Indian Political Discussion
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Times now opinion poll is giving a figure of 279 seats for NDA ,149 for UPA & 115 for others..BJP Gained in WB.
Also to be noted back in 2014,no poll gave NDA more than 275 seats.
Also to be noted back in 2014,no poll gave NDA more than 275 seats.
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Everyone is giving similar numbers, can all of them be wrong? Maybe but highly unlikely as there is no such issue or leader that can "swing" the election so far, maybe in coming days something of impact can change the situation otherwise these will translate.
Two states that will determine the fate of 2019 – Part 1: The Bengal bonanza
Praveen Patil of 5Forty3.in on West Bengal.
Praveen Patil of 5Forty3.in on West Bengal.
My take BJP-NDA in UP around 55 (error 10%)
Meanwhile, will cast my vote tomorrow to make PM Modi accountable.
Am still waiting for Rs 15 lacs he is reported to have promised, he also gave hope that I will be able to buy land in Leh & Gilgit and promised we won't have to live next to 'mother of all terror'. Not one promise has been kept!!!!
Make him accountable, vote him in. Enough of fooling us.
Meanwhile, will cast my vote tomorrow to make PM Modi accountable.
Am still waiting for Rs 15 lacs he is reported to have promised, he also gave hope that I will be able to buy land in Leh & Gilgit and promised we won't have to live next to 'mother of all terror'. Not one promise has been kept!!!!
Make him accountable, vote him in. Enough of fooling us.
I am a Bhakt but a bhakt who is capable of kicking the chest of his lord should there be a need like Brahmrishi Bhrigu. Modi never promised 15 lacs to anyone. He only made a statement that according to various estimates, if all the blackmoney stashed abroad comes back to India, each person will get 15 lacs. This is not a promise but a plain simple statement. However let us now analyse what he has delivered. Mota mota bolain toh, 5lacs worth of free medical cover, 2 lacs worth of free death cover and 2.5 lacs for pakka house. This makes it 9.5lacs for every person below poverty line. Which govt or PM has delivered so much for poor till date in India?
We also have CMs like Mamta, Khujli, Naidu and Patnaik who have not implemented these schemes in their states to show Modi in bad light. Imagine, I am a Delhiite and pay my local taxes to Delhi govt but the benefits of this medical cover of 5 lacs are enjoyed by people of other states in Delhi hospitals while delhiites can't use this scheme. My taxes and my money is being used for people who do not belong to Delhi. What a shame.
The problem is that the poor of this nation are the biggest haramkhor who do not want work and keep blaming govts for their plight. Where in the world do you get Rice for INR2/kg and wheatgrain for INR3/kg and the people who take this are the same people who want a price for their crop of these commodities with 50% profit. They want INR 20/kg for Wheat/Rice and want to buy the same at INR 2/3/kg. Which bizness in the world has such high profit margins except for drugs and prostitution?
Lastly read and hear the BJP manfesto of 2014 and statements made by Modi. He never promised 2crore jobs every year. He promised Rozgaar for 2 crore every year. People twisted it to say naukri. Go to any village and ask any farmer if he has a job? He will say No but he has an agriculture which fetches him over 5lacs every year. Is that agriculture not his source of income? Is he not self employed? Can we count him as beyrozgaar? The example of making pakoras and selling them was twisted out of context. Who are these people who have taken mudra loans of upto 2lacs to start a biz and the number is over 13 crore people in last five years. If we add these 2lacs to the 9.5lacs calculated above, Modi has already given 11.5lacs to each person out of 15 lacs of the promise that never was.
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These surveyors are just considering total vote percentage of Yadav, Jatav and muslims combined. They are giving advantage to mahagathbandhan on those seats where this combination leads. But reality is quite different. Just take the example of Azamgarh where Yadavs and muslims are majority but the way crowd (specially yadavs) coming for Nirahua( BJP candidate and bhojpuri Actor) may force Akhilesh yadav to withdraw from Azamgarh. Same thing happening in Amethi too. Smriti Irani will win comfortably. And the biggest beneficiaries of Gas connection, electricity connection, houses, toilets, health insurance, etc are Dalits( Jatav) and be sure atleast 50% of them will vote for Modi. All the non Jatav dalits are already BJP voters.
Two states that will determine the fate of 2019 – Part 2: The puzzle of UP
Praveen Patil on UP - He thinks MGB is capped at 30, though still very close on many seats
Praveen Patil on UP - He thinks MGB is capped at 30, though still very close on many seats
My latest take on seats for BJP and NDA. BJP set to repeat its performance of 2014 in Gujrat, Rajsthan, MP, Jharkhand, improve in Bihar, Maharashtra and karnataka. BJP on its own over 290 seats and NDA over 340. This change has happened in last two days after the loot in MP became public. The people are aghast with the way Congress has looted MP within five months. People are quoting a figure of over 1000 crores as the amount looted. I will be least surprised if BJP repeats its seat count in UP.
How is the situation today on group in western UP?
as per reports: Kairana/mujjarfarnagar and Baghpat is tough for BJP. urban jatts are voting for BJP but rural Jatts are voting massively for RLD-SP-BSP.
Brother i am afraid kahi abki baar khel kharab nahi ho jaye?. Last wali lahar nahi h. this time votes are divided with in villages.
Last time the factor was big hype, today is it replaced by confidence in leader. 40-50 is a range I expect and it's not a big loss provided that it reduced 2 big parties to sub regional parties engulfing big chunk of their local leaders. UP BJP will be happy on results day.
BJP won't see a clean sweep under any circumstances. Maximum will be a coalition government with powerful regional partners.
I was speaking about only the eight seats of UP which went to polls today.
IMO, BJP will get majority on its own and with more seats than 2014. If it falls short, it will mop up independents but it will be a majority BJP govt.
Even if they are close to simple majority, give spl status to Andra or Telungana - they will join NDA. Easy for BJP