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A good article on India-EU FTA and its impact on geo-economics from a Pakistani professor:
www.asiasentinel.com
EU–India Trade Deal Echoes Beyond Brussels
The end of single-country dependence
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Is Energy Becoming a Buyer’s Market? India Says Yes
February 2, 2026 at 9:30 AM GMT+5:30
By Javier Blas
India is anticipating cheap energy in the coming years. Photographer: Dhiraj Singh/Bloomberg
Among the world’s top energy consumers, no country is more price sensitive than India. Few are as vocal in airing their misery when costs surge. Currently, though, everyone in New Delhi feels rather relaxed. Ask government officials and industry executives, many are convinced oil, gas and coal have become a buyer’s market — perhaps for good.
The sentiment echoes the reality of the market. Oil prices, for example, have fallen to about $65 a barrel, half the level they reached in 2022 after Russia invaded Ukraine. And that’s in today’s money; in real terms, adjusted for inflation, oil is as cheap as it was in the mid-1980s. Coal and gas prices are also down significantly.
Even given the very human tendency to extrapolate whatever’s happening today into the future, it would be wrong to dismiss New Delhi’s view as wishful thinking. If anything, Indian officials historically have erred on the side of energy pessimism, so their current optimism is notable.
There’s a lot at stake. With a population of almost 1.5 billion, India is already the world’s third-largest energy consumer, behind the US and China. But look at its energy demand on a per capita basis and it ranks 110th among all countries, a sign of the enormous potential for consumption growth as it continues to urbanize and industrialize. Over the next 25 years, the country will account for a third of the increase in world energy consumption, the Indian government says. If that happens, it will increase its share of global demand to 11% from 7% now.
Thus, everything preconditions India to worry about future energy shortages. And yet, the country sees a looming abundance. “The good news is that there’s more, and more, and more energy coming into the global market,” Hardeep Singh Puri, India’s top energy official, told me last week. I asked him if it’s a buyer’s market? “Even if I think that sometimes, I don’t say it,” he said, going on to concede: “There’s an element of a buyer’s market.”
Take his words seriously. Puri, who spent nearly 40 years in his country’s diplomatic service, before becoming petroleum and gas minister nearly five years ago, oversees an industry that buys about 6% of the world’s oil – more than Germany, Italy, France and the UK combined.
With caveats, industry executives from the oil, coal, gas and renewable sectors I spoke to during the annual India Energy Week echoed the sentiment. A few warned about the potential for nasty geopolitical surprises, but most of them saw a wave of relatively cheap energy coming.
Still, don’t mistake their optimism about supply with expectations for eternally low prices. Indian officials know the cost of fossil fuels — particularly oil — will fluctuate. Right now, they’re keeping a nervous eye on the Middle East. At the same time, they’re confident that any spike above $85 a barrel would prove short-lived as it would attract further drilling, notably in the US; likewise, they don’t see prices dropping much lower than $55 a barrel for long, as drilling would slow.
Importantly, cheaper fossil fuels don't necessarily create bargains. For example, the Indian government would like the country to buy more liquefied natural gas, but even though LNG prices have come down 80% from the all-time high reached in 2022, they remain expensive for the country's cost-conscious buyers.
Looking ahead, India is betting that the growth in Chinese demand for fossil fuels will slow dramatically in the next few years, and certainly from 2030, creating room for India to increase its own consumption of oil, gas and coal without straining the global commodity market. At the same time, officials and executives see strong oil supply from the Americas, from Canada to Brazil, and booming production of LNG from the US, Australia and Qatar. In addition, the country hopes that homegrown renewables supply, plus nuclear power, will top up fossil fuels.
It’s early days, but there are signs already in the power market that new low-carbon supply sources are making a dent, with photovoltaic solar panels adding significant amounts of electricity during the daytime. Last year, Indian coal-fired power generation fell for only the third time in 50 years, in part because strong seasonal rains during the annual monsoon translated into higher hydropower generation. “The transition is taking place,” Puri said. “The world of energy is undergoing a fascinating change.”
The risk is that Indian officials and executives could be mistaking a cyclical downturn with a structural change. History teaches that prices go and up down, and buyer’s — or seller’s — markets rarely last beyond a few years.
Still, it’s notable that a country that typically worried about energy shortages and high prices feels confident about a more stable picture in the future. If New Delhi is right, it could be great news for the global economy.
https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/a...website&utm_medium=share&utm_campaign=twitter
February 2, 2026 at 9:30 AM GMT+5:30
By Javier Blas
India is anticipating cheap energy in the coming years. Photographer: Dhiraj Singh/Bloomberg
Among the world’s top energy consumers, no country is more price sensitive than India. Few are as vocal in airing their misery when costs surge. Currently, though, everyone in New Delhi feels rather relaxed. Ask government officials and industry executives, many are convinced oil, gas and coal have become a buyer’s market — perhaps for good.
The sentiment echoes the reality of the market. Oil prices, for example, have fallen to about $65 a barrel, half the level they reached in 2022 after Russia invaded Ukraine. And that’s in today’s money; in real terms, adjusted for inflation, oil is as cheap as it was in the mid-1980s. Coal and gas prices are also down significantly.
Even given the very human tendency to extrapolate whatever’s happening today into the future, it would be wrong to dismiss New Delhi’s view as wishful thinking. If anything, Indian officials historically have erred on the side of energy pessimism, so their current optimism is notable.
Global Energy Prices Have Plunged
The IMF fossil fuel index is today at a similar level as it was 20 years agoThere’s a lot at stake. With a population of almost 1.5 billion, India is already the world’s third-largest energy consumer, behind the US and China. But look at its energy demand on a per capita basis and it ranks 110th among all countries, a sign of the enormous potential for consumption growth as it continues to urbanize and industrialize. Over the next 25 years, the country will account for a third of the increase in world energy consumption, the Indian government says. If that happens, it will increase its share of global demand to 11% from 7% now.
Thus, everything preconditions India to worry about future energy shortages. And yet, the country sees a looming abundance. “The good news is that there’s more, and more, and more energy coming into the global market,” Hardeep Singh Puri, India’s top energy official, told me last week. I asked him if it’s a buyer’s market? “Even if I think that sometimes, I don’t say it,” he said, going on to concede: “There’s an element of a buyer’s market.”
Take his words seriously. Puri, who spent nearly 40 years in his country’s diplomatic service, before becoming petroleum and gas minister nearly five years ago, oversees an industry that buys about 6% of the world’s oil – more than Germany, Italy, France and the UK combined.
With caveats, industry executives from the oil, coal, gas and renewable sectors I spoke to during the annual India Energy Week echoed the sentiment. A few warned about the potential for nasty geopolitical surprises, but most of them saw a wave of relatively cheap energy coming.
Still, don’t mistake their optimism about supply with expectations for eternally low prices. Indian officials know the cost of fossil fuels — particularly oil — will fluctuate. Right now, they’re keeping a nervous eye on the Middle East. At the same time, they’re confident that any spike above $85 a barrel would prove short-lived as it would attract further drilling, notably in the US; likewise, they don’t see prices dropping much lower than $55 a barrel for long, as drilling would slow.
Importantly, cheaper fossil fuels don't necessarily create bargains. For example, the Indian government would like the country to buy more liquefied natural gas, but even though LNG prices have come down 80% from the all-time high reached in 2022, they remain expensive for the country's cost-conscious buyers.
Fossil Fuels Dominate India's Energy Landscape
Coal remains the backbone of the Asian giant economy, accounting for nearly half of the total energy supply, and 75% of the electricity generationLooking ahead, India is betting that the growth in Chinese demand for fossil fuels will slow dramatically in the next few years, and certainly from 2030, creating room for India to increase its own consumption of oil, gas and coal without straining the global commodity market. At the same time, officials and executives see strong oil supply from the Americas, from Canada to Brazil, and booming production of LNG from the US, Australia and Qatar. In addition, the country hopes that homegrown renewables supply, plus nuclear power, will top up fossil fuels.
It’s early days, but there are signs already in the power market that new low-carbon supply sources are making a dent, with photovoltaic solar panels adding significant amounts of electricity during the daytime. Last year, Indian coal-fired power generation fell for only the third time in 50 years, in part because strong seasonal rains during the annual monsoon translated into higher hydropower generation. “The transition is taking place,” Puri said. “The world of energy is undergoing a fascinating change.”
The risk is that Indian officials and executives could be mistaking a cyclical downturn with a structural change. History teaches that prices go and up down, and buyer’s — or seller’s — markets rarely last beyond a few years.
Still, it’s notable that a country that typically worried about energy shortages and high prices feels confident about a more stable picture in the future. If New Delhi is right, it could be great news for the global economy.
https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/a...website&utm_medium=share&utm_campaign=twitter