Firstly you see which countries actually need a carrier.
In my view a country which has far lying regions that are far away from their "motherland" need power projection tools such as carrier
If you see how the need for the carrier came about .. During WW2 the most powerful ships were the Battleships like Hood, Prince of Wales and the American "State" class ships and the japanese battle ships. The limitation of this ship was the best weapon, The GUN., Though it had a long range (till say 40 kms) there were a lot of issue. Firstly the guns were not accurate and it was difficult to get the bearing also needed someone experienced to determine the accuracy based on earlier fired shells. Now the carrier based planes changed that, firstly the range range of these planes was few hundred kms,. so they could hit a target at much further distance with better accuracy (if the pilots are well trained) with no risk to themselves from the enemy battleship. The battleship was in a way "out ranged" In case of pearl harbour, the Japanese could hit the US Fleet but the US fleet could not hit the japanese ships that time. simply because they were well out of range.
After that during some of the battles, the US and the british lost a few carriers to submarine action, and that changed the mindset and since then carriers could not be independent, but had to travel in group with screen of submarines and destroyers sanitising the area
Few of the rules I might add for why a country should go for carriers would be
a) The country should have very very strong economy like USA.. not fragile economy like China.
b) You should have the need to project power well beyond 1000 kms from your land base.. so for us if we want to project power in Africa or say Indonesia or in South America or Australia OR have a distant territory which is under threat of foreign invasion and hence adding the carrier adds to defence dynamics of that territory.. So in this case Reunion island, or Falkland islands qualify, but Gibraltar and Malta do not really qualify as of now.
c) The quality and nos of the aerial fleet that the enemy can bring in to bear for the action is much lower than what aerial fleet you can bring in to bear on them. Thus Carrier attack against Pakistan might not really fit, but maybe against some targets in somalia etc yes. Else if its against Pakistan than should involve maybe an alliance where its surrounded from all sides like say Iran, Afghanistan, and maybe USA also, then it might make sense . So even if using say Rafale M against Pakistan might still be a weakness where the enemy planes can in theory follow the rafales to the carrier and attempt to strike it down with bigger force.
The above are some of the points that I thought. On other hand due to various developments the carriers are able to carry planes much heavier and much capable and also more expensive. due to development in chemistry and electronics, now missiles like Tomahawk can fly long range and hit target more accurately.
So, how would I go about it, Since we have developed and produced carriers thats OK, but what I might plan is
1. Using long range reconiassance and AEW planes like P-8I or long range unmanned drones to scan and detect any threats, I might even suggest underwater drones. which are dropped just outside the maritine water of the enemy and which transmits reports as and when required and not transmit when the enemy is located near.
2. Develop naval air bases which also flies armed reconaissance using long range planes like Su-30 MKI or Su-34 or Tu-22M (just my view) these planes have long range and can project power using shore based assets.
3. Develop ANI further to make it lynchpin of Indian navy, make it perhaps the strongest naval carrier type pill box, where it can allow to take off and land long range planes and fighters making it like the ROCK.
4. Develop long range drones both HALE and MALE (lightly armed with say one ASM/ASH and two A2A, just in case) to reconaissance well past our maritime border. Thus P-8 I is the top "predator" and these drones sweep the area with random directions so as to not make the route predictable.
5.Develop/buy and produce long range amphibious AEW&C plane using platform like the japanese ShinMaywa US-2 and using our own developed AESA radar which is on our own AEW platform and few other sensors to assist in detection of submarines etc. This can be our own take on US navys E-2D, they have carrier so they need a carrier based plane to do it, but we not having carrier based AEW can use this solution to match our requirement, and since its amphibian, it can return back to land base or be refueled at sea by co-ordinating with our naval ships to increase its range
6. Develop heavily armed corvettes and frigates which have say
1-2 X CIWS like KASHTAN (gun missile combo)
1 X 100 mm gun,
1 launcher X Anti Submarine rockets,
2 X long range torpedo tubes (optional) or 4 X Brahmo
8-12 X long range Surface to surface missiles like Prahar.
Hope its not too heavy
I think the era of carrier is gone, it is now the era of smaller but heavily armed vessels that can take out targets from stand off distance using data from either AEW plane or a Drone plane or combination there off, there would not be the need to invest and risk and expensive asset like Aircraft carrier unless we wish to project power in Africa or to take over some small but distant land and we need to protect it at all costs.
In my view a country which has far lying regions that are far away from their "motherland" need power projection tools such as carrier
If you see how the need for the carrier came about .. During WW2 the most powerful ships were the Battleships like Hood, Prince of Wales and the American "State" class ships and the japanese battle ships. The limitation of this ship was the best weapon, The GUN., Though it had a long range (till say 40 kms) there were a lot of issue. Firstly the guns were not accurate and it was difficult to get the bearing also needed someone experienced to determine the accuracy based on earlier fired shells. Now the carrier based planes changed that, firstly the range range of these planes was few hundred kms,. so they could hit a target at much further distance with better accuracy (if the pilots are well trained) with no risk to themselves from the enemy battleship. The battleship was in a way "out ranged" In case of pearl harbour, the Japanese could hit the US Fleet but the US fleet could not hit the japanese ships that time. simply because they were well out of range.
After that during some of the battles, the US and the british lost a few carriers to submarine action, and that changed the mindset and since then carriers could not be independent, but had to travel in group with screen of submarines and destroyers sanitising the area
Few of the rules I might add for why a country should go for carriers would be
a) The country should have very very strong economy like USA.. not fragile economy like China.
b) You should have the need to project power well beyond 1000 kms from your land base.. so for us if we want to project power in Africa or say Indonesia or in South America or Australia OR have a distant territory which is under threat of foreign invasion and hence adding the carrier adds to defence dynamics of that territory.. So in this case Reunion island, or Falkland islands qualify, but Gibraltar and Malta do not really qualify as of now.
c) The quality and nos of the aerial fleet that the enemy can bring in to bear for the action is much lower than what aerial fleet you can bring in to bear on them. Thus Carrier attack against Pakistan might not really fit, but maybe against some targets in somalia etc yes. Else if its against Pakistan than should involve maybe an alliance where its surrounded from all sides like say Iran, Afghanistan, and maybe USA also, then it might make sense . So even if using say Rafale M against Pakistan might still be a weakness where the enemy planes can in theory follow the rafales to the carrier and attempt to strike it down with bigger force.
The above are some of the points that I thought. On other hand due to various developments the carriers are able to carry planes much heavier and much capable and also more expensive. due to development in chemistry and electronics, now missiles like Tomahawk can fly long range and hit target more accurately.
So, how would I go about it, Since we have developed and produced carriers thats OK, but what I might plan is
1. Using long range reconiassance and AEW planes like P-8I or long range unmanned drones to scan and detect any threats, I might even suggest underwater drones. which are dropped just outside the maritine water of the enemy and which transmits reports as and when required and not transmit when the enemy is located near.
2. Develop naval air bases which also flies armed reconaissance using long range planes like Su-30 MKI or Su-34 or Tu-22M (just my view) these planes have long range and can project power using shore based assets.
3. Develop ANI further to make it lynchpin of Indian navy, make it perhaps the strongest naval carrier type pill box, where it can allow to take off and land long range planes and fighters making it like the ROCK.
4. Develop long range drones both HALE and MALE (lightly armed with say one ASM/ASH and two A2A, just in case) to reconaissance well past our maritime border. Thus P-8 I is the top "predator" and these drones sweep the area with random directions so as to not make the route predictable.
5.Develop/buy and produce long range amphibious AEW&C plane using platform like the japanese ShinMaywa US-2 and using our own developed AESA radar which is on our own AEW platform and few other sensors to assist in detection of submarines etc. This can be our own take on US navys E-2D, they have carrier so they need a carrier based plane to do it, but we not having carrier based AEW can use this solution to match our requirement, and since its amphibian, it can return back to land base or be refueled at sea by co-ordinating with our naval ships to increase its range
6. Develop heavily armed corvettes and frigates which have say
1-2 X CIWS like KASHTAN (gun missile combo)
1 X 100 mm gun,
1 launcher X Anti Submarine rockets,
2 X long range torpedo tubes (optional) or 4 X Brahmo
8-12 X long range Surface to surface missiles like Prahar.
Hope its not too heavy
I think the era of carrier is gone, it is now the era of smaller but heavily armed vessels that can take out targets from stand off distance using data from either AEW plane or a Drone plane or combination there off, there would not be the need to invest and risk and expensive asset like Aircraft carrier unless we wish to project power in Africa or to take over some small but distant land and we need to protect it at all costs.
That will work only for a few years, probably a decade. I was referring to what China can do in the next 15 years, not what they can do after 15 years.
My idea was to delay the procurement of the MRCBF, or just buy upgraded Mig-29s for now, and then go for a MII program for Rafale-M after IA's and IAF's needs are met first. Until then, with the combination of Brahmos-M and the short distance towards all the bases within IOR, we will be able to deny any adversary a safe zone with Mig-29s alone.
The MRCBF for 57 jets is expected to cost $15B. So I hoped the navy would buy Mig-29s instead and surrender the rest for the IAF's or IA's modernization. The money could pay for 36 more Rafales, 6 A330s for the IAF along with the 1.3 million new rifles and 300,000 BPJs that the IA needs. All this if we delay procuring Rafale-M by only a few years, three years at best. The reason I say this is because the Chinese are not yet confident enough to operate in the numbers necessary to threaten the IN for now. But it looks like the IN wants to blow it all on 57 Rafales right away. After 2030 or so, we will most definitely need supercarriers.
I think the IN and IAF are pushing for 57 Rafale-Ms so that Dassault can start MII along with 36 more Rafales. Once that's done, it will become impossible for GoI to say no to more Rafales for the IAF because we will already have a MII program running.
Supercarriers are better than islands.
We don't need to wait for our economy to rise up to 10T for us to be able to counter China. What we need is 9-10% GDP growth. We get to that, our defence budget will grow at 14% every year. With the combination of higher budget and faster indigenization, we will be able to spend enough money every year to counter China.
If we manage to get to this level by 2020 and sustain it until 2030, our defence budget will be massive. More than $200B a year in 2030, with most of it being used up on capital expenditure.
We are talking about revenue growth, not even GDP, because that's where our defence budget comes from. And our tax revenue increased by 22% last year. And this figure will continue improving as we get out of the slump.