India is unlikely to import Shinkansen, or bullet, trains from Japan, seven years after the launch of the ambitious Mumbai-Ahmedabad High-Speed Rail (MAHSR) corridor project. Instead, New Delhi has opted for a Make-in-India approach, awarding the contract in September to the BEML Ltd-Medha Servo Drives joint venture that manufactures the Vande Bharat trains.
"Negotiations with the Japanese government are still underway to import Shinkansen trains. However, talks have slowed down significantly in the last six months," an official told
Moneycontrol. Both the governments are yet to arrive at a consensus regarding a price point for the Shinkansen trains and also on a definitive timeline to conduct test runs.
Though Minister for Railways Ashwini Vaishnaw, along with government officials, visited Japan in September to resolve the pending issues, talks remain inconclusive.
"Shinkansen trains' import to India is an expensive affair. Besides, their life-long maintenance will need to be carried out by Japanese companies. The maintenance will significantly add to the overall cost of the project," a second official said.
Despite these bottlenecks, Japan International Cooperation Agency (JICA) is still committed to fund Rs 59,396 crore for the project amid contours for the loan being renegotiated to ensure the completion of the ambitious joint venture (JV) is not delayed any further. Initially, the project, which was launched in 2017, was scheduled to be completed by December, 2023.
Emails sent to the Ministry of Railways remained unanswered till the time of the publication of the article.
Why did the negotiations break down?
The negotiations between the Indian and the Japanese government to procure Shinkansen trains have all but broken down over the price point to import them, inordinate delay in land acquisition and a change in technical norms of the JV.
The Japanese government felt that its Indian counterpart made the modifications to the track in order to reduce the cost of land acquisition.
"The Japanese government had requested the Indian authorities not to increase the elevated sections of the track. However, the plea was not adhered to," a retired former Railway board member told
Moneycontrol. He put the Japanese government's request in perspective. The request was made on the basis that creating elevated section of the track would be time-consuming. Besides, it could be a risky proposition, leading to a probable collision between the train and people and roving cattle.
Earlier, elevated portion of the track was planned to cover 144 kilometres (km), which is around 28 per cent of the total track. Later, as per the revised plan, around 90 per cent of the track will be elevated.
The first official said a reduction in the price of land acquisition was one of the key reasons behind the rise in the elevated section of the track, which further delayed the project. Talks between the government and the farmers broke down over the land acquisition price, compelling the authorities to make a change in the project norms.
What is the price of a Shinkansen train?
India was all set to import Shinkansen trains from Japan, as JICA remains steadfast in its committment to fund the project.
In November, 2022, the National High Speed Rail Corporation Ltd (NHSRCL) had floated a rolling stock tender for the supply of 24 Shinkansen trains, which is worth Rs 11,000 crore.
However, the Hitachi-Kawasaki consortium had delayed bidding for the Shinkansen trainsets twice last year.
In 2018, the estimated cost of a 10-coach bullet train was Rs 389 crore. The maximum speed of the train is over 300 km per hour (kmph). By 2023, this estimated supply cost had increased to Rs 460 crore per trainset, officials said.
Though the Japanese consortium did submit a bid to supply the trains earlier this year, the rail authorities expressed their reservations over the 'inflated' price point.
Tale of two different Bullet Trains
Timeline to produce, import and install a Shinkansen train
"Importing [Shinkansen] trains from Japan will need a definite timeline, including the availability of the prototype, followed by a test run and the delivery of a trainset at a reasonable price point," the first official said.
Japanese companies are likely to need up to 25 months to make the prototype and another six months to carry out a test run. The elaborate process will delay the launch of the project till the middle of 2027, while the government keen to launch it by 2026, the official added.
Though the NHSRCL is gearing up for phased commissioning of the 352-km-long Gujarat leg operational by August, 2027, Union Railway Minister Ashwini Vaishnaw had in March 2024 had has announced that the country's first bullet train service will be launched by 2026 between Ahmedabad and Mumbai.
The Surat-Bilimora section on the 508-km-long corridor between Mumbai and Ahmedabad might be operational by July-August, 2026, Vaishnaw had said.
Vaishnaw had also said that the bullet train project in India would have made more progress if the previous Maharashtra government, led by Uddhav Thackeray, had expedited the approval process. He had cited that once the Eknath Shinde-led government took office, permissions were granted within 10 days.
New Indian high speed trains
The Integral Coach Factory (ICF) invited a tender on September 5 to manufacture two chair-car high-speed trains. The stainless steel carbody trains will have a maximum speed of 280 kmph and an operational speed of 250 kmph. The last date for submission of the bid was September 19.
"Only BEML has submitted the bid to manufacture two eight-car trainsets, and the tender will be finalised in a week. Since it is a small order for just two trainsets, other rolling stock manufacturers were not keen to participate. Our target is to complete the manufacturing in the next two and a half years," Rao had said.
While the exact amount quoted by BEML-Medha Servo Drives is still unclear, it is likely in the range of Rs 200-Rs 250 crore per train. These trains will operate on the MAHSR corridor, which is being developed by the NHSRCL.
Medha will develop a propulsion system capable of 250 Kmph, while BEML will develop the carbody structure to withstand such speed. BEML-Medha is expected to hire a design consultant from Europe for the project.
The 508-km MAHSR will connect Mumbai, Maharashtra, with Ahmedabad, Gujarat, through 12 stations at an estimated cost of Rs. 1.1 lakh crore. Initially, Japanese Shinkansen E5 trains, capable of running at a maximum speed of 350 kmph, were planned to operate on the line with an operational speed of 320 kmph and an average speed of 250 kmph.
Timeline for Bullet train project
In September 2017, Prime Minister Narendra Modi and his Japanese counterpart Shinzo Abe had laid the foundation stone of the ambitious bullet train project — connecting Mumbai with Ahmedabad.
The total cost of the project was set at Rs 1.08 lakh crore. Of that total, Rs 88,000 crore was earmarked for the actual construction work is to be funded by yen-denominated loans from the Japanese government with an annual interest rate of 0.1 per cent and repayable in 50 years.
JICA committed 80 per cent of the funding. According to the JICA loan conditions, only Japanese manufacturers such as Kawasaki and Hitachi would supply trains for the project.
Construction of the project began in 2020 across corridor spanning Maharashtra (155.76 km), Gujarat (384.04 km), and Dadra and Nagar Haveli (4.3 km), with an original completion timeline set for 2023. However, farmers' protests related to land acquisition have significantly delayed its progress.
In March 2024, the NHSRCL, which is overseeing the project, confirmed that all civil contracts in both Gujarat and Maharashtra had been awarded.
What is the project status?
The NHSRCL said it has completed 100 per cent land acquisition for the project across Gujarat, Maharashtra and Dadra and Nagar Haveli on January 8.
Vaishnaw also shared all 1389.49 hectares required for the project has been acquired.
According to the monthly progress report, the overall physical progress achieved is 57.4 per cent as against the target of 61.1 per cent with a shortfall of 3.7 per cent till October. On the financial front, the progress is 63.45.58 per cent with an expenditure of Rs 76,635.49 crore incurred up to end-October. Total expenditure in incurred in last financial year (FY) 2023-24 was Rs 9,246.26 crore.
According to the original schedule, the first bullet train with 10 coaches is expected to arrive from Japan before 2027 so that it can be operationalised between Vapi and Sabarmati in Gujarat by August, 2027.