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It was a surrender - by Vajpayee led government. Had the terrorists exploded the aircraft, India would have been in all rights to sort Pakistan once and for all. And that, when their sum total of weapons would not have needed me to take off my shoes to count on finger.
Dealing with Pakistan is like cleaning of smelling garbage in your neighbor. The municipal is out of power and money to do it. Each resident was another resident to deal with it because no one wants their clothes to get dirty. So, it is seldom done. It keeps on getting bigger and smellier. Finally when fire or disease breakout, it is dealt in emergency mode; not without sending a lot of people to hospital.
 
Dealing with Pakistan is like cleaning of smelling garbage in your neighbor. The municipal is out of power and money to do it. Each resident was another resident to deal with it because no one wants their clothes to get dirty. So, it is seldom done. It keeps on getting bigger and smellier. Finally when fire or disease breakout, it is dealt in emergency mode; not without sending a lot of people to hospital.


An analogy that may look ridiculous but holds true.

We have to live with the neighbour we have, we have no option. How we deal with it, is our issue. That is why, I am waiting for @Star Wars to join us at the thread I had posted on Imposing Costs.

Let us wait for that to further carry on this discussion.

That would been a casus belli for a full scale war

Yes and No. The PAF retaliation on Military Targets, as claimed by GoI and IAF, is a reason enough. But did we? I suggest you head over to the thread on Imposing Costs made by me in one of my rant modes and a great rejoinder posted by @suryakiran ... your inputs on this can be carried forward there.

Pakistan is not no position to fight a war.

Again, we have a dichotomy. It is yes and a no.

Not to mention I assume an Airbase would been defended by short/long range SAM sites. Feels like a suicide mission to me.

Irrelevant. Stand off weapons may/may not be intercepted by SAMs. They need CIWS. That is a bit difficult to envisage.

And SAMs would be some way off. Remember that the Kashmir Valley is a flat expanse of land surrounded by towering mountains on all it's sides, so detection may be delayed with delay in consequent firing solutions being available for the SAM teams.
 
If you were to list out various methods/platforms of submarine detection available to us in terms of detection and engagement speed, what would it look like ?


That is the domain of @vstol Jockey. Whatever I say, will be speculative at best. @ankitkumar has also disappeared, he was a navy buff. Where is he?
 
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Limit of escalation. By not closing airspace limited the points at which PAF could have engaged IAF to near LoC. WC Varthman's initiative was not in equation and the planners never anticipated an Air to Air combat involving loss of a plane. It was weird because our planners tried to balance a strike with limiting the escalation. It didn't go as planned... Conflict never does anyways.

Oh, it seems to be a case of entrapment on sides of both. PAF fell for the trap, IAF was ready and waiting, Wg Cdr Varthman decided to play a bit out of line to the overall plan, and was trapped too.

Now one can always say that, as I am convinced that he bagged a F-16, the bagging of F-16 was the saving grace for his actions, IAF limiting PAF ingress and engaging them after being left unchallenged in the Pakistani Airspace with the famous tweet by Pakistan Defence of PAF being awake was the saving grace for IAF and downing and capture of an IAF pilot was saving grace of PAF.

I am sure both sides expected an A2A combat and were prepared for it, they just did not expect to get a kill and get killed in the way that it played out.
 
no one has spoken of the Damage in Chakothi and Muzzafarabd till date
What's the damage assessment sir at these places? Your grapevine assessment.

Looks like doval had done something to him
Yeah recent high profile snatch from UAE in Augusta Westland scam was engineered by Doval, could lead to jail time for Rahul and his mother. Therefore the targeting.
 
This is going into the claim and counterclaim realm again.

ACM Dhanoa said the targets were hit. AVM Kapoor said revealing casualties now will be "premature". Pakistan claimed no targets were hit.

Pak claimed the PAF strike package's targets were empty fields. India claimed the target was the Brigade HQ, and the PAF jets missed their targets.

I'm gonna believe what my forces say, you will believe yours. We will just go around in circles from here on.

Also, no, one wouldn't target a Brigade HQ in exchange for some trees. But of course, you will say the Brigade HQ wasn't the target. Circle.
Except that we have evidence that the said target was not hit. As I said before, I'm not going by anyone's claims here. Just irrefutable evidence.

Regarding PAF's strike, there is no evidence available yet. However, PA actually claimed that they hit 'non-military' targets. India claimed that they hit within the Indian military installation compounds, but didn't do any damage. Given that PAF utilized H-4 SOWs (evidence present), it is believable that PAF's strike was a shot across the bow...a very carefully calibrated proportional response, to what we believe IAF's strike was.

It doesn't matter what it is, it's all conjecture right now after all.

Btw, thermobaric bombs come in all sizes, from tank and artillery shells to MOAB, FOAB and everything in between.

FWIW:
No, it is not conjecture, only speculation with the intention to justify your claim, on your part.

I know they do, the thing is IAF used a very specific size. Thats the basis of the entire argument.

Why is the 2000 pound number so that important? Once you have a penetration warhead you can get the job at a fraction of that size. Besides I don’t see why an armed force with a 50 billlion usd budget won’t have 2000 pound munition in service. The question you have asked is strange, the question should be did they use it or not.
The number is important because Pakistan has evidence of SPICE-2000 SOWs being employed for the strike. SPICE-2000 is compatible ONLY with 2000lbs munitions. I would be happy to be proven wrong.
And I didn't say IAF didn't have a 2000lbs (general purpose/penetration) munition. I asked, does IAF have a 2000lbs ANTI-PERSONNEL munition, the kind which leaves non-hardened structures intact?

The devil is always in the details.

Before "Surgical Strike" become a PR thing and a bollywood movie, from what I know, this was a permanent fixture of military engagement from both the sides on LoC.

That said air strike is a new development.
Indeed. In the Indo-Pak context, I've observed that the truth is always somewhere in between the two lies. While India politicized and claimed brouhaha regarding the 2016 cross-border raids, Pakistan denied them in their entirety. Cross border raids were nothing new, what changed was, this time it was a synchronized raid at 5-6 locations, with the intent to cause military and non-military casualties.

We did not miss the target instead to make sure we first released the first set of bombs and when dust cloud got settled second set of bombs were released.
Oohh, when is THIS movie being released? Is it possible to pre-order tickets?

If it comes to the point of armed terrorists with "no supervision " & potentially armed with NWP, it ceases to be India's problem exclusively and automatically becomes a world problem. As it is the question of snakes being raised in ones backyard only biting those it was raised to act against has been proved false. That was always going to happen as any student of history will tell you. It's the TTP now. What's to prevent the JeM or LeT not going rogue some years down the line? The question being even if you were to come to terms with India & Afghanistan what will you do with this ever growing lot of illiterate , radicalised youth with little or no chance of being absorbed into the economy in a productive manner.

I guess we'd just have to steel ourselves just as Israel has done in the West Bank. Build perimeters, constantly monitor them, be vigilant, use state of the art technologies and if in spite of all this we face casualties ( which is inevitable) unleash hell on the attackers and their constituency.
I absolutely agree that Pakistan HAS to stop supporting these 'strategic assets', NOW. They only work for their interests aka money. There is no guarantee that they will not turn against Pakistan, as evident by the attack JeM carried out on Musharraf when he tried to uproot them.

Regarding Israel/Palestine situation, one has to visualize the scale of it if the same thing happens here. We have witnessed first-hand what a mass migration does to the host country. Where do you think the Kalashnikov culture came from?
Imagine the dismembered factions of PA as the aggressors you face today. Imagine the amount and skill of them, and their new recruits. Imagine them being armed with whatever was left over and not dismantled. Imagine living in the constant fear, everyday, that somewhere in a busy city, the Geiger counters will start going off.

It will never be worth it. One way or the other, Pakistan will take the region down with it if provoked. For a long time, my signature elsewhere was:
"Ham tou doobay hain sanam,
Tum ko bhi lay doobain gaay"


But you can be sure of one thing, if more Pulwamas are going to be a staple feature, you're going to see a return to the post Lal Masjid scenario too. Only this time, with all your neighbors as antagonists, the world opinion led by the US being staunchly against you and the internal cleavages in your nation being more pronounced. Add to that a floundering economy. See if the choice is between inciting and prolonging a civil war within Pakistan to seeing a wholesale export of these elements in the neighborhood, I don't need to tell you what the choice of your neighbors is going to be.
Agreed. What the gullible public doesn't realizes, is that state-sponsored terrorism exists on both sides of the border. The difference is, Pakistan does it somewhat openly and in an amateur way, and India does it in a very concealed manner, always remaining in the shadows. In fact I expect some sort of TTP regrouping and some boarding tickets to Jannat being issued right now, as retaliation to Pulwama.
Pakistan has very limited options right now, and it must act.
 
(notice how no one has spoken of the Damage in Chakothi and Muzzafarabd till date)

Purely from a PR perspective, when the silence about these targets from all civilian quarters is broken, all hell will break loose.

I get the feeling the govt will release something in the run up to the elections so that it stays fresh in people's minds when they cast their vote.
 
Fake.

Guys, please use your grey cells, (no pun intended)

Have you seen the effect of a bomb in closed environments? Would that effect leave perfectly fine figured wrapped bodies? Or would there be pieces and parts of bodies?

And Edhi foundation in it?

And if the whole thing was a cover up, do you think mobiles would not be taken, thereby making it impossible to take a photo?

Pure garbage.

I still remember that torn face from Mushy's book.
 
Except that we have evidence that the said target was not hit. As I said before, I'm not going by anyone's claims here. Just irrefutable evidence.

I think Falcon's post here should tell you all. Particularly the one in bold.

Broadly, yes. The planning of a reprisal was always with the Corps Commander in picture and Command in loop. With the 'Surgical Strike' a test case of political ownership of strikes was made which served two purposes:

1. Aimed at dealing with the increased awareness of Indian public which is now more aware, thanks to media.
2. Called out Pakistan's chant of 'nuclear weapons' and attempted to create, for the first time, escalation below the nuclear threshold in a demonstrative and not theoretical manner. Further, it showed that India would be willing to wage a conventional campaign if need be, even if Pakistan held out a nuclear threat.

While we look at this, what the IAF strikes in PoJ&K (notice how no one has spoken of the Damage in Chakothi and Muzzafarabd till date) and in Pakistan itself has demonstrated is the willingness to strike at targets into Pakistan. This is a very important message as this checkmated any attempts of Pakistan to brush off strike in PoJ&K under the pure context of 'Kashmir issue' thereby pushing forward it's narrative of making it of Kashmir.

At the same time, Pakistan declared that any Air Strike within Pakistan would be an act of aggression and would be responded to. Yet they have inadvertently, struck into what they call Indian Occupied Kashmir and not what they call Indian Territory.

This bit is very significant. Was it a lapse on their part? Or was it an attempt to create an option wherein, retaliatory strikes by India would have been called aggression by India exclusively over a 'disputed territory'. Or was it an attempt by Pakistan to not force India's hands by hitting any target not located within Kashmir valley including no targeting in Jammu by PAF.

One needs to ponder over these points.
 
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I think Falcon's post here should tell you all. Particularly the one in bold.
I agree with most of what's said in the specific post. My points so far have been in particular regard to the Balakot strike, based on available evidence. Regrading Chakothi & Muzaffarabad, no evidence available on the ground. Not even a peep from the locals. I wonder why (should have included this question in the initial post).

Regarding PAF's strike in IOK in response to IAF's strike in Pakistan proper, I believe that the nature of the PAF targets settled for this, i.e. non-military targets in proximity of military installations in response to non-military target in proximity of civilian installation.
 
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Indian Army bombed an ammunition depot of Pakistan army with heavy artillery near Chakothi of POK around 3PM of this afternoon.
Ammunition depot destroyed, heavy Casualties on Pakistan side.
 
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