Chinese Economy : Updates and Discussions

_Anonymous_ said:
There were comments in that thread on tweeter basically saying it was small change for China . Sort of a RST type batting for Chinese is the first thought that came to my mind .

Btw tagged you in the MMRCA thread #4544 . Would appreciate your insights into the matter if you can .
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$240B is not a small change for any country, particularly in the current economic scenario. However, this is just the beginning of these issues which have far more severe consequences.

1. China invested $1.5T in BRI. More NPAs are bound to pop up.
2. China's role as a loan shark is completely exposed and very few counties will dare to go for Chinese infrastructure projects in future. So BRI is practically dead.
3. What will China do with the huge capacity built up for steel (more than a billion tons per annum), cement, heavy manufacturing machinery etc as well as trained man power? One of the reason BRI was aggressively promoted was to use these additional capacity (which could not be consumed in domestic market). With BRI activities sowing down to great extent, it will have a direct impact on the growth numbers.

Get the pop corn and thumbs up and enjoy the "Great fall of China".

Car sales in China is down by 20% for Jan and Feb 2023.

www.wsj.com

Ford, GM Engage in China Price War as Car Sales Slump

The American auto makers join their rivals in giving discounts in China as economic uncertainty hurts demand for vehicles.
www.wsj.com www.wsj.com
 
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Optimist said:
Can you please stop just posting a URL. Twitter doesn't open on the page anymore. Can you at least post a sentence about it.
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Screenshot_20240105_172854.jpg

It opens at my end very well, seems to be issue with your terminal or browser.
 
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LX1111 said:
This is pure nonsense. The real factor should be the exchange rate against the dollar. The real reason is that the Fed is raising rates and the renminbi is falling relative to the dollar,
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True. It's due to the changes in exchange rate. But the article is focusing more on the great power competition between the two countries. So exchange rate difference is less of a concern for Russia, but for China it means there's less possibility of foreign investment, and falling exports doesn't help in the long run.
 
randomradio said:
True. It's due to the changes in exchange rate. But the article is focusing more on the great power competition between the two countries. So exchange rate difference is less of a concern for Russia, but for China it means there's less possibility of foreign investment, and falling exports doesn't help in the long run.
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If you often look at the exchange rate, you know that the Chinese yuan is exchanged for the US dollar. In the past 20 years, it has been hovering between 6 and 8. There hasn't been much change, as for Russia, the short-term demand for war will indeed drive economic development. But all your products will be put into the battlefield, this bottomless pit. He will not accumulate into the wealth of the country.
 
LX1111 said:
If you often look at the exchange rate, you know that the Chinese yuan is exchanged for the US dollar. In the past 20 years, it has been hovering between 6 and 8. There hasn't been much change, as for Russia, the short-term demand for war will indeed drive economic development. But all your products will be put into the battlefield, this bottomless pit. He will not accumulate into the wealth of the country.
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China's exchange rate is managed, so it's not that relevant. Govt income and job growth are more important. The problem with China is education is expensive and there's no universal healthcare. So people can't afford having families or falling sick, even if they have jobs.

Russia's military expenditure is not a lot for wartime, just 30% of govt expenditure. If they stop growing it beyond 10-12T rubles, then normal growth will reduce it to below 25% by 2030. And they don't have much govt debt, just 16%. They also have social security, free education and universal healthcare. So they are working with a different set of rules compared to China.
 
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