Indian Economy : News,Discussions & Updates

Narendra Modi stokes divisions in the world’s biggest democracy

Davos is when India use to get some positive headlines, investment destination and emerging economy but thanks to modern day Chanakyas India is facing a strong misinformation campaign with all kinds of headlines.

1st Chanakya burnt bridges with moderate left to go full 'shashtang' to Trump, yet couldn't get a thing.

2nd Chanakya instantly gave opportunity to fringe left to go bonkers, opeds, opinions, news, fabricated news, from top most publications. You must be crazy to think nobody reads them or they don't have any impact at all.

Let this CAA be a lesson why incompetent/willfully incompetent fools be not given decision making powers. I don't think there is bigger fool in India than Rahul Gandhi but I doubt even he would have fkd it up so bad. Shah you beauty, must be preserved and displayed in museum somewhere in India(or whatever is left of it by the time you are done with it).


Only consolation is watching that out of depth monkey gasping for breath, jumping up and down at Davos, trying to present Pakistan as some kind of civil country.
 
How an army of data labellers are behind India's AI boom

Indian AI sector is growing by leaps and bounds and data labelling business is expected to be valued at $1.2 billion by 2023.

23-01-2020
By Roshni Majumdar

The AI boom has been a long time coming, and it may finally be here. In Noida’s Sector 2, just 30 minutes from the heart of Delhi on a good day, at Cogito Tech, a data-annotation firm, hundreds of young girls and boys are patiently using digital tools to identify and label the images on their screens. They’re mostly graduates from universities around Delhi, and they’re working in tandem with an American company, Labelbox, which creates data labelling software for companies looking to train their machines to perform AI-related tasks.

And they aren’t the only ones. In Kerala’s Palakkad district, Mujeeb Kolasseri, founder of Infolks, a firm that labels images for companies in the United States and Europe, is constantly thinking about how to hire more college graduates from his village. Mujeeb had long been an independent 'crowdworker' for Mechanical Turk  —  Amazon’s crowdsourced marketplace, where dozens of remote workers annotate data (among other things) for very little money. In 2016, he founded his own company, beginning with just six people. Today, he employs 350, and in the next two years, hopes to take that number to more than 2,000.

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Data labellers at work in Infolks. (Photo: Mujeeb Kolasseri)

But what, exactly, is data labelling ? It is the manual classification of information  —  labelling  —  which allows machines to make sense of the data and perform the task it has been given. Since machines have no understanding of the natural world, humans have to 'teach' them to recognise patterns by giving them data that has already been labelled. Labelling some kinds of data is easy  —  when you mark an email as important on Gmail, you’re teaching Google to recognise the kind of emails that are important to you. Going forward, Google will flag similar emails for you. Other tasks are more complex  —  say, for example, when a company is looking to develop AI for autonomous vehicles. In this case, a car has to be taught what a tree or a person looks like. This process — which involves humans — is known as humans-in-the-loop machine learning.

Consider an example to gain a sense of why humans are so crucial in the process. In 2016, Russian operatives had bought a large number of political ads on Facebook, paying for them in Russian rubles. The scale of this effort was massive  —  Russian-backed content directly reached nearly 126 million Americans, about half those eligible to vote. But Facebook algorithms  —  that can process billions of data points  —  entirely missed the signal. They weren’t able to connect the dots between rubles being spent to buy American political ads and foreign interference in the US election. How did this happen ? Part of the reason for this was that the algorithms had not been taught to look for such interference, while another reason was the fact that algorithms were working with information that involved lots of unlabelled, or noisy, data floating on the platform.

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Facebook algorithms entirely missed the signal when Russian operatives bought political ads on the site that reached millions of American voters. (Representational image: Reuters)

That is why human data labellers are so important  — they not only provide machines with labelled data but provide the machine with just the right amount of data. In the world of big data, there is always going to be more data. What becomes so important then is, labelling the right data. “If you don’t find a grey shirt in Flipkart, you can go to Myntra,” explains Ajinkya Malasane, co-founder of Playment, a data-labelling platform based out of Bengaluru. In other words, humans are the only ones who can provide companies with high-quality, or accurate, data sets. There are numbers to prove that the sector is growing.

Over the past five years, the Indian AI sector accounted for $150 million worth of investments in more than 400 companies. Though this number pales in comparison to comparable investment in the US or Europe  —  which runs into the billions  —  the domestic AI sector is growing by leaps and bounds. Investment really kicked off after 2016, when the figure nearly doubled from $44 million that year to $77 million in 2017. Data analytics firms were a major component of the 1,200 new tech startups in the country in 2018. Data labelling business is expected to reach $1.2 billion by 2023. Plus, AI has the potential to add $957 billion to India’s economy in 2035 if the sector receives the right kind of support.

Industry leaders and the youth are holding out hope for that result. Many college graduates at Cogito Tech are entirely happy with their jobs, hoping to scale up their skills to meet the demands of future work. If the sector does see the kind of support it is hoping for, there is room for a new kind of AI revolution in India that Malasane calls “Tech 3.0.” Rohan Agrawal, the founder and CEO of Cogito Tech, who formerly ran a BPO, agrees. "At least we’re going to eliminate the whole ordeal of talking to people who’re yelling at us," he says, referring to the hellish work scenario at call centres. Data labellers are quietly teaching machines to do the work instead, and they’re perfectly happy.

How an army of data labellers are behind India's AI boom
 
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Animan Thakur (@thakurkehaath) Tweeted:
On India's job problem in small town UP/Bihar/Jharakhand -although, this can apply to many states. A thread based on ground experience:

1. There are many degree holders who don't have jobs. Some even have PhDs on paper. Why then are they not able to find jobs? ( )

On the relentless quest & unrelenting perils of a secure government job for a small town North Indian from the Hindi belt & the grim consequences.

THREAD!!
 
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Animan Thakur (@thakurkehaath) Tweeted:
On India's job problem in small town UP/Bihar/Jharakhand -although, this can apply to many states. A thread based on ground experience:

1. There are many degree holders who don't have jobs. Some even have PhDs on paper. Why then are they not able to find jobs? ( )

On the relentless quest & unrelenting perils of a secure government job for a small town North Indian from the Hindi belt & the grim consequences.

THREAD!!
That's true, very true, thought of writing this myself sometime back, know countless number of people doing exactly that. Read last 3 tweets too, if ill informed public is committing mistake it becomes government responsibility to educate them and not let them at their own. Gross mismanagement of human resources.
 
That's true, very true, thought of writing this myself sometime back, know countless number of people doing exactly that. Read last 3 tweets too, if ill informed public is committing mistake it becomes government responsibility to educate them and not let them at their own. Gross mismanagement of human resources.
We have such a huge demographic dividend potential yet we are squandering it. Many competent people just choose to leave the country
 
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India’s Economy Seems to Be Shaking Off a Slump

By Anirban Nag
January 25 2020, 9:46 AM

(Bloomberg) -- India’s economy appears to be shaking off a slump, as activity in the services and manufacturing sectors expanded for a second straight month in December.

The needle on a gauge measuring so-called animal spirits signaled the economy may be taking a turn for the better, as five of the eight high-frequency indicators tracked by Bloomberg News came in stronger last month. The dial was last at the current position in August.

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“Animal spirits” is a term coined by British economist John Maynard Keynes to refer to investors’ confidence in taking action, and the gauge uses the three-month weighted average to smooth out volatility in the single-month numbers.

The nascent recovery would need a helping hand, with expectations building that Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman will provide some stimulus when she presents the budget on February 1. Official forecasts show the economy is set to expand at 5% in the year ending March 2020 -- the weakest pace in more than a decade.

Here are the details of the dashboard :

Business Activity :

The dominant services index rose to the highest level in five months in December as improving new work orders helped boost activity. The seasonally adjusted Markit India Services PMI index climbed to 53.3 from 52.7 in November, helping post a strong end to the calendar year.

India’s manufacturing PMI also rose -- to 52.7 from 51.2 a month ago -- boosted by the fastest increase in new orders since July. A reading above 50 means expansion while anything below that signals contraction.

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The uptick in business confidence was accompanied by a rise in inflationary pressures, the survey showed. That trend may keep monetary policy makers from resuming interest-rate cuts anytime soon, leaving most of the heavy-lifting to boost growth with the government.

“The relative stability in macro indicators over the past two months suggests that the worst is behind, but the recovery is likely to be prolonged,” said Teresa John, an economist at Nirmal Bang Equities Pvt. in Mumbai. “Still, sluggish growth and rising inflation indicate that India may well remain in stagflation for most of 2020.”

Exports :

Exports remained a laggard, falling 1.8% in December from a year ago. The drag was mainly because of a fall in export of engineering goods, which constitute a third of India’s non-oil exports.

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Capital goods imports continued to contract and was lower by 16.5% year-on-year in December after a 22% drop in November. This was the seventh consecutive month of continuous decline, underscoring the weakness in the capex cycle, according to IDFC First Bank.

Consumer Activity :

Weakness in demand for passenger vehicles persisted, with local sales falling 1.2% in December from a year ago, according to the Society of Indian Automobile Manufacturers. That capped the worst yearly passenger vehicle sales on record. A Nielsen study on demand for fast-moving consumer goods showed volume growth dropped to 3.5% in the last quarter of 2019 from 3.9% in the same period of 2018.

Funding conditions held out hope, showing considerable improvement in December, according to the Citi India Financial Conditions Index. Credit growth remained tardy though, with demand for loans rising at a slower 7.1% pace from a year ago compared with a nearly 8% growth in November.

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Industrial Activity :

Industrial output rose for the first time in four months in November. The pick up was broad-based, led by mining, manufacturing and electricity. Mining and manufacturing, in particular, posted a second month of sequential growth. Production of consumer goods also rose after a few months of contraction. The index of eight core infrastructure industries, which feeds into the index of industrial production, however declined 1.5% in November from a year ago -- the fourth straight month of contraction. That was on account of shrinking production of electricity, steel, coal, natural gas and crude oil. Both the core sector and industrial output numbers are reported with a one-month lag.

India’s Economy Seems to Be Shaking Off a Slump
 
Gold imports decline 6.77% to $23 bn during Apr-Dec 2019: Govt data
Gold imports, which have a bearing on the current account deficit (CAD), fell 6.77 per cent to $23 billion during the April-December period of the current financial year, according data from the commerce ministry.
Imports of the yellow metal stood at $24.73 billion in the corresponding period of 2018-19.

The decline in gold imports has helped in narrowing the country's trade deficit to $118 billion during the period, against $148.23 billion a year ago.

Gold imports had been recording a negative growth since July this year. However, it recorded positive growth in October and November last year, only to contract by about 4 per cent in December last year.

India is the largest importer of gold, which mainly caters to the demand of the jewellery industry.
In volume terms, the country imports 800-900 tonne of gold annually.

To mitigate the negative impact of gold imports on trade deficit and CAD, the government increased the import duty on the metal to 12.5 per cent from 10 per cent.

Industry experts claim that businesses in the sector are shifting their manufacturing bases to neighbouring countries due to this high duty.

The Gems and Jewellery Export Promotion Council (GJEPC) has asked for a reduction in import duty to 4 per cent.
Gems and jewellery exports declined 6.4 per cent to $27.9 billion in April-December this fiscal.

The country's gold imports dipped about 3 per cent in value terms to $32.8 billion in 2018-19.

The CAD narrowed to 0.9 per cent of gross domestic product or $6.3 billion in July-September 2019 from 2.9 per cent or $19 billion in corresponding period last year, according to the RBI data.
Gold imports decline 6.77% to $23 bn during Apr-Dec 2019: Govt data
 
Warehousing sector to add 40 million sq ft space across top 8 cities this year
Warehousing sector to add 40 million sq ft space across top 8 cities this year: Report


In 2019, the total supply of warehousing space was 37.94 million sq ft while the absorption stood at 33 million sq ft.
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Last year, Mumbai witnessed an addition of 5.7 million sq ft while Delhi added 8.1 million sq ft. (File photo: IE)
As warehousing is fast becoming an integral part of integrated logistics network due to technological advancement and the reform-led policy measures, the sector is expected to add around 40 million sq ft space across the top eight cities this year, a recent survey said.

According to the study by global property consultant Savills, warehousing space absorption across eight cities like Mumbai, Pune, Chennai, Bengaluru, Hyderabad, Ahmedabad, Delhi and Kolkata, is expected rise to 35 million sq ft in 2020.

In 2019, the total supply of warehousing space was 37.94 million sq ft while the absorption stood at 33 million sq ft.

“Warehousing industry in India has come a long way and it’s going to continue to mature as a favourable real estate asset class. The sector has witnessed a massive participation from institutional investors and developers amid raising demand from across the sector like ecommerce, retail, FMCG, 3PL (third-party logistics) , cold storage, pharma and manufacturing,” Savills India Managing Director, Industrial Warehousing and Logistics Srinivas N said.

As per the study, Mumbai and Delhi are expected to see a significant addition of around 8 million sq ft each in 2020, followed by Bengaluru and Kolkata.

Last year, Mumbai witnessed an addition of 5.7 million sq ft while Delhi added 8.1 million sq ft.

“Delhi NCR, Bengaluru and Mumbai followed by Kolkata will be the front runners in absorbing majority of occupiers since these are sourcing and consumption hubs,” the report said.

As per the study, Pune and Chennai will lead in servicing manufacturing clients’ needs, followed by Delhi-NCR and Ahmedabad.

“Government initiatives like make In India, GST, FDI policy, corporate tax reduction, improved infrastructure of road, port, rail and airports has and will continue to impress the growth,” Srinivas said.

He further said that compliance, quality and improved specifications offerings will be the need of the hour with growing requirements at tier-II locations from organised developers.

Srinivas added that tier-II locations like Guwahati, Coimbatore, Lucknow, Jaipur, Patna, Bhubaneshwar, Ludhiana, Vapi, Nagpur and Vizag / Vijayawada cumulatively will see a total addition in excess of 6 million sq ft of additional absorption.

Last year, manufacturing sector absorbed around 6 million sq ft pan-India, while e-commerce and 3PL leased around 20 million sq ft. SMEs and electronic components manufacturers and auto sector leased significantly in few cities.

“It’s also important to note that there is in excess of 800 million sq ft of Grade ‘C’ and Grade ‘D’ stock across India which will start migrating to Grade ‘A’ and ‘B’ over the next 3 to 5 years,” Srinivas added.
Warehousing sector to add 40 million sq ft space across top 8 cities this year: Report
 
India’s most abused taxpayers

January 30, 2020, 6:00 am IST
By Rohit Saran
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Salary-earners pay highest per cent of income in taxes, get little in return and see their tax rupee get used for votes

‘Social equity in India means that a clerk earning Rs 6,000 each month in Mumbai must pay income tax but a strawberry farmer in Punjab’s Gurdaspur netting Rs 1.5 lakh every month should enjoy tax-free status.’ Twenty years ago, a journalist wrote this in anguish when that year’s budget raised the top rate of income tax just two years after it was cut to an all-time low of 30%.

The journalist is now a BJP MP, but the irony in his statement has only worsened in two decades. Senior clerks still pay income tax and farmers, however rich, don’t. And the effective peak rate of income tax has shot up by 13 percentage points above 30% that P Chidambaram had cut it to in 1997.

Honesty isn’t the best policy: How much tax you pay on income depends less on how much you earn and more on how much you can hide – or show income as non-taxable. The salary-earning class is the most disadvantaged because 100% of income tax is taken away even before the salary reaches them. It is also not allowed certain tax-free expenses that non-salary earners are allowed.

The 2018-19 budget speech noted that an average salary earner pays three times more income tax (Rs 76,306) than a non-salaried taxpayer (Rs 25,753). If non-salary income earners pay even 70% of what the salaried class pays government earnings would go up by Rs 50,000 crore a year. Finance ministers down the years have failed to correct this anomaly, surrendering to a system that penalises the honest.

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The differential treatment of the two classes of taxpayers is not unique to India, but the large and widening gap in tax liability between the two is. With passing years, the system is getting more skewed. In the last 15 years, the number of people filing tax returns has grown four times faster than the number of taxpayers.

A large section of these ‘filers-but-not-payers’ is non-salary income earners. In fact, as a percentage of population, number of income taxpayers has been falling indicating, among other things, even heavier burden on the salaried class.

All tax, no service: There are countries with income tax rates higher than India’s. But taxpayers in those countries have access to services that have either never existed or have ceased to exist in India. Public education – from school to college – and public healthcare have disappeared from the lives of the urban middle class. Private expenditure on education and health in India is one of the highest in the world – this is in a country where the richest 10% of the population is poorer than the US’s poorest 10%.

Income tax payers are forced to pay for clean water, breathable air, private security and – now increasingly – road use in the form of toll. The majority of salary earners are in the private sector, and the tax they pay doesn’t entitle them to pension, unemployment support or post-retirement healthcare. The income tax for this class of people is increasingly becoming a forced charity, alienating them from the state.

Countries with high income tax rates also have a much lower rate of indirect taxes than India. Prices of cars, smart TVs, smartphones, laptops are 20% to 80% lower in most countries with higher income tax rates. A back-of-the envelope calculation shows that the buyer of a mid-level car in India has to pay 58% of his total expenses to government (see illustration). If he meets with an accident, government is unlikely to bear the cost of his treatment or provide income support if he loses his job.

One milch cow, many holy cows: The reason why income taxpayers, especially from the salaried class, are being milked again and again is because there are too many holy cows that government refuses to tax. Farmers, even the richest of them, enjoy tax free income. This leads to rampant leakages – an RTI query revealed that in 2012 over 8 lakh individuals declared agriculture income running into crores and paid zero tax on it. Several government panels have advocated taxing agriculture income, but clarity without courage is wasted wisdom.

Lawyers, doctors and coaching centres – among the most profitable and fast-growing professions – are exempt from service tax. Then there are MPs who enjoy privileges no taxpayer does – they decide their own salary, and tax on their income is not deducted at source. Much of their income is in the form of tax-free perks – 34 free flights a year with companion, free limitless first class train travel, free healthcare, rent-free house, Rs 20,000 monthly pension. None of this is to be grudged if MPs were to ensure that their paymasters – the taxpayers – are getting the basic services they are paying taxes for. But that is hardly the case.

One possible reason income taxpayers are uncared for is that they don’t matter as voters. Only 7% of Indian voters pay income tax. In Norway, 100% and in the US 70% voters are income taxpayers. Last year’s, and Nirmala Sitharaman’s first, Economic Survey did some sweet talk. Stating that “perceptions of fairness suffer when the employee class is forced to contribute disproportionately to income taxes while the class of self-employed gets away paying minimal taxes,” it proposed a few remedial baby steps. They included providing special conveniences to income taxpayers, like faster lanes at immigration counters and quicker passport issuance.

If and when the finance minister begins to walk this talk she can do another small favour. She can request the tax authorities to stop emailing certificate of appreciation to taxpayers. Given the outright taxpayer bias, these emails aren’t even worth the energy used in mailing them.

DISCLAIMER : Views expressed above are the author's own.

India’s most abused taxpayers
 
Nirmala Sitharaman’s revival efforts bear fruit; India’s quarterly growth faster than G7, BRICS

By: Samrat Sharma | Published: January 29, 2020 4:53:21 PM

Among the BRICS and G7 countries, India is likely to have recorded the fastest rate of quarterly growth in the October-December quarter.

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India is expected to retain the top spot in the January-March quarter as well.

Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman’s efforts to revive the economy have started to appear on the ground, helping to regain the lost momentum of the GDP. “A series of government stimulus measures, coupled with a low-interest-rate environment, are likely to spur demand and investment in 2020 and to produce a rebound in full-year real GDP growth, to 6.1% (up from an estimated 4.9% in 2019),” said a report by the Economist Intelligence Unit. Surprisingly, among the BRICS and G7 countries, India is likely to have recorded the fastest rate of quarterly growth in the October-December quarter. India is expected to retain the top spot in the January-March quarter as well.

Over the December-ending quarter, India’s real GDP growth has been estimated to have grown by 1.6 per cent on-quarter and is estimated to grow further at 1.9 per cent in the current quarter. However, it is also said that the strong headline figure was artificially boosted by the dismal performance of the Indian economy in the previous quarter amid weak consumer sentiment and tepid investment.

Also Read: Year-long slowdown may not last longer; early indicators show green shoots of economic revival

Due to sluggish global growth in 2019, the EUI report also estimates that the previous quarter economic performance was weak across the G7 and BRICS countries. The slow global growth has been attributed to the combined effect of global trade tensions, a sharp deceleration in real GDP growth in the US, China and India, renewed volatility in emerging markets, and political uncertainty in a number of European countries.

Meanwhile, India’s year-long slowdown may not continue for long as early indicators suggest a recovery in the growth. 11 of the 16 non-financial indicators such as the output of passenger vehicles, commercial vehicles, motorcycles, CIL and refinery output, hydroelectricity generation, non-oil merchandise exports, and rail freight traffic recorded an improved on-year performance in Q3 FY2020, compared to the previous quarter. Credit Rating agency ICRA has also anticipated a pickup in the real GVA and GDP growth.

Nirmala Sitharaman’s revival efforts bear fruit; India’s quarterly growth faster than G7, BRICS
 
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