Lately it's seemed like Pawan might be helping CBN by diverting the anti-Incumbency vote, which would otherwise go to Jagan. Is this true? Also, what's your prediction in terms of seats?
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Lately it's seemed like Pawan might be helping CBN by diverting the anti-Incumbency vote, which would otherwise go to Jagan. Is this true? Also, what's your prediction in terms of seats?
1) That's a tough one really, I use to think 40+ for BJP but now it's all cloudy with advantage BJP.
2) Yogi's popularity is good, though living in shadows of Modi it's hard (like Rahul Dravid in Sachin) but it's still good, much better and credible than Akhilesh and Maya.
3) On ground voters mostly Modi haters will transfer for sure but district level leadership which is most important for both MLA and MP election will not be cooperative and sabotage is already happening at most seats. It won't create huge dent as most voters look for central leadership but still will make a difference in closely fought election.
Both BSP and SP local leaders know whatever the result Modi is going to be PM and after election most probably because of poor show the alliance will break with unpleasantness. Why to concede the space for potential opponent?
For every ticket from BSP/SP for MP there are at least 3-4 candidates, all strong in normal case, one of them is awarded ticket others are adjusted as district Chief, MLA, MLC or Rajyasabha. Now with only 38 seats contested at 42 seats good number of leaders won't get to fight election, why will they help opponent? More so when they can't be adjusted in other places due to poor showing in assembly elections, So if not sabotage then non cooperation.
When it comes to ticket distribution Mayawati is most corrupt all over the world I guess. She demand hefty sum, absurd amount of money even from dedicated worker or big leader, no one is spared which alienates lot of good leaders as they can't afford it anymore. I have personally seen them going bankrupt as BSP is on losing spree from long long time. This high handedness is romantic when Maya can win but too costly now after multiple devastating losses. Similarly in SP Akhilesh has destroyed the cadre and party beyond repair the lesser I say the better.
Now comes the voting preference, for both SP and BSP core voters (Jatav and Yadav) BJP is 2nd choice and not BSP or SP, this will have effect on seats where they can't find their own party candidate. Both Yadav and Jatav were bitter enemy how much can they accommodate each other is yet to be seen, don't get fooled by by-elections. They may vote reluctantly or BJP or sit home after seeing it won't stop Modi either way. Mostly Yadav will be hesitant to press "Hathi" symbol which haunted them during Maya's rule. I have seen people going to vote for someone but when inside booth looking at symbols and names their sense of loyalty and betrayal overpowers them, happens alot in rural areas.
So you see it's very cloudy with more negatives than positive for alliance. In TV studio it may look 20+20 = 40 but reality is entirely different. I won't be surprised if alliance is routed and analysts still couldn't find the reason for it.
Now comes the Jat Votes, well BJP did a massive favour by not aligning with RLD, it would have spoiled BJP's hard work on jats and a future loss of 8-10 seats as jats would have migrated back to RLD after seeing the revival, for today's sacrifice of 1 or 2 seat they have strongly become jats 1st choice. For every seat majority jats will vote BJP more so when opponent is of BSP except on Ajit Singh's seat and probably his son Jayant, they are split there. Except these 2 seats it's almost a total vote transfer to BJP. Western UP is almost a clean sweep for BJP with only few seats are actually in contest. Eastern UP and other areas too BJP is making good strides by targeting small casts that pile up to massive numbers. Let's see how it all folds out but if I was Mulayam I will be very worried.
The biggest problem in UP is the Jatav vs Yadav+Muslim fight. SP had targeted Jatavs in every place in UP and it was only Bajrang Dal which stood with them. Take the recent case in Agra where the Muslim men barged into the house of a jatav and gang raped his daughter. There is very little chance of Jatavs voting for any SP candidate.
Amazing in-depth response, super informative; thanks a bunch for your time and effort!
This man though a psephologist and on ground good understanding is leaning BJP so take his analysis cautiously, I have found him surprisingly well aware of realities in UP even when he is from South India.
Good informative analysis. However you haven't accounted for the Muslim vote, who stand at 20% of the population. The BSP + SP alliance is banking heavily on them. They have the power to tilt the final tally and they certainly aren't going to vote the BJP or the Congress for obvious reasons. I think they'd play a more decisive role than most credit them for and to a large extent the dichotomy in the alliance between the BSP & the SP reflected in the confusion / mutual antipathy / infighting in their core voting constituents and their cadre will be offset to a great extent by this group voting en masse for the alliance.
UP muslims also have about 20-25% Shia votes. So out of a total of 20% overall muslim votes, a quarter of them always vote for BJP. Now its the 15% muslim vote which has to be divided between congress and SP+BSP.
Point well taken but whether the Shias, as per conventional wisdom, do actually vote en masse for the BJP, is moot, in my opinion, especially in the numbers & percentages you suggest. While there is a proportion who do vote the BJP, it'd be for extraneous reasons like the personal popularity of a candidate in a particular constituency among his voters cutting across religion & caste barriers.
The beef ban has severely dented the economic prospects & prosperity of two communities in particular - the Muslims & the Dalits. This is an all India phenomenon but more pronounced in some parts of India as compared to the others. The entire leather industry that centers like Kanpur is famous for is in shambles. Add to that the frustration of the farmers who can't monetize their old cattle to buy replacements. With the result you see a large number of them being abandoned creating the kind of nuisance which they have in the rural / semi urban areas of UP & which has attracted quite some media attention.
This will definitely impact the vote in India & poorer states like UP for sure.
Been hearing this Muslims will vote tactically to defeat BJP and vote any candidate stronger in position to defeat BJP but so far it is not working. Maybe this time they will get it right as the number of parties is reduced but cant say for sure. Triple Talak, Shias, Congress blunt that edge so out of 19% I think in best case 14-15% will vote for the alliance, this is the extreme best case scenario.
This will look like a formidable vote bank but at the seats where they hold sway their consolidation leads to counter consolidation in Hindus too. Therefore candidate selection on such seats is most important, in other seats where they are around 10% it doesnt really matter much, just another caste group can subside it.
The bare minimum of SP BSP alliance is 10% Yadav + 10% Jatavs + 15% Muslims around 35%, Congress will get separate 8%. That leaves 57% in play for BJP and alliance. In this section, BJP is pacifying every other caste leaving not much to SP BSP. For example, lesser in percentage pan UP but significant in numbers to displace both Yadavs and Muslims combined at few seats, Lodhi vote is strongly for BJP, similarly Gujjars, Nishad, Kushwaha, Shakya and so on they have their own strongholds that upset religious or caste-based calculus. This does not mean Muslim vote wont hurt BJP, it definitely will and they will lose many seats because of it.
Thats true, bowing down to extremists has disappointed younger generation and led to the disillusionment of most ardent supporters of BJP. Stray cattle problem is not small and angers people but for greater good this time they will tolerate but for how long? These clowns disturbing law and order acting like goons in name of religion or sentiments should be cut down to size otherwise in future people may vote BJP out just for this single thing even after doing every other thing right. It is not the case today but will be in future if this is not controlled. Middle-class votes for peace and prosperity these goons disturbs both.
Nearly every muslim of UP has supported ban on illegal butcher khanas. Read about it. Even Azam Khan has supported it as most of the meat being sold from these illegal butcheries was bad meat of sick cattles.
Most Jatavs are going to vote for either BSP candidate or BJP candidate. But other dalit castes and non Yadav OBCs are firmly with BJP.
CBN isnt with anyone as far as i know.
reports saying he setting up k a paul against jagan to split minority vote.
If the CPM wins more than 25 seats, err, make that 20 seats, err, make that 15 seats, I promise to post a pic here of mine with a tonsured head.
In other news, Pappu is contesting from another seat - Wyanad. In other obscure news, Kerala is still the most literate state in India with a literacy of over 90%. In unrelated news, there's still no co relationship established between literacy, knowledge & intelligence, in spite of repeated tests and observations over the millenia .Delhi will bear out the veracity of my statement, since 2015.
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some gems from CPI(M) manifesto
Restore wealth tax for the superrich and introduce inheritance tax.
Corporate profit tax should be increased by increasing statutory rates so that effective tax rates are not low, causing huge loss of revenue.
Immediately halting the process of issuing fresh licenses for banks in the private sector and review of the Banking Regulation (Amendment) Act 2012.
he CPI(M) stands for:
• Reversal of privatisation of defence production sector; immediately taking measures to rescind private participation in defence production; stopping FDI inflows in defence sector; strengthening and expanding State owned defence industry to achieve self reliance in defence.
• Resume dialogue with Pakistan to resolve all outstanding issues including cross-border terrorism; promote people to people relations between India and Pakistan.
• Revising the various defence agreements, like the LEMOA, COMCASA, entered by the current government with the US; withdraw from the Defence Framework Agreement with the US; stopping further steps to enter into military collaboration agreements with the United States; promoting the policy of no foreign military bases in South Asia.
• Revise the Indo-US nuclear agreement; no import of foreign nuclear reactors; pursue self-reliance in civilian nuclear energy based on domestic uranium and thorium reserves.
Jammu & Kashmir
The CPI(M) is committed to:
• A political solution to the Kashmir problem based on maximum autonomy for the state based on the full scope of Article 370 of the Constitution; autonomous set-up to be created with the regions of Jammu, Kashmir and Ladakh being given regional autonomy; oppose all the attempts to remove or review Article 35 (A) of the Constitution.
• Urgently initiating a political process through a dialogue/talks with all concerned parties.
• Strong steps to be taken to prevent excesses by security forces against innocent people; ban use of pellet guns and other lethal weapons on protesters.
• Initiating Confidence Building Measures in Kashmir, by talking to all sections of the society and acting upon their genuine grievances.
• Ensure economic development of the state, focusing particularly on generating employment for the youth and reconstructing the damaged infrastructure.
• Complete withdrawal of AFSPA.
Earmarking 15 per cent of priority sector lending by banks for the Muslims; subsidised credit to be ensured for the self-employed Muslim youth.
• Enacting ‘Prevention of Communal Violence Act’ and ‘Prevention of Minorities Atrocities Act’ in order to prevent the continuing attacks on the Christians and atrocities on Pastors.
• Implementing the recommendations of the Ranganath Mishra Commission report. As an immediate measure all OBC Muslims which form the vast majority of the Muslim community to be included in the OBC quota with specific State wise allocations.
• Establishing a Common School Education System; stop closure or merger of government schools; upgrade government schools on the Kerala model.
Restore wealth tax for the superrich and introduce inheritance tax.
Corporate profit tax should be increased by increasing statutory rates so that effective tax rates are not low, causing huge loss of revenue.
Immediately halting the process of issuing fresh licenses for banks in the private sector and review of the Banking Regulation (Amendment) Act 2012.
he CPI(M) stands for:
• Reversal of privatisation of defence production sector; immediately taking measures to rescind private participation in defence production; stopping FDI inflows in defence sector; strengthening and expanding State owned defence industry to achieve self reliance in defence.
• Resume dialogue with Pakistan to resolve all outstanding issues including cross-border terrorism; promote people to people relations between India and Pakistan.
• Revising the various defence agreements, like the LEMOA, COMCASA, entered by the current government with the US; withdraw from the Defence Framework Agreement with the US; stopping further steps to enter into military collaboration agreements with the United States; promoting the policy of no foreign military bases in South Asia.
• Revise the Indo-US nuclear agreement; no import of foreign nuclear reactors; pursue self-reliance in civilian nuclear energy based on domestic uranium and thorium reserves.
Jammu & Kashmir
The CPI(M) is committed to:
• A political solution to the Kashmir problem based on maximum autonomy for the state based on the full scope of Article 370 of the Constitution; autonomous set-up to be created with the regions of Jammu, Kashmir and Ladakh being given regional autonomy; oppose all the attempts to remove or review Article 35 (A) of the Constitution.
• Urgently initiating a political process through a dialogue/talks with all concerned parties.
• Strong steps to be taken to prevent excesses by security forces against innocent people; ban use of pellet guns and other lethal weapons on protesters.
• Initiating Confidence Building Measures in Kashmir, by talking to all sections of the society and acting upon their genuine grievances.
• Ensure economic development of the state, focusing particularly on generating employment for the youth and reconstructing the damaged infrastructure.
• Complete withdrawal of AFSPA.
Earmarking 15 per cent of priority sector lending by banks for the Muslims; subsidised credit to be ensured for the self-employed Muslim youth.
• Enacting ‘Prevention of Communal Violence Act’ and ‘Prevention of Minorities Atrocities Act’ in order to prevent the continuing attacks on the Christians and atrocities on Pastors.
• Implementing the recommendations of the Ranganath Mishra Commission report. As an immediate measure all OBC Muslims which form the vast majority of the Muslim community to be included in the OBC quota with specific State wise allocations.
• Establishing a Common School Education System; stop closure or merger of government schools; upgrade government schools on the Kerala model.
from congress' website on Rahul Gandhi:
Shri Rahul Gandhi - INC
Rahul Gandhi saw himself pursuing his undergraduate studies at St. Stephen’s College, University of Delhi before moving to Harvard University in the United States of America. Rahul Gandhi shifted to Rollins College in Florida where he graduated with a Bachelor’s Degree in 1994. He went on to pursue and complete his M.Phil from the Trinity College, Cambridge in the year 1995.
the dude never graduated from anything in Harvard University. what does "moving to harvard university" mean?
Shri Rahul Gandhi - INC
Rahul Gandhi saw himself pursuing his undergraduate studies at St. Stephen’s College, University of Delhi before moving to Harvard University in the United States of America. Rahul Gandhi shifted to Rollins College in Florida where he graduated with a Bachelor’s Degree in 1994. He went on to pursue and complete his M.Phil from the Trinity College, Cambridge in the year 1995.
the dude never graduated from anything in Harvard University. what does "moving to harvard university" mean?
