When we bought the S400 we limited our Next Generation Stealth Fighter Options. If you see where the F16s are being offered or sold , are states where offering F35 is either economically or politically not possible. Otherwise LM , wherever it is competing in a fighter jet competition, the offer is F35. And with S400 we have closed that door for us. Our only options are a derivative of Su57 or AMCA. That's why I believe that AMCA will happen. It might not be enough to replace Flankers, but it is only option we have.
In any case, I think as a policy the top brass in the IAF & MoD have decided not to go in for critical offensive platforms to the US - viz Fighter Aircrafts , which is why not just F-35 but what follows it too won't be considered.
The US would be considered for supporting platforms viz transport, AEW, MALE / HALE Drones for IST & offensive capabilities, Naval & Air Force Helicopters, etc. For that matter, I doubt we'd go to the US for a tank too. As far as the carrier based version of the F-35 goes, I'm not too sure. There seems to be a dearth of a good 5th generation platform for naval aviation as of today. So, the IN could probably opt for the F-35B for sheer lack of choice in the matter. But that's a decision which would be made post 2025 not today.
You misunderstood. I never claimed the AMCA won't happen. I have misgivings on its potency & whether it will live up to whatever is being promised to us by ADA. In any case one won't see the definitive version of the AMCA before 2035-40 timeline which in turn means whatever requirement we have for a 5th Gen platform will have to be met by the Russians. I believe all parties involved viz the GoI, MoD, ADA / DRDO & the IAF are on one page on this issue.
On TEDBF, it's directly linked with if IN convinces the parties for 3rd AC. Because for the interim I see IN making do with the 40+ Mig29K for Vicky and Vikrant. And it's not like the capital investment in Mig29K is small, so if anyone says that IN will give up them before 30+ years , it's not worth believing. Only way TEDBF can be realised is if IN has 3rd AC approved.
The TEDBF won't arrive before 2030-35 which is approximately around 30 years after the first MiG -29K made it's debut for the IN. By this time we'd definitely have the 3rd AC under construction - the decision for which I believe we'd take after 2025 in which case, we certainly won't be intending 4th Gen or 4.5 Gen Aircrafts to fly off it or at least be the central piece around which we build our Air power for the 3rd AC which in turn means we'd probably go in for a combination of whatever 5th Gen Carrier based FA is available with the TEDBF . What that's going to be isn't clear as of today.
As far as the MiG -29K goes, let's just say it's been a disappointment & leave it at that. It won't be missed unless whatever replaces it is as bad or worse.
