defence chief - Times of India

@_Anonymous_ see this, read this in continuation of my reply on other thread. Said this a few times earlier. This admin is crazy in real sense and nothing is off the table.

 

[_Anonymous_]

Been saying this from sometime, it's almost confirmed.

Trump says Mattis 'could be' leaving as US defence chief - Times of India

@_Anonymous_ see this, read this in continuation of my reply on other thread. Said this a few times earlier. This admin is crazy in real sense and nothing is off the table.

What's Mattis not being part of the administration got to do with the US increasing pressure on Iran or giving Pakistan a free pass on Afghanistan? Was Mattis a safety valve in either cases? Do you have some inside info. Please do share it

 

[BlackOpsIndia]

What's Mattis not being part of the administration got to do with the US increasing pressure on Iran or giving Pakistan a free pass on Afghanistan? Was Mattis a safety valve in either cases? Do you have some inside info. Please do share it

Mattis was only thing standing between the rabid dog Bolton and war with Iran. Not that Mattis is soft on Iran, he is anti Iran but don't want war with Iran but Bolton is nut case. He want to bomb Iran and not just in talks but in real, a direct conflict or should I say war. After he became NSA he started stacking administration with his handpicks all rabidly anti Iran Hawks. There was a simulation and assessment to attack Iran earlier this year and Mattis didn't approve. It was matter of time before he was thrown out. The least Bolton want is regime change and can influence Trump the way he want. Those protests in Iran and Mossad operation to raid the warehouse to get all nuclear related documents was not coincident. These idiots are out for blood. This all is in news, not in this form, but bits and bytes scattered, you just have to process and contect the dots over the time.

Bolton is also not supporter of throwing Pakistan under bus instead prefer using it, just like old Republicans. Trump Bolton is Nixon and Kissinger on steroids with even lesser IQ. In all probability Pak US relations will be smooth in coming time unless Bolton is sacked for making a comment against Trump. They are waiting for Pakistan to come to her senses and start following orders again. Pakistan is not target or priority now but doesn't mean it won't be after few years when other important matters are resolved.

P.S. I am not saying war with Iran is inevitable but simply telling you how things are shaping up, and they are not like usual ramblings of Hawks in US.

 

[_Anonymous_]

Mattis was only thing standing between the rabid dog Bolton and war with Iran. Not that Mattis is soft on Iran, he is anti Iran but don't want war with Iran but Bolton is nut case. He want to bomb Iran and not just in talks but in real, a direct conflict or should I say war. After he became NSA he started stacking administration with his handpicks all rabidly anti Iran Hawks. There was a simulation and assessment to attack Iran earlier this year and Mattis didn't approve. It was matter of time before he was thrown out. The least Bolton want is regime change and can influence Trump the way he want. Those protests in Iran and Mossad operation to raid the warehouse to get all nuclear related documents was not coincident. These idiots are out for blood. This all is in news, not in this form, but bits and bytes scattered, you just have to process and contect the dots over the time.

Bolton is also not supporter of throwing Pakistan under bus instead prefer using it, just like old Republicans. Trump Bolton is Nixon and Kissinger on steroids with even lesser IQ. In all probability Pak US relations will be smooth in coming time unless Bolton is sacked for making a comment against Trump. They are waiting for Pakistan to come to her senses and start following orders again. Pakistan is not target or priority now but doesn't mean it won't be after few years when other important matters are resolved.

P.S. I am not saying war with Iran is inevitable but simply telling you how things are shaping up, and they are not like usual ramblings of Hawks in US.

Let's give it a couple of years. This Jan, Trump will complete 2 years in office. By Jan 2021, we'd know if he'd be around for another 4 years . We'd also get to know what happens in NK, Af Pak, Iran, Russia, China etc w.r.t the US and to the rest of the world. Right now, things are in a state of flux. By 2021, hopefully they'd be clearer & we'd see the contours of a long term future model prediction crystallising.