Indian Economy : News,Discussions & Updates

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Debt fueled stimulus incoming. So much for criticizing UPA stimulus during recession 08.:cautious:
Are you suggesting an equivalence between both these periods? We're yet to exit the present crisis. We don't even know in what shape & when will we emerge once this is over. What's wrong with you? Do you have any better ideas?
 
Are you suggesting an equivalence between both these periods? We're yet to exit the present crisis. We don't even know in what shape & when will we emerge once this is over. What's wrong with you? Do you have any better ideas?
Yes, I am. Both are borrowing. We can't point out the parallel because we are not out of the crisis? Doesn't this govt have any good ideas other than repackaging Manmohan era ideas? Why not sovereign bonds? @Nilgiri
 
Yes, I am. Both are borrowing. We can't point out the parallel because we are not out of the crisis? Doesn't this govt have any good ideas other than repackaging Manmohan era ideas? Why not sovereign bonds? @Nilgiri
Apart from borrowing, what else do you suggest? I doubt our credit ratings are good enough for sovereign bonds. Look at the fiscal deficit we're carrying. This crisis has worsened it by a wide margin.
 
Yes, I am. Both are borrowing. We can't point out the parallel because we are not out of the crisis? Doesn't this govt have any good ideas other than repackaging Manmohan era ideas? Why not sovereign bonds? @Nilgiri

Problem is the worldwide problem....everyone will be competing for liquidity to spark and restart economies...so it has diminishing returns for India to follow this route beyond a point for sure.

That said there is not much else option, how else are you going to inject what you can (afford) to get blood flowing in veins after severe exsanguination and then sedentary period on top?
 
AIIB clears $500-mn loan to support India’s fight against COVID-19
The Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB) has approved funding of $500 million to support India’s efforts to fight the COVID-19 pandemic.

The government and the AIIB on Friday signed a COVID-19 Emergency Response and Health Systems Preparedness Project that would help strengthen India’s public health preparedness. This is the first ever health sector support from the Beijing-headquartered bank to India.

The project will be implemented by the National Health Mission (NHM), the National Centre for Disease Control (NCDC) and the Indian Council of Medical Research (ICMR).

“This new support will cover all States and Union Territories across India and address the needs of infected people, at-risk populations, medical and emergency personnel and service providers, medical and testing facilities, and national and animal health agencies,” the Finance Ministry said in a statement. The project will enable the government slow and limit as much as possible the spread of COVID-19 in India by providing immediate support to enhance disease detection capacities, oxygen delivery systems and medicines among others, it said.

Department of Economic Affairs Additional Secretary Sameer Kumar Khare said “AIIB’s timely assistance will help the government in its efforts to respond to the threat posed by COVID-19 and strengthen the national health systems for preparedness in India.”

DJ Pandian, AIIB Vice-President (Investment Operations), said that building a resilient health system that can effectively treat COVID-19 patients and prevent its spread is the immediate priority, and this funding will address this need and strengthen India’s capacity to effectively manage future disease outbreaks.
 
Two excellent papers :

On economy post COVID-19 :


Medical sector in India, present and future :

 
How states like Bihar and Odisha can leverage Covid into an opportunity

With the right moves, the likes of Bihar and Odisha can leverage the Covid crisis into an opportunity.

By Dinesh Narayanan
Last Updated: May 10, 2020, 09.05 AM IST
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With right moves, states like Bihar and Odisha can leverage the Covid crisis into an opportunity. Pic representative.

A couple of years ago, an economic adviser to the Union government was visiting Hosur and Tiruppur, two key industrial hubs of Tamil Nadu. While Hosur has a variety of industrial units, Tiruppur predominantly is a textile and knitwear hub. But what is common to both is they employ a large number of migrant workers from Bihar, Jharkhand and Odisha - states that are a couple of thousand kilometres away from these industrial centres. Several promoters and industry associations complained that the migrant labour was fickle and unreliable. And costs were rising.

Why not move to states where the migrant labour came from and set up factories and garment units there, the economist asked. That way they could save the costs on two factors of production: land and labour. Why, indeed, were they hanging on to costly industrial townships of the south? The promoters replied that those states were simply not safe enough for industry.

There was no guarantee for their lives, forget capital. They were also too far from their home states for comfort.

Every entrepreneurial decision is made on a cost-benefit analysis and there is always a tipping point from where a business strategy that appeared impractical and risky begins to look appealing.

The disruption caused by the coronavirus pandemic could be one such tipping point, provided the states that supply much of the migrant labour have the foresight and political will to reform their industrial environment. It is evident from many accounts that many migrant workers who have fled to their home states will not return. Even if they do, they would be unwilling to travel very long distances in search of work.

Many of those have picked up shop floor skills, have worked in global supply chains and are familiar with the requirements of the market. This pool of workers would be available in poor and industrially backward states such as Bihar and Jharkhand.

These states are blessed with land and abundant water sources, which are necessary for industry.

In fact, several people who own vast lands in Bihar rue that they would not be able to maintain their inheritance for long. Their children moved to what they saw as the greener pastures of Delhi, Mumbai and London and now have no intention of returning.

This conjunction of the availability of a pool of trained labour, cheap land and socio-economic change offers an opportunity for the third factor - capital - to flow to these largely untapped regions. The senior economist said it was not just conducive, it was imperative that this happens for India's economic prosperity. It would, however, not be possible to convince entrepreneurs and industrialists from the West and the South unless the state governments concerned show the willingness and gumption to sort out law and order.

They would also need to empower local governments so that they can facilitate setting up of industries and offer local support and protection to men and material.

Odisha handed its village heads a district magistrate's powers to help them fight the novel coronavirus. They can be empowered to help in industrialisation as well.

The other essential that state governments need to ensure is reliable power supply. Experience shows that industries would even pay more if quality power is assured to them. Availability of electricity would also help cold storages and food processing, which have tremendous potential in this predominantly farming-dependent region.

Diversification of industry eastwards would not only create jobs but would also fuel demand for services. Companies looking to plug into global supply chains have a string of ports in the Bay of Bengal to choose from. This will ease the burden on the ports of the western seaboard. It would perhaps even make the Modi government's pet project of converting the Ganga into an industrial transport corridor viable.

 
Thank You India: US could reinstate GSP trade benefits in return for HCQ, paracetamol

Amid the Covid-19 crisis, India and the US are discussing a limited trade deal. The two sides are reportedly considering bringing the GSP benefits under this package.


By Nayanima Basu
11 May, 2020 2:58 pm IST
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File photo: PM Narendra Modi and US President Donald Trump during Howdy Modi! event in Houston | ANI Photo

New Delhi:
The Donald Trump administration is likely to reinstate trade benefits for certain Indian imports under its Generalised System of Preferences (GSP) as a gesture of gratitude for the Narendra Modi government’s decision to send hydroxychloroquine (HCQ) and paracetamol to the US amid the Covid-19 pandemic, ThePrint has learnt.

According to a high-level diplomatic source, the bilateral discussion to bring back India under the US trade programme has been ongoing ever since the Trump administration revoked the benefits to New Delhi in June last year. However, the US now believes that these should be restored for India as a “symbolic gesture”.

India’s move to send critical drugs like HCQ and paracetamol for Covid-19 has made the US government realise India’s importance in the global supply chains, said the source. The Modi government’s decision to export HCQ to the US last month had created a row at home.

Until it was removed from the GSP list, India used to get benefits worth around $6 billion — out of the $46 billion worth of goods it exports to the US — by means of zero or reduced tariffs on 2,167 products. The preferential treatment was given mostly to labour-intensive sectors like leather, jewellery and engineering.

“India, especially the Ministry of Commerce and Industry has already done its calculation and said the impact has not been much due to removal of the benefits. But restoring it definitely adds to symbolism. This strengthens the fact that the US-India relationship is stronger than before,” said the source, who did not wish to be named.

GSP as part of trade package ?

According to the sources, the US and India are considering if the restoration of GSP benefits must be done separately or within the limited bilateral trade deal that is being negotiated currently.

“The need for a trade deal, even if a smaller one, is now important for both countries post the pandemic. Officials are in constant discussion over this and reinstatement of the GSP benefits will bring a symbolic significance,” said a second source, on the condition of anonymity.

The US is also considering sending some critical medical devices like ventilators and testing kits as part of “humanitarian aid” to India, the sources said.

India is also engaged with the US to procure RT-PCR (Reverse Transcription–Polymerase Chain Reaction) and rapid antibody test kits, RNA (ribonucleic acid) extraction kits and other medical supplies according to requirements. US companies have expressed interest in supplying to New Delhi, and in some cases, orders have already been placed, Indian Ambassador to the US Taranjit Singh Sandhu had told ThePrint in an interview last month.

Caution about ‘speculation’

Mark Linscott, former assistant US trade representative (USTR) for South and Central Asian Affairs, said, “The bilateral work on Covid-19 was clearly very positive. It could accelerate efforts to get a trade deal, including restoration of India’s GSP benefits…

“I hope a bilateral trade deal is struck soon but the two sides need to work out all the specifics for that. And I expect GSP will have to be part of that trade deal and not done separately,” he said.

Linscott, a senior fellow at think-tank Atlantic Council’s South Asia Center, also cautioned that this could all be a “speculation” building up on both sides even as hard negotiations still need to be done on certain agriculture issues, electronic payment systems and a new digital trade dialogue, among others.

India has already said it does not want to “rush into a trade deal” with the US or negotiate an agreement in a hurry as it is still facing issues arising out of the FTAs signed earlier with other countries.

Both the countries were close to signing a limited trade package in September last year when Prime Minister Narendra Modi visited the US for the UN General Assembly meet. The visit saw Modi and US President Donald Trump show unprecedented bonding at the ‘Howdy Modi’ event. But the deal didn’t work out as differences widened, particularly on information and communication technology imports and medical devices.

A much-awaited visit by US Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer, US’ main trade negotiator, to India also got cancelled in February.

During Trump’s visit to India in February this year for the ‘Namaste Trump’ event, both sides agreed to step up bilateral ties, saying the relationship was now a ‘Comprehensive Global Strategic Partnership’ even as they vowed to sign a “bigger” trade deal.

 
Looks like the government is quite serious , with states amending labour laws to central goverment now coming up with tax holidays i seriously hope we pull this off .



The proposal to give a 10-year full tax exemption to companies making new investment upwards of $500 million is being evaluated by the finance ministry .Another variant of the program will be to provide a four-year tax holiday to companies that invest $100 million or more in labor-intensive sectors such as textiles, food processing, leather, and footwear. A lower corporate tax rate of 10% is proposed for the next six years, the people said. The proposal has to be approved by the finance ministry and, so far, it hasn’t taken a decision