Indian Political Discussion
- Thread starter Parul
- Start date
Yes center is responsible for the mess in Andhra Pradesh.
First the state bifurcation was not done according the law.
Secondly,centre did not provide the special category status to Andhra or economic help.
Naidu is an efficient CM, but at the same time extremely corrupt. So whatever money comes from center, a fixed amount first goes to his account. He has some grand plans for Amaravati and had taken 30000 acres of land from farmers, with the promise of returning a part of the developed land. He needs billions of dollars for that and central government certainly cannot fund it completely. Moreover, there is no reason for central government to give special status to Andhra where BJP is not going to gain anything, politically and otherwise. During Vajpayee government, Naidu extracted maximum benefit from center and nicely ditched BJP at a later stage. BJP top brass has definitely not forgotten that and will not go out of the way to appease Naidu. They would rather spend that money in a state where BJP can grow/retain it's support base.
Some of my friends have contributed land for Amaravati and now they are concerned about the actual development and delivery timeline. Since people are getting restless and next election is just an year away, Naidu needed to blame somebody and he is precisely doing that.
No matter what BJP do now, Naidu is going to quit NDA before 2019 election. But if BJP comes back to power in 2019, Naidu will be the first in line to join back!!
BJP's back up plans are YSRC in Andhra and TRS in Telengana. TRS was part of NDA earlier and can join again. Even if TRS does not join NDA, it can certainly provide support from outside for the right price
. TRS government is quite popular and going to sweep Telangana, in next election.YSRC might not join NDA before election, but will extend support afterwards. BJP has negligible presence in Andhra and has little to loose as long as either of the parties are willing to come along!!
On the other hand, Naidu's options are quite limited. It cannot join UPA, because Andhra folks are not going to forgive Congress in their life time and the probability of third front coming to power is between zero and nil. Most likely he will come back as CM in 2019, but will find it difficult to run the state if relationship with center turns hostile. Moreover, now BJP is not headed by a poet like Vajpayee ji, whom he can take for a ride. It's Modi and Shah and he better know how to deal with them. A word with Nitish Kumar might help
.
Naidu is an efficient CM, but at the same time extremely corrupt. So whatever money comes from center, a fixed amount first goes to his account. He has some grand plans for Amaravati and had taken 30000 acres of land from farmers, with the promise of returning a part of the developed land. He needs billions of dollars for that and central government certainly cannot fund it completely. Moreover, there is no reason for central government to give special status to Andhra where BJP is not going to gain anything, politically and otherwise. During Vajpayee government, Naidu extracted maximum benefit from center and nicely ditched BJP at a later stage. BJP top brass has definitely not forgotten that and will not go out of the way to appease Naidu. They would rather spend that money in a state where BJP can grow/retain it's support base.
Some of my friends have contributed land for Amaravati and now they are concerned about the actual development and delivery timeline. Since people are getting restless and next election is just an year away, Naidu needed to blame somebody and he is precisely doing that.
No matter what BJP do now, Naidu is going to quit NDA before 2019 election. But if BJP comes back to power in 2019, Naidu will be the first in line to join back!!
BJP's back up plans are YSRC in Andhra and TRS in Telengana. TRS was part of NDA earlier and can join again. Even if TRS does not join NDA, it can certainly provide support from outside for the right price
YSRC might not join NDA before election, but will extend support afterwards. BJP has negligible presence in Andhra and has little to loose as long as either of the parties are willing to come along!!
On the other hand, Naidu's options are quite limited. It cannot join UPA, because Andhra folks are not going to forgive Congress in their life time and the probability of third front coming to power is between zero and nil. Most likely he will come back as CM in 2019, but will find it difficult to run the state if relationship with center turns hostile. Moreover, now BJP is not headed by a poet like Vajpayee ji, whom he can take for a ride. It's Modi and Shah and he better know how to deal with them. A word with Nitish Kumar might help
Very detailed and informative breakdown, thank you. I had a feeling that BJP wouldn't randomly spite an ally in an important state like that for no reason at all. And as you have shown, things are far more complex than they appear on the surface.
Also, while it's known that Naidu and Jagan don't see eye to eye, is there anything to stop BJP from taking support from both (maybe an open alliance with Naidu, and covert support in Parliament from Jagan, or something along those lines).
A last question, is TRS more or less a secret ally of BJP, providing support in most cases while occasionally charting its own course?
Last edited:
It's possible to get support from both just like BJP did during President's election.
Some time back Jagan gave a statement that he is willing to support BJP if Andhra is given special status( Condition is just hogwash) and this actually pissed TDP off. BTW, the infamous Reddy bothers of Bellary and Jagan are business partners. So you know how it works ?.
BJP has some presence in Telngana and they want to improve their support base. That's why they openly can't support TRS or have a tie up with them. Telangana has a sizable Muslim population and TRS does not want to give any scope to AIMIM by joining NDA. That's why you see every now and then KCR and Amit Shah shouting at each other ?. Otherwise it's business as usual.
These election in North East is going down the wire. Too close to call even now. BJP has gained a lot but looks like a little short.
It's 28-28 each in Tripura & first round of counting hasn't been completed. Hope BJP wins this state.
Exact numbers really don't matter, as long as BJP finishes within striking range in each state (including allies) - they'll be able to cobble together a majority sooner or later. Whether they have to do it Manipur style or Arunachal style.
Consequences of BJP win in Tripura:
i) Set back to Yechury in the Party.
ii) Power shift to Karat faction.
iii) Less pandering to Congress by CPM.
iv )(Extreme case: Bengal+Tripura unit might split from rest of CPM )
If IV happens, BJP grows in Bengal!
i) Set back to Yechury in the Party.
ii) Power shift to Karat faction.
iii) Less pandering to Congress by CPM.
iv )(Extreme case: Bengal+Tripura unit might split from rest of CPM )
If IV happens, BJP grows in Bengal!
Tripura and Nagaland seems to be going to BJP, Meghalaya seems to be going to Congress led alliance.
. Andhra folks are really pissed off with BJP Actually in Meghalaya, it could be NPP led alliance. It's Congress vs everybody else.
Starting from railways to highways, BJP did deliver in north east and the election results are showing that!!