India vs China - War Gaming Scenarios : Related News , Updates , Discussions & Analysis .

[_Anonymous_]

You've made valid points but they tend to hinge on a lot of circumstances going right within the PLA, China, CCP, and their allies. However, I do get we are wargaming. Also, factions within the PLA and CCP are not restricted to the ones that you have pointed out. There are few others present that fly under the radar.

Taiwan is an island. There's no way it can withstand what China throws at it for a length of time before capitulating. That's also the reason the US & its allies can't supply it indefinitely like in the case of Ukraine turning it into a war of attrition.

Hence it's imperative that Taiwan withstands the initial assaults before the US & its allies intervene. This is going to be an air sea battle like no other . Not even the US Japanese air sea war in the Pacific comes close. It's the reason I've stated whoever wins this wins the war for Taiwan. And whoever wins this will also win a Pyrrhic victory.

If however the PLA gains a foothold on Taiwan & manage to pump in enough soldiers opening up supply lines then it's game over .

However for that to happen it must've won the air sea campaign. Frankly I don't see China winning it . Though having said that as I pointed out before it's going to one hell of a campaign. If we didn't have any stakes in the outcome , it'd make for very interesting viewing.

Can the CCP come intact in one piece in case of a failure? That is actually what has persistently been raised by pragmatists within the party. They are preparing for a two front war themselves. However, I have repeatedly stated - Preparing for war and implementing war tactics are different. The very point that older generations of the CCP cadre have repeatedly written about. I acknowledge that border issues with China continue to persist.

Since the TW invasion comes after or along with Indian offensive:

I have linked what could be how things unfold in case of TW invasion failure. Would you be willing to head into a war with India (take losses and subject yourself to other aspects that come with any war worldwide) and then lunge into TW?

Many Ways to Fail: The Costs to China of an Unsuccessful Taiwan Invasion

A Chinese invasion of Taiwan would be an extremely difficult military, complex operation. China’s People’s Liberation Army (PLA) has been thinking seriously since the early 2000s about what such a landing would require. For over two decades, its force development efforts have been focused on the...

www.usip.org

https://digitalcommons.ndu.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1118&context=strategic-forums

If the war ends in a failure for the CCP , China will slip into a huge civil war & break up of which I've no doubt . This will be facilitated by the various factions within the CCP itself.

Separatist groups like the ones in Xinjiang or Tibet or even Hong Kong etc are peripheral to the situation though having said that there will be an impetus to secede which will succeed only if external intervention is forthcoming since the bulk of the PLA will be called into the mainland in support of the factions commanding their loyalty.

This has been true in the entire history of China . If they haven't had external agression every 300 years they succumb to internal pressures leading to a break up in the political unity of China.

This cyclical nature of political unity is well captured in opening lines of one of the oldest & most loved novels of China - The Romance of The Three Kingdoms - " The Empire Long Divided Must Unite & Long United Must Divide. Thus It Has Ever Been ...."

China's been United since the fall of the Ming Dynasty . The succeeding Qing Dynasty took China to its greatest territorial extent which still survives today if not intact then substantially.

The only losses are parts of Manchuria ceded to Russia in the very late 19th century during the so called century if humiliation & of course Taiwan.

As an aside three ceasefires from the 20th century will finally see a resolution , one way or another.

The first one obviously is the prolonged CF between the Kuomintang & the CCP , the second is the CF between the two Koreas & the third will be the one between India and Pakistan though in our case Pakistanism or the issue of separateness will continue as long as the religion survives in the sub continent including here , which is , of course , a topic for another discussion.

 

[Jaymax]

Taiwan is an island. There's no way it can withstand what China throws at it for a length of time before capitulating. That's also the reason the US & its allies can't supply it indefinitely like in the case of Ukraine turning it into a war of attrition.

True, China has invested heavily in area denial to prevent US and allies from being able to respond quickly. That capability will have to be degraded before a meaningful attempt to link up is made and that takes time.

If however the PLA gains a foothold on Taiwan & manage to pump in enough soldiers opening up supply lines then it's game over .

This is precisely the scenario wargamed more than a few times. The expected US response is degrade Chinese naval power (where China is the weakest compared to USN) to the point where it cannot reliably resupply Taiwan. Without fuel, supplies any forces there will inevitably fall.

If the war ends in a failure for the CCP , China will slip into a huge civil war & break up of which I've no doubt . This will be facilitated by the various factions within the CCP itself.

Even in the unlikely even that China wins, it will still be a disaster for them. Whichever way this campaign goes, China will come out battered and bruised. A weakened military, an economy with a shaky future (Russia like sanctions hurt China whose entire money making model is cheap exports) and rising social discontent due to economic uncertainty - none of these things will be helped by taking Taiwan back.

Nasser of Egypt realized that when crowds came in front of his palace asking - O Hero of the Crossing, where is our bread.

My take is - China's unhealthy obsession with Taiwan and the moon sized chip on its shoulder will be its undoing.

 

[Subgradewalker]

True, China has invested heavily in area denial to prevent US and allies from being able to respond quickly. That capability will have to be degraded before a meaningful attempt to link up is made and that takes time.



This is precisely the scenario wargamed more than a few times. The expected US response is degrade Chinese naval power (where China is the weakest compared to USN) to the point where it cannot reliably resupply Taiwan. Without fuel, supplies any forces there will inevitably fall.



Even in the unlikely even that China wins, it will still be a disaster for them. Whichever way this campaign goes, China will come out battered and bruised. A weakened military, an economy with a shaky future (Russia like sanctions hurt China whose entire money making model is cheap exports) and rising social discontent due to economic uncertainty - none of these things will be helped by taking Taiwan back.

Nasser of Egypt realized that when crowds came in front of his palace asking - O Hero of the Crossing, where is our bread.

My take is - China's unhealthy obsession with Taiwan and the moon sized chip on its shoulder will be its undoing.

The thing about such perspectives is that these doesn't factor the larger variables at play.

While it's plausible that internal politics can make Xi prematurely move towards Taiwan.. it still wouldn't happen in isolation. And while CCP and China have problems.. but so does USA. It will be harder for USN to manage logistics than for China.

And USA is not viewed that greatly either. With current Trump theatrics, i doubt any US boots on their soil would be welcomed with full trust. And that skepticism can have butterfly effects when coordinated command is needed.

Then we don't know what the situation in arctic, IOR, Arabian sea, west asia might be at the time. China has its set of allies like Russia, Iran to do it's bidding to muddy the waters and a servant in Pakistan and ISI to further muddy it to constraint India. Only scenario where India can actively play part is if our security & defense ecosystem and military preparedness by then would have utter dominance over pak and it's proxies. Which is unlikely till 2027. Maybe in mid 2030s.

This will thin out USN and it's command too. NATO can be managed by Russia. So, yeah.. CCP doesn't have advantages.. but neither does USN of China plays it right which it has so far barring few critical mistakes.

And war isn't always a result of rational decision. We should know!

Other side of the coin is as you suggest.. if USA is able to navigate it's current path, it does have the capability to beat China badly.

 

[Jaymax]

The thing about such perspectives is that these doesn't factor the larger variables at play.

While it's plausible that internal politics can make Xi prematurely move towards Taiwan.. it still wouldn't happen in isolation. And while CCP and China have problems.. but so does USA. It will be harder for USN to manage logistics than for China.

And USA is not viewed that greatly either. With current Trump theatrics, i doubt any US boots on their soil would be welcomed with full trust. And that skepticism can have butterfly effects when coordinated command is needed.

Then we don't know what the situation in arctic, IOR, Arabian sea, west asia might be at the time. China has its set of allies like Russia, Iran to do it's bidding to muddy the waters and a servant in Pakistan and ISI to further muddy it to constraint India. Only scenario where India can actively play part is if our security & defense ecosystem and military preparedness by then would have utter dominance over pak and it's proxies. Which is unlikely till 2027. Maybe in mid 2030s.

This will thin out USN and it's command too. NATO can be managed by Russia. So, yeah.. CCP doesn't have advantages.. but neither does USN of China plays it right which it has so far barring few critical mistakes.

And war isn't always a result of rational decision. We should know!

Other side of the coin is as you suggest.. if USA is able to navigate it's current path, it does have the capability to beat China badly.

It actually does consider the variables at play.

The rules of the wargame (as published) limited Blue team to limited use of the Red Sea. USN primarily leveraged Guam, Japan, Hawaii under Chinese use of Area Denial weapons.

3 Super carriers and the USN attack submarines along with surface combatants providing aerial defense make for a very powerful force projection.

This ties in with what I had posted earlier. A short campaign favors China but if US digs in - its a long drawn war with a forgone conclusion.

 

[Subgradewalker]

It actually does consider the variables at play.

The rules of the wargame (as published) limited Blue team to limited use of the Red Sea. USN primarily leveraged Guam, Japan, Hawaii under Chinese use of Area Denial weapons.

3 Super carriers and the USN attack submarines along with surface combatants providing aerial defense make for a very powerful force projection.

This ties in with what I had posted earlier. A short campaign favors China but if US digs in - its a long drawn war with a forgone conclusion.

Thanks for the clarification and info.

Assuming 2027-28 timeline.
What if Russia furthers it's escalation against EU and in arctic.
Iran opens a campaign targetting US' interest in west asia.
India not taking part while denying IOR to CN.
Turkey starting it's campaign in it's region.

How will that effect the USAs chances to dig in and beat China.

It's duty bound in EU through NATO. 2027 is not enough time for NATO to beef up substantially.
Have interest in west asia, too big to give up.
No military alliance in indo-pacific except few foreign bases.

Then you've got China's manufacturing scale, Russian resources and legacy experience, Iran+ISI proxy network.

US has its assets to counter but does it have the ability to sustain either ?

 

[Jaymax]

Thanks for the clarification and info.

Assuming 2027-28 timeline.
What if Russia furthers it's escalation against EU and in arctic.
Iran opens a campaign targetting US' interest in west asia.
India not taking part while denying IOR to CN.
Turkey starting it's campaign in it's region.

How will that effect the USAs chances to dig in and beat China.

It's duty bound in EU through NATO. 2027 is not enough time for NATO to beef up substantially.
Have interest in west asia, too big to give up.
No military alliance in indo-pacific except few foreign bases.

Then you've got China's manufacturing scale, Russian resources and legacy experience, Iran+ISI proxy network.

US has its assets to counter but does it have the ability to sustain either ?

If you think Pak is going against the US, I have a property in old Delhi for you to buy. Indo Saracen Architecture, Red Sandstone throughout. Amazing FSI, Exquisite carvings and assured rental income from at least 2 Government events every year. Thinking Pak is loyal to someone who gives them aid is like thinking the stripper at the dance club loves you for your charming personality.

The USN has been a bluewater navy for decades with extensive experience in logistics of fighting beyond its territorial waters. Unless China plans on bombing Japan, Australia and Hawaii on day 1 (which is highly likely though), USN will steam in.

If these bases are taken out for a few weeks, it messes up the schedule but it does not impact USN attack subs for example. They can take out shipping tonnage on a scale that even China cant match. You can fly in war material but its as efficient as flying in gravel to build roads.

The USN will have to fight its way back to Taiwan and provide cover for troop transports. With supplies not assured, the best Chinese troops can do is an Iwo Jima type last stand.

The Red Sea denial does not impact the Pacific route which is undoubtedly longer but too big to seal completely.

India - given carrottop's antics will likely not get involved.

Iran - given their latest rough handling will be keen to stay low. Israel isnt done and they know it.

 

[Subgradewalker]

If you think Pak is going against the US, I have a property in old Delhi for you to buy. Indo Saracen Architecture, Red Sandstone throughout. Amazing FSI, Exquisite carvings and assured rental income from at least 2 Government events every year. Thinking Pak is loyal to someone who gives them aid is like thinking the stripper at the dance club loves you for your charming personality.

The USN has been a bluewater navy for decades with extensive experience in logistics of fighting beyond its territorial waters. Unless China plans on bombing Japan, Australia and Hawaii on day 1 (which is highly likely though), USN will steam in.

If these bases are taken out for a few weeks, it messes up the schedule but it does not impact USN attack subs for example. They can take out shipping tonnage on a scale that even China cant match. You can fly in war material but its as efficient as flying in gravel to build roads.

The USN will have to fight its way back to Taiwan and provide cover for troop transports. With supplies not assured, the best Chinese troops can do is an Iwo Jima type last stand.

The Red Sea denial does not impact the Pacific route which is undoubtedly longer but too big to seal completely.

India - given carrottop's antics will likely not get involved.

Iran - given their latest rough handling will be keen to stay low. Israel isnt done and they know it.

I said ISI, not pak. And proxy war from Iran, not direct confrontation. Israel will need further logistical support from EU and USA to go on offensive once again at behest of USA.

Yes, USN is a class in itself, no doubt. That's why I asked of a likely scenario where China through its allies.. opens multiple fronts to thin out US forces.

Can USA sustain a long protracted war either? And come out relatively better. I don't see west asian nations and south asian nations actively helping US, going out of their way to help US keep its hegemony.

And given present scenario, how likely is it that USA will give its all to protect taiwan?

 

[Jaymax]

I said ISI, not pak. And proxy war from Iran, not direct confrontation. Israel will need further logistical support from EU and USA to go on offensive once again at behest of USA.

Yes, USN is a class in itself, no doubt. That's why I asked of a likely scenario where China through its allies.. opens multiple fronts to thin out US forces.

Can USA sustain a long protracted war either? And come out relatively better. I don't see west asian nations and south asian nations actively helping US, going out of their way to help US keep its hegemony.

And given present scenario, how likely is it that USA will give its all to protect taiwan?

This conjured up story that ISI is a rogue org running wild with no control is a tad bit exaggerated.

US can deploy 3 carriers even if Iran makes noise. Russian Navy is in no state to challenge USN. Australia, leftover Taiwanese forces, Japan, SK, Phil are highly likely to join the fight.

Israel needs help with AD munitions especially the smart ones. It has a healthy inventory of AGMs. With the recent degrading of Iranian AD capability, Iran can only lob missiles at Israel and get a beating in return. No tangible gain on either side. Iran isnt dumb enough to get beaten for the Swine Eaters.

A big unknown variable is the US's resolve. It can swing either way. Which is why I posted short campaign favors China, longer campaigns favor US.

 

[_Anonymous_]

As usual Caspian Report comes up with a timely documentary on the spate of construction activities across the LAC in Tibet & Xinjiang of both civilian & military infrastructure including dual use ones in many cases .

The documentary presents a useful counterpoint to what I've been arguing about China initiating the war against India before Taiwan suggesting that the massive infrastructure development there could well be defensive in nature to deter Indian adventurism in case China goes on the offensive against Taiwan.

This is frankly giving our dhotis & suits too much credit but this is how the world perceives it for it is normal to cash in on an enemy's disadvantage or when the enemy is pre occupied in some other theater except this is India we're talking about & our leadership as well as bureaucracy.

Won't blame The Caspian Report from assembling all the pieces of evidence & coming to the wrong conclusion for he's not acquainted with the pusillanimity of our ruling classes the way we are.

However the evidence that he puts forth makes a war inevitable as the Sino Indian paradigm has transcended the old border dispute & the fact that we're hosting the Dalai Lama long ago.

Since then China's only added a lot more on the plate to pile up on the list of potential disagreements such that even if the original irritants are resolved the recent ones can't be .

You may be interested . @Rajput Lion ; @Jaymax ; @Speedster1

 

[Jaymax]

The documentary presents a useful counterpoint to what I've been arguing about China initiating the war against India before Taiwan suggesting that the massive infrastructure development there could well be defensive in nature to deter Indian adventurism in case China goes on the offensive against Taiwan.

If only we did something like this

This is frankly giving our dhotis & suits too much credit

My thoughts exactly.

 

[_Anonymous_]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1900196834506641498

https://twitter.com/x/status/1979164634977386738

https://twitter.com/x/status/1980448187727888451

Can't confirm how much of this is genuine or propaganda by anti CCP forces but what needs to be noted is > 50% of top PLA generals & CMC members have been replaced in the recent past .

There seems to be a huge power struggle on between Xi Jinping's faction & those opposed to him . How much will these incidents & tension accelerate China's campaign against Taiwan & possibly India remains to be seen but be under no illusion whenever dictatorships are in trouble internally they tend to stir up external tensions to drum up nationalism & support internally .


China's no exception . Under Mao they've done it multiple times including in 1962.

 

[_Anonymous_]

A primer on why Russia & China will never be friends ever & that this phase is merely a tactical relationship

Here's the main course for those interested .

 

[Jaymax]

A potentially devastating weapon China might field on day 0 in the next conflicts. Undetected, mounted on commercial vessels spread far and wide. Shoot scoot - force enemies to scan track the vast commercial traffic.

 

[Shan]

A primer on why Russia & China will never be friends ever & that this phase is merely a tactical relationship

Here's the main course for those interested .

Sarah Paine is one of those SMEs' who knows what they are talking about and try to provide as many examples as feasible to boiler plate their arguments. Her talks go into hours and are detailed. Anyone looking to dive into East Asia post WWII, do give her lectures a go. She is not a podcast regular and her appearences in media are irregular.

 

[Subgradewalker]

Sarah Paine is one of those SMEs' who knows what they are talking about and try to provide as many examples as feasible to boiler plate their arguments. Her talks go into hours and are detailed. Anyone looking to dive into East Asia post WWII, do give her lectures a go. She is not a podcast regular and her appearences in media are irregular.

Agreed. I watched her take on US relationship with pak & India. By far the most neutral and compelling analysis i found. Dissects national interest and personal ego when it comes to policies shaping relations.

Went on describing the Pakistan's state guests like treatment to even the lower rung of US Administration vs IG's personal dislike for them administration. Simultaneously calling out US' double standard on being wary of Indo-russian partnership since then.

 

[_Anonymous_]

 

[jmaxwell_]

1. Whenever the internal politics has been weak, particularly leadeship transitions and consolidation of power, China has sought external aggression.

2. Further, analyzing the pattern below, a reminder that some Chinese aggression with India is due this year.

 

[_Anonymous_]

1. Whenever the internal politics has been weak, particularly leadeship transitions and consolidation of power, China has sought external aggression.

2. Further, analyzing the pattern below, a reminder that some Chinese aggression with India is due this year.

View attachment 49531

Extremely interesting & informative discussion between former FS Vijay Gokhale & Nitin Gokhale on the repeated purge of the CMC leadership by Xi Jinping.

Long story short , if China moves against Taiwan it risks economic sanctions which it may not be in a position to withstand currently.

However if the political climate continues to vitiate inside China coupled with economic issues , Xi could look at diverting attention externally thru a short war.

That's where we come in as a border conflict with us will be limited in its reach & scope at least in its initial stages irrespective how it pans out eventually. Plus India's non aligned to any bloc which means little to no risk of sanctions .

I'd say we must keep a close watch on China & developments along the LAC.

@Jaymax

 

[jmaxwell_]

Extremely interesting & informative discussion between former FS Vijay Gokhale & Nitin Gokhale on the repeated purge of the CMC leadership by Xi Jinping.

Long story short , if China moves against Taiwan it risks economic sanctions which it may not be in a position to withstand currently.

However if the political climate continues to vitiate inside China coupled with economic issues , Xi could look at diverting attention externally thru a short war.

That's where we come in as a border conflict with us will be limited in its reach & scope at least in its initial stages irrespective how it pans out eventually. Plus India's non aligned to any bloc which means little to no risk of sanctions .

I'd say we must keep a close watch on China & developments along the LAC.

@Jaymax

Let me propose a totally wild theory I'm pulling out of my butt with no evidence to back it up:

Most of the Chinese war startegems are about misdirection. This type of stuff: “Deceive the heavens to cross the sea”, “Feign madness but keep your balance”, etc.

What if the stories around weakened economic outlook is all head fake? What if the purging of all the theater commanders, generals from top to bottom, etc. is all misdirection? What if they along with the other purged politiburo critters are all sitting inside Beijing military city, their new 1500-acre military command, in the final stages of their war gaming against Taiwan?

 

[Subgradewalker]

Let me propose a totally wild theory I'm pulling out of my butt with no evidence to back it up:

Most of the Chinese war startegems are about misdirection. This type of stuff: “Deceive the heavens to cross the sea”, “Feign madness but keep your balance”, etc.

What if the stories around weakened economic outlook is all head fake? What if the purging of all the theater commanders, generals from top to bottom, etc. is all misdirection? What if they along with the other purged politiburo critters are all sitting inside Beijing military city, their new 1500-acre military command, in the final stages of their war gaming against Taiwan?

I will have some implications within CCP.
-Let's assume that CCP, Xi could do it all without harming them in public ( lack of proof).
-We may also assume, that Then comes state machinery.. while efficient, it's still not too smaller than our own state machinery. Every documentation etc.. leaves paper and human trail. What if someone connects it to the top.
When the people involved in supposed "execution" do not find their services being needed.
- CCP is a organisms in itself. There are far too many people with own interests and power. There will certainly be a faction that will be kept out of it, but eventually grasp something.. surely CCP members are smart and cunning.

And if whole politburo is involved... Then only under one circumstances they can pull it off... No threat of foreign spies whatsoever.